FanGraphs Baseball

With the second half of the season well underway, the trade deadline is almost upon us. This week is a critical stretch for a number of teams sitting on the fence between buying and selling. A nice little winning streak could push them to act a little more aggressively on the trade market, while a bout of losing could be decisive enough to add another seller to the mix.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

News out of the Women’s Pro Baseball League has been sparse ever since the league’s draft back in November, but with the inaugural season set to start on August 1, the league recently announced team names and confirmed who will manage each of the four squads that will take the field this year.

I’ll get to a full breakdown of the managerial hires shortly, but first, a quick refresher on the WPBL’s plan for its first season. Teams representing San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, and Boston will play all of this year’s games at Robin Roberts Stadium in Springfield, Illinois, then take up residence in their home cities next year. Currently, all four teams are owned and operated by the WPBL itself, though that may change in the future. The league will play a six-week, 30-game regular season (15 games per team), followed by a two-week postseason during which each team will play a three-game series in the semifinal round, with winners advancing to a five-game championship series.

This is where I would like to tell you how to watch the games, but that information is nowhere to be found on the league’s website. As a result, fans have taken to the comment section of the league’s official Instagram account to try and get some answers, but all the replies from the account’s admin simply say details will be shared soon. I reached out to the league’s PR contact over the weekend, but have yet to hear back; we will update this piece if I do. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re one week away from the August 3 trade deadline, and yet there’s still very little clarity for a handful of teams. The American League is a jumbled mess, and National League teams like the Nationals and Padres are straddling the buy/sell line, too. But one thing is for sure: The Angels will be sellers. What’s not yet settled is the extent to which they’ll sell.

With interim general manager John Mozeliak running the show after the ouster of Perry Minasian, the Angels suddenly have their most decorated baseball ops head since Bill Stoneman, the architect of the 2002 World Series champions, who briefly returned to handle the 2015 trade deadline. That came after a power struggle with manager Mike Scioscia led to Jerry Dipoto’s departure, and Stoneman went through with a handful of depth moves, bringing in post-prime David DeJesus, David Murphy, and Shane Victorino to bolster a club that was 55-47 at the July 31 deadline. Those Angels were just two games out of first place and had a three-in-four chance at making the playoffs. They finished 30-30, fading to third place and out of the playoff picture with an overall record of 85-77. They haven’t had a winning season since then, and they haven’t made the playoffs since the year before, when they won 98 games but were swept by the Royals in the ALDS. It’s been a miserable stretch for the Halos, one that will continue through the remainder of the season. As of Monday morning, our Playoff Odds projected the Angels to finish with their second-worst record in the last 30 years.

Still, these woes don’t have to drag on in perpetuity. The Angels have options aplenty as the trade deadline nears to try and change the direction of their wayward organization. Here are three paths they could take: Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. You can read all of the entries here.

May 23
Today marks my first time leaving the house for more than an hour or two since Derek Jr. was born. I’ve got band practice, and then the band is going out to a bar to watch the game. I don’t tell anyone, but I’m so out of the loop these days that I have no idea what game everyone is talking about. The timing couldn’t be worse, and that turns out to be the theme of the evening.

I feed Derek Jr. and put her down for a nap right before I head out, but she wakes up with horrible stomach trouble as soon as I leave. Band practice is two hours long, and my wife spends the entire time soothing Derek Jr. Band practice is a delight, as always. It’s extraordinarily loose. I haven’t touched a guitar in months, but nobody else has been practicing either, and it’s not like we need to be ready for a show or anything, so nobody minds much when a song goes off the rails. Read the rest of this entry »

The Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals kicked off trade deadline season in earnest on Saturday night, when Boston sent left-handed pitcher Connelly Early to the Nats for corner infielder Curtis Mead.

Most consequential trades this time of year involve a contender swapping one or more prospects for an established big leaguer. Not so this one. At the time of the trade, the Red Sox and Nationals were in similar positions in the standings: The Sox were 53-50, seven and a half games out of the division lead, but half a game up in the AL Wild Card race. The Nats were 53-52, eight and a half games out of first place in the NL East, but only two games out of a Wild Card spot. Both teams are playing with house money: Boston on account of being 14 games under .500 less than five weeks ago, and Washington on account of… everything that’s happened since the start of the 2020 season.

And there’s little difference between Early and Mead in terms of age or team control: Mead is 25, and barring substantial changes in the next CBA, he’ll be arbitration-eligible after the 2027 season and under team control through 2030. Early is one year younger and one year behind Mead on the journey to both of those milestones.

Sound the alarm, friends, because what we’ve got here is a bona fide challenge trade. Read the rest of this entry »

Saberseminar is a leading baseball and sports analytics conference — and it’s all for a good cause. The conference will take place August 29-30 at Illinois Tech in Chicago. Saberseminar brings together academics, data scientists, and MLB front office employees for a two-day showcase of the latest developments in baseball analytics, and it’s a great chance for researchers to show off their work in front of an audience of teams and vendors that are looking to hire. It’s also a place to network and build community across the industry, whether it’s with fans, reporters covering the game, scientists studying it, or front office personnel. FanGraphs has been a supporter of Saberseminar for over 10 years, and several members of our staff will be in attendance. Proceeds from the conference support the Alliance to Cure Cavernous Malformation and the Young Center for Immigrant Children’s Rights.

We hope you’ll consider attending. Tickets are on sale now, with a large discount for students. For more information, please visit the conference website. We hope to see you there!

Conference Details
August 29-30
Hermann Hall Conference Center at Illinois Tech
3241 S Federal St, Chicago, IL 60616
Full Schedule

Saberseminar Meetup (21+)
August 29 at 6 PM
Maria’s Community Bar Back Patio
960 W 31st St, Chicago, IL 60608

Three interviews — two with pitchers, another with a hitter — were published here at FanGraphs over the past week. All were the result of lengthy conversations, and in each case, worthwhile snippets landed on the cutting-room floor. This week’s column will lead with those leftovers, which come courtesy of Drew Rasmussen, Cole Sulser, and Pete Alonso.

We’ll start with Rasmussen, who addressed his ability to command his offerings, particularly his four-seam/two-seam/cutter combination.

“Command is kind of a sliding scale,” said the Tampa Bay Rays right-hander, whose 4.3% walked rate ranks lowest among qualified hurlers. “Some days it’s really good and some days it’s not so good. The job is to figure out what you have as quickly as possible. On days when my command is really good… I would say that is situation-driven. If I need a ball on the ground, I can throw it with a little more tail and a little less carry. If I’m just trying to steal strike one, maybe I don’t want the [movement] profile to be as big; that way it has a better chance of staying in the zone.

“Conversely, on days that I’m not overly confident with my command, I simplify to the absolute max,” he continued. “We’re going to try to just throw the same one over and over again. Then, hopefully at some point over the course of the outing, something clicks and I start to get more and more confident, and comfortable, with the command I have that day.” Read the rest of this entry »

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a Donald Trump claim about Shohei Ohtani, José Caballero’s battle with MLB about his pre-pitch routine, Yandy Díaz spurning ABS, James Wood’s impressive results with a seemingly suboptimal approach, whether the Nats would be better off if they hadn’t traded pitching prior to the season, David Rubenstein’s Orioles optimism, and Corbin Carroll’s triples pace. Then (1:04:45) they talk to EW listener Jacob Redmon, who found himself at the center of a viral video this week when he was slapped by a man who objected to his staying seated during the National Anthem, about how the incident developed, what the video didn’t show, and what he took from the experience. Finally (1:57:33), Ben talks to Kenny Lofton about his exclusion from the Hall of Fame, his Cooperstown-caliber career, and his outlook for induction.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Trump on Ohtani
Link to Trump on Kershaw
Link to White House visit recap
Link to EW on Trump’s baseball career
Link to Caballero video 1
Link to Caballero video 2
Link to Caballero video 3
Link to Caballero comments
Link to Caballero article 1
Link to Caballero article 2
Link to Caballero article 3
Link to Caballero article 4
Link to Caballero article 5
Link to Caballero article 6
Link to “violation” comment
Link to CloseCallSports video 1
Link to CloseCallSports video 2
Link to Stanky draft episode
Link to Crizer on Yandy
Link to Yandy article 1
Link to Santana article
Link to MLBTR on Santana
Link to Yandy article 2
Link to batting team challenges
Link to Sam on bad challenges
Link to BP piece on Wood
Link to EW on Wood in 2025
Link to Nats WAR leaders
Link to team hitting WAR
Link to team pitching WAR
Link to Rubenstein quote
Link to Rubenstein quote thread
Link to Carroll triples fact
Link to triples park factor
Link to “55 burgers” ITYSL sketch
Link to National Anthem
Link to slap video
Link to Lucy Dacus tweet
Link to Lucy Dacus shirt
Link to Wednesday concert
Link to Chavez video
Link to Cubs statement
Link to EW Episode 2189
Link to 2022 Hoerner homer
Link to “third place” wiki
Link to Ben on the Hall of Fame
Link to Lofton highlights video
Link to Lofton playoffs video
Link to CF JAWS leaders

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Controversy surrounding José Caballero’s pre-pitch routine struck twice in the Bronx this week, with the first time prompting the benches to clear and the second causing unnecessary confusion. In the eighth inning of the Yankees’ 8-5 win over the Pirates on Monday night, Caballero did what he usually does — he dug into the batter’s box and didn’t look up at the pitcher until there were eight seconds left on the pitch timer. The idea is to disrupt the pitcher’s rhythm. Pittsburgh reliever Dennis Santana took exception to Caballero’s tactic — which, again, he has done many, many times for the last four seasons — and yelled at him after getting him to ground into a double play. The benches emptied, and the Pirates complained to MLB about it.

Turns out, the griping worked. After the game, the league told the umpires to more strictly enforce the rules requiring batters to engage with the pitcher with no fewer than eight seconds left on the clock. Instead of warning the batter, and then calling an automatic strike for a repeat violation, the umpires were directed to assess a strike to Caballero for attempting to deceive the pitcher, no matter how much time was left on the pitch timer. Both Caballero and the Yankees claim the league did not notify them about the change. As crew chief Adrian Johnson told a pool reporter after, “He’s been warned all season. We were instructed not to warn him. We were instructed to violate him. That’s what it is. It’s a violation.” Along with Johnson’s poor phrasing, the sudden change in enforcement is quite jarring and, in my opinion, inappropriate. If what the Yankees said is true — that the league didn’t tell them about the change — then I think this is an overstep by MLB to single out a player. Caballero accused the umpires and the league of “picking on” him. But even if MLB did give the Yankees and Caballero the heads up, I think the escalated enforcement is an incorrect interpretation of the rule. I love that Caballero uses the pitch clock to his advantage; pitchers can hold the ball and run down the clock to zero, so why shouldn’t batters be allowed to wait their full allotted time before engaging with the pitcher? Moreover, I also don’t know how Caballero is deceiving the pitcher by doing something he does so frequently. He’s certainly trying to annoy the opposing pitcher, but that’s not deception — that’s good gamesmanship.

Anyway, that’s the last you’ll read about Caballero in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about Esmerlyn Valdez’s heater, Gunnar Henderson’s woes against fastballs, how to fix the Angels, and whether anyone will break Jesse Orosco’s record for games pitched. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »