“I was at dinner with our scout in Japan and he made a comment that even truck drivers throw 95 over here,” said Oakland’s Assistant General Manager Dan Feinstein. “That caught my attention. I said, ‘If that’s true, maybe we should be trying out some of these truck drivers.'”

Feinstein soon decided to run an experiment. Oakland advertised an open tryout for pitchers and invited players with a college pedigree to send video to the A’s scouting department. From there, the team invited 60 of them to throw in front of scouts. One of them, right-hander Shohei Tomioka, bumped 95 on the gun, which impressed Oakland enough to offer him a contract then and there. “We call it the truck driver tryout,” Feinstein said with a chuckle.

Tomioka’s story was only possible because of a brilliant combination of scouting and technology, with a dash of luck mixed in. His signing is also an indication that the international talent market is laden with players just waiting to be discovered. See, Tomioka wasn’t simply a truck driver with a live arm. He was an experienced pitcher, a graduate of one of Tokyo’s top baseball programs — he was just never seen at the right time by the right people. By the time Oakland discovered him, he was loitering in a small local league. “There’s a lot of independent ball over there,” Feinstein says, “and he had been pitching in one of these kind of obscure leagues. He was free to try out and was throwing 95 so we signed him.”

For anyone lamenting the rise of big tech in baseball or the demise of the scout, Tomioka is living proof that, for good and for ill, an element of the unpredictable remains in the game. His signing demonstrates the value of having a robust international department, while also highlighting how fertile the international market is today, and how teams that invest abroad now stand to reap a competitive advantage in the years to come. To get a better sense of how that might develop, let’s take a deeper dive into how teams scout internationally today. Read the rest of this entry »

Xzavion Curry is a prospect-on-the-rise in the Cleveland organization. A seventh-round pick in 2019 out of Georgia Tech, the 23-year-old right-hander is 8-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 18 starts between Low-A Lynchburg and High-A Lake County. With the lion’s share at the latter, Curry has allowed just 65 hits in 93 innings. Moreover, he’s fanned 118 batters and issued just 16 free passes.

Command is Curry’s forte, but it’s not his only attribute. As our own Eric Longenhagen wrote in early June, the 5-foot-11, 195-pound hurler’s “vertical arm slot creates angle and carry on a fastball that plays well at the letters.” Augmenting Curry’s 91-94 mph four-seamer are a curveball, a slider, and a changeup.

He’s only been a full-time pitcher for a handful of years. Curry came to Georgia Tech as a two-way player, having excelled both on the mound and at short as an Atlanta-area prep. That his college coaches made him a full-time pitcher is a testament to changing times. Curry is African-American, and Black players have historically been channeled into position-player roles. Black pitchers have been at a premium.

“That does enter my mind,” said Curry, who had a 17-inning scoreless streak come to an end earlier this week. “As I go around to different places, and play different teams, I don’t really see a lot of Black pitchers. So that is something I’ve noticed, but as the younger generation goes forward, those guys just keep getting better and better. We have a couple in our organization, and I’m pretty sure we’ll start to see more and more Black pitchers.”

Curry cited a different sport when addressing his plus command. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Blue Jays’ hot streak and playoff outlook and the meaning of clutchness, then meet major leaguers Andy Ibáñez of the Rangers and Janson Junk of the Angels. After that (37:07), they’re joined by Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus to discuss the state of starting pitching, the future of pitcher usage, and the ebb and flow of competitive balance in MLB.

Audio intro: Magnolia Electric Co., "North Star"
Audio interstitial: Justus Proffit, "Split Into"
Audio outro: Dag, "Living in the Balance"

Link to Michael Baumann on the Jays
Link to Mike Baumanns podcast
Link to AL East playoff odds graph
Link to Levi Weaver on Ibáñez’s debut
Link to Ibáñez on his call-up
Link to Junk’s FG Audio episode
Link to last part of Rob’s starter series
Link to last part of Rob’s TTOP series
Link to Rob on limiting pitcher usage
Link to FiveThirtyEight on pitcher usage
Link to Twins’ seven-man rotation
Link to Ben on bullpenning
Link to Russell Carleton on bullpenning
Link to Ben on pitching prospects
Link to Gerald Schifman on options use
Link to Russell on four-man rotations
Link to Russell on six-man rotations
Link to Russell on swingmen
Link to Russell on one-inning relievers
Link to Rob on mobility vs. inequality
Link to Rob on competitive balance
Link to Ben on “hope and faith”

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In one of the oddest twists of the season, the Atlanta Braves have seen their playoff odds skyrocket after losing one of the league’s best players, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a torn ACL that prematurely ended his 2021 season. Now up to 81.9% odds of making the postseason from a low of a 7% chance — the 2019 Nationals never dipped under 22% in our projections — the Braves seem much more likely to be successful than not. And regardless of whether the season ends on a positive note, all of Atlanta’s key contributors are under team control in 2022 with one exception. But that exception is quite notable: 2020 National League MVP Freddie Freeman.

The general assumption around baseball — one that I also hold — has been that Freeman will of course be back with the Braves in 2022. After 12 seasons in Atlanta, during which Freeman was quite purposefully kept as the face of the team even while the Braves were aggressively rebuilding several years ago, seeing him in another uniform would just seem odd, almost on par with seeing Derek Jeter in Dodger Blue or Cal Ripken Jr. in green and gold. But the fates don’t care about looking bizarre, and the fact remains is that we’re entering mid-September, and player and team have yet come to an agreement on a contract extension. Jon Heyman reported on Thursday that there was still a gap between Freeman and the Braves:

Freddie Freeman and Braves have been talking but there’s still a gap so free agency appears a surprisingly strong possibility. Both sides want to get it done and that’s the likelihood eventually. Reminiscent of Turner/LAD and HOF Jeter/NYY talks, great FA who stayed. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) September 9, 2021

Read the rest of this entry »

2:03

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chats. I’m just back from a bit more than 48 hours in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony; I wrote about the Class of 2020’s long road there https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-class-of-2020-nears-the-…

2:04

Jay Jaffe: While in Cooperstown I put together Twitter threads on the 10 Hall of Famers who died in 2020-21, each of whom I covered at FanGraphs Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe 10 Hall of Famers died in 2020 and ’21. At Induction Day, the Hall of Fame paid tribute in a very well-done video mlb.com/video/remember… Earlier today, as I went through the Hall’s Plaque Gallery, I snapped photos of their plaques to link to tributes I wrote @fangraphs. (1/11) 9 Sep 2021

2:05

Jay Jaffe: and another of highlights of my 1-hour blaze through the Hall to see some old favorites and new exhibits Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe So yesterday I blasted through the @baseballhall in an hour to visit a few favorite little spots and see a few new things. I snapped a bunch of photos along the way. Threading here. If you missed my tribute series to the 10 HOFers who passed in 2020-21, that’s here: Jay Jaffe@jay_jaffe 10 Hall of Famers died in 2020 and ’21. At Induction Day, the Hall of Fame paid tribute in a very well-done video mlb.com/video/remember… Earlier today, as I went through the Hall’s Plaque Gallery, I snapped photos of their plaques to link to tributes I wrote @fangraphs. (1/11) 9 Sep 2021

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Today I kicked off the annual Team Entropy series https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-back-to-somewhat-nor…

2:05	Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
Level & Affiliate: High-A Jersey Shore Age: 21 Org Rank: 9 FV: 45
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 3 SB, K

Notes
Rojas was called up to High-A at the beginning of the month and has gone 12 for 30, slashing .400/.486/.633 since the promotion. He hit his second home run at the new level on Thursday, taking advantage of a hanging breaking ball and sending it over the left field fence. But perhaps most notable on Thursday were his three steals (two of second base and one of third). He hadn’t yet put his wheels on display at the higher level, stealing just one High-A bag prior to last night’s contest, but his speed was a prominent part of his pre-promotion profile; Rojas’ 25 swipes placed him within the top 20 base stealers in all of Low-A this season. Rojas’ plate discipline has long been a question, but his walk rate has been higher in 2021 than in previous seasons and for what it’s worth, he’s walked more than he’s struck out at High-A so far, meaning there’s reason to believe his power/speed combo could be bolstered with a more mature approach as he continues to develop. Read the rest of this entry »

Less than four weeks remain in the 2021 regular season, and while the coronavirus pandemic continues due to the Delta surge, MLB is back to some semblance of normalcy (though don’t tell that to the Red Sox). We’ve got a 162-game regular season, a comprehensible 10-team postseason format, the possibility of actual tiebreaker games being played if necessary — all of which were off the table last season — and no neutral sites. We’ve got some real playoff races as well, with the potential to produce end-of-season chaos.

Welcome back to Team Entropy. If you’re new here, don’t worry, I’ll catch you up.

A decade ago, during the wild 2011 races that resulted in the Rays and Cardinals snatching spots away from the collapsing Red Sox and Braves, respectively, on the season’s final day, I coined the phrase “Team Entropy” — taking a page from the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which states that all systems tend toward disorder — to describe the phenomenon of rooting for scenarios that produced such mayhem. I’ve returned to the concept annually, tracking the possibilities for end-of-season, multi-team pileups that would require MLB to deviate from its previously scheduled programming.

The idea is that if you’re a die-hard fan of a team trying to secure (or avoid blowing) a playoff spot, flag-waving for your squad of choice takes precedence, but if you’ve embraced the modern day’s maximalist menu of options that allow one not just to watch scoreboards but also to view multiple games on multiple gadgets, you want more. More baseball in the form of final-weekend division and Wild Card races. More baseball in the form of extra innings and tiebreaker scenarios topped with mustard and sauerkraut (though alas, the dastardly Manfred Man will still be mucking up those tiebreakers if they go past nine innings). You have TVs, laptops, tablets, and phones stacked like a Nam June Paik installation so you can monitor all the action at once. You want the MLB schedule-makers to contemplate entering the Federal Witness Protection Program instead of untangling once-far-fetched scenarios. If all that sounds familiar, you’re one of us. Read the rest of this entry »

In the years after being drafted by the Los Angeles Angels 10th overall in 2017, Jo Adell was one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. He spent the next few season flying up prospect lists around the industry; at FanGraphs, Adell ranked 66th overall in 2018, 11th in 2019, and fourth going into 2020. Last year, he made his much-hyped debut but it went about as poorly as 38 games and 132 plate appearances can go. He struck out a shocking 41.7% of the time, with an abysmal 29 wRC+. When combined with his surprisingly poor defense, he ended up being the least valuable player in baseball last season.

Adell spent his offseason retooling his swing and sharpening his defense. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya had this to say about Adell’s changes:

“One day in the cage, he started to cut things down. He held his hands higher, reducing their movement before the pitch. He focused on putting his body in a position to consistently be on time and athletic, rotating through his hips to generate power instead of attempting to force it. He ditched his leg kick, opting for a toe tap that gave him more of a window to stay on time and on plane with a flatter overall approach.”

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve always been a huge Darin Ruf fan, so getting to write about his 2021 success is a little bit more meaningful to me than it would be for almost any other player. Ruf is the last player I remember my grandfather singling out before he passed away, with the thought that Ruf, then a young prospect in the Phillies system, had the potential to be a productive big leaguer for our favorite team.

That was nine years ago. The Phillies promoted Ruf in late 2012 for his first cup of major league coffee, but he never amassed more than 297 plate appearances in any season for them. The bat was decent — Ruf posted a 105 wRC+ over 833 plate appearances, including a 125 wRC+ during his 2013 rookie season — but poor defensive numbers kept him barely above replacement-level in almost 300 games with Philadelphia. He was traded to the Dodgers in November of 2016, and even before he had an opportunity to make his organizational debut, Ruf’s contract was purchased by the Samsung Lions of the KBO. For three years, he raked in Asia, earning himself a minor league deal with the Giants for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. (I was pretty excited.) A year later, he’s now the best hitter on a playoff-bound team (Kris Bryant is a notable omission from this list — he has a 119 wRC+ in 128 plate appearances with the Giants so far):

It’s no secret that the Giants have been receiving incredible production across their entire lineup. Their position players have posted a collective 113 wRC+ this season, a figure that ranks second in the majors among teams’ non-pitchers. But even in a lineup filled with players having above-average offensive seasons, Ruf stands out with his .279/.401/.544 slashline and 155 wRC+. That wRC+ ranks seventh in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances overall, sandwiched between Juan Soto (156) and Shohei Ohtani (154). That’s pretty phenomenal company, and it inspires two obvious questions. First, how did Ruf become one of the best hitters in baseball, at least this season? And, of course, how sustainable is this? Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 939

On this week’s episode, we talk to one of the radio voices for Cleveland before a conversation about the Dominican Winter League and its recent draft.

• To start us off, David Laurila welcomes Jim Rosenhaus, radio broadcaster for the soon-to-be Guardians. David and Jim discuss the club’s name change and the work that went into it, as well as the vast amount of work still to do. The pair also talk about Jim’s path to a major league microphone, including a number of impressive teams and players he covered along the way. We also hear about Cleveland’s World Series appearance in 2016, Terry Francona’s potential future in Cleveland and the Hall of Fame, and what it’s like to share a booth with Tom Hamilton. [2:52]
• After that, Eric Longenhagen is joined by Brendan Gawlowski to review the results of the LIDOM draft that occurred on Wednesday. The duo explain how the league and its draft work before detailing how each of the six clubs did and the impressive prospects who could see some playing time this winter. Eric and Brendan also rave about the league’s improved streaming access in recent years, as well as the many memorable players who can be seen playing there. [27:46]

Read the rest of this entry »

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