New for the holidays is the FanGraphs Mug in white!

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Ben Lindbergh kicks off a short series of conversations with baseball content creators who work mainly in mediums other than writing or podcasting by talking to YouTuber Bailey Freeman of Foolish Baseball about the Mets hiring Buck Showalter and the challenge of evaluating managers, how many bases Rickey Henderson would steal today, Bailey’s origins as a baseball fan and video maker, his process for picking topics and producing videos, watching videos vs. reading articles or listening to podcasts, MLB’s video policy, how he and his videos have evolved, the tools of his trade, which baseball footage he wishes he had, his YouTube influences and recommendations, being beholden to algorithms, and much more.

Audio intro: Lucinda Williams, “Foolishness”
Audio outro: Superchunk, “Foolish”

Link to Foolish Baseball YouTube channel
Link to Foolish Bailey YouTube channel
Link to Bailey’s Patreon page
Link to Bailey’s latest Ohtani video
Link to Bailey’s Bleier video
Link to Bailey’s Henderson video
Link to Bailey’s Verlander video
Link to Bailey’s two-way revolution video
Link to Bailey’s Locastro video
Link to Bailey’s Simmons video
Link to Bailey’s Mathis video
Link to Bailey’s spring training video
Link to Bailey’s Yankees/Twins video
Link to Bailey’s Barajas video
Link to Summoning Salt YouTube channel
Link to Jomboy Media YouTube channel
Link to SportStorm YouTube channel
Link to YourFriendKyle Twitch channel
Link to history of perspective in art
Link to article about players peeing on hands
Link to Patreon trivia contest
Link to stream Stove League via Viki

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This year I have the honor of casting a Hall of Fame ballot for the second time. Jay Jaffe does as well — we both joined the BBWAA in 2010 while colleagues at Baseball Prospectus — and as Jay stated in Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, the exercise is every bit as challenging as it was 12 months ago. Defining worthiness is inherently subjective, and that would be the case even without PEDs and the character clause complicating matters. As it turned out, the latter of those two conundrum-inducers prompted me to drop one of last year’s selections. More on that in a moment.

As many of you have seen from Ryan Thibodaux’s invaluable Ballot Tracker, a number of voters remain stingy with their checkmarks. And they have that right. If you feel that only a small handful of the eligibles are worthy, you should vote accordingly. (Submitting a blank ballot is another thing entirely; the idea that no player in a given year meets acceptable standards is questionable at best.)

I am, unapologetically, “a Big-Hall” guy. For me, one of the biggest dilemmas has been deciding which of a dozen-plus deserving candidates will be excluded. Last year, Todd Helton and Jeff Kent stood out as players I agonized over and ultimately didn’t cast ballots for. The was especially true for Helton; I determined almost immediately afterward that he would get a checkmark this year. He did, while Kent — purely because there wasn’t room for him on my ballot — did not.

All 10 of the players I voted for a year ago returned to the ballot — and a pair of high-profile candidates were added — which accentuated the dilemma. By adding Helton, and one or two of the newcomers, I was going to have to drop multiple players whose numbers and impact on the game had not changed one iota. Read the rest of this entry »

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. This is my first one since the end of the World Series, but also my last one for calendar 2021, a situation that owes mainly to the volume of coverage on my Hall of Fame beat.

2:03

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, we’re in the midst of a lockout, which sucks, but we have plenty to discuss today. Before we do, I’ll call attention to today’s entry in my HOF profile series, Bobby Abreu, who makes for a nice palate-cleanser after my Bonds/Clemens/Sosa/Schilling clearinghouse post and then my update on the Omar Vizquel situation(s). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-bobb…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Also landing today is the podcast spot I did with David Laurila in which we discussed our Hall of Fame ballot coping strategies https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jay-jaffe-and-david-lauril…

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Anywhoo, there are a good number of questions in the queue, so on with the show…

2:06

Jay Jaffe: I think it has more to do with the latter, not wanting the criticism. If anything, in the last couple of years I’ve heard from some voters that they wish their outlets wouldn’t let them vote, and/or express relief that they’re not allowed to. I doubt there are many actively subverting their employers

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2020 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Bobby Abreu could do just about everything. A five-tool player with dazzling speed, a sweet left-handed stroke, and enough power to win a Home Run Derby, he was also one of the game’s most patient, disciplined hitters, able to wear down a pitcher and unafraid to hit with two strikes. While routinely reaching the traditional seasonal plateaus that tend to get noticed — a .300 batting average (six times), 20 homers (nine times), 30 steals (six times), 100 runs scored and batted in (eight times apiece) — he was nonetheless a stathead favorite for his ability to take a walk (100 or more eight years in a row) and his high on-base percentages (.400 or better eight times). And he was durable, playing 151 games or more in 13 straight seasons. “To me, Bobby’s Tony Gwynn with power,” said Phillies hitting coach Hal McRae in 1999.

“Bobby was way ahead of his time [with] regards to working pitchers,” said his former manager Larry Bowa when presenting him for induction into the Phillies Wall of Fame in 2019. “In an era when guys were swinging for the fences, Bobby never strayed from his game. Because of his speed, a walk would turn into a double. He was cool under pressure, and always in control of his at-bats. He was the best combination of power, speed, and patience at the plate.” Read the rest of this entry »

The off-season may be at a standstill, but prospect season is rolling along, so I’m joined by returning co-host Eric Longenhagen for some in-depth breakdowns on this week’s Chin Music. After a quick discussion of weather wackiness, very old houses, and watching winter league baseball, Eric and I spend nearly an hour walking through the systems of the Cubs, Angels, and Athletics, whose prospect lists were published this week at FanGraphs. Then we are joined by Ryan Thibodaux, better know as the person behind The Baseball Hall Of Fame Tracker, who explains (or at least tries to) why he does that, why some people take this way too seriously, and believe it or not, accupuncture. Then it’s your emails on Frankenstein players and our baseball movie ideas, followed by some Moments of Culture. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Dead Best.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes/Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Warning One: While ostensibly a podcast about baseball, these conversations often veer into other subjects.

Warning Two: There is explicit language.

Run Time: 2:17:19

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

The outfield, the DH, and the catcher from the 2017 championship team are long gone, yet the Astros have carried on with nary a regret. Joining them on the ex-Astro list is the team’s former phenom, Carlos Correa. One could hardly call him a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but his injury history appears to have been enough to scare Houston off making a decade-long bet on him. The franchise has moved on from stars before, and it will again. But will it pay a serious short-term hit in the win department?

Honestly? No. Now, there’s no denying that a downgrade at shortstop is inevitable. But given Correa’s injury history, you can’t really pencil him in for 150 games. It was likely that the Plan B’s would get at least some playing time, and if 2022 was anything like 2017–19, that time could be substantial. ZiPS projects that we’re talking about a three-win hit for Houston. When you have a shortstop prospect slugging .600 in Triple-A, as Jeremy Peña just missed doing in 2021, it’s hard not to use that player! The more Peña and the less Aledmys Díaz that Houston gets, the better the post-Correa era will feel at the start.

Elsewhere, the Astros don’t really have much in the way of surprises. They have some dizzying highs in the trio of Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez, and they avoid being awful anywhere. Even the catcher projections aren’t really that lousy. With catcher defense extremely tricky to quantify, I’m certainly open to the idea that Martín Maldonado’s defense is better than our crude numbers have captured.

As usual, I have zero faith in Yuli Gurriel’s projection. He’ll eventually suffer age-related decline, but I don’t know if it’ll be at 38 or 48 or 58. I’m not sure that when the sun enters its red giant phase, the last vestige of life on Earth isn’t going to be Yuli still hitting .290.
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Deep into the dog days of the offseason, it’s time to get extreme. You can crack open a Mountain Dew and do some skateboard tricks if you’d like. I won’t be joining you, though; I’m a little old for the skateboard tricks, and while I had some delicious watermelon-flavored Dew earlier this year, I’m drinking a peppermint tea while I write this. Instead, for my contribution to being extreme, I’m going to show you some home runs that were hit extremely far away from the center of the strike zone.

What’s that? This is an extremely cheesy introduction? You’re right again! The truth is, I wasn’t really sure how to introduce an article that will mainly be funny GIFs of home runs. Instead of spending a long time coming up with the best possible introduction, though, I’m just doing it off the cuff. Home runs: you love them. Home run GIFs: I love making them. Let’s have a party! Here are the five most extreme (for a very specific definition of extreme) home runs of 2021.
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