It’s grimly fitting that San Diego’s playoff drought would end in a year like this. After nearly 15 years of baseball as forgettable as the half-dozen jerseys they cycled through in that time, of course the Padres snapped their October skid in such an exciting matter — and in such killer threads — right when nobody could come watch them do it. Par for the course for arguably the country’s most luckless sports city.

But for any Friars fan who can overcome the first half of “bittersweet,” the deck is actually stacked pretty well for them here. While any fair bracket would slot them in the two-seed most years, this season’s weird format actually plays to their advantage. Anything can happen in a short series but at least this set isn’t as short as it would have been normally: Were this any of the past eight seasons, San Diego would have suffered the misfortune of posting the league’s second-best record and getting a trip to the coin-flip round for their trouble.

Instead, they’ll live to fight another day if Game 1 goes south, an extra benefit given their opponent. Few clubs would be at a significant disadvantage in a best of three, but if you were looking to tip the scales toward one side, you’d have their foe limp into the series physically and mentally drained. Such is the case here, where the Padres battle the beleaguered St. Louis Cardinals, who are still catching their breath from playing 10 double headers over the past 45 days.

A baseball season is said to be a marathon, not a sprint; for St. Louis in 2020, it was arguably both. Given their daunting schedule, the Redbirds can be slightly forgiven for mediocre underlying metrics. I’ll buy the idea that they’re a little better than they played. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a misconception about FIP and how to weigh FIP and ERA in evaluating pitcher performance after the fact, the Phillies’ failure to make the playoffs and how the outcome of their season affects (and should affect) the future of their front office, Jacob deGrom’s ever-increasing velocity and how his record fastball speed changes his long-term outlook, what the playoff field would have been after a 54-game season instead of a 60-game season, the lack of stakes at the end of the season, and the strike zone in the final regular-season game.

Audio intro: Elvis Costello, "Welcome to the Working Week"
Audio outro: Dear Nora, "Rollercoaster"

Link to Beyond the Scrum episode
Link to Bowden article
Link to blown leads percentage update
Link to deGrom’s Brooks Baseball page
Link to Rob Arthur on deGrom’s velocity
Link to Travis Sawchik on deGrom’s velocity
Link to Ben on 60-game-season randomness
Link to article on unique playoff matchups
Link to FanGraphs playoff previews

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As the final day of the season dawned, there were no fewer than six possible matchups for this series, with the Twins, White Sox, and Indians all having paths to second place in the AL Central and the number four seed, and likewise for the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL East and the number five seed. The Yankees fell to the Marlins, 5-0, their sixth loss in the past eight games, but because the Blue Jays blew a 4-1 lead and lost to the Orioles, New York finished 33-27, barely holding onto second. Meanwhile the Indians dug their way out of a 6-2 hole against the Pirates, and only when the White Sox’s comeback from a 10-1 deficit stalled at 10-8, with the tying run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth on a questionable called strike was this matchup set.

The Indians finished with the better record, going 35-25, but a slightly worse run differential (+39 versus +45), but how the two teams got there is very different. The Yankees led the AL in scoring (5.25 runs per game) and wRC+ (116) while ranking sixth in run prevention (4.50 runs per game). The Indians, on the other hand, tied for second-to-last in the AL in scoring (4.13 runs per game) and were second-to-last in wRC+ (86), but they were the stingiest team in the AL, allowing just 3.48 runs per game. As this series will be played entirely at Progressive Field, the Yankees’ offensive advantage may not be all it’s cracked up to be.

Worth noting: Indians manager Terry Francona has been sidelined by gastrointestinal and blood clot issues for most of the season, managing just 14 games, during which his team went 8-6. First base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. has been serving as acting manager since mid-August and will likely remain in that capacity through the postseason, though Francona has entered the bubble to keep that option in play. The team has gone 28-18 on Alomar’s watch.

Rotations

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a day away from the start of a bizarre, expanded postseason, one with an abnormally large field of teams, a short Wild Card round that makes the better ones unusually vulnerable, and a five-game Division round without an off day. The postseason’s new structure presents one-time advantages and disadvantages that could impact series outcomes. I’ve considered which aspects of roster construction might suit this unique situation (some more familiar than others) to determine which lower-seeded teams are especially strong and are perhaps teed up to make a sneaky deep October run.

For this exercise I’m only considering teams that currently have a winning percentage under .550, since while the Yankees and White Sox are currently seeded fifth and seventh respectively in the American League, I think they’re quite good and relegated to a lower seed purely due to the quality of their divisions. They’re not sleepers, they’re just a lower-seeded contenders. Let’s begin by looking at the obvious criteria.

It’s a tale as old as time, but having starters who can twirl a gem gives you a puncher’s chance in a playoff series. Even if your offense does nothing, a dominant start means you’re, at worst, in a close game with a chance to squeak out a victory despite scoring few runs.

I’m certain this category is the one already most familiar to even casual baseball fans, let alone FanGraphs readers, who can all point at Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray and know the Reds are especially dangerous in this respect. But I wanted to apply some amount of rigor and objectivity to this to make sure I’m not either overrating or overlooking anyone. So I turned to Game Score Version 2. It’s a nice shorthand more than it is a precise, meaningful stat, but while FIP (which I’ve also included in the following table) is a better proxy for overall pitcher quality, I wanted a measure that indicates a pitcher’s capacity to have a dominant and/or elite-level start. As such, in the table is each pitcher’s 2020 FIP, as well as how many times they’ve had a Game Score v2 start of 65 (Strong Starts) or better, and how many they’ve had at 72 (Elite Starts) or better. Read the rest of this entry »

For the first time since the 2006 postseason, the Minnesota Twins will face a first-round opponent that isn’t the New York Yankees. Their previous four playoff appearances have resulted in futility in the Bronx, getting swept in three Division Series and one Wild Card game. It must be a relief to see another opponent across the diamond.

The Astros enter the 2020 postseason on their back foot. After dominating the American League West for the last three years, winning a World Series championship in 2017, and losing in the World Series last year, the Astros limped their way into the playoffs in this abbreviated season. Despite being the sixth seed, they had the worst regular season record among the AL playoff field:

This three-game series is a matchup between two opponents with plenty to prove. Both teams’ offenses have taken a step back from what they accomplished last year. The Bomba Squad has seen its home run output drop a bit this season. After smashing the major league single-season home run record in 2019, the Twins launched the sixth most home runs in the majors in 2020. While the power was still mostly intact, their overall offensive production fell to just above league average. Diminished seasons from a few key players is the likely culprit. Miguel Sanó, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver each saw their wRC+ drop by at least 38 points, with Garver’s dropping by an incredible 114 points. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 889

The latest episode of FanGraphs Audio is here in time to preview the 16-team playoff bracket. The Astros continue to receive a closer look as they enter the playoffs (they’re far from the favorites this time around), while the staff prepares for predictions — as well as some impressive callbacks.

• Dan Szymborski and Jay Jaffe continue their Houston talk from last week, but this time, they set their sights on Jose Altuve. The 2017 AL MVP has not been at his best this season, and it could mean troubling things for his baseball future. [1:53]
• Eric Longenhagen chats with Jason Martinez, creator of the invaluable RosterResource, about a number of players who were off the radar before this season who are now mainstays for their clubs. Finally, the pair take a shot at predicting the results of the eight Wild Card Series. While picking playoff winners is a often a fruitless endeavor, Jason will remind you that he aced it last year. [27:32]

Read the rest of this entry »

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The Chicago White Sox very nearly pulled off the shock of baseball’s dramatic final day of the regular season on Sunday. They entered the afternoon trailing the Minnesota Twins by a single game in the American League Central, but could still steal the division crown with a victory and a Twins loss. That bit of intrigue quickly felt moot when the Cubs stormed ahead 6-0 in the second inning and took a 10-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning, but with Minnesota in the midst of a tight battle with Cincinnati, the White Sox didn’t quit. They scored seven runs over the final two innings and brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the ninth in the form of outfielder Nomar Mazara, who had already collected two hits.

Just as suddenly as Chicago’s rally came together, however, it came to an end. An Andrew Chafin fastball on a 2-2 count finished close enough to Mazara’s knees for the home plate umpire to rule it strike three, putting an end to the hopes of a division title and early home field advantage for the White Sox. Don’t feel too badly for them, though — they still have postseason berth, their first since 2008 and just their second since winning the World Series in 2005. They’ll enter the postseason as the No. 7 seed, meaning they will travel to Oakland and take on the No. 2-seed Athletics in a best-of-three Wild Card series beginning on Tuesday.

The last 11 years of playoff-less baseball on the south side of Chicago haven’t all been lost causes. The 2010 team won 88 games, but missed the postseason because the New York Yankees got the then-lone Wild Card spot with 95 wins. In 2012, the White Sox won 85 games, but again missed the playoffs because there were seven AL teams that won at least 88. The following year, the White Sox slipped to 63-99, and haven’t won more than 78 in any season since. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball’s playoff format has always thumbed its nose at analysis. Five games in a divisional series, five piddling games, to determine which team is more worthy of a championship? Those teams might be separated by 20 games in the standings, and still, three hot starts by so-so pitchers could send either squad home.

This year, that arbitrary nature is in overdrive. The Blue Jays and Rays will play at most three games to settle who moves on and who goes home. Blink, and the Rays could be a game away from elimination despite winning eight more games in the regular season, the equivalent of a 22-game gap in a 162-game season.

Don’t mistake the fact that three games feels short, however, for some statement that this series is a toss-up, a 50/50 proposition. The Rays are favored, and they should be! They’re better, and while better might not mean as much over three games as it does over 60, it’s not meaningless. Tampa Bay is a full-blown juggernaut, while Toronto is an exciting team that still has more work to do to build a year-in, year-out contender.

Statements that the playoffs favor offense or defense are short-sighted. The playoffs favor outscoring your opponents by any available means. The Rays aren’t favored in this series specifically because their pitching is better — but make no mistake, their pitching is better. In fact, they’ll inarguably have the advantage in all three potential games of this series, after accounting for starters and the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past two days, the playoff picture has begun to come into full focus. The Marlins, Reds, and Astros all clinched playoff berths on Friday night — the last of those not with a victory of their own but one by the Dodgers, of all teams — while the Rockies and Angels were eliminated. On Saturday, the Mets bit the dust as well. Thus as we head into the abbreviated season’s final day, the eight AL teams have been decided, albeit not all of the seedings, while 10 NL teams remain alive.

In the NL, the top four seeds have been secured: the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs (who clinched the NL Central on Saturday night), and Padres will be seeds 1-4 in that order. Still at stake are the middles of the NL East and Central standings:

In the NL Central, with the Brewers splitting Friday’s doubleheader with the Cardinals and then winning on Saturday as well while the Reds lost, the three teams enter Sunday separated by a game, with St. Louis hosting Milwaukee and Cincinnati at Minnesota on Sunday. Apparently, I missed a memo regarding the potential make-up doubleheader involving the Cardinals and Tigers; they would play one or two games in Detroit on Monday only if it they have the potential to give the Cardinals home-field advantage (no longer the case) or determine whether they’re in or out; if it’s seeding in the 5-8 range, they’ll be judged on winning percentage. Read the rest of this entry »