Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about why MLB reportedly isn’t interested in short-term expansion and an observation about Tyler Glasnow, Martin Shkreli, and Cillian Murphy, then review the accuracy of last year’s annual ESPN MLB insiders survey, predict and assess the responses to the just-released, latest edition of the survey, answer a listener email about the cutoff for “young” players, and share a Stat Blast about Byron Buxton and the lowest on-base percentages by league-average hitters (plus an addendum on the longest baseball player Wikipedia pages).

Audio intro: Oasis, "Stay Young"
Audio outro: The Just Joans, "No Longer Young Enough"

Link to Stark’s story about Dombrowski
Link to story about NBA expansion
Link to Sam on the Crasnicks in 2012
Link to Sam on the Crasnicks in 2014
Link to last year’s Rogers MLB insiders survey
Link to this year’s Rogers MLB insiders survey
Link to Ben on young hitters and aging curves
Link to lowest OBP list
Link to lowest OBP+ list
Link to longest baseball player Wikipedia pages

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Last month, we at FanGraphs put out a call for broadcaster ratings. The votes are now in. Starting yesterday and continuing today, we are releasing a compilation of those rankings, as well as selected commentary from each team’s responses. A similar survey of radio broadcasts will follow early next year, with a final summation at some point after that.

As a refresher, our survey asked for scores on four axes. If you’d like a thorough explanation of them, as well as a listing of each team’s broadcast groups, you can read our articles for the East, Central, and West divisions. I’ll also recap them briefly here before starting off with the bottom third of the league.

The “Analysis” score covers the frequency and quality of a broadcast team’s discussion of baseball. This isn’t limited to statistical analysis, and many of the booths that scored best excelled at explaining pitching mechanics. This score represents how much viewers feel they learn *about baseball* by watching.

“Charisma” covers the amount of enjoyment voters derive from listening to the announcers fill space, which takes on many forms. The booths that scored best on charisma varied wildly, from former players recounting stories of their glory days to unintentional comedy and playful banter between long-term broadcast partners.

“Coherence” focuses on play-by-play, but it also covers how well broadcasters stay in tune with the game. The most coherent broadcasts strike a balance between telling stories and informing viewers of the current state of the game. That’s a tough balance to strike, and many broadcasts that scored well on charisma did worse in terms of coherence. Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so. That’s an exaggeration, but not an extreme one: ZiPS hasn’t projected them outside the 85–90 win range in a full season since 2011. Going back to the first official ZiPS team standings in 2005 — I only did players in the initial couple of years — St. Louis’ projections have been below .500 once (2008) and above 90 wins once (2010). The lineup rarely has superstars at the top of the lineup, but the Cards have a knack for keeping their floor incredibly high.

Read the rest of this entry »

When an organization has a potential glut of players who play the same position, it’s usually more of a nuisance than a serious problem. Having more major league-caliber players than your roster can hold is never a bad thing, and the issue can often be solved by sliding players down the defensive spectrum. It can be inconvenient to shift a middle infielder into an outfield corner or a corner outfielder to first base, but it’s worth doing if the bats are worth it.

It gets trickier, though, if the overcrowded area happens to be behind the plate. Lifetime catchers rarely possess the athleticism necessary to move to another up-the-middle position and usually can’t hit enough to clear the offensive bar required at a corner spot. It’s incredibly difficult to find sustained playing time for more than two catchers over the course of a season, though because of the scarcity of talented catchers around the majors, it’s rare that a team needs to worry about that.

The Blue Jays are facing exactly that predicament. If you look at our Depth Charts, you’ll find them ranked fourth in the majors in projected catcher WAR for next season, which could come as a surprise to a lot of baseball fans, since none of their backstops are household names. But three of them — Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Reese McGuire — rank inside the top 30 catchers in baseball according to the 2021 ZiPS projections. What’s more, all three of those catchers are at similar stages in their development: Each is young and has little left to prove in the minors but has yet to break out in the big leagues. All that’s left to learn is how they handle the majors, which creates the challenge for Toronto of deciding just how best to divvy up opportunities between the three. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2013 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Like Mark McGwire, his rival in the great 1998 home run chase, Sammy Sosa was hailed at the height of his popularity as a hero, a Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year, and a great international ambassador for baseball. In the same year that McGwire set a new single-season record with 70 home runs, Sosa hit 66 and took home the National League MVP award. Three times in a four-year stretch from 1998 to 2001, he surpassed Roger Maris‘ previously unbreakable mark of 61 homers, and he hit more homers over a five- or 10-year stretch than any player in history. In 2007, he became just the fifth player to reach the 600-home-run milestone after Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds.

As with McGwire, the meaning of Sosa’s home runs changed once baseball began to crack down on performance-enhancing drugs, with suspicions mounting about his achievements. He was called to testify before Congress in 2005, along with McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and several other players. Sosa denied using PEDs, but while he never tested positive once Major League Baseball began instituting penalties for usage, The New York Times reported in 2009 that he was one of more than 100 players who had done so during the supposedly anonymous survey tests six years prior. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cincinnati Reds. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been altered begin by telling you so. For the others, the blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside the org than within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there. Lastly, in effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both in lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about ballpark renaming, follow up on their discussion about managers getting fired for their actions in a single game, discuss how the history of baseball’s sabermetric movement predicts the trajectory and ramifications of analytics use in football and other sports, and reflect on the significance of the Phillies hiring Sam Fuld as their new general manager, what the return of ex-player high-ranking execs may portend for front-office diversity, and Fuld’s lengthy Wikipedia page, then (51:15) talk to Driveline Baseball hitting intern and college baseball player Luisa Gauci about her multi-continent baseball odyssey from Australia to the U.S., her quest to bring data-driven development to women’s baseball, rewriting the scouting scale, why she’s determined to keep playing baseball, her work at Driveline, hitting technology vs. pitching technology, and more.

Audio intro: Mattiel, "Just a Name"
Audio interstitial: Of Montreal, "It’s Different for Girls"
Audio outro: Neuseiland, "Write it Down (Radio Sonic)"

Link to article about the Coliseum’s new name
Link to 2003 Grady Little article
Link to Ben on revisiting the Grady Little game
Link to EW episode about sabermetrics breaking baseball
Link to EW football vs. baseball analysis interview
Link to football Multisport Sabermetrics Exchange episode
Link to The Athletic on the new Phillies front office
Link to story on the GM demographics shift
Link to Breslow interview
Link to Jalen Rose analytics comments
Link to Jackie Bradley Jr. tweet
Link to article about front-office hiring
Link to Fuld’s Wikipedia page
Link to Lookout Landing article
Link to Luisa’s scouting scale presentation
Link to Baseball For All website

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles.

Batters

The 2020 Orioles were hard not to like. There was no reason to think they would be competitive, yet they hung around the edges of the playoff race until a 5–14 finish dropped them out of contention. I won’t lie: It was somewhat satisfying to this Baltimore native to watch the O’s beat out the Mookie Betts-less Red Sox for fourth in the AL East and take their first trip out of the basement since 2016.

It’s doubtful, though, that 2020’s surprising run was the leading edge of something bigger. Anthony Santander’s .261/.315/.575 campaign may have been enough to elevate him over the rest of the team’s deep stable of Quad-A sluggers, but a lot of the winning was due to good years from players like José Iglesias and Tommy Milone, who were never going to be part of the core going forward. What is encouraging is that unlike the Phillies of several years ago, the front office didn’t learn the wrong lesson from the team’s ephemeral success, resisting any July attempt to stockpile random veterans.

The makings of a competent offense are present more so than in recent offseasons, with much fewer negative WAR projections. The larger problem is that there’s just not a lot of star talent in this lineup. Adley Rutschman is the team’s best chance to swim against that current in the short-term, and there’s a great deal of potential remaining in Ryan Mountcastle‘s bat, but other prospects like Heston Kjerstad, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Terrin Vavra are going to take a little longer. And as great a story as Trey Mancini’s comeback from colon cancer is, by the time the O’s are ready to compete for real in normal seasons, he’s likely going to be in another uniform. Read the rest of this entry »

What strikes me most about Howie Kendrick’s career is how close we came to missing it entirely. The line drives, the slick grin, the home run that sealed the 2019 World Series and the epic celebration with Adam Eaton that followed: Were it not for a dutiful scout in the right place at the right time, we’d have missed it all.

As you’ve probably heard by now, Kendrick announced his retirement Monday afternoon. The 37-year-old is just a year removed from arguably the best season of his career, but he slumped badly in 2020 and suffered yet another hamstring injury in September. We can’t say for sure whether those two factors weighed on his mind when he decided to hang them up. But what we do know is that while he’s not going to have a plaque in Cooperstown, Kendrick was one of the best second baseman of his time. He retires with a ring, 30 WAR, and a starting spot on the “what do you mean that guy only played in one All-Star Game?” team.

Kendrick was born in Jacksonville and grew up in nearby Callahan. In high school, he was a good but undistinguished shortstop who graduated with no professional prospects. He was short back then, just 5-foot-7 at the time, and he didn’t even play summer ball. Nobody recruited him, and he actually got cut from a few junior college teams before landing at St. John’s River Community College.

The program at St. John’s has flourished in recent seasons, but when Kendrick made the team at the turn of the century it was an obscure baseball outpost with no recent history of producing talent. Tom Kotchman, an Angels scout in Florida then and the kind of baseball lifer who sneaks into these sorts of stories all the time, only saw him play by chance, thanks to a tip from another coach in the region. St. John’s wasn’t exactly a regular pit stop for him: He once quipped that “the last guy drafted out of that school went to Vietnam,” and while that isn’t true, you get the point he’s making.

Still, it didn’t take long for Kotchman to realize that Kendrick’s bat was special. He spent the spring hoping nobody else would stumble onto his sleeper, and when none did, his reports glowed brightly enough for the Angels to draft him in the 10th round. Read the rest of this entry »