A sub-theme of this year’s Prospects Week content was the sausage-making, a peeling back of the curtain to give you a look into the process itself. To put a bow on this year’s content, I wanted to spotlight some of the list-making procedures specific to the Top 100 list. This might be helpful to anyone looking to perform a similar exercise, be it baseball prospects, NFL draft prospects, or in a bar room argument around SNL cast members. Accompanying this fairly brief post is an episode of Yeoman’s Work, a lo-fi, multimedia presentation that focuses on the prospect analysis here at FanGraphs, paired with single-camera footage from my baseball video archives. Below is Episode 2 of Season 2, which features some of what you’re about to read, as well as a look at our in-progress Twins, Red Sox, and Rays lists, and footage of some 2022 draft prospects I’ve seen recently.

Most of my narration and video archive are very quiet, low-sensory experiences without music or crowd noise, which I think will appeal to those of you who enjoy Baseball Sounds, as they are front and center in the footage. If this tone appeals to you, my biggest “musical influence” in this department is Kathleen De Vere’s online pirate radio show, Brave New Faves. I recognize not everyone has an hour and a half to devote to this, so I’ve fleshed out the concepts related to the construction of the Top 100 below, if the video isn’t your thing. Read the rest of this entry »

For Dane Dunning, consistency will be key in 2022. A first round pick back in 2016, his professional career has been pretty turbulent for someone of his draft pedigree. He’s been the headlining return in two major trades — the Adam Eaton deal in 2016 and the Lance Lynn swap in ’20 — and also lost a season and a half to a torn UCL. To further complicate matters, the beginning of the pandemic disrupted his rehab just when he was preparing to compete for a spot on a big league roster. The delayed start to the 2020 season probably benefited him, however, as he finally made his major league debut for the White Sox in August of that year.

Dunning had just gotten his feet wet at the game’s highest level when he was shipped off to Texas during the offseason. The Rangers were extremely careful with him in his first season with the organization. You can understand why. He had missed more than two seasons worth of games between his Tommy John surgery and the lack of a minor league season in 2020. His first start in the big leagues was the first time he had pitched in an official game since June 2018. In 2021, he averaged just under five innings per start and threw more than 80 pitches in a game just four times. Still, with just over 150 total major league innings under his belt, Dunning has shown some real promise, even if there are a few kinks to work out.

Last year, Dunning managed to post a 3.94 FIP that was supported by a 3.87 xFIP. Unfortunately, his 4.51 ERA far outpaced his peripherals. He didn’t give up very many home runs — just 13 all season — but he did allow a lot of contact. Opposing batters produced a 78.1% contact rate against him, well above league average, though more than half of those balls in play were put on the ground. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was almost exactly league average, which meant he wasn’t really mitigating that contact with a gaudy strikeout rate and or a minuscule walk rate. Despite those mixed results, there are some positive signs under the hood that could bode well for Dunning’s development this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Last month, I went over some possible playoff structures in an attempt to design a format that allowed for playoff expansion while still preserving the value of adding a star to the roster. I focused on 14-team structures for a couple of reasons: it was more of a challenge to make a 14-team system that didn’t grossly alter team incentives and I suspected that the players would be willing to accept the larger field if it helped them achieve some of their other negotiation priorities.

Well, we’re a month later, and there’s a little more clarity. While there is still a lot to iron out and little idea as to when the league and the players union might reach a deal on a new collective bargaining agreement, there seems to be some kind of very preliminary sorta-agreement on a 12-team playoff system, though ownership has apparently been very resistant to allowing the more highly-seeded teams any advantage outside of the traditional home field-based ones (meaning no knockout run or “ghost wins”). Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 964

This week on the show, David Laurila welcomes long-time Pittsburgh scribe and former Baseball Prospectus colleague John Perrotto to the program.

Perrotto has been covering baseball long enough to remember the last labor stoppage, and he shares his perspective on the current lockout and how it compares to 1994. After that, we get anecdotes about a number of Pirates legends, including what it was like to get to know Jim Leyland, and that one time Brian Giles took batting practice in his birthday suit. We also hear about Perrotto’s clubhouse relationship with Barry Bonds, how impressive of an interview he could be when he wanted to be, and what it took to earn the slugger’s respect.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 43 minute play time.)

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There’s so much going on in the world that I screwed up the intro twice and even got the episode number wrong. Nonetheless, join me and FanGraphs’ very own Ben Clemens for a discussion about the long and ultimately frustrating week-plus of labor talks, the openly available financial records of the Atlanta Braves, the politicization of Derek Jeter’s surprising announcement, and, just because everyone else seems to be talking about it, Elden Ring.

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You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes/Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Warning One: While ostensibly a podcast about baseball, these conversations often veer into other subjects.

Warning Two: There is explicit language.

Run Time: 1:03:35.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com.

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by Evan Drellich, senior writer for The Athletic, to talk about the benefits and drawbacks of reporting from the scene of the CBA negotiations, the proper composition of photos of executives walking to meetings, not getting hoodwinked by sources, whether there really was optimism about a deal leading up to the MLB-imposed deadline for delaying the start of the season, whether MLB tried to sneak proposals past players overnight, whether the owners are trying to break the union, whether the owners and players are united internally, what still separates the two sides (and how much money it’s worth), Rob Manfred’s job security, the changing tone of national coverage of the labor negotiations, what could end the lockout, the prospect of on-field changes, and more.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, “Cohesive Scoops”
Audio outro: Atomic Rooster, “People You Can’t Trust”

Link to Evan’s first Manfred video
Link to another Manfred video
Link to well-composed Manfred video
Link to MLB exec video
Link to Twitter pooping exchange
Link to thread on where talks stand
Link to Evan’s latest report
Link to Evan’s weekend column
Link to MLBPA statement
Link to Stripling quote
Link to Martino report
Link to article on Ohtani’s service time
Link to Clemens on the financial gap
Link to Evan on EW in November
Link to Ghiroli on the talks
Link to Rosenthal on the talks
Link to McCullough on the talks
Link to Passan on the talks
Link to Ben on Lords of the Realm

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12:02

Dan Szymborski: <weary>

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Nothing is good at the moment!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: If Gleyber Torres doesn’t make sense, you must acquit!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I guess the ideal possible explanation would be that he had a secret injury which magically healed this offseason

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s small potatoes in the context of what’s going on (or not) in the baseball industry and the rest of the world, but so far as the Hall of Fame goes, the problem in a nutshell is this: Half of the starting pitchers who are in the Hall and were born in the 1950s are named Jack Morris. While there’s no need to relitigate the polarizing battle that forestalled his eventual election — been there, done that — the real issue, to these eyes, is that the gruff ex-Tigers workhorse is the only starter in the Hall born after 1951 and before ’63. When stacked up against other enshrined starters, his credentials are modest at best, and so his presence in the plaque room feels like an indictment of the quality of his peers.

The reality is that Morris won battles of attrition, first against the forces that reshaped the role of the starting pitcher following the introduction of the designated hitter in 1973, and then against the voting bodies that were slow to recognize the strength of those forces. He was a throwback, and in the arguments over his merits he became a symbol for a bygone era. Backed by strong offenses, he piled up innings while having less success preventing runs than his the best of his peers, but more success avoiding injuries or replacement by pinch-hitters and relievers. Plus, he won a few big games in October.

For all of that, I did not have Morris or any specific pitcher in mind when I began exploring ways to modernize JAWS to better account for the changes in starting pitcher workloads that have occurred over the past century and a half. After nearly two decades of using my Hall of Fame fitness metric, I know the contours of the position-by-position rankings reasonably well, and so I had a pretty good idea in advance which ones would be helped by whatever adjustments I settled on — that while knowing that those changes wouldn’t be so radical as to upset the entire system. That said, I suspected that shining a brighter light on some of those players would particularly resonate with fans of a certain age, particularly as I worked my way through history and reached the frame of reference of players I’m old enough to have watched. I don’t cross paths with a lot of fans of Jim McCormick or Wes Ferrell these days, but Luis Tiant is another matter. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2028-29 offseason was downright bananas. In a matter of weeks, the Dodgers shelled out $2.3 billion in guarantees, a spending spree that upended the league. What had been a good class for first basemen turned into a single team cornering the market: Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso, and Alec Bohm created a veritable pileup at first in Los Angeles, one that pushed the team’s best holdover player, Michael Lindauer, from first to shortstop. It also pushed Bohm to third, which meant fellow free agent signee Carter Kieboom was getting $75 million to be a backup. The rest of the league was caught flat-footed, playing catch-up or giving up on free agency entirely.

That’s just how things go in Magnus Effect Baseball, an online baseball-industry Out Of The Park league that grew out of 2020’s COVID-19 lockdowns but has turned into a freewheeling, frenetic playground that shows no signs of slowing down. Those mighty Dodgers didn’t break the league; in fact, they’re not even the best team in their division. It’s a wildly competitive league, with even the bad teams trying to trade, sign, and develop their way into contention.

Magnus Effect Baseball started the way most online activities did in early 2020: out of sheer boredom. Smith Brickner, the league’s commissioner, wasn’t the originator. At the time, he was working for the Braves as a minor league video trainee, but his job had been put on hold by COVID. “I had just driven 20-plus hours from the Braves’ spring training complex back to Long Island when my buddy Sam Denomme asked if I had an interest in joining an industry-wide OOTP league run by some guys at Driveline,” Brickner told me. “When it became clear that someone needed to step up and actually run the league, I raised my hand.” Read the rest of this entry »

As you’ve probably heard, Major League Baseball canceled the first two series of the 2022 season yesterday, after a self-imposed deadline to finish negotiations with the Major League Baseball Players Association on a new collective bargaining agreement passed with no deal reached. The two sides didn’t appear to be close to an agreement before negotiations ended; indeed, they remained far apart on several key economic issues.

The gulf between them is significant, but it doesn’t seem unbridgeable. Negotiations in three areas – compensation for young players, the competitive balance tax, and postseason expansion – will be key to reaching an agreement when talks resume. Those are far from the only issues that separate the two sides, of course, but they dwarf the rest; presumably a compromise in those three areas would precipitate a deal. Or at least, that was my assumption when I began to look at the differences. Let’s see just how far apart MLB and the MLBPA actually are. Read the rest of this entry »