2:02	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s nearly 70 degrees outside in Brooklyn and it’s taking all of the willpower I can muster to remain in front of the computer for this chat, but a commitment is a commitment, and I’m here. A bit of housekeeping before we launch this thing forward…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the historical precedents for Juan Soto’s performance and what that could mean with regards to a contract extension and a spot in Cooperstown https://blogs.fangraphs.com/extending-juan-soto-all-the-way-to-coopers…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I took a look at the impact on the Yankees’ bullpen caused by the loss of Zack Britton, who’s having surgery to remove bone chip(s) in his elbow. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/loss-of-britton-puts-a-dent-in-yankees-bul…

2:05

Jay Jaffe: And in a trifecta, I took a look at the spring debuts of Shohei Ohtani, David Price, and Stephen Strasburg, and the implications for their respective teams .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-is-on-the-comeback-trail/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-is-ready-for-whatever-and-so-a… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strasburgs-return-and-a-thumbnail-guide-to…

2:05	Jay Jaffe: I also spoke to RJ McDaniel about Ohtani for today’s FanGraphs Audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-joe-block-talks-pirates/ And now, on with the show.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Fernando Tatis Jr. landing a massive, jaw-dropping contract extension last month, all eyes are now on the game’s other 22-year-old phenom and his next step. Juan Soto has hit at an historical level during his three seasons in the majors, landing himself on leaderboards among legends like Williams, Foxx, Hornsby, Cobb, and Trout. Reportedly, the Nationals intend to offer him a long-term extension, one that could in theory make him the game’s next $400 million man — a contract befitting a player who has already taken significant strides towards Cooperstown.

That may seem like hyperbole, but it’s not. Though Soto has played only one full 162-game season from among his three, the statistical history of players who have done what he’s done at such a young age overwhelmingly suggests a Hall of Fame-level career, and the projections based on his performance… well, we’ll get to those.

The Dominican-born Soto reached the majors on May 20, 2018, still more than five months shy of his 20th birthday. The next day, in his second major league plate appearance, he homered off the Padres’ Robbie Erlin, and he hasn’t stopped hitting, though he did his best to warp the space-time continuum by homering in the June 18 leg of a suspended game that began on May 15. Soto completed his rookie season with 22 homers and a .292/.406/.517 (146 wRC+) line, then followed up with a 34-homer, .282/.401/.548 (142 wRC+) full-season showing. In the pandemic-shortened season, he became not only the youngest player to win a batting title but also the youngest to win the slash-stat triple crown, hitting .351/.490/.695 (201 wRC+) with 13 homers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 913

This week on FanGraphs Audio, we are joined by a major league broadcaster, who brought stories from Florida and the booth with him, before we get excited about baseball’s most enticing player.

• At the start of the show, David Laurila sits down with Pittsburgh Pirates broadcaster Joe Block. David and Joe discuss how spring training is going so far, both for Joe and the Pirates, as well as the Blue Jays’ controversial plans for their radio broadcast this year. Joe also discusses the potential broadcasting futures of a few Pittsburgh players and shares stories about Ernie Harwell and Bob Walk. [2:19]
• After that, Jay Jaffe is joined by RJ McDaniel to talk about Shohei Ohtani mania. Jay and RJ each wrote earlier this week about how the two-way phenom still offers plenty to be optimistic about. They go over Ohtani’s own comments on his struggles, how his unique hype compares to that of Bo Jackson, and how his potential represents a bright spot after a long and challenging winter. [30:28]

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Given their disdain for our society, our laws, and our little entertainments, it makes sense that geese are not as common a visitor to professional ballparks as, say, cats. Geese prefer to create their own domains in areas less enclosed and busied by human activities, like golf courses and public green spaces. References to geese on baseball fields in old newspaper records are hard to find — perhaps because of the perceived non-newsworthiness of such incidents, perhaps because of the number of baseball players and ballparks with “Goose” in their names. But, every so often, a goose does appear on a field where major league baseball is being played. It happened just this week, in fact, at Sunday’s game between the Cubs and the Diamondbacks: a lone Canada goose in the grass at Salt River Fields, emanating hostility. It lurked behind Rafael Ortega, its eerily long neck extended outward, ready to strike anyone who might interfere with its presence there, its ego puffed up by the violence with which it had preserved its claim over the territory. Slo-mo footage showed how this goose had chased off another goose that landed on the field, clamping its screaming beak on the interloping goose’s back, tearing out a painful-looking number of feathers before the other goose was able to make its escape.

Naturally, coverage of the carnage tended toward shock at the goose’s willingness to fight for its claim to a spot in the outfield, and its unwillingness to leave said spot. The video above is titled “Goose invades baseball field!”; other headlines include “A goose took over [the] outfield,” “Angry goose wanders onto field,” and “A**hole Goose Won’t Get Out of Center Field.” While the level of intention ascribed to the goose differs, what can be agreed upon is that center field was not where the goose — and, by extension, any goose — is supposed to be. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. Each blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report if there were any. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Here we go again. This week, I dip into the deep FanGraphs talent pool and welcome Eric Longenhagen as the co-host. It’s a baseball-heavy discussion, as we talk about MLB’s scouting plans this season, what the hell the Rangers are doing by planning to fill their ballpark on Opening Day, and the early weirdness of the 2021 draft board. Later, we are joined by The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler, who talks about the vibes in Tampa, the Yankees, and how you can now return to camp just a few days after having a pacemaker installed. Then it’s lots of listener emails and a bit of culture before we depart after realizing that this thing is already more than two-and-a-half hours long. Now go put it in your ears.

Music by Nathan Bernaix.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (chin-music): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the new baseball format embraced by the Savannah Bananas, the experimental rules MLB is imposing at various levels of the minor leagues in 2021, and whether they would want to live in a ballpark (like a man who claims to have lived for three years in Veterans Stadium), then answer listener emails about whether this season’s spring training stats are more or less meaningless than usual, the ideal photo to represent baseball on the sport’s Wikipedia page, the definition of pitchability, whether the public’s perception of player mega-contracts has changed, whether this is the “tanking era” or the “superteam era,” and whether tanking is as bad as it’s cracked up to be, plus a Stat Blast about teams that scored the highest percentage of their total runs in one game.

Audio intro: Louis Prima, "Yes, We Have No Bananas"
Audio outro: Iron Maiden, "The Number of the Beast"

Link to story about the Bananas
Link to video about the Bananas
Link to MiLB rules changes announcement
Link to Jayson Stark on the new rules
Link to story about living in Veterans Stadium
Link to The Secret Apartment
Link to Dan Rosenheck on spring training stats
Link to Dan’s presentation on spring training stats
Link to Heyward photo from Wikipedia
Link to Alex Chamberlain on Hendricks
Link to A-Rod contract facts
Link to Zach Kram on the superteam era
Link to Ben on competitive balance and tanking
Link to Craig Edwards on competitive balance and tanking
Link to Craig on the 2019 competitive balance problem
Link to Stat Blast data

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for little more than a song this offseason, the team’s new ownership making a splash just two months after officially taking over. A one-year rental of Lindor’s services plus Carrasco was enough to give New York an argument for being the favored squadron in the NL East in a likely battle with Atlanta. But what’s the fun of being a large-market team if you’re not going to act like one? Just like the Dodgers, who quickly moved to ink Mookie Betts for the next dozen years after their blockbuster pickup, the Mets have deep pockets and play in a city with limitless revenue potential. Keeping Lindor, if possible, ought to be the team’s priority. Reggie Jackson didn’t go into the Hall of Fame as an Oriole!

While no concrete terms or even loose parameters have leaked, both Lindor’s camp and the Mets have been interested in talking deal. Waiting around to see what happens is one option, but it’s a good deal more fun to play fantasy billionaire ourselves. I didn’t develop a projection system just to get people mad at me — at least not entirely.

Mega-star contracts are difficult because you don’t have a lot of direct comparables. Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a monster 14-year, $340 million pact with the Padres, but there are reasons he should get more than Lindor: He’s five years younger and coming off an MVP-caliber season. On the flip side, Tatis also had less leverage, with four full seasons until free agency.

The best place to start is the basic projection for Lindor from 2022 on. I’m letting ZiPS decide where the endpoint is, given that we don’t have any specifics to work with.

Read the rest of this entry »

Despite an atypically mediocre performance from their bullpen last year, the Yankees project to have the strongest relief corps in 2021 according to our forecasting systems. However, their chances of fulfilling that expectation have taken a hit with the news that Zack Britton, the team’s top setup man, will undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone chip in his left elbow. The 33-year-old lefty could be out until mid-June or later.

Britton had already been slowed this spring by a bout of COVID-19, which he contracted in January while going to the hospital when his wife was giving birth to the couple’s fourth child. He told reporters that he lost 18 pounds and had been set back in his offseason throwing regimen. After experiencing elbow soreness in the wake of a bullpen session on Sunday, he underwent an MRI on Monday that showed the chip.

The surgery will be performed on March 15 by Dr. Christopher Ahmad, the Yankees’ team physician. As WFAN’s Sweeny Murti pointed out, Dr. Ahmad’s website suggests a timeline of six weeks before a pitcher undergoing such a procedure can be cleared to throw, and that a return to full competition could take 3-4 months:

Britton’s surgery will be performed by Yankees team Dr Chris Ahmad. Here is what his website says about timeline for removing a bone chip. h/t ?@Eric_M888? pic.twitter.com/cCULq0g7Qi

— Sweeny Murti (@SweenyMurti) March 10, 2021

Roughly speaking, three months from now means a mid-June return, and four months a return just after the All-Star break (the All-Star Game is scheduled for July 13 in Atlanta). Even a best-case scenario, involving a minimally invasive operation and a buildup to a reliever’s workload instead of a starter’s, might shave a month off that. In 2019, for example, the Rays’ Blake Snell missed about eight weeks after undergoing surgery to remove loose bodies (bone chips or cartilage fragments). He wasn’t built up to a full workload upon returning to help the Rays secure a Wild Card berth and reach the postseason, totaling just 10.1 innings in six appearances and maxing out at 62 pitches, but he was reasonably effective. Because this is happening out of the gate rather than towards the end of the season, the Yankees and Britton have less incentive to hurry back. Via ESPN’s Marly Rivera, Britton isn’t in a rush, saying, “However long that takes is how long I’m going to be out. I know that I’m going to be back with the team at some point this year and pitch significant innings. So that’s all that matters.” Read the rest of this entry »