Welcome back, baseball! Opening Day is here. Most teams have reason to be optimistic this time of year, but there are a handful of clubs facing significant hurdles as the season gets underway. Below, I’ll layout what the best- and worst-case scenario looks like for every team in 2025.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or the MLB predictions at the now defunct FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these Opening Day rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — which are powered by a 50/50 blend of the 2025 Steamer and ZiPS projections, and RosterResource’s playing time estimates — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. The two-game Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs has been taken into account in these rankings. The delta column in the full rankings below shows the change in ranking from the pre-spring training run of the Power Rankings I did back in February. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborski banter about how much spring training stats matter, which players improved their projections the most this spring, whether prospects really have a harder time making the transition to MLB from Triple-A today, their spring training award winners, the five-ish biggest questions/storylines for each of them this MLB season, and a smattering of “bold predictions” from EW listeners. Then (1:23:29) Ben brings back the “Baseball Jobs” series by interviewing Josh Kantor, longtime Fenway Park organist, to talk about how he got his gig, his side projects, the ins and outs of his in-game responsibilities, the upcoming season, and much more, followed by a brief keyboard performance.

Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme 2”
Audio interstitial: Josh Kantor and Nancy Faust, “Sweet Caroline”
Audio outro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to 2015 spring study
Link to Hoyer quote
Link to Ben’s new prospects article
Link to Ben’s old prospects article
Link to spring champions
Link to ST team wins
Link to FG ST leaderboards
Link to five Clemens questions
Link to listener bold predictions
Link to EW predictions ballot
Link to previous Baseball Jobs pod
Link to Josh Kantor wiki
Link to Baseball Project pod
Link to Baseball Project song
Link to Kaminski pod

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Every year, most teams hold some sort of team bonding, social event during spring training. The specifics of the event vary from team to team, but frequently they include renting out a movie theater and showing some cloying, inspirational movie like The Blind Side, Cool Runnings, Rudy, or better yet, a documentary like Free Solo. Regardless of the team’s outlook on the year, the goal is to get the players amped up for the season and ready to compete on the field, even if the competition in question is for fourth place in the division.

But what if instead of taking the clichéd route, teams actually tried to select a movie that fits their current vibe, one that’s thematically on brand with the current state of their franchise? They won’t do this because spring training is a time for hope merchants to peddle their wares, even if they’re selling snake oil to sub-.500 teams. But spring training is over. It’s time to get real. So here are my movie selections for each American League team, sorted by release date from oldest to newest.

Stay tuned for the National League movie lineup in a subsequent post. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past week and a half, we’ve published our annual season preview, ranking the league’s players by position and team based on a blend of our projections (a 50/50 split between ZiPS and Steamer) and our manually maintained RosterResource playing time estimates courtesy of Jason Martinez and Jon Becker. If you happen to have missed any of those installments, you can use the navigation widget above to catch up.

Today, I’m going to summarize the results. We’ll look at some tables and pick out a few interesting tidbits in a moment, but first, it’s important to remember that this exercise captures a snapshot of how we project teams to perform now. Teams aren’t static. Since we began publishing our rankings, the Rockies traded outfielder Nolan Jones back to the Guardians, the team that drafted and developed him. The Brewers traded Mark Canha and Manuel Margot. Evan Carter, who burned so bright for the Rangers late in 2023, has been optioned as he tries to regain his stroke after an injury-riddled 2024 season. Drake Baldwin, our no. 11 overall prospect, and Cam Smith, no. 70, officially made their respective team’s Opening Day roster, as did Ryan Johnson, a 22-year-old right-handed pitcher who was drafted in the second round last year and has never thrown a pitch in affiliated ball (he ranked 11th on our Angels list as a 40+ FV prospect). And in a depressing callback to this time last year, when his signed with the Diamondbacks mere hours after our starting pitcher rankings went live, about 25 minutes after we published this year’s installment, Jordan Montgomery announced that he’ll be getting Tommy John surgery. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sorry to be the one to break this news to you, but the baseball season is starting in earnest tomorrow. While I’m sure you’re happy that you’ll once again get to watch the baseball men do the baseball thing, this also means that We Tried season is very sadly drawing to a close. This will be our fifth and final entry in the series, but as a refresher, We Tried is the term of art for an ex post facto report about a team’s interest in a player who signed elsewhere. If a beat writer reported that your favorite team had interest in a free agent, but only after that free agent became a Dodger, or if a scoops guy laundered the claim that your team took aim at a trade target and missed, I added it to the We Tried Tracker. With 49 of our Top 50 Free Agents off the board – seriously, somebody sign David Robertson already – it’s time to look back on the offseason that wasn’t. How wrong Yoda was; there’s no “do” or “do not.” There is only “try.”

As I searched for the final few additions to the tracker, I continued to refine the criteria for inclusion. For example, I decided at the last minute to honor A.J. Preller’s solemn assertion during the Winter Meetings that the Padres were “involved in, so far, almost all the catchers that have gone off the board to some degree.” I awarded them five extra We Trieds, all for catchers. That pushed them all the way up to second on our leaderboard, but they still finished dead last in our catcher positional power rankings. I also decided not to include the Roki Sasaki circus. The defining characteristic of a We Tried is that the information is publicized after the player signs, and although a few details did come out after he chose the Dodgers, nearly every part of Sasaki’s courtship involved up-to-the-minute updates. Likewise, the Orioles and Braves were both widely linked to Nathan Eovaldi early in the offseason, but once Eovaldi decided to return to the Rangers, no new information on their pursuits emerged. They didn’t capital-T try; they just – yawn – actually tried.

By my count, we bore witness to 99 We Trieds for 39 different players over the last few months. As always, I’m sure that I missed some, and I implore you to help me make it right. What a joy it would be to reach 100. If you spot an omission, please message me on Bluesky or email me at WeTriedTracker@gmail.com, which once again is a real email address that I really check. I reply to every message, and I even read everything in the spam folder. The tracker recently received an incredible offer for a “diamond facelit sign” with a three-year warrantee. I don’t know what a facelit sign is, and because the email is riddled with spelling errors, for a while I actually thought it was for a diamond facelift. I was so confused about what would happen were I to avail myself of the three-year warrantee. Would I get my money back? Would they lift my face even further? Would they replace it with a new one?

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re not familiar with Jerry Weinstein, you should be. He is a catching coach legend. After decades with the Rockies, he recently jumped to the Cubs, and lucky for us, he’s quite active online talking about catching philosophies and training. One thing he has discussed recently is “slam dunk” framing.

Some cues in baseball are universal, and slam dunk framing is one of them. It looks just like how it sounds: Catchers take their glove and quickly snap it down as if they were dunking a basketball. What’s the intention? By moving their glove down in a quick, fluid motion on pitches at the top of the zone, they’re attempting to give the impression that these pitches are lower than where they actually crossed the plate.

While this could easily just be another solo Patrick Bailey framing post, there is one other guy in particular, Cal Raleigh, who deserves to squat in the spotlight. To set the stage, here are the leaders in Strike% in Zone 12 (the upper third in the shadow zone) last season: Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not every day that a piece of baseball news makes just about everyone go, “Oh, yay, that’s nice!” but the Mariners pulled it off less than 72 hours before the start of their season. Cal Raleigh is sticking around for the long run.

Raleigh’s new contract runs from, well, now, through the end of the 2030 season, and will pay him $105 million over those six years, plus a $20 million vesting option for 2031. The extension buys out Raleigh’s previous $5.6 million arbitration settlement, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who was first to report it. Read the rest of this entry »

The last few years, I’ve had a pre-Opening Day tradition of making five bold predictions about the upcoming season. It’s a good way to talk through some of the players and teams where my opinions are different from the crowd. But bold predictions are a boom industry – the entire FanGraphs staff will be making some tomorrow, and I already drafted 10 of my own on Effectively Wild. So Meg and I came up with a great substitute: five big questions about the season. These aren’t the only big questions I have. They aren’t even necessarily the biggest questions in baseball. But they’re five storylines that I think are unresolved, and their answers will have a lot to say about how the 2025 season goes.

1. Are the Rays still the Rays?
The Rays have been doing the same player-swapping roster construction trick for more than a decade now. They operate on a shoestring budget, they consistently find ways to trade their surplus for great value, and their pitching development is some of the best in the game. They’re constantly churning out top prospects, and even after graduating Junior Caminero, they boast one of the best farm systems in baseball.

That prospect pipeline keeps on delivering, but in 2024, the wins didn’t follow. The team finished below .500 for the first time since 2017, and got outscored by 59 runs in the process. The Rays didn’t do much this winter – trading Jeffrey Springs, and signing Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim were their big moves. We’re projecting them to finish last in the AL East – albeit still above .500. What happened to the 90-win perpetual juggernaut? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Mookie Betts’s unwanted weight loss, new Statcast data on batter positioning, and whether hitters should generally move back in the box, then recap Cal Raleigh’s extension and a smattering of other buzzer-beating transactions before discussing (35:46) some of their favorite moves of the offseason. Then (1:10:31) they talk to FanGraphs writer Davy Andrews about his origin story as a writer, his greatest hits so far, and the “We Tried Tracker,” his effort to compile all the times a team reportedly tried (but failed) to acquire a player.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Davy Andrews, “Edouard Julien, Are You Gonna Rule Again?”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ohtani article
Link to Dodgers article 1
Link to Mookie article 2
Link to Mookie article 3
Link to Petriello article 1
Link to Petriello article 2
Link to Adler article
Link to Ben on moving the mound
Link to MLBTR on Raleigh
Link to Raleigh dumper thread
Link to notable transactions
Link to Ben’s Grantland article
Link to TFPIOT Tumblr
Link to Tracker wiki
Link to Too Far From Town posts
Link to Target Field post
Link to cleat cleaners post 1
Link to cleat cleaners post 2
Link to Davy’s FG archive
Link to Seinfeld clip
Link to We Tried Tracker
Link to WTT posts
Link to predictions vote

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As someone who runs a lot of projections, I’m used to being very wrong. Of the approximately 4,000 players projected every season, some 800 or so will fail to meet their 10th-percentile projection or exceed their 90th, meaning ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, will be/look horribly wrong. There’s still time before the start of the regular season to put myself into even greater jeopardy, meaning it’s time for my annual list of favorite booms and busts. The concept for these is simple, in that these are my picks for players to change how they are currently perceived. Sometimes it’s because of a projection, sometimes because of a hunch, a gut feeling, or just something I think projections might not be capturing. Since we’re going on a limb here, there will be some epic failures, and maybe [prayer emoji] even a success or two.

As usual, let’s start with a quick review of last year’s picks, this time the pitchers.

Last season was one of my weaker years, though there were a few highlights, mainly Hunter Greene and Hunter Brown. Maybe all I need are more guys named Hunter in baseball. I said I’d eat Cincinnati chili if Nelson finished the season with an ERA above four, but he missed almost the entire year with thoracic outlet syndrome, so I’ll need a ruling from the comments whether I have to face my meaty fate or if I get a mulligan because of the injury.

OK, on to the picks, before I get sidetracked into a 700-word rant about my chili proclivities. Read the rest of this entry »