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This year’s Hall of Fame election shutout halted a remarkable run: seven consecutive years of multiple candidates being elected, and 22 candidates over that span, both of which were modern voting era records. Even with this year’s shutout, and the possibility of another one next year — reactions to the specific candidates closest to election, it would appear, rather than to the process as a whole — it’s undeniable that the dynamics of Hall elections have changed.

Consider this: From 1966 to 2005, only three candidates recovered from debuts below 25% to reach 75%, even with 15 years of eligibility: Duke Snider (17.0% in 1970, elected in ’81), Don Drysdale (21.0% in 1975, elected in ’84) and Billy Williams (23.4% in 1982, elected in ’87). Since then, we’ve seen five players elected despite such slow starts, including three from 2017-20. From the 15-year eligibility period came Bruce Sutter (23.9% in 1994, elected in 2006), and Bert Blyleven (17.5% in ’98, elected in 2011), and then once the Hall unilaterally decided to cut eligibility from 15 years to 10 — less to clean up the ballots than to try moving the intractable debate over PED-related candidates out of the spotlight — Tim Raines (24.3% in 2008, elected in ’17), Mike Mussina (20.3% in 2014, elected in ’19), and Larry Walker (20.3% in 2011, elected in ’20).

This year, Gary Sheffield (11.7% in 2015), Billy Wagner (10.5% in ’16), and Todd Helton (16.2% in ’19) all crossed the 40% threshold, the point where the odds of eventual election really start to tilt in a candidate’s favor, and Scott Rolen (10.2% in ’18) topped 50%, the point at which eventual election becomes a near-certainty. If you’ve been reading my coverage for any length of time, you know my line about Gil Hodges being the only exception from the latter group besides the current candidates on the ballot, but consider what the data tells us about landing in the 40-49% range even once. Out of the 40 candidates who have done so since 1966 (the year voters returned to the annual balloting) and are no longer on the ballot, 20 were elected by the writers and another 14 by small committees.

In other words, it’s not unreasonable to think about the aforementioned players finding spots in Cooperstown sometime in the next five years, which is a lot more fun to consider than another year of quarreling over the quartet of polarizing players — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Omar Vizquel — whose character issues became the focus of the past election cycle.

In any event, it’s time to break out my crystal ball for my eighth-annual five-year election outlook, an exercise that requires some amount of imagination and speculation. While it’s grounded in my research into the candidates and the history and mechanics of the voting, the changes to the process that have occurred over those eight years raise the question of how valuable that history is from a prognostication standpoint. Revising this annually is a necessity because every incorrect assumption has a ripple effect; the presence of a high-share holdover means less space for and less attention paid to the midballot guys. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s your chance to vote for the 2021 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards winners.

The SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year. Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America.

To read any of the finalists, click on the link below. Scroll down to cast your vote.

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Hi there. How are you? 2020, huh?

2,711 days ago (or at least that’s what Google tells me), I penned my goodbye to the internet. That’s a lot of days. A lot has happened since then, and while I imagine many of you know who I am, eight years is a long time in the world of baseball media. I’m sure for some of you, my name barely registers. And so a quick introduction (or a re-introduction) is in order as I embark on a new chapter here at FanGraphs.

Back in 2012, I’d already been writing about baseball, prospects, scouting, and player development for a long time. I was one of the main contributors at Baseball Prospectus, did a few things for ESPN, had a Sunday show on MLB Network Radio with Mike Ferrin, and did a weekly podcast with my dear friend Jason Parks. It was all a lot of fun, but during that final year in media, teams started calling me. It was weird, but I can’t say I wasn’t interested. I talked to a few. Some led to deeper discussions, some didn’t, and that summer I accepted a position as Coordinator, Pro Scouting with the Houston Astros (commas in titles always bug me, but it was a thing in Houston, as you’ll see…).

I lasted eight years with the club, which probably puts me in the 90th percentile in terms of executive time spent with one team. When I arrived, the Astros were rebuilding and were awful, but the team got better, and ultimately became a powerhouse that went to a pair of World Series, and even won one.

And my career grew as well. After a year, I was promoted to Director, Pro Scouting and finally rose to the role of Special Assistant to the General Manager, Player Personnel. During my time with the Astros, I was exposed to a wide array of baseball operations responsibilities. I did in-person scouting within the pro, amateur and international disciplines, and helped to establish our ability to analyze players using data and video. I was in the war room for both the draft and the trade deadline, in the suite during the winter meetings, attended a handful of GM Meetings and even got to conduct a few trade and free agent negotiations over the past few years. Read the rest of this entry »

Casey Mize plans to be a different pitcher in 2021. Not just in terms of results — the rookie right-hander had a 6.99 ERA and a 6.47 FIP in seven starts with the Detroit Tigers last year — but also with how he employs his arsenal. Not surprisingly, data will be playing a role. Mize has a history with pitch design that dates back to his days at Auburn, and those efforts have only increased in pro ball.

I asked the first-overall pick in the 2018 draft what technology has taught him about his pitches, and how it’s shaping his efforts to improve.

“It’s pretty much a horizontal profile,” Mize responded. “We’re starting to take the four-seamer up a little bit to add a little more vertical, because it played so well last year. My splitter is super vertical, and we’re trying to really maximize that, because my slider has more of a horizontal break.”

Mize acknowledged that his two-seamer profiles as horizontal as well, getting more arm-side run than depth. It’s a pitch he’s favored, but that’s one of the changes currently in the works. The 23-year-old hurler not only plans to elevate more four-seamers, he intends to up its overall usage. His two-seamer will be used primarily “to mask the splitter,” a pitch he likes to have diving below the zone. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the quirks and cancellation of a long-lost (and recently rediscovered) baseball successor to arcade hit NBA Jam called Power-Up Baseball, then discuss the Cubs signing Joc Pederson and the Cardinals bringing back Adam Wainwright and (probably) Yadier Molina, share a Stat Blast about where Wainwright and Molina rank among the most prolific pitcher-catcher combos of all time in terms of total starts, break down Nick Madrigal’s chances of achieving the “very reachable” (according to Madrigal) milestone of 3,000 hits, and celebrate Ken Griffey Jr.’s hiring as a senior advisor to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, then answer listener emails about whether contract incentives could encourage players to adopt data-driven approaches, how Mike Trout could tank his career WAR while continuing to play, and how to make baseball as bad as possible while preserving the core structure of the sport.

Audio intro: Echo & the Bunnymen, "Lost and Found"
Audio outro: Lindisfarne, "Together Forever"

Link to article about Power-Up Baseball
Link to video of Power-Up Baseball
Link to Google Doodle baseball game
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Wainwright signing
Link to Stat Blast data about batteries
Link to player turnover study
Link to Madrigal’s comments
Link to age-based baselines for 3000-hit club
Link to MLB.com story about Griffey
Link to list of Trout hypotheticals
Link to Meg on Trout hypotheticals
Link to Francoeur with big glove
Link to Francoeur with big glove again
Link to Craig Edwards’ farewell post
Link to FanGraphs job posting

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For years, rumors have connected Nolan Arenado and the St. Louis Cardinals. Some of it was wishcasting — Cardinals fans have spent the last 25 years expecting (and often seeing) trades for unhappy superstars, and Arenado sure seemed unhappy. Some of it was actual interest — the Cardinals have been in the superstar trade market and the Rockies have been in the move-Arenado market at various points. Today, it’s happening: per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Arenado has been traded to the Cardinals for five players: Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey, Elehuris Montero, and Jake Sommers.

The sticking point in any Arenado trade was always going to be capitalism. That’s painting with a broad brush, so let’s rephrase: there’s no doubt that Arenado is one of the best players in the game, but the vagaries of his contract and the math of surplus value combined to limit a potential return. Remember when Giancarlo Stanton got traded to the Yankees for essentially nothing? This would be like that, only potentially even worse.

Arenado is due $199 million over the next six years. That’s a large contract, as befits a player of his stature. If you value one win above replacement at around $8 million (my best estimate at present, though the error bars are huge given the pandemic), Arenado would need to produce roughly 25 WAR over the next six years to break even. We’ve got ZiPS forecasts for the next five of those years:

The numbers fall a little short, which is why finding a trading partner for Arenado has proved so elusive even as rumors of his availability persisted. That doesn’t even take into account a player option that would allow him to become a free agent after the 2021 season; it’s hard to trade a lot for a player who might not be on your team in a year’s time.

Those are the reasons that Arenado was a strange piece to fit in a trade. The counter? Arenado is an awesome player! He’s Nolan Arenado, for crying out loud. Over the last five years, he’s been the seventh-best position player in the game. At 29, he’s not a spring chicken anymore, but he’s still one of the best third basemen out there. Every single team in baseball would be improved by adding him, even if they had to shift a few pieces around to fit him in.

This weird dichotomy — excellent player, middling trade chip — explains the strangeness of this deal. Though the terms of the deal aren’t final, the Rockies are reportedly sending roughly $50 million to the Cardinals as part of the trade, and Arenado has agreed to defer some of his compensation to further sweeten the financial pot for St. Louis. The Cardinals gave Arenado an extra opt-out and an extra year reported at $15 million in exchange. There are all kinds of wild financial things going on in this deal, but let’s skip all that for now and focus on what St. Louis is getting on the field.

The highlight of this trade is pretty clear: the Cardinals just got a new best player on their team. The NL Central is up for grabs this year, and the four teams with a realistic shot at it have spent the offseason doing a whole lot of nothing. Adam Wainwright, who signed earlier this week, was the first player the Cardinals inked to a major league contract all offseason. Read the rest of this entry »

2:00	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to my first chat in this new time slot as well as my first one of 2021!

2:01	Jay Jaffe: While I wait for the queue to gain steam, some housekeeping… First, a fond farewell to colleague Craig Edwards, who’s making a leap to becoming an analyst for the Major League Baseball Players Association https://blogs.fangraphs.com/goodbye-and-thank-you/

2:04

Jay Jaffe: Second, I awoke to the pleasant surprise of having my Missed Time and the Hall of Fame series nominated for a SABR Analytics Research Conference Award. Colleagues Craig, Ben Clemens and Meg Rowley were also nominated in other categories, as were many friends and familiar names. Congrats to all of these fine nominees! Do read these pieces when you get a chance, and vote on them starting next week. https://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-for-2021-sabr-analytics-c…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Here’s a link to mine: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-1, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-2, https://blogs.fangraphs.com/missed-time-and-the-hall-of-fame-part-3

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Here’s my candidate-by-candidate roundup of this week’s Hall of Fame voting. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2… My 5-year outlook piece will run on Monday, and wow has it change even with nobody elected this year.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: Get your FanGraphs mug while you still can:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-new-fangraphs-mug-is-now-available…

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A familiar face is staying in St. Louis, as veteran starter Adam Wainwright, a Cardinal for 18 years now, came to an agreement Thursday on returning to the team for the 2021 season. The deal is believed to be worth $8 million — a bump in guaranteed money from his $5 million going into 2020 and $2 million in ’19.

This one-year deal isn’t, however, one of those last-gasp contracts agreed to with a franchise stalwart brought back in a wave of nostalgia. With Jack Flaherty slumping in 2020, Wainwright was the team’s most valuable pitcher and one of the primary reasons the Cardinals were able to sneak into the playoffs toward the back of the inflated 16-team field. In 10 starts, his 3.15 ERA was his best figure in a full season since 2014. Not only did he pitch well, but he also pitched deep into games, with his 6.6 innings per game being practically Old Hoss Radbourn-esque by modern standards. That was enough for third among qualifying pitchers behind only Kyle Hendricks and Trevor Bauer.

In a sense, 2020 was the completion of a comeback from Wainwright’s most recent season ruined by injury — a 2018 campaign in which he was shut down for most of the year due to a sore elbow. It was the fourth season he lost to injury as a pro, following 2015 (a ruptured Achilles tendon), ’11 (Tommy John surgery), and most of ’04 (a partial UCL tear).

You could make the argument, however, that Wainwright was never struggling as much as his ERA suggested. We use a stat like FIP because it’s less volatile than ERA and tends to have more predictive value. Since 2016, Wainwright’s FIPs have been in a fairly tight band, with less than a half-run per game separating the worst year (4.36) from the best (3.93). He didn’t actually lose any velocity at this time, either — Waino was never a traditional power pitcher — and people were a bit too quick to give the eulogy for his career.

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Episode 907

This week on FanGraphs Audio, we talk shop with a major league backstop, get into the nuts and bolts of prospect lists, and plug the latest FanGraphs merch.

• To begin the program, David Laurila is joined by Alex Avila. They discuss how the game has changed since Avila debuted in 2009, from the front office to behind the plate. They also talk about what it was like to catch Zack Greinke, and who of the many great pitchers Avila has played with has had the best “stuff.” Note: this interview was recorded before Avila agreed to a deal with the Washington Nationals. [2:25]
• Following that, Eric Longenhagen is joined by Keith Law of The Athletic, who recently released his own top 100 prospects list. Eric and Keith discuss what a challenge it has been to evaluate prospect talent with no minor league season, and how unreliable reports from the alternate training sites can be. They also share how they’ve changed their methods since doing their first prospect rankings and how they continue to evolve. [24:26]

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