Szymborski’s 2021 Breakout Candidates: Hitters
One of my favorite yearly preseason pieces is also my most dreaded: the breakout list. I’ve been doing this exercise since 2014, and while I’ve had the occasional triumph (hello, Christian Yelich), the low-probability nature of trying to project who will beat expectations means that every time you look smart, you’re also bound to look dumb for some other reason. Looking back at last season’s breakout list, there were a number of selections I was happy with once the season ended — Eloy Jiménez, Dinelson Lamet, Dansby Swanson, Dylan Bundy — but then I remember Mitch Keller’s walkalicious 2020 and Victor Robles dropping 27 points of wRC+ and my cringe-sense starts to tingle. Since I’m doing separate lists of hitters and pitchers this year, let’s waste no more time with the opening spiel. To the hitters!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Perhaps not the gutsiest call, but it feels to me like people have soured way too much on Vladito. A 112 wRC+ won’t win any Silver Sluggers, but we have to remember he was just 21 last season. Let’s imagine that Guerrero Jr. wasn’t part of the imperial-Vlad bloodline and was just a guy in Triple-A in 2020 (in an alternate universe where the minor league season existed). If we translate Guerrero’s actual major league performance into a Triple-A Buffalo line, ZiPS estimates that he would’ve been hitting .288/.370/.526 as a 21-year-old in the International League. Would anyone be disappointed with this line? There would be cries of Free Vlad! echoing through the streets by June. I think players like Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. have spoiled us for normal awesome prospects.
While I don’t usually fall for the whole “best shape of his life” stories in spring, I think I’ve fallen for it this time. Guerrero was carrying a lot of weight for a 21-year-old; I weighed less at 21, and my main aerobic exercise was hauling cases of beer into my house. He dropped a lot of weight this winter, so I take this one more seriously than the usual stories, which involve a guy losing 10 pounds or having some secret abs that people gush about.
Percentile | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
90% | .289 | .368 | .572 | 537 | 84 | 155 | 38 | 6 | 34 | 111 | 64 | 78 | 4 | 150 | 4.7 |
80% | .284 | .357 | .540 | 543 | 82 | 154 | 36 | 5 | 31 | 107 | 58 | 85 | 3 | 139 | 4.0 |
70% | .279 | .350 | .521 | 545 | 80 | 152 | 35 | 5 | 29 | 103 | 56 | 88 | 2 | 133 | 3.5 |
60% | .278 | .347 | .506 | 547 | 78 | 152 | 34 | 5 | 27 | 99 | 54 | 93 | 2 | 128 | 3.2 |
50% | .275 | .342 | .486 | 549 | 77 | 151 | 33 | 4 | 25 | 96 | 52 | 96 | 2 | 122 | 2.7 |
40% | .274 | .339 | .472 | 551 | 77 | 151 | 32 | 4 | 23 | 93 | 50 | 99 | 1 | 117 | 2.3 |
30% | .272 | .336 | .457 | 552 | 75 | 150 | 31 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 49 | 103 | 1 | 113 | 2.0 |
20% | .267 | .327 | .440 | 555 | 73 | 148 | 30 | 3 | 20 | 87 | 46 | 109 | 1 | 106 | 1.5 |
10% | .266 | .324 | .425 | 557 | 72 | 148 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 84 | 44 | 119 | 1 | 102 | 1.2 |