You could be forgiven for having given up on the Rays. Four weeks ago, they lost to the Orioles at Tropicana Field, knocking their record to 58–53 and sending them down to fourth place in the AL East, half a game behind the O’s, two games behind the Blue Jays, and 12 games behind the Yankees. Injuries had gutted their lineup. Yet since that point, they’ve been as hot as any team in baseball, even the Braves. What’s more, Wander Franco is slated to return from a two-month absence on Friday, just in time for the surging squad to face the Yankees — now leading the division by just 4.5 games — in the Bronx.

The 21-year-old Franco topped our Top 100 Prospects lists in both 2020 and ‘21 before putting together a stellar rookie season last year but has played just 58 games this season, hitting a modest .260/.308/.396 for a 104 wRC+. He landed on the injured list on May 31 due to a right quad strain and missed most of June, then played just 13 games before returning to the IL on July 10 due to a fractured hamate in his right hand, which required surgery.

Franco began a rehab stint with Triple-A Durham on August 16 but made just two plate appearances before discomfort in his right wrist forced him from the game; later that week, the Rays pulled him from the assignment due to lingering soreness. He finally returned to action on September 4 and went 6-for-11 with a double over a three-game span. Tampa planned for him to stay with Durham through Saturday, but his 3-for-5 performance while playing nine innings at shortstop on Wednesday led the team to accelerate his timetable.

While Franco’s slash stats don’t measure up to last year’s numbers, his Statcast data in several key categories is practically the same:

Franco’s average exit velo and hard-hit and barrel rates are almost identical from year to year, but this year he’s hitting more grounders and fewer fly balls (note the lower average launch angle and the increase in his groundball/fly ball ratio from 1.32 to 1.66). What’s more, he’s hit just .188 and slugged .229 on grounders this year, compared to .252 and .306 last year. Where hitting the ball in the air helped him to outperform his expected stats last time, that hasn’t been the case this year, though he’s still produced a wRC+ nine points above that of the major league mark for shortstops (95). It’s also 39 points above that of fill-in Taylor Walls, who has “hit” an anemic .176/.267/.282 (65 wRC+) in 408 PA accompanied by a wide divergence in his defensive metrics at shortstop (-0.3 UZR, -4 RAA, and 12 DRS). By our measure, he’s been 0.4 wins below replacement, but via Baseball Reference, he’s been worth 2.3 WAR. Go figure.

While the truth of Walls’ value probably lies somewhere in between, the larger truth is that the Rays are a better team with Franco, and they’re getting him back at a critical time. The team entered Friday having gone 19–5 (.792) since August 12, tied with the Braves for the majors’ best record, and with the best Pythagorean record (.793) in that span as well. In that time, they’ve overtaken the Orioles (which took just a day) and the Blue Jays, cut the slumping Yankees’ AL East advantage to 4.5 games, and taken over the top spot in the AL Wild Card race. Here’s a snapshot of their odds change:

The Rays began that 19–5 run by taking the next two games form the Orioles and then two of three from the Yankees, though they have benefited by playing a fairly soft schedule thereafter: four games apiece against the Royals and Angels, six against the Red Sox, two against the Marlins, and three more against the second-half edition of the Yankees, who have gone just 19–27 as everybody not named Aaron Judge has either stopped hitting, gotten hurt, or both. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I took a look at a few starters who have changed their pitch mix after being traded halfway through this season. Today, I’m finishing the set. Here are the relievers who have changed their pitch selection the most in the month after joining new teams. One note: since relievers throw fewer pitches, the variability in their mix is greater; a few extra sliders to get the feel for them in a random game can tip the percentages meaningfully. I’m focusing on five relievers who made interesting changes, but you could add others to the list.

Lou Trivino, New York Yankees

The Change: -12% Four-Seamer, -6% Changeup, +8% Cutter, +14% Slider
Trivino is a rarity, a legitimate five-pitch reliever. He’s thrown his changeup, slider, sinker, cutter, and four-seamer each at least 10% of the time this year, and mixed in an occasional curveball for good measure. The Yankees are working to change that.

Since donning pinstripes, Trivino is down to three pitches he uses at least 10% of the time: sinker, slider, cutter. His slider is new this year, one of the sweeping types that are all the rage these days, and he’d already taken to the pitch in Oakland, using it nearly 20% of the time. He’s using it even more in New York; a third of the pitches he’s thrown as a Yankee have been sliders. Read the rest of this entry »

Glenn Otto is a different pitcher than the one the New York Yankees took in the fifth round of the 2017 draft out of Rice University. Acquired from his original organization by the Texas Rangers as part of last summer’s Joey Gallo deal, the 26-year-old right-hander not only has a better understanding of his craft, he’s attacking hitters with an expanded arsenal. Moreover, his five-pitch mix is directionally diverse. Augmented by an occasional bridge pitch, Otto’s offerings are designed to go north, south, east, and west.

Otto discussed his repertoire, and the education he’s received while building it, when the Rangers visited Fenway Park last weekend.

———

David Laurila: In what ways have you grown since coming to pro ball? Having played at a high-profile program, I assume you already had a good idea of how to pitch.

Glenn Otto: “I honestly really didn’t. I was a reliever in college and pretty much relied purely on stuff. I had a mid-90s fastball and a really good curveball, which was all I used back then. Once I got into pro ball and became a starter, it was about going as deep as I can, commanding the fastball to all four quadrants, developing a changeup — a pitch which has kind of come and gone for me — and I’ve also made some adjustments mechanically. Read the rest of this entry »

There are not many subjects that baseball teams agree on, outside of not paying minor leaguers much money. One thing that 29 teams do share is an enormous amount of regret that they didn’t convince Shohei Ohtani to come join their franchise after the end of the 2017 season. (OK, 28 teams since the Orioles bizarrely refused to make a presentation on philosophical grounds, but I’d wager that the current front office would not have operated the same way!) In any case, major league teams and fans who pay attention regularly covet the biggest stars in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), and a small but steady flow of talent comes to the United States and Canada from overseas. So I wanted to take a look at two Japanese players who, while they may not be the next NPB stars to come to MLB due to the vagaries of the posting system, are the most exciting young players in the league right now: Tokyo Yakult Swallows third baseman Munetaka Murakami, and Chiba Lotte Marines righty Roki Sasaki.

It would be difficult to overstate how dominating Murakami has been at age 22, but I’m going to try my best to do so. Called up for a cup of coffee at 18 years old in 2018, he quickly became one of Japan’s best hitters, slugging 36 round-trippers at age 19 and putting up OPS figures of 1.012 and .974 in the two years since. Like MLB, NPB is at a fairly low offensive environment these days, though it’s unlikely the underlying causes are similar. The Central League — pretty much the last bastion if you like seeing pitchers hit — is only scoring 3.64 runs per game, its fewest since 2015. That hasn’t kept Murakami from not just finding another gear in 2022, but enough extra gears that it looks like he emptied out a bicycle shop.

At 52 homers, Murakami is not merely at the top of the standings; he is the standings. Only a single player in Japan, Hotaka Yamakawa, has even half the home run total (38). There are only two players within 300 points of his 1.229 OPS: Yamakawa (.988) and Masataka Yoshida (.952), and that’s while using a fairly generous plate appearance requirement (250 PA). In recent weeks, Murakami also set an NPB record by hitting home runs in five consecutive plate appearances.

This type of home run dominance is rare, and Aaron Judge may be the first hitter in nearly a century to beat the runner-up by as large a margin as Murakami’s current one. OPS dominance to this degree is just as rare, even using the same liberal 250 plate appearance threshold rather than the official 3.1 plate appearances per team game, with only Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds matching Murakami’s current edge. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 991

On this edition of the podcast, we welcome a former big-league catcher who knows a lot about the position before some banter about an awards race between two unicorns.

• To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes Bobby Wilson, veteran of 10 major league seasons and current catching coach for the Texas Rangers. Wilson has gone from being drafted in the 48th round in 2002, to playing for seven clubs (including alongside Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli in Anaheim), to now finding himself teaching young catchers everything he knows. We get insight into how important the pitcher/catcher relationship is, how analytics and technology have changed the game since Wilson’s playing days, what it was like to catch Ervin Santana’s no-hitter, the one-knee approach to catching, and how vital it is to continue learning as the game evolves. [3:13]
• In the second segment, Dan Szymborski is joined by Jay Jaffe for some banter about the American League MVP race. Aaron Judge has been record-setting levels of incredible, while Shohei Ohtani continues to do things that have simply never been done by anyone else. Jay and Dan discuss the fascinating (but complicated) nuances involved with comparing this apple and orange, and how there doesn’t seem to be an airtight case for either player just yet. After that, the duo talk about Zac Gallen’s remarkable scoreless innings streak, which has prompted an Orel Hershiser comparison that Jay has some opinions about. Finally, the pair muse on how they don’t make them like Justin Verlander anymore, as well as Jay’s developing S-JAWS system. [35:05]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 56 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the late Queen Elizabeth II’s first baseball game, the latest on Joey Meneses and Juan Soto (and on Soto being booed!), an Albert Pujols/Willians Astudillo fun fact, a Mets/Yankees first-place race update, additional thoughts on Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, Paul Goldschmidt and the traditional Triple Crown vs. the “sabermetric” Triple Crown, and the great Rookie of the Year races between Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman in the AL and between Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II in the NL, then (49:03) answer listener emails about Carlos Correa’s front-office chops and unwritten rules they actually like, plus a Past Blast (1:22:15) from 1900.

Audio intro: Dan Bern, “Queen”
Audio outro: Keith Richards, “Yap Yap”

Link to story about QE2’s first game
Link to other story about the game
Link to the game at B-Ref
Link to video of the Queen at the game
Link to The Naked Gun clip
Link to Reggie tweet
Link to Meneses/Soto graphic
Link to other Meneses/Soto graphic
Link to Meneses EW YouTube video
Link to post about Nats’ elimination
Link to article about Soto boos
Link to Uni Watch on booing
Link to Pujols/Astudillo tweet
Link to Sarah Lang’s Mets tweet
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Mets
Link to list of Triple Crown winners
Link to Ben Clemens on Judge
Link to Historic Achievement Award
Link to Strider screenshot
Link to Jeremy Frank tweet
Link to CBA details
Link tweet about Correa
Link to story about Correa
Link to Keuchel’s 2017 comments
Link to info on nose-thumbing
Link to list of unwritten rules
Link to Vlad’s comment on showboating
Link to Hang Up and Listen episode
Link to story on Rangers vs. Celtics
Link to EW emails database
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1900 story source
Link to story about 2023 rules changes

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Last week, the Mets flexed their muscles by taking two out of three from the Dodgers — the majors’ top team by won-loss record, run differential, and most other measures — at Citi Field. On Wednesday morning they awoke to a new reality. Not only were they tied for first place in the National League East with the Braves, but they had to place Max Scherzer on the injured list due to an oblique injury on his left side for the second time this season; later that day, they announced that Starling Marte had suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right middle finger as well. The confluence may not rate as a crisis in Queens, but playoff races have certainly turned on less.

The Braves’ claim on a share of first place marked the first time since April 11 — and just the second time all season — that the Mets did not have sole possession of the division lead. By the day’s end, however, the Mets again had the top spot to themselves thanks to 5-1 and 10-0 poundings of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, running their record to 87-51, while the Braves beat the A’s to improve to 86-51.

As for Scherzer, with a chance to notch his 200th career win, the 38-year-old righty left Saturday’s start against the Nationals after just five innings, 67 pitches, and one run allowed. Following the final out of the inning — during which he got an assist on a routine groundout by Ildemaro Vargas — Scherzer motioned to pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to follow him into the dugout tunnel, then gave way to reliever Tommy Hunter to start the sixth. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, a huge throng of pitchers changes teams at the trade deadline. It happens for obvious reasons: teams with postseason aspirations and second-division pitching staffs try to augment their squad, juggernauts shore up their bullpen, or any of several variations on those themes. For the most part, it’s a simple re-allocation of good pitching: teams that don’t need it this year trade pitchers to teams that do, and reap prospects or otherwise interesting players in return.

Sometimes, though, teams make trades for a slightly different reason. Pitchers aren’t static; you can’t call someone up on the phone and trade for a 3.40 ERA, or 2.4 WAR per 200 innings pitched, or anything of the sort. You trade for a pitcher, and as we detail frequently in the electronic pages of FanGraphs, pitchers change the way they approach their craft all the time. They might take a new approach, or learn a new pitch, or switch roles. Learning a new pitch isn’t practical in the heat of a playoff chase, but changing the allocation of existing pitches is far easier. Let’s take a look at two starting pitchers who have changed their pitch mix significantly since being traded at the deadline, as well as two others who have made smaller changes. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time that the prophecy foretold has now arrived.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Such a cruel question to pose an O’s fan.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: If given the choice, I’d marginally take Julio

12:03

Dan Szymborski: young catchers always have an element of scary

12:03

Dan Szymborski: even terrific ones

Read the rest of this entry »

Most people who change employers and job titles go through an interview process, and Chris Valaika was no exception. A former big league infielder who’d been serving as the assistant hitting coach for the Chicago Cubs, and before that as their minor league hitting coordinator, he was carefully vetted before being hired as the hitting coach of the Cleveland Guardians last winter. What was that process like? He explained in an interview that was conducted earlier this summer.

———

David Laurila: You were hired by the Guardians last November. How did that come about?

Chris Valaika: “The interview process started a week or so after the season ended. I talked to [President of Baseball Operations] Chris Antonetti and then to [General Manager] Mike Chernoff. The one that really facilitated the process was Alex Eckelman, our director of hitting. We did phone to start and then Zoom with a couple of different groups. Tito [Terry Francona] was on one of them. There were some of our advance guys. There were Chris and Cherny. I also did an in-person interview with a couple of different groups. I talked to the player development department. I also worked with a hitter. I went through the whole gamut.”

Laurila: Can you elaborate on “worked with a hitter?”

Valiaka: “It was a mock. We went through the whole process of… basically, it was a workup of what I saw in the swing, and how I would address swing changes and approach.”

Laurila: This was from video?

Valaika: “Yes. And we did a mock of an in-person, as well — how I would interact in the cage to address certain things — which was to see my coaching voice, how I delivered information. We also went through advance reports and did a mock hitters meeting.

“With the hitter breakdown, it was basically me giving my 10,000-foot view of him approach-wise, bio-mechanically, things that I saw in the swing, and again, how I would address them.”

Laurila: Who was the hitter, and what did you see? Read the rest of this entry »