Yesterday Jason Martinez and Jon Tayler previewed left and center field. Now we round out the outfield positions in right.

Last year was a banner one for right fielders. For starters, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto finished first and second in National League MVP voting, that after ranking first and third in the majors in wRC+, and finishing in a virtual tie for third in WAR. Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker both ranked among the majors’ top seven hitters by wRC+ as well, with the former cracking the top 10 in WAR, too. Seven of the top 30 qualified hitters by wRC+ were right fielders, even with Mookie Betts grinding through a comparatively subpar season where he was beset by a bone spur in his hip and Ronald Acuña Jr. falling short of qualifying due to a torn ACL that ended his season in July, perhaps costing him the NL MVP award. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos, who ranked 13th in the majors in wRC+, was one of seven position players to net a $100 million free agent contract this winter, though he’s bound for more DH and left field duty with the Phillies. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 968

This week on the podcast, Dan Szymborski and Ben Clemens go over their work on the 2022 positional power rankings.

Dan wrote about the league’s catchers, so the duo discuss Will Smith’s sneaky stardom, Yasmani Grandal’s wild 2021 stat line, and how the importance of framing makes Salvador Perez a controversial backstop. Meanwhile, Ben covered second and third base, so we also hear about where Luis Arraez fits in for the Twins (and their curious situation at third), the career arc of Gleyber Torres, and whether Ben thinks he would give Jose Altuve a Hall of Fame vote when the time comes. Finally, Ben shares his favorite video game of the year so far, and it probably isn’t the one you think.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 50 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Fox Sports national writer Pedro Moura discuss Pedro’s new book How to Beat a Broken Game: The Rise of the Dodgers in a League on the Brink, then (18:54) preview the 2022 season in the American League West, team by team.

Audio intro: Jim White, “Book of Angels”
Audio outro: Dire Straits, “Wild West End”

Link to Pedro’s book
Link to 2021 Gurriel story
Link to 2022 Gurriel story
Link to Ben on Ohtani
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Angels
Link to Corey Brock on Gilbert
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Kelenic

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12:04

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to SzymChat! Now, we should have had baseball this week, but at least we’ll have it next Thursday instead of , say, nothing until 2023!

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Probalby some leftover pizza.

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Quite. There were already reasons to be worried

12:05

Dan Szymborski: And while spring training doesn’t mean a LOT, Rosenheck showed some years ago that it means a LITTLE of something

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Jason Martinez examined the state of left field. Now we turn our attention to those who roam center.

Center field is jam-packed with interesting depth charts. Magisterial superstars? We’ve got those — Mike Trout and Ronald Acuña Jr. feature prominently. Marvelous defenders? Byron Buxton is more than just that, but he certainly fits the bill, and Harrison Bader might be his equal with the glove. Exciting rookies? Julio Rodríguez and Riley Greene are both projected to play. Bounce-back candidates, 2021 breakouts who will be trying to prove it again, sketchy defenders who play the position anyway for want of better options — the center field landscape is truly diverse. Sure, Trout tops the list, and sure, the Rockies and Royals bring up the rear, but don’t judge a book by its front and back cover: this might be the most interesting collection of projections in this entire exercise. Read the rest of this entry »

The MLB Statcast fielding metric Outs Above Average (OAA) is now available on player pages in the “Advanced Fielding” section and on the leaderboards. We’ve also included the accompanying Fielding Runs Prevented metric (RAA), which is OAA converted to runs above average. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we wrapped up our analysis of the league’s infielders with third base and shortstop. Today, we shift our attention to the outfield, starting in left.

This year’s group of left fielders is projected to combine for less WAR (65.7) than any other positional group, although the “Mike Trout to left” move that was discussed this spring but didn’t come to fruition — maybe next year — would have pushed them ahead of the first basemen. This shouldn’t be a shocking revelation. In last year’s write-up, Kevin Goldstein described left field as “something of an island of misfit toys” and “a bit of a dumping ground on big-league rosters.” Read the rest of this entry »

Amidst the offseason hubbub, it’s easy to miss a move here and there. Last week, Tommy Pham signed with the Reds on a one-year, $7.5 million contract. Cincinnati had one of the league’s weaker outfields, with an unimpressive trio of Nick Senzel, Tyler Naquin, and Shogo Akiyama. Pham, now 34, is old in baseball years. His time in San Diego didn’t go so well, and he’s been presented with an opportunity to prove himself. The Reds are selling, but precisely because they aren’t contenders, Pham should find plenty of time on the field. This is a deal both sides are presumably happy with.

But if you’ve been on Baseball Savant before, you could imagine how this deal might have ended up differently. In that scenario, Pham certainly nets more than $7.5 million. Maybe even multiple years. He’s settled for his current contract because, in the last two seasons, Pham has posted a 97 wRC+. The Reds are paying him as if he’s expected to contribute one or two wins above replacement. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, the Twins got their dessert: they signed the top free agent in the market and installed him in the middle of the lineup. This week, they’re eating their vegetables, in the form of a one-year deal with Chris Archer:

Right-hander Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a one-year, $3.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Archer, 33, will join the Twins' rotation and can earn up to $9.5 million this season with performance bonuses.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 28, 2022

Those incentives are a modern-day version of a games started bonus. Archer will receive them based on the number of games he either starts or pitches three innings of relief in – basically starting or being the headliner after an opener.

I like the idea of this contract quite a bit, for both Archer and the Twins. From Archer’s perspective, it’s a bet on himself with a financial cushion if things don’t work out. When he signed in Tampa Bay last year, he hadn’t pitched since 2019, and he didn’t even accrue 20 innings. He hurt his forearm in his second start of the year, missed four months, then hurt his hip not long after returning. A starting role in the majors seemed far from a certainty. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Ben Clemens gave an accounting of the league’s third basemen. Now we turn our attention to the shortstops.

Over the years, the general perception of shortstops has evolved from “Well, I guess it’s okay if he can’t hit.” to “Wow, he’s the best player on his team!”. Whereas the shortstops of old were heralded for their defensive capabilities, modern shortstops are preternatural athletes who can make a leaping grab one inning and hit a 400-foot home run the next. This season is further testament to how far the position has come: Consider the fact that 17 (!) teams are projected for three-plus wins. Ranked below are some of the league’s brightest stars and up-and-coming prospects, but also several others who, by virtue of having an average bat at the position, could become the most valuable contributors on their respective teams. Read the rest of this entry »