In Game 1 of the ALCS, the Astros out-hit the Rays, struck out eight fewer times, watched Framber Valdez whiff eight batters in six innings, put 13 runners on, and threatened in nearly every inning. They lost. In Game 2 of the ALCS, the Astros out-hit the Rays, struck out five fewer times, watched Lance McCullers Jr. whiff 11 batters in seven innings, put 16 balls into play at 95 mph or harder and 13 runners on base, and threatened in nearly every inning. They lost.

Game 3 of the ALCS, though, would be different. Jose Urquidy hit a season-high 98 mph with his fastball, striking out four through five innings. A first-inning homer from Jose Altuve gave the Astros an early lead. They out-hit the Rays yet again and put 11 runners on and threatened in nearly every inning.

They lost.

The battle for the American League is, barring a miracle comeback, over. In beating Houston 5–2, Tampa Bay took a 3–0 series lead in the best-of-seven matchup and can both clinch its first pennant in 12 years and deny the Astros their third of the last four seasons with a victory on Wednesday. The best team in the Junior Circuit during the truncated 2020 campaign has gone 8–2 this postseason and looked virtually unbeatable in every facet of the game. The pitching has been crisp, the defense has been perfect, the offense has kept the line moving. Throughout October, the Rays have been a well-oiled machine. Read the rest of this entry »

In the top of the ninth of this second game of the NLCS, Mark Melancon caught his second home run in two days. It was a rare feat for a closer, made all the rarer by the fact that both homers were hit by the same player, Ozzie Albies, and that both had come in the top of the ninth. But the unlikely catches were not entirely symmetrical. The home run in Game 1, a two-run shot, had put the Braves ahead 5-1, capping off a late rally that broke a tense 1-1 tie; the ball carried, as if placed by an unseen hand, directly into Melancon’s glove. He seemed more shocked than anything — with the game still fairly close, he was more concerned with preparing to close out the bottom of the ninth.

The home run in Game 2, though, was the cherry on top of a long day of scoring. It took a comfortable lead and made it that much more comfortable. When Albies made contact on a sinker from Adam Kolarek, Melancon saw his chance; he jogged over, made the catch, and broke into a celebratory trot around the bullpen.

.@ozzie to @Mark_Melancon_ has become the greatest tag team in Major League Baseball.#MixItUp pic.twitter.com/kjIe1crmjO

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) October 14, 2020

Read the rest of this entry »

Ronald Acuña Jr. unlocked a new offensive gear this year. He already had speed and power — he was only three stolen bases short of a 40/40 season in 2019, his first full season in the majors. That wasn’t an option this year, what with a 60-game slate, but what he did do is even more impressive: he started walking.

Acuña’s 18.8% walk rate was the fourth-highest in the major leagues. He drew walks at a higher rate than Carlos Santana, Joey Votto, and Mike Trout. This wasn’t some intentional walk mirage, either; it’s not often a great idea to walk the man batting in front of Freddie Freeman, and Acuña drew only two freebies all year. Instead, he came by it the regular way: he’s such a fearsome hitter that pitchers avoided the strike zone, and he started laying off more pitches that missed their mark.

That’s easier said than done — otherwise every hitter would be doing it. Acuña managed it, though. He didn’t do it magically; rather, he cut back on his swing rate everywhere. He swung less at pitches over the heart of the plate, and thinking “swing less often” let him cut back in every other region:

This newfound equilibrium presented a conundrum for opposing pitchers. Stay out of the zone, and you’re liable to put a stolen base threat on with Freeman batting next. Get too familiar, and you might get acquainted with Acuña’s 99th percentile hard hit rate. It’s a puzzle with no good answers.

Last year, Acuña had another wrinkle to his plate discipline game: he swung more than anyone else on 3-0. It was just another thing to think about: think of 3-0 as an automatic strike with the batter taking, and you were throwing batting practice to one of the best hitters in the game. Read the rest of this entry »

Have you ever wanted to watch a baseball game with the FanGraphs crew? Well, while we won’t be holding any in-person meetups this year, we would like to welcome you to the next-best thing.

Tonight as you settle in to watch the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, so, too, will Ben Clemens and Eric Longenhagen. The duo will be watching along from their respective abodes, chatting with each other and you about the game while sharing analysis and discussing article ideas, all live on our Twitch channel.

There are no tickets, fees, or asterisks, just us watching the baseball game together via the World Wide Web and inviting you, our readers, to join us. Tune in to the game tonight and then find us on the FanGraphs homepage or over on our Twitch page directly. We hope to see you then.

The ALCS between the Rays and Astros and the NLCS between the Dodgers and Braves have both produced tight, dramatic contests thus far, full of home runs and low scoring. As such, it’s a good time to check in on some of the trends that defined the brief 2020 season, and how they compare to what we’ve seen in the postseason, and how this October compares to recent regular and postseasons.

For starters, well, there are the starters. As I noted just two weeks into the abbreviated regular season, the length of the average start had fallen below five innings, and while it rose slightly over the remainder of the 2020 campaign, it still finished below five. Updating the table I included with that piece:

The year-to-year drop in innings per start was the largest we’ve seen in this span, and indeed the largest we’ve seen in the Wild Card era, if not longer. Granted, it was a short season, with a short ramp-up, expanded rosters, as well as a ton of seven-inning doubleheaders, something we’ve never seen at the major league level before, but that wasn’t really factor when I checked in on the first two weeks; I used data through August 5, at which point only one seven-inning doubleheader had been played.

Anyway, through this year’s Wild Card and Division Series, starting pitcher workloads decreased even further:

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays moved to within two wins of advancing to their second World Series in franchise history with a 4-2 victory over the Houston Astros. The scoring was relatively sparse, with five of the game’s six runs coming on three home runs.

Sadly, the game itself was at times overshadowed by the passing of legendary second baseman (and former Colt .45 and Astro) Joe Morgan at 77. Morgan was perhaps more famous for his part on the Big Red Machine, but he was also a key contributor during Houston’s early years. Astros manager Dusty Baker, the only manager in baseball to play against Morgan at his peak (Bud Black and Terry Francona, among others, faced him late in his career) and a friend, said a few words about the Hall of Famer before the game.

“He meant a lot to us, a lot to me, a lot to baseball, a lot to African Americans around the country. A lot to players that were considered undersized. He was one of the first examples of speed and power for a guy they said was too small to play.”

But baseball grinds on despite grief, and after Game 2 was done, Charlie Morton had earned his sixth career postseason win, improving his October line to 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 11 starts. While it will go down in the history books as a five-inning shutout, and the ninth consecutive playoff start in which he allowed two runs or fewer, Morton’s start wasn’t anywhere near as neat as you might expect if you only read the box score. The Astros frequently made solid contact but, thanks to the Rays’ defense and a bit of bad luck, failed to cash in on any of their opportunities. Houston left seven runners waiting futilely on the bags through five, only going down 1-2-3 once (in the fifth). Read the rest of this entry »

For much of Monday night’s Braves-Dodgers clash, the Dodgers seemed to be on the defensive. When the ninth inning began, the score was knotted at one (spoilers!). It was tied not because both teams were equal in the scorebook, but rather because the Braves had failed repeatedly to cash in on their chances.

Through eight innings, Atlanta left 10 runners on base to Los Angeles’ five. In the fourth, they put two aboard with consecutive one-out walks against Walker Buehler, who struggled with his control all night. Two on, one out: these are the situations that can make or break a start, and Buehler skated out of trouble by retiring Nick Markakis and Austin Riley.

In the sixth, the Braves knocked again. Travis d’Arnaud and Ozzie Albies led off the inning with singles, chasing Buehler from the game. Brusdar Graterol came in with no one out and precious little margin for error. When he escaped without damage — in six overpowering pitches, no less — he and Buehler exulted in it:

Read the rest of this entry »

8:02	Dan Szymborski: Greetings chatters and chat-readers

8:03	Dan Szymborski: Because not ALL OF YOU are actually chatting. Some are reading the chats.

8:03	Dan Szymborski: But does being a chatter require participation? Or is passive chatting allowed? That’s a philosophical question.

8:05	Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they’re not pleased as punch, but they can spend somewhat inefficiently and survive. And how many teams are better at getting use out of limited, underperforming players than the Dodgers?

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the Honda Fit being discontinued, then discuss Game 5 of the Yankees-Rays ALDS, why this postseason’s strikeout-centric, home-run-reliant brand of baseball may be entertaining to hardcore fans but a turnoff to non-fans, the ALCS and NLCS matchups, the incredible depth of the Rays and Dodgers, whether (and why) offensive strikeout rate is a strong predictor of team postseason success, how Dodgers architect Andrew Friedman has put his stamp on every championship series, Friedman’s case as the baseball executive of the century so far, and the deaths of Hall of Famers Joe Morgan and Whitey Ford.

Audio intro: Hinds, "Riding Solo"
Audio outro: Parliament, "Deep"

Link to article about Honda Fit
Link to Ben on the Yankees’ ALDS loss
Link to Joe Sheehan’s newsletter
Link to Ben on contact hitters versus velocity
Link to Eno Sarris on predicting postseason success
Link to Ben on moving the mound back
Link to Pages From Baseball’s Past
Link to Craig Wright on Whitey Ford
Link to Jay Jaffe on Whitey Ford
Link to FanGraphs playoff coverage

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS