Toward the beginning of the season, strength of schedule isn’t all that important. The divergences in it are minuscule, not enough games have been played to differentiate team strength, and so on. There are projections, yes, but that doesn’t mean the actual season is never volatile. But as spring gives way to summer, providing a more accurate overview of the season, schedule strength becomes a variable that matters. Fans love to imagine that a contender would have an easier shot at reaching the playoffs with a cushy schedule, and it’s true. What kind of team wouldn’t want an easier road ahead?
Normally, early August would be a tad late to write an article on remaining schedule strength. But due to how late the season started, we’re only now two-thirds of the way in. Also, we just recently wrapped up the trade deadline, which saw some teams bulk up and others slim down, often at the expense of each other. It’s these additions and subtractions that have shifted the playoff picture. All in all, it felt like an an appropriate time to sit down, crunch the numbers, and figure out whose schedules are forgiving, and which are less so. Read the rest of this entry »
In addition to weathering an endless barrage of Jethro Tull jokes, Ian Anderson has played an outsized role in the Braves’ success since reaching the majors in late 2020. The 24-year-old righty has struggled this year, however, and on Sunday, the Braves optioned him to Triple-A Gwinnett in hopes that he can recover the form that helped his team come within one win of a trip to the World Series in 2020, then win a championship last year.
Anderson has pitched to a 5.11 ERA, the sixth-highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings, and a 4.24 FIP in 105.2 frames this year. He has been frustratingly inconsistent, allowing four runs or more in eight of his last 14 starts, five of those while failing to complete at least five innings. In his other six outings in that span, he’s allowed two runs or fewer.
Consider the sequence of Anderson’s last eight starts, a mix of good and bad outings versus good and bad teams: 4 IP/4 ER (vs. Dodgers on June 24), 2 IP/7 ER (vs Phillies on June 30), 5 IP/1 ER (vs. Cardinals on July 5), 5.2 IP/2 ER (vs. Nationals on July 10), 5.2 IP/ 1 ER (vs. Nationals again on July 15), 3 IP/7 ER (vs. Angels on July 24), 6 IP/0 ER (vs. Diamondbacks on July 30), and 4 IP/4 ER (vs. Mets on August 5). In the penultimate start in that stretch, he held Arizona to one hit and one walk, matching his season high of nine strikeouts, and on Friday, he yielded seven hits and four walks to the Mets, striking out just three. That’s not only a lot of variance, but it’s also a 6.62 ERA and a 12.4% walk rate over a six-week stretch, too much for any team — particularly a contender — to stomach.
“We need to get him right,” said Braves manager Brian Snitker of the move. “Hopefully, he can take a step back, reassess things and get himself going. He’s experienced a lot during his young Major League career, but he’s not a finished product.”
“They think I’m a big part of this,” said Anderson. “I need to get back to what I know I can be, and what they know, as well… Now it’s just kind of about getting confidence back and figuring some things out.”
Anderson relies on a three-pitch mix, with his changeup — thrown from a high and vertical arm slot — the star of the show. That pitch is still exceptional, but his results on both his four-seam fastball and his curve have receded significantly since he reached the majors, in part because he throws the latter less often when he falls behind in the count — and he’s falling behind more often. Always a pitcher with a reverse platoon split, he’s also been rocked for a .316/.380/.505 line by righties this year.
Anderson’s jump from last year’s 3.58 ERA is the third-largest in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings in both seasons:
Minimum 100 IP in both 2021 and ’22. All statistics through August 7.
Factoring parks and scoring environments into this, Anderson’s 39-point gain in ERA- (from 83 to 122) drops him to fifth, with Giolito and Ray leapfrogging him, but any way you slice it, that’s an unflattering list to land on. Read the rest of this entry »
Shane Bieber isn’t a prototypical modern-day pitcher. Unlike many of his peers who are on the mound pumping gas, the 27-year-old Cleveland Guardians right-hander succeeds by slicing and dicing, carving up the opposition with an array of well-placed offerings. Bieber’s heater is averaging just 91.3 mph on the season, and even in his higher-velocity 2020 Cy Young Award year, he was anything but a radar gun darling. From the time he entered pro ball in 2016 as a fourth-round pick out of the University of California, Santa Barbara, Bieber has been a technician, not a flamethrower.
It’s hard to argue with the results. Over the past four seasons, Bieber is 36-19 with a 3.04 ERA and a 2.99 FIP in 513 innings. Despite a reputation for having nothing-to-write-home-about stuff, he’s fanned 641 batters while allowing just 427 hits. In 20 starts this year, Bieber has a 3.39 ERA and a 2.96 FIP, tied for ninth-best in the junior circuit.
Bieber discussed the art and science of pitching when the Guardians visited Fenway Park in the final week of July.
———
David Laurila: At a time where a lot of guys are trying to overpower hitters, you’re viewed as a “pitcher.” With that in mind, where did you learn to pitch?
Shane Bieber: “I feel like I’ve been ‘pitching’ from a young age. My parents were involved — my dad was super involved — but the guy who taught me the most about pitching was Ben Siff. He was my travel ball coach for nine or 10 years, starting when I was nine years old. I’m still really close with him. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Dodgers’ and Mets’ “statement” series and the awe and anxiety inspired by Jacob deGrom, follow up on Vin Scully’s musical taste, retractable mounds, and Justin Verlander vs. Max Scherzer, and discuss a recent Rockies pickup and promotion and a hazardous mound visit, followed (33:00) by a Past Blast from 1887. Then (46:52) they talk to 95-year-old Ron Teasley, one of four living former Negro Leaguers from the MLB-designated 1920-1948 “major league” period, about his amateur and professional baseball career in Detroit, in the Dodgers’ minor league system, and with the New York Cubans, his memories of Minnie Miñoso, Buck O’Neil, and other Negro Leagues legends, breaking color barriers, the MLB reclassification and what else the league should do for former Negro Leaguers, his decades as a coach, the declining African-American presence in MLB, and more. Finally (1:23:50), they bring on author, editor, and historian Gary Gillette to discuss the restoration of one of the last surviving Negro Leagues ballparks, Hamtramck Stadium, as well as the ongoing efforts to preserve and uncover information about pre-integration Black baseball.
Dinelson Lamet’s time in Milwaukee is over before it ever really began, as the team cut him loose last Wednesday. Between missing time with forearm soreness and two stints in the minors, Lamet was ineffective for the Padres this season, issuing nine walks and 13 runs in just 12 1/3 innings spread over 13 relief appearances. One of four players sent to Milwaukee last week for Josh Hader, he never got into a game with the Brewers before being designated for assignment and subsequently claimed by the Rockies.
Typically, a quiet waiver wire claim of a struggling relief pitcher without a big contract falls, well, under the wire, but Lamet is a pitcher I’ve always been fascinated with. Plus, I like surprises, and there’s a big one here: the Rockies did something I really, really like.
Lamet has long been an interesting pitcher, but he’s had a number of serious setbacks that leave him with his career up in the air barely after his 30th birthday. Already behind the usual development curve as a prospect by virtue of being an amateur signee just before his 22nd birthday who was delayed by two years because of paperwork issues, he’s had less time to hone his craft professionally than most. Tommy John surgery cost him his 2018 season, and much of his 2019, and the always dreaded forearm soreness left him on the injured list for large chunks of ’21 and ’22.
Despite the relative lack of experience and the injuries, Lamet got solid results from 2017 to ’20 with a fastball that poked into the upper-90s and a slider that batters ineffectually whiffed through. In 256 1/3 innings over 47 starts in that span, he struck out just under 12 per nine innings, for an ERA of 3.76, a FIP of 3.72, and a healthy WAR tally of 5.1. Per 180 innings, that amounts to 3.6 WAR, nearly at the level we consider to be All-Star, but 180 innings has been a big “but” for him. Time that he should have been honing a third pitch, he instead spent recovering from his various injuries.
With less time spent in Milwaukee than Mike Piazza was a Marlin — I’m not sure Lamet even got issued a jersey in his two days on the team — it seems clear that an extended look at him was not in the team’s plans. It’s hard to blame the Brewers for that, as they’re thick in battle with the Cardinals for the NL Central crown and with a few other teams for one of the wild card spots. A reclamation projection isn’t an ideal situation for a contending team in August to be in. Where Lamet needed to go was to a team out of the playoff race and thin enough on talent that it could afford to look at a 30-year-old who may not be on the roster for more than two months. Enter the Rockies. Read the rest of this entry »
From 2018 through the first half of 2021, watching Jacob deGrom carve his way through whatever hapless lineup the Mets faced was a constant. His 1.94 ERA over that stretch was wildly impressive, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He wasn’t just enjoyable for the ERA, or even his entire statistical line, though that also boggled the mind.
To me, what was most impressive about deGrom is how he seemed to make the opposition inconsequential. It didn’t matter who he was facing, really. Every start was deGrom against himself, a pitcher perfecting his craft. When he located well (and he frequently did), he might as well have been pitching to cardboard cutouts. Fastball on the upper corner, slider falling away beneath it — the specifics changed, but deGrom’s repetition of his pitches never did.
Then disaster fell. Though he’d been remarkably durable during his run, missing only a few games with lat issues early in the 2021 season, the fun came to an end last July. He sprained his flexor tendon — the tendon that runs from forearm to finger, which sounds pretty important for pitching — and never threw another pitch that year. Some of that was the Mets falling out of the race; the team said he would have been ready for the postseason.
After he missed the first half of this season with a right scapula stress reaction, no one would blame you for wondering whether the ride was coming to an end. An entire year without a major league start is an eternity for someone who didn’t get Tommy John surgery. But I have good news for those of you who, like me, found watching deGrom’s casual dominance calming and delightful: He’s back, and with little rust to be found. Read the rest of this entry »
In what may prove to be their highest impact move of the trade deadline, the Dodgers traded swingman Mitch White to the Blue Jays as part of a four-player deal that lessened the immediate depth of their rotation. Less than 48 hours later, they watched as Clayton Kershaw once again left the mound in the company of a trainer, his future availability in doubt. While the combination of the trade and the loss of the three-time Cy Young winner isn’t likely to threaten their stranglehold on the NL West, the Dodgers suddenly have little margin for error when it comes to assembling a strong rotation for October — an issue that they’re all too familiar with after last year.
Kershaw left Thursday afternoon’s start against the Giants after experiencing lower back pain while warming up for the bottom of the fifth inning. Via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio: “Kershaw felt his back tighten up after his penultimate warmup throw. He then tried to throw one more to test the back, but immediately motioned over to the Dodgers dugout.”
The 34-year-old lefty underwent an MRI that didn’t yield any surprises, but he received an epidural injection to counter the pain and was placed on the 15-day injured list. “There wasn’t any new findings, so that’s a positive,” said manager Dave Roberts “This was the best-case scenario coming from the MRI.”
A best case scenario still is likely to mean a substantial absence for Kershaw. This is his seventh time in nine seasons missing time due to a back injury, and the second time this year; he had never doubled up before:
Clayton Kershaw’s Back Injuries
Start
End
Days
Description
3/26/14
5/6/14
41
inflammation
6/27/16
9/9/16
74
slight herniation in lower back
7/24/17
9/1/17
39
lower back strain
6/1/18
6/23/18
22
lower back strain
7/23/20
8/2/20
10
lower back stiffness
5/9/22
6/11/22
33
SI joint inflammation
8/5/22
—
—
lower back pain
SOURCE: Baseball Prospectus & MLB.com
That’s an average of 36 games missed for the previous six absences, with four of the six lasting longer than one month. An absence of similar length would still leave Kershaw enough time get a few regular-season turns under his belt before the playoffs, but any kind of setback could threaten his October availability. Read the rest of this entry »
Detroit didn’t do much at the deadline. Trading Robbie Grossman to Atlanta in exchange for soon-to-turn 21-year-old pitching prospect Kris Anglin was the only move. Many expected more. A disgruntled fan base thought that Monday’s swap of an underachieving outfielder for a potential future asset would be the first of multiple deals for Al Avila’s underachieving team.
[Update/correction: The Tigers also traded reliever Michael Fulmer to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Sawyer Gipson-Long, a 24-year-old 2019 sixth-round pick who was pitching at the Double-A level.]
The extent to which the relative inactivity was an indictment of Avila is a matter of opinion. Rival executives almost assuredly weren’t knocking down the GM’s door with appealing offers, and making trades for the sake of making trades is eyewash. Placating fans by simply moving pieces around doesn’t move the needle in any meaningful direction.
With a record of 43-66 and baseball’s 24th-rated farm system, which direction the club is heading in is far less clear than it was a year ago. Much for that reason, it’s easy to see why many in Motown would like to see Avila kicked to the curb.
Not everything that has gone wrong — and a lot has certainly gone wrong — can be placed squarely on the Detroit GM’s shoulders. But while this year’s plethorae of injuries and disappointing performances were largely beyond his control, Avila is nonetheless the architect of what has been a sluggish rebuild. The idea that said rebuild is in need of a rebuild of its own may be a valid one.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a possible solution to the quandary of not enough slashes in “triple slash stats,” discuss the increasing excitement surrounding Aaron Judge’s home run record chase, and (20:00) share a Past Blast from 1886. Then (24:47) they welcome back singer-songwriter, baseball balladeer, and converted Dodgers fan Dan Bern to talk about his appreciation for the late Vin Scully and his song “The Golden Voice of Vin Scully,” followed by performances of “Golden Voice,” “Ballpark,” “Turns Out, Ohtani,” and “42.”
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