Remember when the Rockies attempted to assemble a super-mega bullpen? During the 2017-18 offseason, the team committed a combined $106 million to Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and the protagonist of this article, Bryan Shaw. What followed was a disaster. The trio put up just 0.4 WAR while part of the Rockies bullpen, a miserable return on investment.

Each pitcher had his own flaws, but none was worse than Shaw, who dragged down an already disappointing total with -0.5 WAR over a two-year span. If you’re not too familiar with him, Shaw is synonymous with his cutter, which he’s thrown upwards to 80% of the time in his career. It’s a fantastic pitch, featuring some of the league’s best horizontal movement in tandem with ample rise. The problem: In Colorado, the high altitude suppresses magnus force, the source of backspin and thus vertical break. Many of Shaw’s cutters became extremely hittable in this new environment – his Hard Hit rate jumped from 28.6% in 2017 to 39.7% the following year.

That’s where the story ended, for a while. Even at FanGraphs, our last mention of Shaw was in a Sunday Notes column back in 2019. Two years later, Bryan Shaw is now an essential part of Cleveland’s bullpen, his former home, with a 1.42 ERA and 3.56 FIP. Talk about a resurgence! What’s more, it’s not as if he’s added a secret new pitch. He still throws the cutter as often as he did years ago. Read the rest of this entry »

If you missed yesterday’s post, I’m spending a few days this week focusing on the college postseason, which began yesterday. For those who missed yesterday’s action, this YouTube channel and many like it post “highlights” consisting of the end of each plate appearance. You get a good feel for the flow of the whole game in about 15 minutes. They’re a great resource if you want to follow college baseball and softball but don’t have ESPN+. Below I have brief previews for the tournaments that begin today. This is done with a focus on the groupings with prospects, and the ones people can watch on streaming services (again, mostly on ESPN+). I’ll also be citing work from D1Baseball and Baseball America a lot. They are both indispensable resources for college coverage.

The best reason to watch the Big 12 tournament is to see Jace Jung hit. The COVID freshman posted a .366/.496/.766 line this year, was tied for fifth in the country with 20 homers, and had 46 walks against 35 strikeouts. He’s built a lot like his brother, Josh, the top Rangers prospect, except he’s left-handed, has better feel for turning on pitches than Josh did at the same stage, and plays second base rather than third. Plus, the younger Jung’s style of hitting is cool, and totally his own. Tech catcher Braxton Fulford has rare power for the position, as does COVID freshman shortstop Cal Conley, who is college baseball’s version of Brad Miller. All three Red Raider home run leaders play up the middle positions. Righty Brandon Birdsell muscles up and sits 95-plus pretty consistently, too. Tech is fun and talented. Read the rest of this entry »

David Hamilton didn’t raise his stock in his junior year at the University of Texas. He never got the opportunity. On the heels of a sophomore season that saw him put up a .404 OBP and pilfer 31 bases, the speedy shortstop suffered a torn Achilles tendon in a scooter accident. The date was January 11, 2019, the motorized scooter was a Lime, and the upshot was Hamilton lasting until the 253nd pick of that summer’s draft.

The 5-foot-11, 175 pound San Marcos, Texas native could end up being be an eighth-round steal. Finally getting his feet wet in organized ball, Hamilton is off to a pedestrian start with the bat — a .250/.324/.359 slash line in 71 plate appearances — but the tools are real. Especially the wheels. Hitting near the top of the order for Milwaukee’s High-A affiliate, the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, Hamilton has legged out a pair of triples and is 10-for-11 in stolen base attempts.

The 23-year-old middle infielder aspires to swipe 50 bags this year, and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll do just that. Augmenting his plus speed — Hamilton shared that he’s run a 6.4 sixty and a 4.4 forty — is an experimental rule designed to reward jackrabbits. Read the rest of this entry »

The Lineup Tracker is the latest addition to our RosterResource collection at FanGraphs. This newest feature is an extension of our “Projected Go-To Lineups vs RHP” on the RosterResource depth charts, allowing readers to pick up on trends by providing a regularly updated look at where every player has batted in the order and lined up defensively throughout the season. The link to this feature can be found in the RosterResource drop-down menu under “In-Season Tools”.

I’ll be explaining the Lineup Tracker in detail on today’s episode of The RosterResource Show, which will air live at 4:30 PM PT/7:30 PM ET on Twitch and the FanGraphs homepage. It will be the first topic covered.

As has been the case with the last few RosterResource additions, including the Closer Depth Chart, Transaction Tracker, and Injury Report, we have several ideas that would improve this feature once we circle back around for upgrades. We have only one remaining feature to build — the Schedule Grid/Probable Starting Pitchers — that had been part of the RosterResource website prior to joining FanGraphs. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the scant separation between the top teams in each division and the division races they find the most intriguing, Buster Posey, Scott Kazmir, and other old Giants, Isiah Kiner-Falefa backing up his objection to coming in last on FanGraphs’ shortstop positional power ranking, Mariners catcher José Godoy becoming the 20,000th major leaguer (or not) and the factors that influence the way we remember history, Erik Kratz alleging that the Rockies and (seemingly) Dodgers stole signs illegally and whether the world needs another act to the sign-stealing saga, Joe West breaking the record for most games umpired and the Hall of Fame umpire drought, the motley roster of the U.S. Olympic baseball team, the latest in Oakland ballpark brinksmanship, the Hanshin Tigers’ “Curse of the Colonel,” Zach Plesac’s poor undressing skills, and a Stat Blast about new Brewers shortstop Willy Adames and extreme reverse home-road splits.

Audio intro: Ramones, "Don’t Come Close"
Audio outro: George Harrison, "Any Road"

Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to Jay Jaffe on Kazmir
Link to story about Kiner-Falefa
Link to FanGraphs shortstop WAR leaders
Link to story about Godoy
Link to John Thorn on the National Association
Link to story about Kratz’s comments
Link to 2018 story about the Brewers and Dodgers
Link to Episode 1505 (on sign stealing)
Link to list of Hall of Fame umpires
Link to Adam Darowski on Hall of Fame umps
Link to AP story about West
Link to Kill the Umpire on YouTube
Link to Team USA roster
Link to list of winter/summer medalists
Link to story about Rays lawsuit
Link to Alex Coffey on Oakland’s ballpark
Link to A’s postgame show walkout
Link to Curse of the Colonel Wiki
Link to story about Adames at the Trop
Link to Stat Blast home/road splits data

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There are very few Monday games on the minor league baseball schedule this year, so when the opportunity presents itself, I plan on mixing it up for the Tuesday editions of Daily Prospect Notes. Today begins conference tournament play for a large portion of Division I baseball. Much of the week’s action can be seen if you have an ESPN+ subscription, which is $6 a month. Absent a cable subscription, I don’t think that gets you the SEC or ACC games until the last few make their way onto the main ESPN channels, but between what you will see of the conference tourneys plus the entirety of the College World Series, I think you’d get your money’s worth if you ponied up for the next two months, and I’m not paid to say that.

This is also a convenient time to direct your attention to college baseball. The regular-season narratives are now tied up in neat little packages that will be presented on the broadcasts throughout the week, so you’ll be brought up to speed and know what the stakes are pretty quickly. The conference tournaments will help shape the eventual field of 64 teams in national postseason play, and they’re also heavily-scouted events due to the high concentration of talent. The way players perform here and during the College World Series carries a little extra weight in the draft room because it’s the last time they’re seen before the draft, though that may be less true this year since the later draft dates leave room for more private workouts than in a typical year.

Below I have brief previews for the tournaments that begin today. I’ll have another edition tomorrow for the other conferences, with a focus on the groupings with prospects and the ones people can watch. I’ll also be citing work from D1Baseball and Baseball America a lot. They are both indispensable resources for college coverage. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite losing Corey Seager to a broken right hand, getting less-than-vintage work from Mookie Betts, and continuing to await the return of Cody Bellinger from a hairline fracture of his left fibula, the Dodgers have won seven straight games and 11 of 12 to move within half a game of first place in the NL West. Leading the way on the offensive side — indeed, leading the entire majors from an offensive standpoint over the past two weeks — has been Max Muncy. After a down 2020 season and a dismal slump that more or less coincided with the team’s 5-15 tailspin, the 30-year-old infielder has seen some adjustments to his approach at the plate pay off.

This past weekend, Muncy helped the Dodgers to a three-game sweep of the division-leading Giants by homering twice and getting on base a total of six times in Saturday and Sunday’s wins. After taking Friday night off save for a late-inning defensive cameo to replace Albert Pujols, he opened the scoring on Saturday by putting one into McCovey Cove at the expense of Scott Kazmir, who was making his first major league appearance since September 23, 2016.

As best we can tell, Muncy did not suggest that Kazmir go get the ball out of the ocean, as he did for Madison Bumgarner on his previous splash hit in 2019. Sunday’s homer was window dressing in a rout; he hit one off reliever Sam Selman, who replaced Anthony DeSclafani after the Giants’ starter was rocked for 10 runs in 2.2 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll spare you the description of how I came up with the idea for this article. There was a lot of Alex Rodriguez’s announcing involved, and this is a family website, so my opinions on that will remain undiscussed. The point is, though, that it made me wonder about something I used to take for granted but have increasingly questioned: how do pitchers change their game plan with a runner on third base?

Depending on who you talk to, it might matter a lot or a little. Maybe pitchers won’t be willing to bounce one. Maybe they’ll pitch to a strikeout (assuming fewer than two outs), trying to keep the run from scoring. Maybe pitchers will completely ignore the runner on third and pitch normally. I’m legitimately uncertain. Not I think it’s 50% likely to be one and 50% likely to be the other — I have absolutely no idea how to weigh the relevant probabilities.

First things first; what about those bounced pitches? This is a classic announcer trope, but it’s a trope for a reason; throwing a pitch in the dirt really is more dangerous with a runner on third. Through the magic of run expectancy tables, we can see how much a one-base advancement costs the fielding team, based on whether there’s a runner on first, second, or third (I ignored other base/out states for brevity’s sake):

With no one out, everything is more or less the same; that runner on third was pretty likely to score anyway, in fact. As the outs pile up, allowing the runner from third to score hurts more and more — quite logical. Read the rest of this entry »

With six weeks until the draft, things are more muddled than ever at the top. If anything, the range of possibilities is continuing to widen. There is still an entire college postseason left to go, as well as what are sure to be some difficult signability discussions that move individual needles significantly. In a dramatic turn of events, it suddenly looks as if the Pittsburgh Pirates are focused on positions players over pitchers with the first pick in the draft. Instead of doing a mock this early (we’ll have one soon, though more to share information than to try to pull a Kreskin with so much time until Day One), I decided to set the current odds for the first overall pick.

The Odds

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA): 3-1

“Marcelo Mayer or Jordan Lawlar?” is the most pressing question for those considering the first pick in the draft, and when I polled top scouts and executives, there was a nearly 50/50 split in their responses. “Mayer should be 1-1, and I don’t think it should really be a conversation,” said one scouting executive. “In terms of pound-for-pound talent, he’s the number one guy. Left-handed, good stick, future power, and plays up the middle.” Among his detractors, there are some questions concerning the up-the-middle aspect of Mayer’s game. While he makes every play and at times can be a flashy defender with plus hands, smooth transfers, a well above-average arm and excellent instincts, he’s also a big-framed kid with below-average run times coming out of a slightly awkward gait. For scouts concerned about this, Mayer becomes a future third baseman; for those who believe in all of the defensive tools beyond the twitch, he’s more comparable to Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Packy Naughton, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Salt Lake Age: 25 Org Rank: TBD  FV: 40
Line: 7.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K

Notes
After he was sitting in the mid-80s in the time surrounding the 2020 shutdown, Naughton’s velocity has rebounded and he’s once again living in the 90-92 range with his tailing fastball. He’s another lefty of the east/west variety, relying on some mechanical funk, working his tailing fastball to both corners, and mixing in three secondary pitches. While Naughton locates his slider to his glove side very consistently, the same way a lot of over-achieving, soft-tossing lefties do, many of them have been a little too far away from the zone to be competitive and the pitch is average on its own. The same is true of his changeup. Naughton’s changeup execution is less consistent than is typical for pitchers who throw this hard but still end up as successful back-of-the-rotation types. He’s looking more like a depth starter than a true No. 5 at this point, but it’s good to see that his velocity has bounced back and that he’s pounding the strike zone like usual. Read the rest of this entry »