When Will the Cubs Roar Again?

Just as the Joey Gallo trade ended an era of Rangers baseball, the Cubs’ flurry of moves at this year’s trade deadline closed the door on Chicago’s championship core. While Kyle Hendricks, Willson Contreras, and Jason Heyward still remain from the 2016 team, the trades of Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo send things out with an exclamation point rather than the Texas comma. Five games below .500 and with a much weakened roster, we now project Chicago to finish 74-88; the last time the franchise finished with a worse record was 2014.

In a very real way, the 2010s Cubs did accomplish one very important feat: they won a championship. While I don’t subscribe to the notion that a great run for a team must involve a title, I also have not yet been placed in the role of some brutal autarch who determines how the history books are written. The Cubs won the World Series, and the Rangers did not, and both teams will be remembered differently as a result.

Still, the way it ended leaves a curious dissatisfaction about the Cubs. The dizzying heights of 2016 faded quickly, and the subsequent single NLCS appearance and pair of wild card losses were not the stuff of legend. The sudden turning-off of the cash spigot didn’t help, either; after spending $217 million in free agency after the 2017 season, Chicago has spent a total of $21 million in the offseasons since, or roughly half what the Rays have paid out in that span. (The mid-June 2019 signing of Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43 million contract is one of the lone splurges.) In the end, the farm system and those low-key signings couldn’t make up for the attrition elsewhere, and the Cubs’ domination of the NL Central was a brief affair.

Before last winter, team president Jed Hoyer talked about the Cubs going into a retooling phase rather than a full teardown, which left me skeptical. But Chicago still has some advantages that suggest a return to playoff relevance might not be that far away.

Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1729: That’s Just Like, Your Opinion, Man

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about baseball (and steeplechase?) at the Olympics, then answer listener emails about teams intentionally drafting players they don’t intend to sign, Willy Adames as an NL MVP candidate, Dominic Smith and reverse platoon splits, secret ball-strike counts, and which is better (or worse), position-player pitchers or pitcher hitters, then meet major leaguers Shea Spitzbarth and Stephen Ridings and do a Stat Blast about Flood v. Kuhn and Supreme Court Justice Harry Blackmun, the original Rememberer of Some Guys (plus a postscript about the life and death of legendary Astros ace J.R. Richard).

Audio intro: The Baseball Project, "Gratitude (For Curt Flood)"
Audio outro: Joni Mitchell, "The Last Time I Saw Richard"

Link to story about Olympic baseball
Link to Tess Taruskin on prospects at the Olympics
Link to steeplechase wiki
Link to Devan Fink on the NL MVP race
Link to research on reverse platoon splits
Link to Sam Miller on abolishing the strike zone
Link to Ben on pitcher hitters/position-player pitchers
Link to Tribune-Review on Spitzbarth
Link to Post-Gazette on Spitzbarth
Link to Newsday on Ridings in 2021
Link to Newsday on Ridings in 2016
Link to WFAN on Ridings
Link to story on Yankees’ three debuts
Link to Ridings press conference video
Link to story about Haverford’s baseball execs
Link to Flood v. Kuhn wiki
Link to Flood v. Kuhn opinion
Link to SABR research on Flood v. Kuhn
Link to Blackmun Stat Blast data
Link to Cabell’s comments about Richard
Link to MLB.com on Richard
Link to Allen Barra on Richard

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Late Inning Leads Are Becoming Less Secure

The playoff race is heating up and for teams still competing for the postseason, the stakes are the highest they’ve been all season. The spotlight shines especially bright on high-leverage relief appearances in this environment. Unfortunately for the Padres, their All-Star closer Mark Melancon took a small step backward in yesterday’s matchup against the Athletics. Melancon entered the ninth with a two-run lead but allowed two runs on three hits and a walk. The A’s went on to win 5-4 in extras. Despite the setback, Melancon has been one of the best closers in the league in 2021, converting 32 of his 37 save opportunities and leading all of baseball in saves. This season, however, has seen a ton of blown leads in late innings. In the past two seasons, save conversion rates have plummeted, diving from a stable range of 66-70% from 2002-18, down to as low as 61.7% so far this season.

At first glance, it’s easy to point to the expansion of the active roster to 26 players and an influx of injuries as the reason for baseball’s poor performance in closing out games. Save opportunities are being distributed much more widely than in the past. The chart above shows that the drop in save conversion rate actually begins in 2019. The days of multiple workhorse closers meeting the 40-save benchmark are gone. Even getting 40 save opportunities has been elusive for all but a handful of pitchers:

2021 Save Opportunities Leaderboard
Name Team G SV BS SVO ROS SVO
Mark Melancon SDP 45 32 4 36 54
Liam Hendriks CHW 47 26 5 31 47
Matt Barnes BOS 43 23 4 27 41
Edwin Diaz NYM 42 23 4 27 41
Kenley Jansen LAD 41 22 5 27 41
Raisel Iglesias LAA 44 22 5 27 41

Read the rest of this entry »


Logan Webb Is Sinking His Way to Success

For much of the San Francisco Giants’ wildly improbable 2021 season, the story of their pitching success (they have the third-best ERA and fourth-best FIP in baseball) has centered on a group of revitalized veterans, namely Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood, who have pitched better than ever, or at least better than they have in years. The shine on that group has begun to fade in recent weeks, however: the staff ace, Gausman, had a rough July and DeSclafani has struggled recently and now finds himself on the Injured List. Enter Logan Webb, a pitcher much their junior, who couldn’t have picked a better time to get his first taste of big league success.

A fourth round pick back in 2014, Webb moved methodically through a Giants farm system that was struggling to develop starting pitching. Even with the blockades of a 2016 Tommy John Surgery and a 2019 PED suspension, Webb still made his debut in 2019 at 22 years old, making him the youngest Giants starter to debut since Madison Bumgarner did so at age 20 in 2009.

Now 24, Webb is sustaining a high-level of performance in the midst of a pennant race that has the Giants gripping tightly to first place in a stout NL West. He currently boasts an ERA (3.33) more than two runs better than his career mark prior to the season (5.36). He also has the best ERA and FIP in the rotation since July 1 and has given up two runs or fewer in his last eight starts — half of which came against the vaunted Dodgers (three times) and Astros:

Logan Webb’s Breakout
Season ERA- FIP- xFIP-
2019 123 97 88
2020 126 98 101
2021 83 83 74

Read the rest of this entry »


Still Seeking Starters, the Dodgers Sign Cole Hamels for the Stretch Run

You can’t have too much pitching, and despite boasting arguably the majors’ deepest rotation in the spring, the Dodgers are depleted enough to continue hunting for reinforcements even after their big pickups at the trade deadline. Just hours before they took the wraps off marquee acquisition Max Scherzer, they added another well-decorated 37-year-old hurler to their reserve, signing free agent lefty Cole Hamels to an incentive-based one-year deal in hopes that he can help to offset their various injuries, absences, and workload concerns.

Mind you, there are no guarantees with 37-year-old arms, and that’s especially true for Hamels, a four-time All-Star and World Series MVP who is working to put his own recent string of injuries behind him. He’s pitched in just one game since the end of the 2019 season, and the second half of that campaign was a slog. On the strength of an improved changeup, Hamels posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.59 FIP in his first 99.2 innings for the Cubs in 2019, but left his June 28 start with an oblique strain. After missing five weeks, he struggled to regain his velocity and deception, getting hit for a 5.79 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 10 starts upon returning, and he made just one start after September 16 due to shoulder fatigue. Still, he finished with a 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP and 2.4 WAR, the last two marks his best since 2016.

After reportedly drawing interest from 13 teams, Hamels signed a one-year, $18 million deal with the Braves in December 2019, but by the time he reported to camp in mid-February, he was already ailing, having irritated his shoulder while doing weighted ball exercises as part of his winter workouts. He was behind schedule before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down spring training. About a week before camps reopened, the Braves reported that Hamels was throwing pain free and expected to be ready to start the shortened season, but by mid-July, he was sidelined by triceps tendinitis, deemed unlikely for Opening Day, and placed on the 45-day Injured List the day before the season began. When he finally made his first appearance, on September 16, he lasted just 3.1 innings and 52 pitches, allowing three runs. Before he could take his next turn, he was placed on the 10-day IL with shoulder fatigue, and that was all she wrote.

A free agent again, Hamels reportedly drew the interest of several teams as of December, but nothing materialized before the season began. As of mid-June, he continued to build up strength throwing off a mound, but it wasn’t until July 16 that he finally threw a showcase. Representatives from 20 teams attended, but with attention focused on the July 30 trade deadline, Hamels didn’t sign anywhere until Wednesday.

His deal with the Dodgers isn’t a bank-breaker, guaranteeing Hamels a $1 million base salary (the prorated share of $3.05 million) plus $200,000 for every start or relief appearance of 3.1 innings or longer (terms updated via this AP report); additionally, he has agreed to accept an optional assignment to the minors, and the Dodgers have agreed to recall him no later than September 2. With the team already nearly $65 million past the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and nearly $25 million past the third tier threshold, they’ll pay a surtax on his salary. They won’t get a ton of innings from him, as Hamels is first headed to the team’s spring training facility in Arizona. He’s scheduled to throw a two-inning simulated game on Saturday, and to be built up to a starter’s pitch count. The Dodgers don’t need a fifth starter until August 14 agains the Mets, but Hamels would probably have to dazzle in order to make even an abbreviated start in that game.

It’s too early to know how exactly he’ll fit into the Dodgers’ revamped rotation, which currently includes Scherzer (who dazzled in his debut, a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Astros, bookended by whiffs of Jose Altuve and Chas McCormick, the latter drawing a curtain call), Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, David Price, and a big ol’ TBD. The team lost Dustin May to Tommy John surgery in May, and in the past week placed Tony Gonsolin to the 10-day IL due to shoulder inflammation and traded top pitching prospect Josiah Gray, who had made two appearances, to the Nationals in the Scherzer deal.

The Dodgers don’t know yet when Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched in a game since July 3 due to forearm inflammation, will return from the IL, and they have worked to distance themselves from Trevor Bauer, who hasn’t pitched for them since June 28 in the wake of sexual assault allegations. Kershaw
had worked his way back to the point of throwing a three-inning simulated game on July 27. The Dodgers hoped he could be ready as soon as this weekend, but he’s now experiencing what manager Dave Roberts termed “residual soreness,” putting his next sim start on hold. Bauer remains on administrative leave through August 6 in connection with two separate investigations, a criminal one by the Pasadena Police Department, and an MLB one in connection with its joint domestic violence policy. His leave is expected to be extended given that his next hearing concerning a temporary restraining order was postponed from July 23 to August 16. Last week, the Los Angeles Times‘ Mike DiGiovanna reported that “a majority of players do not want Bauer back under any circumstances.”

The Dodgers do have one other potential starter waiting in the wings in lefty Danny Duffy, who was acquired from the Royals on July 29. He hasn’t pitched since July 16 due to a flexor strain, however, and isn’t expected back before September. Whether as a starter or multi-inning reliever, he’s not expected to carry a huge workload, but with Urías having already set a career high for innings (129.2), and Price coming off a season in which he opted out due to the pandemic, anybody who can offer a slice of quality innings is welcome.

Hence the signing of Hamels, who in addition to getting a chance to pitch close to home (he’s a San Diego native) is hoping to prolong an impressive career during which he’s won 163 games, struck out 2,560 hitters, and helped teams to eight playoff appearances highlighted by his winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors for the 2008 Phillies. With his time away, the major round-numbered milestones and an outside shot at the Hall of Fame (he’s 13.4 points short of the JAWS standard for starting pitchers) may be out of reach unless he musters some late-career staying power:

Most Strikeouts by Southpaws 37 & Older Since 2000
Player Years Age IP W bWAR SO
Randy Johnson 2001-2009 37-45 1636.2 124 43.2 1835
Jamie Moyer 2000-2012 37-49 2145.2 151 22.3 1277
David Wells 2000-2007 37-44 1362.0 98 20.4 791
Kenny Rogers 2002-2008 37-43 1253.1 87 18.6 653
Tom Glavine 2003-2008 37-42 1068.2 63 15.1 553
Rich Hill 2017-2021 37-41 471.0 35 6.1 515
Chuck Finley 2000-2002 37-39 522.1 35 6.3 459
Andy Pettitte 2009-2013 37-41 584.1 41 10.4 446
Al Leiter 2003-2005 37-39 496.2 32 7.6 353
Darren Oliver 2008-2013 37-42 363.1 24 9.0 314
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Even without such accomplishments, another championship would probably suffice for Hamels. With the playoff-bound Dodgers, he’ll get a shot at that — if he can stay healthy.


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/21

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The appointed time has arrived.

12:01
Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Is this a regular Gallo ebb and flow thing or is he pressing with the new team?

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s just a bad run

12:01
Moose_Bolton: If you became a chess grandmaster, what do you think the Szymborski Gambit would consist of?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dunno, grandmaster Szym would be better than actual Szym

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I think all the good gambits have probably been discovered?

Read the rest of this entry »


The Mariners Are Trying To Be the Clutchiest Team on Record… Again

On July 26, the Seattle Mariners experienced what was perhaps the apex of their season. Down 6-0 against the Astros until the third inning, they embarked on an improbable rally that would culminate in an 11-8 victory. Let’s take some time to admire Dylan Moore and his swing, which produced the grand slam that punctuated the uphill battle:

Chills! It was a great moment, and not just for Mariners fans but for baseball in general. Who doesn’t love a cathartic underdog upset? (Well, maybe not the Astros in this moment.) But it was also a reminder of how the team had gotten to that point. Despite an ugly run differential, the Mariners had managed to squeeze out key wins throughout the season. This latest against the Astros gave them a 55-46 record. Suddenly, a Wild Card berth didn’t seem out of reach.

Two weeks later, the Mariners are still going. I had planned to write this article as early as July 24, when I tweeted about the team’s offense. In the back of my mind, I sort of assumed they’d fizzle out. But here we are, and the Mariners have a respectable 58-51 record – three games behind Oakland, and just a few more behind Boston. No team has been more clutch. Read the rest of this entry »


Chin Music, Episode 25: Let’s Not Test the Star Player

The podcast returns a day earlier than normal, as I am joined by special guest co-host Jorge Arangure of The New York Times. We begin by wrapping up a busy trade deadline, then discuss how Kumar Rocker is a victim of an anti-player rule set, before getting into all of the latest COVID news (while bemoaning the fact that there is always COVID news). Then we are joined by special guest Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, who takes us through the Nationals tearing things down last week. She also happens to be in Los Angeles for the Dodgers/Astros series, so vibes are discussed. From there it’s your emails and a check-in on Jorge’s mental state as somebody who can’t walk away from the pandemic. Plus, seeing how The Wire holds up after nearly two decades.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by No Lights.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


Bo Bichette Talks Hitting

Bo Bichette is one of the best young hitters in the game. Just 23 years old, the Toronto Blue Jays shortstop has a .299/.345/.509 slash line to go with a 128 wRC+ and 35 home runs — 19 of them coming this season — in 795 big-league plate appearances through Tuesday’s action. Drafted 66th overall in 2016 out of a St. Petersburg high school, the 2021 American League All-Star is the son of former major-league slugger Dante Bichette.

Bichette talked hitting prior to a recent game at Fenway Park.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite Talks Hitting ice-breaker questions: Do you view hitting as more of an art, or more of a science?

Bo Bichette: “That’s an interesting question. I’d say it’s a combination of both, but I would lean more toward it being an art. I think hitting is more mental than anything, and science kind of equates to mechanics and all that. So I would say art.”

Laurila: Hitting analytics have obviously become a bigger part of the game…

Bichette: “Yes, but for me, no. I think the analytics are more how we’re evaluated as players. Everybody has their own things that click in their head. I haven’t really looked at the analytics all that much. The one thing is that pitchers pitch up in the zone more often, so you definitely practice hitting that pitch a little bit. But I don’t pay attention to my launch angle, exit velocity, and stuff like that.”

Laurila: Is your stroke conducive to hitting the elevated fastball? Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 8/4/21

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Emiliano Teodo, RHP, Texas Rangers
Level & Affiliate: Arizona Complex League Age: 20 Org Rank: 25 FV: 40+
Line: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 2 K

Notes
Like Daniel Palencia (now of the Cubs, formerly of the A’s), Teodo signed just before the 2020 season that never happened and only popped onto the radar screen in 2021, when we actually had consistent minor league activity on the backfields. He’s been parked in the 98-101 mph range and spins in an upper-70s curveball that’s at times in excess of 3,000 rpm. Skinny and featuring a fairly violent delivery, Teodo’s projection skews toward relief, but there’s ample time to develop him because of when he signed. He’s another high-variance/upside arm in the Rangers system. Read the rest of this entry »