A couple of weeks ago, I examined the 2021 home run environment and concluded that despite the slightly deadened ball, this season’s home run rates are still among the highest we have on record. As part of that piece, I looked at the number of players who were on pace to hit 40-plus home runs, of which there were seven. One name that wasn’t on that list, though, was Kyle Schwarber, who has hit 16 home runs since June 12 and is now at 25 on the year. I want to take a closer look at his historic power surge and the adjustments he made to get to this spot.

Schwarber’s potential as a hitter has long been evident. You saw his plus hit tool in action when he improbably returned to the Cubs’ lineup during the 2016 World Series after having missed all of the regular season with a torn ACL — he reportedly prepared for his return by watching thousands of breaking pitches in the batting cages — and slashed .412/.500/.471. But while he was solidly above-average over the next three seasons, each year putting up a wOBA of .340 or better (and topping out at .372 in 2019), he crashed in 2020, putting up an anemic .188/.308/.393 triple slash and career-worst 91 wRC+ across 59 games. That got him non-tendered last winter, with the Nationals picking him up on a one-year, $10 million deal with a $10 million mutual option for 2022. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — After living up to the hype and the history for the better part of the season’s first three months — capped by an extension of his recent home run spree with three in his first two games in the Bronx — Shohei Ohtani made a rare misstep on Wednesday. On a night where he doubled as both the Angels’ leadoff hitter and their starting pitcher, Ohtani allowed the first five Yankees he faced to reach base, failed to escape the first inning, and was charged with a career-high seven runs. Rather than send him out to right field after his start as planned, manager Joe Maddon had little choice but to pull his two-way superstar from the game entirely.

Not that many in the Yankee Stadium crowd of 30,714 complained. Quite the contrary. For as happy as they might have been to get a glimpse of the eighth wonder of the world, the sight of the Yankees’ recently-dormant offense continuing the previous night’s 11-run onslaught — one more run than they’d scored during their four-game losing streak — was even more welcome… at least until the plot twisted.

“Frustrating. Disappointing. Terrible,” said Yankees manager Aaron Boone afterwards. Boone wasn’t referring to Ohtani’s outing, but rather the similar lapse of control from closer Aroldis Chapman. On a sweltering night that saw a temperature of 92 degrees at first pitch before a pair of rain delays cooled things off while adding a couple of extra hours at the ballpark, the Yankees frittered away their 7-2 first-inning lead, with Chapman ultimately walking the bases loaded in the ninth inning and serving up a game-tying grand slam to Jared Walsh. The Angels added three more runs against Lucas Luetge and escaped with a surreal 11-8 victory that Maddon called, “probably the craziest, best result we’ve had” during his two-season tenure. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I assessed the state of each org in the American League ahead of this month’s trade deadline, detailing what effect June might have had on their approach and what they might look to achieve come the end of July. Today, we’ll consider the senior circuit.

NL East

New York Mets
June Effect: Up slightly. For all the understandable concern over the Mets offense, the team has seen their chances of reaching the playoffs creep up a bit into the 75% range.

Current Tenor: Buying.

What They Are After: On paper, the Mets need to do something about their moribund offense, but they are much like the Yankees in that what they actually need is for their exiting lineup to get/stay healthy and start producing like one would expect. A center field upgrade would be ideal, but there aren’t many candidates out there. Some rotation depth to help get to the playoffs would also be nice.

Behavior: With a first-year owner and a first-year GM, clubs are still figuring this one out. The team has money and Steve Cohen wants to win, so they are expected to be aggressive. Read the rest of this entry »

With 11 strikeouts in six innings in his start against the Dodgers last week, Yu Darvish reached 1,500 major-league strikeouts in fewer innings than anyone else in history. Playing in NPB from 2005 to 2012, he racked up 1,250 strikeouts.

No. 1678

Last year he was close to becoming Rookie of the Year, even though one might well consider him a veteran: a pro since he was 18 back in 2005, a decade of experience carried with him. But on this continent, he is not the ubiquitous superstar he is at home. The things he is capable of — the command, when he’s on, of almost every pitch imaginable; the apparent ease with which he can induce whiffs and strikeouts — are still brand new.

He began this season with a 14-strikeout game — an out away from completing the game on his own. Now, deep in the summer heat of August, he has racked up four such games. And here he is, at work on another one. In the eighth, with one out (strikeout 14), he has yet to allow a hit.

But it only takes one swing, and the tenuous lead he has been protecting all this time is cut in half: one hit on the board now, one run. So he comes back with another strikeout. The first one this inning was a strikeout looking, but this one is a strikeout swinging — his 109th pitch, impossibly placed, moving as though manipulated by invisible hands. “15,” the scorebug flashes — strikeout number 15. And if it’s thrilling, or if it’s tiring, or if he is reaching the end of his rope, there is no sign of it: just an exhale, a circling of the mound, a return — one more batter, just one more. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

These are notes on prospects from Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

There were lots of notable performances in the minors last night, so I covered more players than usual and shortened up some of the notes. Additionally, the 2021 Futures Game rosters were announced today and they are freaking loaded. You can see the entire rosters and access players’ scouting reports on The Board’s seasonal tab. Thanks to Sean Dolinar for his speedy help in getting that up.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Las Vegas Age: 26 Org Rank: 2 FV: 50
Line: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 4 K

Notes
Puk has now had two consecutive scoreless outings after he surrendered multiple runs in each of his previous six (!). When I saw him during the spring, his velo was only in the low-90s, well below the 96-99 range a fully healthy Puk would typically be operating in. Per Synergy, that velocity has returned to peak levels during the regular season. Today I noticed a change in Puk’s arm slot. This change occurred earlier this month. I don’t know if that velo rebound occurred in concert with this change, or if this is something Puk was instructed to do, or if it just began happening naturally. Regardless, this is still a lefty with big velo and a deep coffer of impact secondaries. If he can get right at some point this season, he can be an impact relief weapon for a team fighting for its division, and I still like Puk as a multi-inning reliever long-term. Read the rest of this entry »

At the beginning of June, I wrote about how reach-out call season had begun. As the calendar flips this week, those reach-out calls quickly turn into conversations concerning serious injuries and the initialization of actual trade talks. A lot can change in a month, and has, so let’s check in with each org and try to project the month ahead, beginning with the American League.

AL East

Boston Red Sox
June Effect: Up significantly. The Red Sox entered the month with roughly a 25% chance of reaching the postseason, but are now the overwhelming favorite to win the division (53.5%) with an 83.5% chance to make the playoffs, per our Playoff Odds.

Current Tenor: Buying mode.

What They Are After: Starters who can pitch in playoffs games and a more dependable bat at first base. Hunter Renfroe’s step forward creates less stress about the outfield situation.

Behavior: It’s hard to measure other than by using Chaim Bloom’s history in Tampa. He’ll likely aim high in terms of asks/offers, but a heavy lean on analytics can create evaluation mis-matches that allow a deal to get done. Read the rest of this entry »

Tony Kemp did not make the cut when the All-Star Game finalists were announced on Sunday; the American League second basemen will be represented by the trio of Marcus Semien, Jose Altuve, and DJ LeMahieu. Semien and Altuve are both having fine seasons, and not for the first time, and while LeMahieu has been comparatively subpar thus far this year, he was one of the AL’s top hitters in 2019 and ’20. Kemp does not have that kind of track record, and isn’t even a full-time player or a single-position one, but he’s nonetheless in the midst of a career year that deserves a closer look.

Through Monday (the cutoff for all the stats herein), the 29-year-old Kemp was hitting .274/.401/.438 in 186 PA, splitting his time between second base (40 games, 24 starts) and left field (24 games, 19 starts). After starting just six of Oakland’s first 22 games, he’s started 37 of the past 54 and 25 of the past 33, earning an increasingly larger share of the playing time thanks to his improved hitting. After slashing just .200/.385/.233 (98 wRC+) in 40 PA in April, he improved to .292/.368/.438 (125 wRC+) in 59 PA in May, and .294/.430/.529 (169 wRC+) in 87 PA in June.

Kemp’s overall slash stats and wRC+ all represent career highs and are well beyond the .235/.320/.359 (89 wRC+) he hit for the Astros, Cubs, and A’s in 863 PA from 2016 to ’20. He doesn’t have enough playing time to qualify for the batting title, but through Monday, his .401 on-base percentage ranked third among AL hitters with at least 150 PA, behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.443) and Yoán Moncada (.403), and his 140 wRC+ ranks 15th, two points behind Altuve, six points ahead of Semien, and 37 points ahead of LeMahieu.

Again, I’m not suggesting that Kemp deserved All-Star consideration for what amounts to his first season with at least 1.0 WAR (he’s at 1.4), but it’s an impressive performance nonetheless, one that has helped the A’s to the AL’s fifth-best record at 47–34. I’ll admit that he hadn’t caught my eye to any great degree until a reader (presumably not Tony Kemp, despite the screen name) called attention to him in last week’s chat, but after 30 seconds of peering at his stats page, I resolved to investigate more closely.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Altuve had the worst season of his career in 2020, hitting .219/.268/.344 in 48 games for the Astros for a 77 wRC+ and a near-replacement 0.2 WAR. It didn’t keep Houston from making the playoffs — albeit in a 16-team format with the Astros finishing below .500 — but his annus horribilis was one of the reasons the team dropped to 14th in the majors in runs scored, their worst showing since 2016. As a franchise cornerstone, the organization’s longest-tenured player, and the target of still-mysterious buzzer allegations, he naturally absorbed quite a lot of the heat generated by the sign-stealing scandal. To many, it was a case of just deserts, a cheater watching his legacy fade before his eyes. But reality cares not for made-for-TV storylines. In 2021, Altuve — and by extension the Astros — is having a great year.

A star falling off a cliff in their early 30s isn’t typical, but it does happen, and without any complications from getting caught stealing signs. One of the many cases that jumps out to me is that of Steve Sax, who went from having a nearly 50% chance of 3,000 hits in Bill James’ Favorite Toy to losing his job in the space of about a year; Sax faced more comical allegations of chicanery than Altuve. And one of this generation’s shining beacons of weapons-grade awesomeness, Albert Pujols, had a turning point in his early 30s when he transformed from Jimmie Foxx into Darin Ruf. Altuve did have a couple of relatively minor leg injuries in 2020, but neither could explain a season dreadful enough to have no silver lining.

Like Sax 30 years ago, a projection system (ZiPS in this case) had Altuve on an approach pattern to 3,000 hits. The combined effect of a shortened season and a performance that raised serious concerns about his future more than halved that milestone probability, from 40% to 19%. ZiPS, like the other projection systems, projected Altuve to have a significant bounce-back season in 2021, forecasting a .289/.355/.478, 3.6 WAR campaign. Most players would be quite happy with that result, but that line would only be a return to Altuve’s 2019 level, a drop from his 2014-2018 peak. Read the rest of this entry »