A warning up top: This article is about seeking and not finding, about the unique ways that data can mislead you. The hero doesn’t win in the end – unless the hero is stochastic randomness and I’m the villain, but I don’t like that telling of the tale. It all started with an innocuous question: Can we tell which types of hitters are streaky?

I approached this question in an article about Michael Harris II’s rampage through July and August. I took a cursory look at it and set it aside for future investigation after not finding any obvious effects right away. To delve more deeply, I had to come up with a definition of streakiness to test, and so I set about doing so.

My chosen method was to look at 20-game stretches to determine hot and cold streaks, then look at performance in the following 20 games to see which types of players were more prone to “stay hot” or “stay cold.” I started throwing out definitions and samples: 2021-2024, minimum 400 plate appearances on the season as a whole, overlapping sampling (so check games 1-20 vs. 21-40, 2-21 vs. 22-41, and so on), wOBA as my relevant offensive statistic, 50 points of wOBA deviation against seasonal average to convey hot or cold, 40-PA minimum per 20-game set to avoid weird pinch-hitting anomalies, throw out games with no plate appearances to skip defensive replacements — the list goes on and on. Read the rest of this entry »

You might remember that, back in May, I issued a challenge to baseball fans across the globe: Give up your favorite team for a week and follow another. Thus was the inaugural FanGraphs Fan Exchange Program born.

I published the original survey on May 20, assigned everyone a new team to watch between June 16 and June 23, and promised to publish my findings sometime in mid-July. July, as you might have noticed, has come and gone, and so has most of August, but the results are finally in.

Why the delay? Well, I want to say that draft season bled into trade deadline season and I just couldn’t find the time, but that’s not the whole story. I didn’t consider that I would have to do more to publicize the exit survey than post a link on BlueSky, and quite a bit of time passed before I went back to the original email list and sent a link directly. If you’re still waiting for the exit survey as you’re reading this, well, I’m quite embarrassed to say that doesn’t surprise me. At the end of the day, I’m not sure it went out to everyone. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the early start to the 2026 regular season and MLB’s schedule in a warming world, tossing snacks after tossing a bat, this year’s potential trio of 50-homer hitters (including a Cal Raleigh update), the virtues of players who have high floors (with check-ins on Bobby Witt Jr. and Trea Turner), the (dubious?) merits of the BBWAA’s new reliever of the year award, Tyler Phillips’s anti-hitter mentality, new large relievers Zach Maxwell and Drew Sommers, Brady Singer in Cincinnati, Juan Soto’s basestealing, Zack Wheeler’s prognosis, the latest on Shane Bieber and Kyle Tucker, and Samuel Basallo’s extension, plus responses about other sports’ significant sounds.

Audio intro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to schedule announcement
Link to Contreras ejection video
Link to Contreras ejection quotes
Link to suspension news
Link to pre-September HR stat
Link to 50-homer-seasons query
Link to FG WAR leaderboard
Link to Seinfeld scene
Link to Zoolander clips
Link to Sheehan on Witt
Link to Stark on the reliever award
Link to setup man award
Link to Phillips interview
Link to Maxwell intro tweet
Link to Sommers intro tweet
Link to Maxwell story 1
Link to Maxwell story 2
Link to Kirk steal story
Link to Vogelbach promo
Link to TOS types
Link to Curb scene
Link to Wheeler diagnosis
Link to FG on Basallo
Link to Rubenstein on extensions
Link to Kiley on Basallo
Link to table tennis spin
Link to table tennis stomps
Link to catcher stomps
Link to Spieth shot
Link to Tiger shot
Link to quotes about drives

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The Mets are the best Rorschach test in baseball right now. You can see almost anything you want to when you look at them. A band of high-paid underachievers? Sure. A great team in a rough stretch? Yup. A triumph of pitching development? Sure thing, but also a cautionary tale about what happens when you don’t have enough starters to get through the season. Each of those topics – and plenty more – are worth a closer look. But in watching the Mets in recent weeks, I’ve been struck by the same observation every time I watch a game. That observation? Man, Francisco Lindor is good.

Lindor has been right at the center of the Mets’ mid-summer meltdown. After starting the season as hot as he ever has, he posted two straight abysmal months in June and July while the team swooned in sympathy. I’m not sure you understand quite how bad it was, so let’s look at the numbers. He hit a desultory .205/.258/.371 over those two months, good for a 77 wRC+. So imagine my surprise when I looked at this year’s hitting leaderboard and saw Lindor’s 4.7 WAR in 11th place.

Now, am I writing an article to tell you that Francisco Lindor is good? I mean, kind of. More than that, though, I’m thinking of this as an appreciation post. Lindor’s year-to-year consistency is otherworldly. He’s putting the finishing touches on his fourth straight five-win campaign, all with wRC+ marks between 121 and 137. He’s doing it without it ever feeling like it’s unsustainable. So let’s appreciate that greatness and take a look at what this year’s roller coaster says about Lindor’s time in Queens more broadly. Read the rest of this entry »

By all rights, this should be a lost season for Daulton Varsho. The Toronto center fielder missed the first month of 2025 while rehabbing from offseason rotator cuff surgery. He started his year with a seven-game minor league rehab stint during which he batted .129 with no walks and no extra-base hits, good for a wRC+ of -29. Varsho got one month in Toronto, and then a strained hamstring stole another two months from him. After seven more games in the minors, Varsho returned on August 1 and now has 20 more games under his belt. So just to recap, Varsho’s season has gone: rehab for a month, play for a month, injured for two months, play for another month. He’s seen a grand total of 44 games of action.

That’s not exactly enough time to get your bearings, especially after a major surgery. At least, that wouldn’t be enough time for most people. Varsho is putting up the best numbers of his career. He’d never topped a wRC+ of 106 in a single season, but he’s currently at 127. He’s already posted 1.5 WAR, and although he can only get into a maximum of 74 games, he’s almost certain to put up the third-most WAR of his career. What makes all this even wilder is that Varsho only heated up during this most recent stint. He ran a 102 wRC+ before the hamstring injury, and he’s at 161 since he returned. As the cliché goes, getting Varsho back from the IL was Toronto’s best trade deadline acquisition. In fact, on a per-PA basis, Varsho has been a top-25 position player, on pace for 4.3 WAR over a normal, 150-game season.

So what is Varsho doing differently in this weird, bifurcated season? I’ll go over a few changes later on, but honestly, not that much. He’s just being himself, but his traits have been intensified over this short timeframe. Varsho has always been an extreme lift-and-pull hitter with a very steep swing. He piles up home runs and strikeouts, and he runs low BABIPs despite his speed because of that homer-or-bust approach. This season, he’s striking out more than ever, hitting more homers than ever, and running a career-low BABIP. Varsho has always been one of the game’s true elite outfielders despite below-average arm strength. This season, he’s putting up bonkers defensive numbers even though his arm has been one of the weakest in baseball so far. It’s like we got the from-concentrate version of Daulton Varsho, but somebody forgot to add water. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat.

12:01

Jay Jaffe: It’s my daughter’s birthday today so I’ve been running around like crazy, but the second installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress report is up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

12:01

Jay Jaffe: Part I, covering pitchers and catchers, ran last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Before I get going, thanks to a couple participants in last week’s chat for ideas that directly led to articles. Reader Your Name pointed out that at the time, the Pirates didn’t have a single player with a wRC+ of 100 or better, regardless of playing time. That would be a first if they pulled it off, as I discovered: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aargh-the-pirates-are-in-danger-of-making-… Since then, however, Tommy Pham and Spencer Horwitz have nosed over the line. We’ll see if they can maintain that

12:05

Jay Jaffe: Also, reader Nasty Nate asked for a look at Nathan Eovaldi, who’s having a sneaky great season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nathan-eovaldis-sneaky-great-season/

12:06

Jay Jaffe: For tomorrow, I’m looking at the AL MVP race, which is far from the Aaron Judge cakewalk that it looked like during the first half of the season — particularly if you take note of Cal Raleigh’s pitch framing as well as his prolific home run pace

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not telling our readers anything they don’t already know, but defense is a very important part of baseball, especially at the up-the-middle positions. You probably watch enough baseball to list the best and worst couple of defenders at each position with a fair amount of accuracy; I bet you’d nail most of them off the top of your head (aside from Trea Turner, I think the 2025 FRV list is damn good), and that you have a proper appreciation for the importance of defense at the premium positions, even if it comes with some amount of sacrifice on offense.

In the prospect realm, though, things are trickier. Prospect hit data from TrackMan and Hawkeye has become common in public-facing analysis and discourse, but defense remains something of a black box. There aren’t many publicly available minor league defensive stats, and so much of evaluating defense is still best done visually, at least in my opinion. I wrote a version of today’s piece a few years ago, wherein I performed the same sort of video deep dive that I use to evaluate top shortstop prospects’ defense, and ripped and edited together key plays from that deep dive to share with you.

This year, I’m turning that exercise into a series. I’m going to batch together a few players at a time until I’ve gone through all of the 50 FV shortstops, as well as a few key prospects with lesser grades. That will include all of the players linked here, plus a few more. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a big season for Manny Machado — a revival, as I termed it in June. After being hampered by tennis elbow in 2022 and ’23, then limited to DH duty in early ’24 while recovering from surgery to repair the extensor tendon in that troublesome right elbow, he’s played in all 132 games for the Padres, who ended the weekend tied for first place in the NL West with the Dodgers.

Along the way, Machado has collected some milestones. He clubbed his 350th home run, a two-run shot off the Giants’ Robbie Ray, on June 5, and he collected his 2,000th hit, an infield single off the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen, on July 7, the day after his 33rd birthday. By industry convention, based on a player’s age on June 30 of that season, Machado became just the 12th player to reach both milestones in his age-32 season or earlier, joining Hall of Famers Henry Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mel Ott, and Frank Robinson, future Hall of Famers Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, and cautionary tale Alex Rodriguez. That makes him an apt choice to lead off this installment of my annual Hall of Fame progress series; I checked on pitchers and catchers last week, and will cover outfielders and unicorns next week. Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas Rangers placed second baseman Marcus Semien on the injured list with a broken left foot over the weekend, retroactive to Thursday’s games. The result of a foul ball hitting the top of his foot, Semien was initially diagnosed with a contusion, but after getting multiple additional opinions, that diagnosis was revised to a fracture of the third metatarsal and a Lisfranc sprain. Semien, who turns 35 next month and whose last injury that merited an IL stint was a wrist contusion back in 2017, is having one of his weaker offensive seasons, with a .230/.305/.364 triple slash line, but thanks to his still-solid glove, he’s still amassed 2.1 WAR. The injury likely ends Semien’s regular season, and given where Texas is in the standings, probably his 2025.

I can’t think of many good times to break your foot. Just speaking for myself, I might consider a broken foot preferable to, say, going to a wedding I really don’t want to attend. But Semien is a professional athlete, not an introverted middle-aged baseball analyst who writes from home surrounded by computers and cats, and his team is on the brink. Texas is coming off a sweep of the Cleveland Guardians, but those three wins only got the team back to the .500 mark, with a 9-13 record for August. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »