Jorge Polanco played the hero on Friday night, ending the epic Division Series Game 5 with an RBI single in the 15th inning off the Tigers’ Tommy Kahnle. Two nights later, in the American League Championship Series opener in Toronto, Polanco added to his October highlight reel with a pair of late-inning RBI singles against Blue Jays relievers, the first of which gave Seattle the lead. The switch-hitting second baseman wasn’t the only Mariner who came up big, as Bryce Miller tossed six strong innings on three days of rest, Cal Raleigh clubbed a game-tying solo homer, and three relievers turned in perfect innings as the Mariners took Game 1 in Toronto, 3-1.

In marked contrast to the four-hour and 58-minute Division Series finale that allowed Seattle to advance, this was a comparatively concise and fast-paced game, completed in two hours and 48 minutes. After throwing 209 pitches to the Tigers on Friday night, the Mariners mercifully needed just an even 100 pitches to dispatch the Blue Jays while giving up just two hits.

For as compelling a matchup as an ALCS pitting the two 1977 expansion teams — one seeking its first World Series berth in 32 years, the other its first-ever pennant — the pairing of Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman against Miller appeared to be a mismatch based on their respective arcs. Coming off a strong regular season and a stellar Division Series Game 1 start against the Yankees, and with seven days of rest under his belt, Gausman appeared to have quite the advantage on Miller, who scuffled this year due to injuries, took an early exit in his Division Series Game 4 start against the Tigers, and started on Sunday only because ALDS Game 2 starter Luis Castillo and Game 3 starter Logan Gilbert were both called upon in relief during the extra innings of Game 5. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the first lessons we learn about life is that it’s rarely fair. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Toronto Blue Jays are historical doormats, but both franchises have been plagued over the last three decades by a lack of postseason success, if they reached the playoffs at all.

After the Jays won the 1993 World Series, it was 22 years until they made another postseason. Toronto has a lot of recent October appearances, but finished last in the AL East in 2024 and came into the 2025 playoffs after being swept out of the wild card round in its last three opportunities, including by Seattle in 2022. Aside from that series three years ago, the Mariners have had it even worse: They’ve never won a World Series — never even played in one — and their 2022 postseason appearance snapped a 21-year playoff drought. So the 2025 ALCS is a pretty big deal for both teams, as someone is going to face the Brewers or Dodgers for baseball’s championship. Read the rest of this entry »

And just like that, the postseason field is down to four teams. Tonight, the Blue Jays host the Mariners for Game 1 of the ALCS; tomorrow, the NLCS between the Brewers and Dodgers gets underway in Milwaukee. Two of those four clubs advanced to the CS in ridiculous fashion. First, on Thursday, Los Angeles walked off the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS when, with the bases loaded and two outs, Orion Kerkering panicked after recovering a deflected comebacker and airmailed his throw home instead of tossing to first for the sure out. In his recap of the game, Ben Clemens dubbed the play “Orion’s Melt.” Then, on Friday night, the Mariners and Tigers played 15 innings of baseball before Jorge Polanco ripped a walk-off single into right field.

As always, we’re writing about everything going on during the postseason. You can find Davy Andrews’ recap of Milwaukee’s Game 5 win over the Cubs from last night here. Later today, Dan Szymborski is previewing the ALCS, then Jay Jaffe will have Game 1 covered for you tonight.

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I’d like to remind you all of a quick programming note. We’re still doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but like today, we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. Our plan is to do one before every postseason round. Also, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie MacIver has caught a lot of power arms since entering pro ball in 2018. Some were in Sacramento this season — the 28-year-old University of Washington product spent a chunk of the summer with the Athletics, backing up Shea Langeliers — but none of those hurlers stand out as having the best raw stuff he’s been behind the dish for. That distinction belongs to a former Colorado Rockies farmhand whose brief major-league ledger includes a 22.09 ERA and a 22.7% walk rate over five appearances comprising three-and-a-third innings.

“I caught a guy named Riley Pint,” said MacIver, citing the right-handed flamethrower whom the Rockies drafted fourth overall in 2016 out of an Overland, Kansas high school. “To this day, he has the best stuff I’ve ever seen. I caught him from Low-A all the way through Triple-A, so I was on the ride with him the whole time.”

That ride isn’t necessarily over. Pint is just 27 years old, and while he missed the 2025 season with an injury, the arm is indeed special. MacIver caught him as recently as 2024, and it’s being Pint, and not recent teammate Mason Miller, who he cited speaks volumes.

“When we were in Low-A, it was 102 [mph] all over the place,” MacIver told me. “Then he started throwing a sinker. We were at Driveline together and he was throwing sinkers that were registering as left-handed curveballs on the TrackMan. He could make the ball move like nothing else. His sinker would be like negative-eight, and then he would throw a true sweeper that was Morales-like with the horizontal, but at 87 [mph]. Read the rest of this entry »

The house always wins. In the National League Divisional Series between the Brewers and the Cubs, the home team won every game. Game 5, in which both teams ran out of trusted starters and turned to their bullpens, ended up being the lowest scoring game of the series. The scoring was limited to four solo home runs, and although the Cubs hit 57 more homers than the Brewers during the regular season and two more during this NLDS, the Brewers powered up when it counted. With home runs from William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and Brice Turang, they beat the Cubs, 3-1, and will host the Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Monday.

Just as they’d done during the regular season, the two teams came as close as they possibly could to splitting the series. The Cubs took the regular season series, 7-6, and the Brewers have now taken the Divisional Series, 3-2, leaving the teams tied at nine. The Cubs will return to Chicago and ponder how to improve a roster that now has a massive, Kyle Tucker-shaped hole in the outfield. The Brewers are headed to the Championship Series for the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since 2018, when they lost to the Dodgers. After seven years, they’ll have the chance for revenge.

Although bullpen games involve plenty of mixing and matching, the early plans seemed pretty well scripted. Milwaukee came out of the gate with the big guns, hoping Trevor Megill could be the first pitcher of the entire series to hold the Cubs scoreless in the first inning, before Pat Murphy looked to Jacob Misiorowski for four. After that, the Brewers had the rest of their bullpen ready to match up, thanks to an off day on Friday. “The pitching guys, myself and Matt Arnold, we just sat in a room and just talked about the possibilities and considered a ton of factors,” said Murphy in the pregame press conference. “But we settled on Megill. He’s going to pitch tonight, regardless.” Read the rest of this entry »

SEATTLE — On a per-game basis during the regular season, the Mariners and Tigers both scored and allowed roughly the same number of runs — 4.70 and 4.28, respectively. Through the first four games of the best-of-five ALDS, each team eked out a one-run win and each team triumphed in something of a laugher. Both teams won one game at home and one game on the road, and both teams relied extensively on their bullpens. Heading into Game 5 on Friday night in Seattle, it was clear one team was going to need to do something to distinguish itself. These teams entered the night locked in a dead heat, having played matching hands for much of the series and needing a new strategy, something different to get an edge and break the stalemate, and even then, it required 15 innings and four hours and 58 minutes to do that. When it was all over, the Mariners had outlasted the Tigers, 3-2, on a walk-off single by Jorge Polanco to advance to the American League Championship Series for the first time in 24 years.

“I don’t even know where to begin to try to recap all the heroic efforts that went into today,” manager Dan Wilson said. “And 15 innings? I’ve got to say, I don’t know how the fans kept their energy going. It was unbelievably loud, even in the 15th inning. And this is a special place. T-Mobile Park is a special place, and they showed us that tonight. And just an incredible ballgame from top to bottom.”

Both starting pitchers were taking the mound for a second time in the series, and both brought a slightly different approach to Game 5 than what they put on tape in their prior starts. In Game 1, Seattle starter George Kirby threw his slider 31% of the time; it was the first pitch he threw to eight of the 22 batters he faced. In Game 5, Kirby went to his slider 50% of the time and threw it as the first pitch to 10 of the 18 batters he faced. After the game, he confirmed this was a conscious shift in strategy to show Detroit’s lineup something different from what it’d seen from him six days prior. “All those guys from top to bottom are probably looking for a heater to start,” Kirby said, “and just starting off with a slider, curveball, whatever it may be, just — if I kept them off balance a little bit, I was able to attack the zone a little bit more with my fastball.” By mixing in more sliders early in the count, he was able to maintain the effectiveness of his four-seamer despite the recent exposure. Though the slider-heavy approach meant Kirby racked up fewer strikeouts than usual, he finished his outing allowing just three hits and one earned run over five innings with six punchouts. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce their playoff livestream plans and then break down Game 4 of the Phillies-Dodgers NLDS, including their musings on Orion Kerkering’s game-ending error and the events that preceded it, whether baseball would be better or worse without its tragic on-field figures, the Phillies’ future, and the intimidating Dodgers. Then, after a few thoughts on the Brewers and Cubs, they banter about baseball’s culture of pitch-tipping paranoia (53:29), the effects of high-tech pitching machines (1:09:20), the upcoming MLB free agency of NPB slugger Munetaka Murakami (1:17:00), and potentially encouraging comments about MLB’s path to a unified package of broadcast rights (1:20:58), plus a postscript message from Meg (1:30:05) about the Mariners’ ALDS Game 5 victory.

Audio intro: Nate Emerson, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to sign up for Patreon
Link to FG Phillies-Dodgers gamer
Link to walk-off video
Link to Gelb’s Phillies story
Link to walk-off errors stat 1
Link to walk-off errors stat 2
Link to Yoda quote
Link to tweet about Call on Call
Link to Stark on the Phillies’ future
Link to Petriello’s post
Link to new meme format
Link to bunting etymology
Link to FG Cubs-Brewers gamer
Link to article on pitch-tipping
Link to Ben on the banging scheme
Link to Wilson’s chess quote
Link to The Bandwagon on Trajekt
Link to 2024 Trajekt Stat Blast
Link to tweet about Yesavage
Link to Ben on pitching machines
Link to home wRC+ by year
Link to road wRC+ by year
Link to MLBTR on Murakami
Link to Ben on Murakami/Sasaki
Link to Normandin article
Link to Kennedy comments
Link to Kasten comments

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Even the best pitchers in baseball lose a game once in a while. Just ask Tarik Skubal. I’m sure you’ve read about it a hundred times by now, but the Mariners have won all three of their games this year where Skubal was the opposing starter. Seattle was the only team to hand him multiple losses during the regular season, and the Tigers dropped Game 2 of the ALDS — technically a no-decision for Skubal — less than a week ago. Now, thanks to his team’s roaring come-from-behind victory in Game 4, Skubal is lined up to start tonight’s decisive Game 5, giving him an opportunity to finally beat the Mariners this year.

I’ll give a warning upfront: This article is going to lean pretty heavily on batter-pitcher matchup stats; we’ll be examining some extremely small samples. But I think it’s an interesting investigation into the strategy that unfolds between familiar foes during a short postseason series.

What I really wanted to know is whether the Mariners had a specific approach that made them so successful against Skubal this year. As I mentioned, Skubal faced the Mariners twice during the regular season. On April 2, in Seattle, he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings; he gave up six hits and three walks while striking out eight. On July 11, he faced them again, this time in Detroit, and allowed four runs in five innings; he gave up just four hits and two walks while striking out five. His Game 2 start this past Sunday was his best yet: He surrendered two runs on five hits and one walk in seven innings while notching nine strikeouts. The two home runs off the bat of Jorge Polanco were his undoing. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »