12:01

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my Tuesday afternoon chat. Please bear with me a moment while I get my lunch order squared away…

12:03

Jay Jaffe: OK that’s done — fried chicken sandwich on the way…

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at the Alexis Díaz trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolste…), the latest in a long line of fix-it attempts by the Dodgers, who now have an astounding 15 pitchers on the injured list.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, last night’s Mets-Dodgers game was a thriller that kept me up way too late. A Lindor leadoff homer! An Ohtani answer homer with a great call by Gary Cohen, and a game-tying sac fly in the 9th! And yet another Tanner Scott meltdown that decided the game.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Astros’ recent surge and slew of injuries that should go up shortly. And now, on with the show

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Just over a year ago, the Brewers made the best kind of baseball history: weird baseball history. On May 31, 2024, they hosted the White Sox in Milwaukee, shellacking them 12-5. That part wasn’t weird. It’s hard to imagine anything less weird than the 2024 White Sox losing a baseball game (unless it’s the 2025 Rockies losing a baseball game). The weird part was how the Brewers beat the White Sox. They put up 23 hits, and 16 of those hits came on groundballs. That’s the most groundball base hits ever recorded since the pitch tracking era began in 2008. Would you like to see them all? Of course you would.

That’s what a record looks like. Groundball after groundball finding the various nooks and crannies that made the 2024 White Sox defense so similar to an English muffin. We’ve been waiting until this game’s anniversary to write about it. According to Baseball Savant, since 2008, only one other team has surpassed 12 groundball base hits in a single game. The White Sox tallied 15 against the Tigers on September 14, 2017. And that’s it. That’s the only team that came within three groundball hits of Milwaukee. First, let’s talk about how the Brewers pulled off this feat of worm-burning ingenuity.

As with any record, a fair bit of luck was involved. Balls took crazy hops off the mound and the first base bag. The Brewers hit a perfectly placed chopper and sent a ball hugging the third base line on a check swing. They wouldn’t have broken the record if any one of those balls had bounced another way. But as the saying goes, luck is the residue of design, and there was plenty of design involved here too. Read the rest of this entry »

The Diamondbacks did things the “right way,” to the extent that the right way means anything. After making the World Series unexpectedly in 2023, they went into the offseason with an exciting group of hitters and an unsettled rotation, so they opened the vault and signed two of the top-10 free agents that year — Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery — both starting pitchers. When those two flamed out in 2024 but the hitters kept producing, they went back to the well and signed Corbin Burnes, another marquee option. They refused to include top starting prospects in trades. They already had Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly in the fold. This is how you build a top rotation.

Er, well, this is a way that you can build a top rotation, but this particular iteration hasn’t panned out. In Phoenix, things are falling apart on the mound. Let’s look through Arizona’s problem rotation spots (read: everyone other than Kelly) and see if we can find a solution for each before it’s too late for the team’s 2025 season.

Corbin Burnes

The Problem: Injury
Burnes got off to a slow start in the desert, but like the weather in his new place of work, he was heating up as the year wore on. His cutter isn’t quite the devastating weapon it was during his 2021 Cy Young season, but it’s still a menace. He’s still one of the best in the business when it comes to spinning breaking balls. A well-located Burnes curveball is an absolute masterpiece, a pitch that will make you question the very basics of physics and reality.

In Burnes’ most recent four starts, he’s gone nuclear: 31% strikeout rate, 2.19 ERA, 2.67 FIP. He’d also been stacking up volume: Three of his past five starts lasted seven innings. But the most recent start ended prematurely in the fifth inning, when Burnes felt sharp tightness in his elbow, saw his velocity drop, and left the game. Burnes said after the game that he didn’t know the severity of the injury, telling reporters, “I’ve never had anything like it before, so I really have nothing to compare it to.”
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The calendar has flipped to June, and the teams that are fighting for their place in the playoff picture are starting to get serious about addressing the flaws on their rosters.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »

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This year, Josh Bell returned to Washington with a new goal in mind. “What this team needs is slug,” he told reporters during a Zoom call when he signed back in January. He explained that although he’d always prided himself on making contact and avoiding strikeouts – Bell’s career strikeout rate is 14% below the league average and his slugging percentage is 5% above it – he was finally ready to make use of his 6’3” frame and trade contact for power:

That’s kind of in my DNA, but understanding MVPs the last few years, they hit 40-plus homers and they might strike out 150-plus times, but that doesn’t get talked about. The slug is the most important thing. That’s where WAR is. That’s what wins games… I have a big frame, and I should probably hit more than 19 home runs a season. Hopefully, a year from now I can be looking back on a season where I had 40-plus and break my own records for slug in a season. That’s the goal.

Bell came into the season with a more upright stance, a slightly higher leg kick, and a new mission. “I feel like I’m not afraid to strikeout more if it means less groundballs,” he said in February. “I know when I’m at my best, I don’t hit the ball on the ground. I strike out a little bit more. So if I can take one and get rid of the other, then I’ll be in a good place and the average should stay the same or go up. Time will tell.”

I bring all this up because Bell has seen a huge change in his batted balls this season, but it’s very definitely not the change he hoped to see. So far this season, he’s running a .173 ISO, a bit down from his career mark, but more or less in line with what he’s done for the last several years. His hard-hit rate and exit velocity are nearly identical to last season’s marks. So in terms of both results and raw contact quality, he’s not more powerful, but he’s not less powerful either. The experiment may have failed, but it didn’t blow up the laboratory. Read the rest of this entry »

When I first started writing this piece, it began something like this: The results had yet to come for Oneil Cruz. But after a week of hitting lasers all over the park, Cruz’s wRC+ is up to 126, the highest mark of his career outside of his brief 2021 call-up. The 6-foot-7 outfielder’s titanic bat speed and explosiveness ignite stretches of truly incredible performance. His current hot streak and season-long numbers are a glimpse into what he can do with his talent, and they stand in contract with last season, when he had a 110 wRC+ and posted underwhelming numbers in the lower third of the strike zone for such a long limbed and powerful guy.

Back in January, I examined Cruz’s greatest strength: his ability to pound pitches at the top of the zone. Players with such long levers aren’t normally as productive at the top of the zone as Cruz was last season. His .496 xwOBA ranked third in all of baseball! If you left a pitch up there against him, you were vulnerable to some real pain. But being locked in in one part of the zone often means making sacrifices in another. It’s difficult to be versatile enough to command both the upper and lower thirds, and Cruz only ran a measly league average xwOBA in the bottom third (.319). That’s odd, though, because these are the types of pitches you’d expect somebody with his stature to drop their barrel under the ball with ease. When I wrote my January piece, one obvious conclusion was that if Cruz could preserve his upper-third excellence while doing more damage in a part of the zone that should mesh well with his physical abilities, then his batted ball profile would be fully unlocked. It’s still early, but Cruz’s .367 xwOBA in the lower third so far this season is a big improvement. Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers have had some impressive successes in recent years when it comes to acquiring pitchers who have struggled or failed to distinguish themselves elsewhere and then helping them flourish. Tyler Anderson made his first All-Star team as a Dodger in 2022, at his fifth stop in seven seasons. Evan Phillips owned a 7.26 career ERA before being plucked off waivers in 2021, and has since become a dominant part-time closer. Last summer Michael Kopech went from getting knocked around with the White Sox to closing games for the Dodgers within three weeks of being traded. Anthony Banda, Ryan Brasier, Andrew Heaney… the list goes on. Beset by pitching injuries yet again, on Thursday, Los Angeles acquired Alexis Díaz from the Reds with an eye toward helping him recover the form that made him an All-Star just two years ago.

The 28-year-old Díaz, the younger brother of Mets closer Edwin Díaz by two and a half years, has regressed considerably since his standout rookie campaign with the Reds in 2022. He spent the month of May pitching for Cincinnati’s Triple-A Louisville affiliate after a left hamstring injury suffered in spring training compromised his mechanics and displaced him from closer duty. The deal — which went down the day before the Dodgers announced that Phillips will undergo Tommy John surgery next week — sent 2024 draft pick Mike Villani to the Reds.

The Reds drafted Díaz in the 12th round in 2015 out of Juan Jose Maunez High School in Naguabo, Puerto Rico. His climb to the majors was slowed by 2016 Tommy John surgery and the coronavirus pandemic; he didn’t even reach Double-A until 2021. He broke camp with the Reds the following spring and allowed just one run and seven hits in his first 17 1/3 innings — capped by his first career save — while striking out 21. By late August, he was the primary closer, albeit on a team bound for 100 losses. He finished the year with a 1.84 ERA, a 32.5% strikeout rate, and 10 saves in 63 2/3 innings, a performance that helped him place fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello, all of you FanGraphs readers! Are you a FanGraphs Member? Are you looking for something fresh to read on Saturday mornings? Do you have any burning baseball questions for us, but don’t quite know where to ask them? Well, then we’ve got great news for you.

FanGraphs is launching a weekly mailbag, curated by me, that will run on the website every Saturday morning. Anyone can submit a question, but the piece answering them will only be available to FanGraphs Members.

So how is this going to work? Send any and all of your questions — about baseball, baseball writing, or whatever else you might be interested in having us answer — to me via email at mailbag@fangraphs.com, and each week, I’ll pick a few that we’ll answer in that Saturday’s mailbag. That’s right, I said we, because my FanGraphs colleagues will be helping me out. If you have a Hall of Fame question, I’ll probably relay it to Jay Jaffe. We’ve got Eric Longenhagen for prospect inquiries, and Dan Szymborski if we need to consult the ol’ ZiPS machine — the list goes on! We’ll do our best to answer as many questions as possible each week, but we won’t be able to get to them all. The ideal mailbag question is something that requires a deeper dive than we can tackle in our various chats, but is not so expansive that it warrants an entire article. Read the rest of this entry »