Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk to The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee and SB Nation’s Eric Stephen about the last series of the regular season between the tied-for-first-place Dodgers and Giants, the historic greatness of their race, the state of (and outlook for) their respective rosters, the strengths and weaknesses of each team, their secret sauces, each team’s most pleasant surprise, the highlight of their season series so far, what went wrong for the Padres, how the Dodgers and Giants compare as playoff teams, their toughest potential postseason opponents, the biggest offseason questions facing the two teams, the NL West’s future, and more, plus a postscript on Ben’s top 10 hopes for the the final month of the regular season.

Audio intro: Beulah, "Battle Cry of the West"
Audio outro: The Mountain Goats, "We Do it Different on the West Coast"

Link to FanGraphs series preview
Link to Andrew Baggarly’s series preview
Link to Grant on the gift of Dodgers-Giants
Link to Eric on past Dodgers-Giants races
Link to Eric on the 1971 race
Link to Grant on the teams’ 100-win paces
Link to Grant on the Giants being “lucky”
Link to Grant on SF’s best-case scenario
Link to Fabian Ardaya on Bellinger
Link to Dan S. on September projections
Link to BaseRuns standings
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Giants’ secret
Link to Tauchman/Pujols play
Link to Defensive Efficiency leaderboard
Link to True Blue LA podcast
Link to Baggs & Brisbee podcast
Link to latest Ringer MLB Show episode
Link to list of 1st/2nd-place WAR gaps
Link to article on Scherzer not reaching base
Link to article on Franco reaching base
Link to article on Tatis and HR/SB leaders
Link to Ben and Meg’s SSAC panel podcast

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The Twins came into 2021 with postseason aspirations, ones that were quickly dashed by an atrocious start to the season. By the trade deadline, they were dealing for the future; Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles, and J.A. Happ were all rentals, but José Berríos, who was dealt to the Blue Jays, looked like a key part of the team for both this year and next. Trading him was a calculated gamble that they could sacrifice some certainty next year for future value. Now, 2022 is in even more jeopardy: Kenta Maeda, the team’s best pitcher, will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss a good chunk of next year.

For the Twins, this is obviously brutal news. This season was already a write-off, but they had mostly done a good job of building for next year even as they disappointed in the present. Cruz aside, the team will retain most of its offensive core next year, and while Andrelton Simmons will hit free agency, with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez still in the fold, they’ll have a huge array of options for how to replace him. Heck, reunite with Cruz on another one-year deal, and they could field a solid team without any further infield starters needed (Josh Donaldson to third base, Arraez to second, and Polanco to short). Austin Martin, the centerpiece of the team’s return for Berríos, might be ready to bolster that infield depth as soon as next year, as well.

The lineup, however, isn’t the Twins’ biggest problem. It’s underperformed this year, no doubt, but their pitching has been disastrous. They’ve allowed 5.3 runs per game, the third-worst mark in the majors. It’s no sequencing fluke, either: by BaseRuns, they also have the third-worst pitching staff in the big leagues. You won’t win a lot of games if you allow so many runs, regardless of how many bombs you’re hitting on the other side of the ball.
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It’s already September, and maybe you’re still processing that fact. I’ll do you one better by pointing out that the Dodgers and Giants are about to play each other for the final time in the regular season. This is the earliest in the year that these rivals’ last series has occurred since way back in 1968, when Willie Mays and Don Drysdale were fixtures of the rivalry.

With Los Angeles and San Francisco tied atop the division and both teams on pace for 100 wins for the first time since 1962, I thought it prudent to break down what we might expect in this big weekend series.

The Series So Far

The Dodgers and Giants have split their 16 games so far (with San Francisco winning five of the last seven), featuring stellar pitching, unlikely heroes, home run robberies and blown saves. A four-game series in mid-July was full of drama, including Tyler Rogers giving up a walk-off homer to Will Smith, his second three-run outing against the Dodgers this season.

The very next night — actually the next two nights — it was Kenley Jansen who was handed a ninth-inning lead but walked off to a booing home crowd both times after giving up seven combined runs.

That’s just how this series has gone; no lead is safe from a disaster.

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The Yankees snapped a four-game skid on Wednesday against the Angels to avoid a sweep and stay two games ahead of the Red Sox in the AL wild card race. Gerrit Cole was brilliant, striking out 15 en route to his 14th win of the season. Two-out singles from Luke Voit in the third inning and Brett Gardner in the fourth plated most of the runs for the Yankees, with Aaron Judge adding insurance with a solo shot in the eighth.

Perched atop the lineup was DJ LeMahieu, who reached base three times and scored the first run of the game. It’s been a bit of a down year for the veteran second baseman, who earned MVP consideration in the 2019 and ’20 seasons. Not known for his power before that former season, he caught the power bug immediately after joining the Yankees, slugging 36 home runs in 871 plate appearances, good for one home run every 24 trips to the plate. Those aren’t huge power numbers in today’s game, but it’s a much higher frequency of home runs than he managed hitting in Coors Field half the year — three times as often, in fact.

This season has gone very differently in the home run department. LeMahieu leads the team in plate appearances (575) and games played (126) but has gone deep only nine times, a rate that’s much more in line with how he hit prior to coming to New York. So what about his performance has changed?

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It’s been a rough week, my friends, so at least end it well with another episode of Chin Music. I’m joined by our very own Jon Tayler in the co-host chair. We begin by discussing the never-ending tragedy that is the Mets and some COVID-19 news with the Nationals and MLB Network before settling into some actual baseball talk about September races and whether or not Mike Trout and Jacob deGrom should just call it a day, or at least a season.

We’re then joined by special guest Julian McWilliams, who covers the Red Sox for The Boston Globe, to discuss the COVID-19 outbreak on the team and how it affects both Boston’s chances and his ability to do his job. From there, it’s your e-mails on agents, lineup construction, and the amateur showcase circuit, plus more than a bit of music discussion and a pair of escapist TV show recommendations to help get you through these troubled times.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Helen Money.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 938

This week on the show, we welcome the new president of the National Baseball Hall of Fame before a discussion about the New York clubs going in opposite directions.

• In the first half, David Laurila talks to Josh Rawitch about his new role as they discuss his vision for the Hall of Fame, the most popular features and plaques in the museum, and how much “fame” itself weighs into player voting. They also talk about David insightfully writing back in April that Josh should get the role, and what that was like to read that suggestion from the other end. [2:21]
• After that, Dan Szymborski is joined by Jay Jaffe to talk about the Yankees and the Mets. Jay recently wrote on “Nasty Néstor” Cortes, who’s came out of nowhere to help to the thriving Yankees rotation. Meanwhile, the Mets are spiraling in the other direction and out of the playoff hunt, and the duo react to the latest bad front office news that arrives live in the middle of recording. [23:29]

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These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Robert Hassell III, CF, San Diego Padres
Level & Affiliate: High-A Fort Wayne Age: 20 Org Rank: 4 (72 overall) FV: 50
Line: 3-for-6, 3 HR, 3 K

Notes
On Wednesday night, true to his name, Hassell worked in threes. In his third game since his promotion from Low-A (where he had the third most hits and third highest average on the season), the lefty provided both homers and strikeouts in triplicate. But contrary to last night’s line, the 2020 first-rounder’s season has been characterized neither by excessive power nor a concerning K-rate; he slashed .323/.415/.482 at Low-A with a 138 wRC+, maintaining walk and strikeout rates both in the mid-teens.

While the Wednesday whiffs represent an unconcerning blip in an approach that has otherwise proven far more advanced than his age would let on (he just turned 20 a few weeks ago), the dingers — his first, second, and third at High-A — were a glimpse at the type of power that would be a welcome addition to Hassell’s profile, if he’s able to sustain it. Over the course of the night, he demonstrated his ability to hit balls out to both left and right field, and against both left- and right-handed pitchers.

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Brent Rooker has had an up-and-down rookie campaign. Demoted to Triple-A following an injury-marred April, the 26-year-old outfielder logged a 141 wRC+ with 20 home runs in 62 games with the St. Paul Saints. He’s been less productive, yet no less promising, since returning to the Twins toward the tail end of July. In 153 plate appearances, the No. 35 pick in the 2017 draft has six long balls to go with a a 91 wRC+ and a .304 wOBA.

Those numbers aren’t a mystery to Rooker, nor are the swing analytics that help dictate what he’s doing in the batter’s box. Two partial seasons into what will hopefully be a long and productive big-league career, the former Mississippi State Bulldog is more than just an up-and-coming slugger: he’s a student of hitting.

———

David Laurila: Do you view hitting as more of an art, or as more of a science?

Brent Rooker: “I think the best hitters are a combination of both. They’re very artistic in terms of what they feel and the way their bodies move. They know how to manipulate their bodies to allow them do what they need to do in order to accomplish what they want to accomplish in the box. But I also think the best guys know, statistically and analytically, what they do well and what they don’t do well. They use that to their advantage.

“Obviously, you have guys on both sides of the spectrum. Some guys are more feel guys, and others are more by the numbers and analytics. But again, I think the best guys — the truly best guys — are a combination of both.”

Laurila: That said, do you lean more toward one than the other? Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, I took a swing at a question often asked of me: Which players have helped their Hall of Fame cases the most this year? In that piece, I highlighted 10 position players, some of whom have gained significant ground via JAWS, others who reached major milestones or simply returned to productivity after injury-plagued stretches. For this dispatch, I’ll first turn my attention to the pitchers, then backtrack to cover a handful of others — position players and pitchers — in a more lightning-round fashion.

For this exercise, I’m focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, that’s the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. For relievers, I’m using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which I’ve examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. All WAR (and WPA) figures here refer to the Baseball Reference version, unless otherwise indicated.

One other thing to note: since my reference point for “old” WAR and JAWS figures dates back to January 2021, some portion of these players’ gains may be due to updates to bWAR itself, particularly via changes to ’19 and ’20 park factors and tweaks to 2017–20 Defensive Runs Saved that were announced in March, but also due to a second update to 2020 park factors that just went live on Tuesday.

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12:04

Dan Szymborski: Hits too close to home!

12:04

Dan Szymborski: Morninternoon everyone!

12:04

Dan Szymborski: A few minutes late, I was grabbing Wander Franco comps.

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Reyes is up there, but so are a number of the triple guys – Vaughan, Lazzeri, Frisch, Furcal, Fernandez

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