José Urquidy delivered a relative gem in Game 2 of the World Series, punching out seven and giving up two runs with no walks in five innings. Included in that was a big bump in velocity across the board: Urquidy’s fastball gained 0.6 mph from its regular-season average (93.1 versus 92.5); his changeup spiked nearly two miles per hour (86.2 versus 84.4); and his slider saw the largest increase, from 79.3 mph to 81.7. Dialing up the velocity to this extent can effectively create new pitches, and with that an element of unpredictability, particularly when it comes to a pitch’s movement. That can be a plus in the postseason, but what about the flip side; could that extra velocity and movement make things worse?

On the surface, Urquidy throwing his hardest fastballs of the year in his most important start can’t be a bad thing, assuming it doesn’t compromise his command. Can he so precisely regulate the velocity of his offspeed offerings? Amazingly, we might be seeing the reverse from Urquidy, who seems to be throwing the offspeed stuff harder but holding back on the fastball.

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The Astros have powered their way into their third World Series in the last five years without the offensive contributions of one of their key players. In Houston’s 12 postseason games this October, Alex Bregman has hit a paltry .239/.308/.326 (.273 wOBA). He fared well against the White Sox in the ALDS, collecting six hits and two walks in those four games, but has just five hits in the eight games since and has been held hitless so far in the World Series. When your lineup is as deep as Houston’s is, you can survive a prolonged slump from one of your stars because there are so many other good hitters who can pick up the slack. Still, the Astros would rather Bregman hit than not.

These postseason struggles are just a continuation of a rough end to the regular season for the third baseman. He lost over two months of the season to a quad injury, keeping him sidelined from June 17 to August 25. After being activated from the injured list, he collected hits in 16 of his first 18 games back, but ended the season with just six hits in the team’s final 14 games. If you tack his postseason performance on to the end of his regular season, he’s hit just .200/.293/.313 (.269 wOBA) over his last 30 games. That late season swoon brought his wRC+ down from 130 on September 16 to 115 just 14 games later.

Bregman started his major league career with just two hits in his first 10 games, but pushed his wOBA up to .315 by his 30th game in the bigs. He’s had some slumps over the years — notoriously starting off each season slowly — but there’s never been a 30 game stretch where his wOBA has fallen as low as it is right now. Just looking at some of his peripheral stats during this stretch reveals where most of Bregman’s problems lie:

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, the market’s marquee starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

2:00	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, and welcome to today’s chat! Thankfully the technical snarls that knocked last week’s chat off the table aren’t an issue today; apologies to those who showed up to that one or waited around for it to materialize to no avail.

2:01

Jay Jaffe: As I’m on recap duty for Game 3 tonight, I did not write for today but did a piece about Eddie Rosario’s hot streak yesterday https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/despite-a-rough-night-eddie-rosario-ha… and spoke to Kevin Goldstein about Dusty Baker https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kris-bubic-chats-changeups… and my recent piece on his managerial evolution and Hall of Fame case https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dusty-baker-job-security-and-the-hall-of-f…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Pitcher strikeouts strongly correlate with run prevention and future success, but the relationship doesn’t work the same way for hitters, in that a lot of high strikeout hitters have good power and generally strong production.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen should be a Hall of Famer. Dick Allen is not yet a Hall of Famer. Hopefully on December 5, that status changes (see here for more about this year’s Era Committee schedule https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-experts-on-the-negro-leagues-involved…)

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for five of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers with reliever/starter flexibility. Read the rest of this entry »

After a one-year hiatus due to the oddity and non-celebratory feeling of a season truncated by a raging pandemic, we’re bringing back the Elegy series in a streamlined format for a 2021 wrap-up. Think of this as a quick winter preview for each team, discussing the questions that faced each team ahead of the year, how they were answered, and what’s next. Do you like or hate the new format? Let me know in the comments below! We’ve already tackled the AL and NL Central; now it’s on to the East, starting with the American League.

Tampa Bay Rays (100-62)

The Big Question

The Rays are one of the best teams in history at competing on a year-in, year-out basis with a budget dwarfed by their rivals, right up there with Connie Mack’s, Charlie Finley’s, and Billy Beane’s A’s. But in a very tough division, they walk a very high player churn tightrope without a safety net. Would the Blake Snell trade finally be the one to knock Tampa Bay off that tightrope? The team has to stay smarter than its rivals, which is a lot tougher to do than it was in the heyday of any of the other teams listed above. It’s not so much of a question of if they got good value for Snell — they got real players in return — but whether the team’s rotation depth, already relatively thin with Charlie Morton‘s departure and Tyler Glasnow’s injury history, would be sufficient to prevent the Rays from having another down period. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2021-22 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2022 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of relievers. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 946

This week we welcome another major league pitcher before discussing a baseball icon who happens to be managing in the World Series.

• To start the show, David Laurila welcomes Kansas City Royals left-hander Kris Bubic. The pair reviews Bubic’s pitch mix, in particular his changeup. Bubic also shares what it’s like playing with teammates like Danny Duffy, Jackson Kowar, and Scott Barlow, as well as what he might look to do after his playing days are over. [2:15]
• Then in the second half, it’s Jay Jaffe and Kevin Goldstein on the legend of Dusty Baker. Jay recently wrote about Baker’s career and Hall of Fame chances, and Kevin recalls the manager’s hiring during a particularly weird time for the Astros. The duo discuss Baker’s evolution as a manager, what he seems to bring to a clubhouse, and what the rest of the World Series might have in store. [22:23]

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History is made on this week’s episode of Chin Music, as FanGraphs Managing Editor and Effectively Wild co-host Meg Rowley becomes the first former guest to serve as a co-host. Meg joins me for two hours of talk on baseball and other stuff to help you waste another afternoon. We begin by reviewing the first two games of the 2021 World Series, including a discussion on postseason pitching strategies and the wildly different reactions neutral fans have had toward the Houston Astros as a whole as compared to their manager, Dusty Baker. Then we get into Rob Manfred’s unfortunate comments on fan behavior in Atlanta, as well as an update on the sport’s potential upcoming labor impasse. Next we are joined by special guest Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News to talk about what the hell is going on with the New York Mets and their GM/POBO search. Then it’s your emails, including a discussion of Jeff Luhnow’s baseball future (if any), followed by Meg’s literary plans and a few podcast, book and YouTube channel recommendations.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Winterhawk.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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