Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/27/26
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to what will be my final chat of the 2026 baseball season, as we're somewhere from one to four games away from the World Series wrapping up.
That escalated quickly last night, didn't it? The Brewers eight-run fifth inning turned the series from a still-competitive one to a steamrolling in the making. Given the uncertainty of the upcoming offseason, I wouldn't mind a longer series, but I don't blame Brewers fans for being over the moon right now.
Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Rays catcher Liam Hicks and two plays from Game 2 that loomed large — and then he didn't even get into Game 3 because the Brewers started lefty Robert Gasser.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/liam-hicks-has-been-a-fine-catch…
Before I dig in, a reminder that to submit a question, you have to be logged into your FanGraphs user account (a paid membership isn't necessary but thank you if you're among our subscribers). And a quick announcement of some upcoming dates of interest:
The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot for Managers, Executives and Umpires will be announced on Monday, November 2, with the results announced on Sunday, December 6. |
The dates for the BBWAA ballot are Monday, November 16 and Tuesday, January 1
Our site is dark for election day, November 3, so in all likelihood my first look will come the day after that. And now, on with the show.
Hicks really scuffled against left-handed pitching this season (.192/.274/.231, 45 wRC+) where the righty-swinging Nick Fortes was basically platoon-neutral, hitting 252/.315/.361(91 wRC+) against lefties.
I'm working on a piece to answer that question 😉
I don't have a comprehensive answer for this but just last fall, Addison Barger was doubled off second base to end Game 6 and then Isiah Kiner-Falefa got a poor jump and failed to slide into home plate in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7. Those plays loom quite large given the outcome of the series.
I suppose it's unsporting to pile on the 1991 Braves for Ron Gant getting pulled off first base by the Twins' Kent Hrbek in Game 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiraekmCNv4) but Lonnie Smith's subsequent failure to score from second on a Terry Pendleton double in the eighth inning of a scoreless Game 7 was a huge gaffe in what became a 1-0 Twins win in 10 innings (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiraekmCNv4)
A decision by the Brewers to move back to Seattle and return to being the Pilots. Given a likely territorial dispute with the Mariners, I don't see this getting wrapped up by first pitch tonight at 8ish pm ET.
Beyond that, I think it will take some Gashouse Gorilla-like rallies by the Rays, but I'm not holding my breath.
I wouldn't lay it all on Murphy so much as crediting it as an organizational philosophy and manifestation involving both the pitching side and the hitting side. Coaches and front offices need to find the right players and supplement them with the right instruction and data to pull that off.
It's still damn impressive and, assuming the Brewers do take the series at some point, it will be quite the organizational accomplishment.
Autumn in Brooklyn is lovely. Recently I joined Citi Bike so I can now bike around Prospect Park as an exercise option, and seeing the leaves change color is a nice little treat that I associate with that.
I thought Monday's Devil Rays throwback jersey was quite silly. As the D-Rays, they never won more than 70 games, and reached that mark just once. The franchise's exorcism of the Devil coincided with their sudden rise to relevance in 2008, when they won their first pennant. Why they would want to invoke the bad old days is absolutely beyond me.
On the other hand I generally love the Brewers' uniforms, with the powder blues being my favorites
I absolutely can't see them running back this year's squad. We'll see what happens with Bo Bichette's player option — and the CBA's tax penalties, sigh — but I suspect they'll make an effort to lean into the youth movement even if it means eating some salary.
I believe that Alex Bregman and Luke Gregerson in 2017, via Team USA and the Astros, are the only ones to do it thus far.
I don't see that as likely to be enough. He had big ssons of 7+ bWAr in 2018 and '19 but otherwise hasn't had a single 5.0-WAR season (4.9 in 2016) and then nothing else above 3.8.
I suspect that White receiving the Buck O'Neil Award this past summer may mean he won't be on the ballot, and certainly won't be particularly well positioned if some combination of Bruce Bochy, Dusty Baker, Lou Piniella, Joe West, Dave Dombrowski, Billy Beane, and Theo Epstein are all on there (which isn't to say they will all be on there). I'll be most excited for Baker's appearance given the way the baseball world came around on him during his final years managing.
Good question, one I'll try to address in the aforementioned piece.
Well, as we heard early in last night's game, the original plan was to go with Nick Martinez for Game 5. I suspect they stick with that because bringing Rasmussen back on three days of rest, after throwing 89 pitches in Game 2, isn't likely to boost their odds, paritcularly when going up against Misiorowski.
Well, they went with their Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Bud Selig before Game 1, and Paul Molitor before Game 2. If you're thinking in terms of franchise icons, the next in line is probably Ryan Braun. In terms of other recent icons, Prince Fielder certainly spent a lot longer in Milwaukee than Sabathia, who's really much more associated with the Yankees now that he's got the Hall of Fame plaque, the Yankee Stadium plaque, and the retired jersey number. Stars from the 1982 team would include Cecil Cooper and Gorman Thomas. I don't have a great feel for who would generate the loudest response but I think fans would be happy to see any or all of them, though I strongly suspect this series won't get back to Milwaukee.
For sure, eventually. Cashman is too young to be placed on the ballot while still active. A manager has to be 65 or older and 6 months into retirement to be eligible, while an exec has to be 70 or older (can still be active).
not particularly. The more lopsided a series, the less likely fans of that team are to shell out hundreds or thousands of dollars per ticket. I'd say this is more a commentary on the enthusiasm of Brewers fans willing to travel and to pay big bucks.
Indeed.
While I haven't done any research on the leagues that have experiemented with it, a 45-degree rule sounds quite reasonable AND I think could slightly nudge offense upward while lowering strikeout rates without forcing pitchers to do something like throwing from a longer distance (which I think will lead to them throwing harder to chase velocity nonetheless)
At some point, he's probably trade fodder, but I don't know that a move will be imminent. Made had an excellent season in Double-A at age 19 but I'm not sure that the Brewers need to bulldoze their roster to find a spot in the infield for him on Opening Day 2027. Having a veteran like Ortiz could be quite helpful when it's time to break him in.
There are a million books, TV shows, and movies out there that you probably haven't gotten to yet that can fill the void. Just to throw some TV series out there, lately my wife and i have been streaming Slow Horses, The Night Manager, The Gentlemen, The Lowdown, The Diplomat, Shoresy, Rivals, Shrinking, and Great British Bakeing Show. We loved Widow's Bay, and and I just found an SCTV archive on Netflix
That's wild!
That's a good question. I imagine since he didn't appear impeded after making the play, the Rays didn't send their training staff out to check on him. I don't know for sure but I suspect somebody at least checked on him in the dugout or clubhouse after he came in. He sounded fine during his brief in-game interview with Ken Rosenthal.
Given the possibility of lingering effects, I do imagine (and hope) that the Rays staff is keeping an eye on him.
File this under World Series Plays That Would Have Been Affected by a Replay Challenge.
I can't think of any offhand. Crowd, got any nominees?
Yeah it's down to those two, I think. Chourio is 8-for-14 with a double, 2 RBI, 3 steals, and one big assist (the Hicks play), Contreras is 7-for-13 with 3 RBI, 3 caught stealing (in 7 attempts) and god knows how many successful challenges behind the plate. Either would be a reasonable choice but I can see Contreras getting it on the basis of handling the pitching staff.
OK, i just created a poll on that MVP question which published at the top of the chat, please vote if. you're still around.
Regarding the rostered players who didn't play in the postseason. Backup catcher makes sense.
I've got the Skubal capsule for our upcoming Top 50 Free Agents list, but I've only given these questions brief thought. My hunch is that his lack of a robust 32-start platform season and the impending lockout both keep him shy of $400 million, and if he signs before the lockout it will be in the final week. Like November 30ish
Well, we've seen a few trades of managers in the 21st century. The Rays acquired Piniella and infielder Antonio Pérez rom the Mariners in exchange for outfielder Randy Winn — a 3-4 win player at his peak _ in October 2002. The White Sox acquired a couple of scrubs for Ozzie Guillen in September 2011, and the Blue Jays acquired Mike Aviles for David Carpenter and manager John Farrell in October 2012. The Winn return was widely viewed as an overpay, so I'd say that future returns aren't going to be guys who leave very big impacts even if it's a very good manager like Vogt.
notable, though those World Series didn't include additional rounds of playoffs.
Nothing alliterative or rhyming with Pat or Murph(y) comes to mind for me. Whatever it is, the bar is very high to beat Harvey's Wallbangers
Once in awhile I get confused about which popular 19th century players are in and which aren't, guys like Jack Glasscock, Bill Dahlen, and Tony Mullane, but I always figure it out before I have to go look it up. I know from recent experience that I tend to lump Roger Clemens and Pete Rose in with their Hall of Fame teammates whe I'm reeling off a list, then of course I have to go back and re-engineer those sentences.
Ok folks, that's it from me this week. No chat for me next week as we'll be dark for election day. Please go vote! And enjoy the rest of the World Series, if you can.
Looks like Contreras is winning World Series MVP poll by a 2-to-1 margin. Not sure if I have to close it separately or not. If not, I'll keep it open for those who come across the transcript
Thanks for stopping by!
