Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the old-and-improved Albert Pujols, Mike Trout’s homer streak, the White Sox winning, Elvis Andrus making the A’s pay, James Karinchak’s inconclusive hair inspection, the Dodgers prematurely celebrating a clinching (and the concept of clinch creep), the puzzle of Cody Bellinger, and the retrospective puzzle of Edwin Díaz’s 2019, plus followups (53:48) on Carlos Correa, bigger bases, and shifting, listener emails (1:02:17) about bigger baseballs and/or bats, and a Past Blast (1:18:53) from 1902.

Audio intro: David Bowie, “Saviour Machine”
Audio outro: Fiona Apple, “Extraordinary Machine”

Link to hitting leaders since 8/10
Link to Stathead on big platoon splits
Link to story on Pujols and 697
Link to Pujols’ rolling wRC+
Link to Reddit thread on Pujols homers
Link to Jay Jaffe on Trout
Link to Trout HR streak story
Link to story on Andrus vs. A’s
Link to team SS wRC+ since 8/17
Link to TLR story
Link to Ben Clemens on Karinchak
Link to Rob Arthur on spin
Link to story on Dodgers mistake
Link to Reddit thread on Dodgers clinch
Link to Poscast episode on clinching
Link to Dan S. on Bellinger
Link to Eric Stephen tweet
Link to 2019 EW episode on Díaz
Link to Petriello’s shifting thread
Link to Rob Arthur on shifting
Link to EW listener emails database
Link to story about old bat sizes
Link to Eno Sarris on bats
Link to 1902 story source
Link to Hoy vs. Taylor SABR story
Link to Hoy’s SABR bio
Link to info on Hoy’s nickname
Link to Taylor’s SABR bio
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter

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Back in April, 23 of our writers and contributors made predictions about the 2022 season. When guessing who would be the AL Rookie of the Year, nine different players were named, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodríguez leading the pack. Not found among those nine names was the starting shortstop for the Astros, a rookie faced with the difficult task of replacing incumbent Carlos Correa, who had gone to the Twins. Jeremy Peña wasn’t pegged as a ROY frontrunner, but for much of the early season, he looked like a sudden superstar. However, he’s struggled offensively in recent months, raising some questions about whether the real Peña is the player with the .878 OPS through mid-May, the one with a .586 OPS since the All-Star Game, or somewhere in the middle.

Back in May, Witt, the preseason favorite, wasn’t even in the top 15; Rodríguez only put up a .544 OPS over April; and Adley Rutschman was days away from even debuting in the majors. While Peña wasn’t making Astros fans actually forget about Correa, he certainly did his best to alleviate any lingering worries about their former franchise building block heading to the AL Central. But since May 17, he has seen his control over the AL leaderboard disappear:

That’s not to say that Peña hasn’t continued to be a solid overall player, but his largest contributions in recent months have been with leather rather than wood. With his range measured at five runs above average at shortstop by Statcast’s RAA and a total of nine runs over all facets of defense by our estimate, he hasn’t disappointed defensively, which has enabled him to remain a legitimate starter even with his offense dropping to disappointing levels. But he’s a far more exciting player with his spring offense, so what went wrong there? Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Friday night, umpire Ted Barrett got up close and personal with James Karinchak:

No, Barrett wasn’t looking for hair care tips, or acting out an Herbal Essences commercial. He was checking for foreign substances at the behest of Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. Though he ruffled around to the best of his ability, Barrett didn’t find anything definitive. Karinchak made it back to the dugout with a narrow lead and his pitching eligibility intact, though his dignity may have been affected.

Baldelli’s accusation wasn’t some off-the-cuff act of pettiness. Karinchak has been at the sticky center of controversy ever since the league cracked down on pine tar, Spider Tack, sunscreen/rosin blends, and whatever other tacky options players were using to increase spin. Stricter enforcement of existing rules started at the beginning of June last year; take a look at Karinchak’s spin-velocity ratio and raw fastball spin rate and you can clearly see when things changed:

Not coincidentally, Karinchak’s results slipped at the same time. He’d been an unhittable, fire-breathing, back-of-the-bullpen monster since reaching the majors. From June 1, 2021 onwards, however, he posted a 5.40 ERA and a 5.41 FIP, and got demoted to the minors at the end of August. The fall from grace was swift, and seemed obviously related to the change in foreign substance enforcement. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a strange season for Mike Trout, one that’s featured a hot start, an epic slump that accompanied the worst losing streak in franchise history, and a diagnosis of a long-term back injury followed by an absence of 30 games. The good news is that since returning to activity on August 19, he’s gradually recovered his form, and this past week he set a career best by homering in six straight games.

Trout began his streak on September 4 with an eighth-inning homer off the Astros’ Brandon Bielak — the only run the Angel scored in a 9-1 loss — but his next three came against the Tigers (Tyler Alexander, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Will Vest), all in wins. He continued the streak with a homer off the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. in a loss on Friday night, but his three-run second-inning shot off José Urquidy on Saturday helped power the Halos to a victory.

In the annals of Halos history, that last home run lifted Trout past Bobby Bonds, who homered in five straight games for the Angels from August 2–7, 1977. The streak additionally pushed Trout past the Rangers’ Corey Seager (July 8-12) for the longest of this year. Trout had already surpassed his personal best of homers in four straight games, set in 2017 (May 12–15) and matched in ’19 (April 4–7). Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we at FanGraphs came up with a fun idea: we simulated Aaron Judge’s remaining games a million times to figure out if and when he’s likely to hit some milestone home runs: numbers 60, 61, and 62. At the time, the takeaway was clear: Judge was most likely to hit each of those milestone home runs during the Yankees’ series in Toronto on September 26–28.

Since that article was published, Judge has played six games and hit only one home run. That changed the odds significantly. More specifically, per my simulation, here are his odds of reaching at least 60, 61, or 62 homers, both now and six games ago:

Read the rest of this entry »

After more than a century of a deistic laissez-faire attitude toward the sport, Major League Baseball made a remarkable announcement on Friday: Next year, for the first time, baseball will have a clock. The introduction of a pitch clock at the highest level of the game is merely one gourd in a cornucopia of rule changes approved late last week by the league’s competition committee, but it could revolutionize the sport. You can find the full list here, but rather than delve into the minutiae, I want to give a brief précis of the most important highlights and deliver a remarkable conclusion. Read the rest of this entry »

The English Premier League postponed this weekend’s slate of games following the death of Queen Elizabeth on Friday. Some of you may not have known that — soccer isn’t everyone’s cup of tea — but at the same time, a lot of you did. For many FanGraphs readers, pouring a cup of coffee and watching a Saturday or Sunday-morning match is part of your routine. More often than not, it’s as a supporter of a particular Premier League team.

Brad Miller does exactly that. An ardent Manchester City fan, the Texas Rangers infielder “dove into European soccer” head-first while on the injured list a handful of years ago. What started as a diversion has turned into a passion. Miller not only keeps a keen eye on Premier League and Champions League matches, he assesses strategies and follows transfer rumors.

Style of play is a big reason he adopted Man City.

“They’re obviously really good, and I feel kind of bad admitting that,” Miller said of his initial attraction. “But they’re also a well-oiled machine. There was a documentary on Amazon, ‘All or Nothing,’ where they followed the team. That definitely had me intrigued, just watching the way they play.

“I kind of compare them a little bit to the Dodgers,” continued Miller. “They have a great market, great financial backing, and also a great infrastructure — their player-development system, scouting, medical staffs, and all that. The haven’t poured money into just purchasing players, they’ve poured it into a sustainable model.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how the White Sox have played in Tony La Russa’s absence, then discuss the benefits and drawbacks of the rules changes coming to MLB in 2023: a pitch clock, restrictions on pickoff attempts and the shift, and bigger bases (with asides on a new WAR, Zack Greinke’s front-office acumen, and Ben’s hiccup cure). Then (52:40) they’re joined by historian Richard Hershberger for an in-person Past Blast from 1901, plus a long-term perspective on responses to times of rapid change in baseball, the sport’s cyclical nature, and more.

Audio intro: Phoenix, “1901”
Audio outro: Ryan Bingham & The Dead Horses, “Change Is”

Link to La Russa report
Link to MLB story on rules changes
Link to ESPN story on rules changes
Link to info on infield dimensions
Link to Evan on player objections
Link to MLBPA statement
Link to episode on pitch clock history
Link to MLB BABIP by year
Link to Rob Mains on August offense
Link to Rob Arthur on spin
Link to Ben on banning the shift in 2015
Link to Jeff on banning the shift in 2018
Link to shift loophole idea
Link to Russell on banning the shift
Link to Justin Choi on banning the shift
Link to BA on the shift
Link to BA on the rules changes
Link to Justin Choi on banning the shift
Link to info on hiccups
Link to info on “intractable” hiccups
Link to article on Greinke in Milwaukee
Link to article on Greinke in L.A.
Link to article on Greinke in Arizona
Link to article on the new WAR
Link to other article on the new WAR
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to Richard’s SABR archive
Link to 1901 story source
Link to episode on 1889 relief experiment
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Evan on voluntary recognition
Link to Michael Baumann on unionization
Link to Stengel HoF bio

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2:00	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another Friday chat!

2:01	Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece up today about the Rays’ surge into the top AL Wild Card spot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-a-slew-of-injuries-the-rays-have-surg…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I wrote about the Mets losing Max Scherzer and (briefly, for now) first place in the NL East https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-lose-scherzer-and-momentarily-their-n…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Also, I bantered with Dan Szymborski about Ohtani, Judge, and the AL MVP race as well as Zac Gallen chasing Orel Hershiser’s scoreless streak on this week’s FanGraphs Audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-catching-coordinator-bobby…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Bear with me for a moment as my lunch just arrived…

Read the rest of this entry »