Chances are you haven’t thought much about Edmundo Sosa recently. He lost the Cardinals’ starting shortstop gig to Paul DeJong before the season began, leading to inconsistent playing time. When given opportunities, he’s been hitting a paltry .160/.250/.160; striking out 42.9% of the time and walking zero percent of the time will do that. Making matters worse, his placement on the COVID-19 injured list last week further removed him from the action. He’s seen better days.
But wait — if you’re an astute reader, you might have noticed a curious detail. If Sosa has yet to draw a walk, how is his on-base percentage that high? I’m so glad you asked (and not me, who definitely didn’t need a segue). While Sosa has just 28 plate appearances to his name, he’s already been hit by a pitch three times. That seems like quite a high rate of plunkings! Indeed, here are the much-too-early-but-relevant leaders in hit by pitches per plate appearances so far this season. Guess who’s at the very top:
Take that, Michael Hermosillo. It’s Sosa who claims the throne by a small margin, but considering his offensive woes, the man needs any victory he can take. To Cardinals fans, though, his capabilities as a pitch magnet are nothing new. In 326 more successful plate appearances last season, Sosa dutifully bore the brunt of 17 pitches, which formed the backbone of a respectable .346 on-base percentage; he’s not the type to wait out four balls for it. That, in tandem with flashes of gap-to-gap power, made Sosa a sneaky component of the Cardinals’ yearly devil magic, as they made the postseason in stunning fashion.
It’s unfortunate that Sosa’s bat is dormant to begin 2022, but at least one offensive skill remains. Skill? Absolutely: certain hitters are better than others at getting plunked, and while there’s evidence that pitchers are driving the recent spike in hit-by-pitches, there’s also research suggesting that the latest generation of hitters are eager to endure pain for a free base. In Sosa’s case, any pitcher influence seems minimal; he’s seen about a league-average rate of pitches up-and-in thus far. That he led the league in HBP per PA last season (among hitters with 300 or more PA) and is continuing his reign is no accident. Sosa gets beaned a lot, and he’s good at it. Read the rest of this entry »
The Learning and Developing a Pitch series is back for another season, and once again, we’re hearing from pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features a pair of right-handers — Toronto’s Trent Thornton and Minnesota’s Josh Winder — on their distinctly different sliders.
———
Trent Thornton, Toronto Blues Jays
“Last year, I struggled with putting away righties. My slider wasn’t playing very well. I feel like curveballs are normally better to lefties anyways, so I started tinkering with a new slider grip that [Blue Jays pitching strategist] David Howell showed me. I started throwing that halfway through spring training, saw some pretty promising results, and took it straight into this season. I feel pretty confident with that pitch, being able to throw it in the zone, or out of the zone.
“It’s kind of an interesting grip for a slider. Normally, when guys are throwing a slider they want to think fastball as long as possible and kind of get that short, late action. But with this one, I’m almost thinking, ‘Completely on the side of the ball.’ In my mind, I’m trying to up-shoot it almost. I want to go straight across. It’s weird, because when I throw it, my wrist is literally like this; it’s kind of sideways. Basically, I’m thinking about bringing the back of my hands straight at the hitter. Read the rest of this entry »
Brandon Woodruff has been good for years now, but he’s always flown a bit under the radar. In some ways, he can thank his rotation-mates for that: Corbin Burnes has overshadowed him with his ascension to ace status, and Eric Lauer and Freddy Peralta have taken big steps forward of their own. The lack of attention directed Woodruff’s way might also have something to do with him being a little boring. He’s been a polished pitcher with a diverse arsenal since his major league debut in 2017, and nothing has really changed about him since he broke out as a full-time starter in ’19; his performance, velocity, mechanics, and arsenal have all remained consistent. And while having the seventh-best ERA- and fifth-best FIP- in baseball since 2019 unequivocally makes him a great pitcher, he doesn’t seem to have been as big a part of the “best pitcher in baseball” conversations that happen around hypothetical water coolers as those numbers might suggest.
His start to 2022 isn’t helping him much in that regard, with a 5.18 ERA through five outings, though there’s some small-sample funkiness behind that number. Woodruff’s BABIP is 25 points higher than his career average, his LOB rate is an unsustainably low 60%, and his ERA estimators are all around where they typically have been (2.83 FIP/3.25 xFIP/3.07 xERA). I’m not worried about his long-term performance, and regardless, that’s not what this article is about. Instead, I want to focus on Woodruff’s changeup, a pitch that has been anything but boring this season and that was on full display in his most recent start against the Reds:
Most of the talk surrounding Woodruff focuses on his pair of elite, high-velocity, whiff-inducing fastballs, which he throws over 60% of the time. Otherwise, he mixes in a curve and a slider that have both served him well, even if they’ve never quite reached the level of his heaters. Woodruff’s changeup, though, has started to become a serious weapon:
Brandon Marsh has an engaging personality and an innate ability to square up baseballs. He also has untapped potential. Rated as the top prospect in the Los Angeles Angels system prior to last season, the bearded, 24-year-old outfielder is building on a 2021 rookie campaign that saw him put up an 86 wRC+ over 70 games. Logging regular playing time in a dynamic L.A. lineup — this within an MLB-wide environment that is evoking memories of 1968’s “Year of the Pitcher” — Marsh is currently slashing .253/.318/.453 with four home runs and a 127 wRC+.
His offensive profile is more table-setter than bopper. Describing himself as a “gap-to-gap, doubles guy,” Marsh explained that while he’ll run into a ball from time to time, home runs are accidents. Line drives are his goal, which is precisely what the Angels want from him — and have wanted since taking him in the second round of the 2016 draft out of a Buford, Georgia high school.
“They’ve preached for me to keep my hands above the ball, and not be getting underneath and scooping it,” explained Marsh, who is listed at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. “That type of deal. I’m not a strong, strong guy. I’m tall, but the barrel tends to lag sometimes, so I really need to stay through, and on top of the ball.”
Marsh went on to say that he views himself as a scrappy player whose role is to grind and get on base in front of “a lot of special players.” And while it’s true that he’s not in the same class as teammates such as Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, or Anthony Rendon, he nonetheless struck an excessively-humble tone when assessing his own talent level. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the joys of a pitcher’s duel between Shohei Ohtani and Rich Hill, have a spoiler-free discussion about Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness being a baseball movie, examine whether the historically hapless Reds are truly tanking or are just a case of Nutting gone wrong, and talk about the state of the standings (including which teams have seen their playoff odds rise or fall the most in the first month of the season), followed by an update on league leaders and Manny Machado vs. Nolan Arenado, a suggested definition for “modern baseball,” listener-submitted examples of baseball skeumorphs, four pedantic questions about baseball, Ben’s confession of an Olaf-from-Frozen phobia, and an attempt to quantify the Cardinals’ varied sprint speeds.
It’s been far too long since we celebrated Rowdy Tellez. We ought to be toasting the achievements and the moniker of the Brewers’ burly first baseman on a routine basis, as they testify to the extent to which skilled ballplayers comes in all shapes and sizes, and if anyone wants to convene a parade towards that end, I’m happy to volunteer my services as grand marshal. With the 27-year-old slugger in the midst of a superlative week that’s placed him among more familiar names on the leaderboards, it’s high time to check in on ol’ Rowdy.
In the midst of a six-game onslaught during which the Brewers pounded 20 homers and scored 54 runs against the Cubs and Reds, on Wednesday, Tellez put together the biggest game of a career that’s spanned parts of five seasons, going 4-for-6 with a double, two homers, and eight RBIs. To be fair it came against a Cincinnati squad that took the opportunity to allow a season-high 18 runs while losing their eighth straight game and 19th out of 20, and against pitchers of questionable quality even within that context. After collecting a first-inning single off Vladimir Gutierrez, Tellez crushed a grand slam off him in the third, one with a projected distance of 453 feet; the drubbing helped push the Cincinnati righty’s ERA to 8.86. In the sixth inning, Tellez added a 431-foot two-run homer off rookie reliever Dauri Moreta (ERA: 5.11), and in the eighth, he added a bases-loaded double against position player Matt Reynolds:
On May 1, the Twins beat the Rays while the White Sox saw a late-inning comeback attempt against the Angels foiled. There was nothing particularly newsworthy about these games, but they did have a significant impact in the ZiPS projections: for the first time since early 2021, the White Sox were no longer the favorite to win the division.
Before the season started, ZiPS saw the AL Central as Chicago’s to lose, a calculation that was not going against the conventional wisdom. With a 61.9% projected chance of winning the division, ZiPS had the White Sox with the second-best divisional crown probability of any team in baseball on Opening Day, just below the Astros and their 62.8% chance of winning the AL West. And that projection had been even sunnier a month prior. When the lockout ended and we started Hot Stove League II: The Legend of Manfred’s Gold, ZiPS gave the White Sox a 10-game lead in the division and a 70.7% chance of finishing first in the Central. The team ZiPS was most worried about, from the point of view of the Pale Hose, wasn’t the Twins, but the Guardians, a team that didn’t even project to reach the .500 mark.
Amid the flurry of moves leading up to the lockout, Minnesota was very quiet, with Dylan Bundy as the club’s “big” signing. But once the lockout lifted, the Twins got into gear, picking up Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sánchez, Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and trading away Josh Donaldson, Taylor Rogers, various prospects, and… Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Twins also shocked the baseball world by getting Carlos Correa, one of the winter’s prime free agents, to sign a three-year contract worth $105.3 million, with opt-outs.
By the time all the roster shakeups and offseason moves finished, ZiPS had Minnesota’s 13-win shortfall against the White Sox down to just five wins. That’s a respectable cushion, but not one that will provide padding for all butts in all situations. And as I noted above, said cushion was all but gone by the beginning of May, though after two losses by the Twins and a win (and an off-day) for the White Sox, Chicago has narrowly taken back the lead in the projections:
ZiPS Projected Standings – AL Central (5/6)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Chicago White Sox
85
77
—
.525
44.8%
12.2%
57.0%
4.2%
Minnesota Twins
85
77
—
.525
41.1%
12.9%
53.9%
2.8%
Cleveland Guardians
80
82
5
.494
13.1%
8.0%
21.1%
0.7%
Detroit Tigers
71
91
14
.438
0.8%
0.6%
1.4%
0.0%
Kansas City Royals
68
94
17
.420
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
Chicago is the very slight favorite right now, but that can hardly be taken as a victory considering it represents basically a quarter-of-a-division crown that has evaporated in the last two months.
Some, but not all of the differences can be attributed to injury. Yoán Moncada was injured the day I ran the projections, though it didn’t look significant at that point. Eloy Jiménez is out as well, likely for a couple of months at least, and Lance Lynn is yet to make a start. Andrew Vaughn, one of the team’s few offensive bright spots, is also out with a bruised hand, though that looks far less serious than Jiménez’s hamstring.
But the Twins have their own recent injuries as well, in Gray, Bailey Ober, Jhon Romero, Miguel Sanó, and now Correa, who left Thursday’s game with a potentially fractured finger on his right hand. You always expect some injuries in the course of play; everyone being healthy isn’t the baseline expectation for anyone being realistic. The White Sox have good pitching depth that’s helped them survive Lynn’s absence and a brief IL stint by Lucas Giolito, but some of the offensive struggles (13th in the AL in runs scored) have to be chalked up to poor planning by the organization, and that’s not something you can attribute to poor luck.
Entering the season with a major hole at second base was a choice, not something fate thrust upon them. I thought at the time of the Craig Kimbrel trade that giving up Nick Madrigal was reasonable, something that many of you disagreed with at the time (and so far, it’s looking like I’m the loser in that debate). But my feelings about that trade would have been very different if you told me in advance that the White Sox were basically going to shout “Pass!” when it came to finding a replacement and would roll with a Leury García/Josh Harrison combination. No team we projected with a winning record had a worse depth chart projection at second entering the season.
Similarly, in right field, our preseason depth charts had the Sox above only two other squads projected to finish above .500. Picking up AJ Pollock was a good development, but the rest of the outfield consisted of two young players who missed a lot of time in 2021 with serious injuries (Jiménez and Luis Robert), Pollock has a lengthy injury history himself, and Vaughn was still a bit of a question mark. It only took a few injuries to stretch the team’s depth in both the infield and outfield.
Baseball’s new playoff system should have the White Sox determined to do more than coast to the divisional crown; with the weakest division winner put into a short wild-card round, ZiPS projected them as being the biggest loser in a 12-team playoff format. The good news is that, despite the problems so far, ZiPS sees Chicago’s decline in rest-of-season roster strength as a small one, from .531 to .527 before the strength of schedule is taken into consideration; the Twins have only improved from .508 to .509. The problem is that the good news is also bad news: ZiPS thinks that the relative strengths of the two teams aren’t drastically different than a month ago and still sees the division as a coin flip. To get the White Sox a comfortable division lead, you now have to think the White Sox are considerably better than their preseason projection.
White Sox Divisional Wins by Roster Strength
White Sox Roster Strength
2022 Division %
.480
17.4%
.490
22.2%
.500
27.7%
.510
33.7%
.520
40.1%
.527 (Current Projection)
44.8%
.530
46.6%
.540
53.2%
.550
59.7%
.560
66.1%
.570
72.2%
.580
77.6%
In short, the White Sox need to be better than they are now to regain the projected ground they lost. Even with a second wild card, that’s not necessarily a simple fallback position; ZiPS sees the average second AL wild card being an 89-win team and the average AL Central victor an 88-win team. What this means is that the Sox ought to be incentivized to be aggressive rather than reactive. Robinson Canó may be toast, but the chance that he isn’t is certainly worth the risk of a minimum salary. Don’t wait for another team to acquire Ramón Laureano in July before making an underwhelming counter-move; be the team that snags him in the first place, as quickly as possible. Get away from the idea that the contributions from any position are “enough” and adopt the mindset of brutally grabbing any opportunity that arises in the coming months. That’s what the Dodgers do.
The White Sox didn’t expect to be in a tight divisional race in 2022. They are now, and it’s time for them to act like it.
Michael King is really good. If you’ve been following the Yankees or the American League this season, you probably already knew that. He’s carving hitters up, to the tune of a 0.51 ERA over 17.2 innings so far. He’s striking them out (39.7% strikeout rate) and avoiding walks (4.8% walk rate). He’s doing it in long stints (six of his eight appearances have lasted two or more innings), but he’s excelled in short bursts too.
If you’ve watched King pitch lately, what he’s doing won’t be a surprise to you. His new breaking ball – a slider/curve thing he learned from Corey Kluber last year – is the star of the show. It’s a horizontally-sweeping curveball, or perhaps a slider with unique spin characteristics, or perhaps… look, maybe you should just see one:
For all the buzz around the sweeper, which the Yankees call a “whirly”, that’s not what King is doing. He’s throwing a curveball – he gets quite a bit of transverse spin on the pitch, which most sliders don’t, and uses Kluber’s curveball grip. Due to his low-slot delivery, however, “downward” break relative to his hand works out to more or less horizontal movement. Take a look at the direction of the spin he imparts on his pitches at release:
The blue lines are what we’re after – for a righty, that’s pure glove-side spin. You can think of it as sidespin. But look at his fastballs – sidespin in the other direction. How does that work? You can try it for yourself at home. Put your arm out straight sideways, then bend your elbow at 90 degrees, so that your hand is up above your head. Imagine an arrow pointing straight down from the bottom of your palm towards your forearm. If you impart spin on the ball that makes it move in the direction of that arrow – downward from the palm – it will break nearly straight downwards. Read the rest of this entry »
Landon Knack has been a beast when healthy. Selected in the second round of the 2020 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of East Tennessee State University, the 24-year-old right-hander allowed 50 hits while fanning 82 batters over 62-and-a-third innings last year between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa. Injuries limited his action. Knack missed the first month of his initial professional season with a hamstring strain, and later missed three weeks when the issue recurred.
He’s seen his 2022 season delayed by a month, as well. Hampered by what The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reported as “a minor soft tissue injury,” Knack has yet to take the mound. That will soon change. The hard-throwing hurler is expected to be activated by the Tulsa Drillers this weekend.
David Laurila: What stands out about what you’ve learned since joining the Dodgers organization?
Landon Knack: “I’ve learned a lot on how to adjust my pitches. I’ve learned to manipulate pitches a little bit to fit a better pitch profile, to get more swings and misses. The coaches and coordinators do a very good job of educating us, and making sure that we actually understand the numbers — understand what we’re looking at, and what we want to push toward with our individual pitching plans.”
Laurila: What is your repertoire right now, and what do you consider to be your best pitch? Read the rest of this entry »
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