FanGraphs Baseball

Welcome to the FanGraphs Feature Focus, a new semiweekly series highlighting some of the overlooked site tools at your disposal as a FanGraphs user. With so many great tools, leaderboards and stats here at FanGraphs, it can be easy to lose track; my goal is to shed light on them. Since I spend about half of my time working on RosterResource and the rest helping to develop new features and improve old ones, I’ve gotten very familiar with everything the site has to offer. What’s more, because I am extremely online, I’m very attuned to how others use FanGraphs, which means I have a good sense of which features aren’t getting as much traction as their utility suggests they should.

These posts will take on different forms depending on the FanGraphs Feature being focused upon. Sometimes they’ll be quicker “Hey, this exists, have fun!” pieces; sometimes they’ll be in-depth tutorials explaining how our more complex tools work. If there’s an unfamiliar feature in our site menus that you’d like to know more about, drop it in the comments below. It might become a future Feature Focus! Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! I hope you all enjoyed the three-day weekend.

12:02

Jay Jaffe: I flew solo while my wife and daughter drove upstate to visit my father-in-law (I had to stay behind to dog-sit). Did a lot of dad-puttering around the house, some repair projects, some yardwork, and a trek to Jersey City to see the 50th-anniversary celebration — and perhaps the final show ever — of The Feelies.

12:03

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, back to baseball. Before we get started, I need to note that as with last week, we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. This is still something we’re evaluationg. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I’m not sure. Yes, it’s harder to come up with a great third baseman, and the Phillies have had their problems there since then (Alec Bohm has had one season above 2.0 WAR) but I think Harper was the better fit for the city and the culture, as Machado has been for the city and culture in San Diego

12:07

Jay Jaffe: the two are almost dead even in fWAR 27.9 to 27.7 for Harper, and that’s with an additional 107 games missed due to injuries

Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Martin appears to be coming into his own. Playing in what is shaping up to be his first full major league season, the 27-year-old Minnesota Twins outfielder is slashing .289/.396/.394 with a pair of home runs and a 130 wRC+ over 169 plate appearances. His track record coming into the campaign was somewhat spotty. Hampered by injuries — hamstring and oblique strains among them — he’d played in just 143 big league games, 93 as a rookie in 2024, and 50 last year. Moreover, while his .698 OPS and 101 wRC+ were credible, they fell short of what is expected from a player with his pedigree. Martin was drafted fifth overall in 2020 by the Toronto Blue Jays out of Vanderbilt University.

Uneven performances down on the farm are also part of his backstory. Trying to be something he’s not is one of the reasons why. Acquired by the Twins in the 2021 trade deadline deal that sent José Berríos to Toronto, Martin attempted to hit for more power than what his natural skillset suggests he should. Subsequently returning to his roots has helped fuel his long-awaited breakthrough.

“Being healthy is part of it, but more than anything, I reverted back to the player I was in college,” explained Martin, who was an OBP machine (.474) over his three seasons as a Commodore. “When I got to professional baseball, I started trying to play the numbers game instead of playing the game itself. I got too far away from myself in terms of trying to pull the ball in the air, doing more damage, getting higher [exit] velocities. That’s never been the type of player I am. I’m just a baseball player. I don’t do anything that will jump at you. I’m more of a consistency, play-the-game-the-right-way sort of guy.”

I asked the DeLand, Florida native if the attempts to up his pop were largely org-driven, or more something that he aspired to do on his own. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. This is the first installment of that series. The introduction can be found here.

April 13
It’s somewhere around 9:30 PM and Derek Jr. is asleep. I am, briefly, watching baseball for the first time since she was born two weeks ago. The Mets and Dodgers are in the eighth inning. The main thing I notice is Joey Gerber’s delivery. I’ve never heard of Gerber before, but my daughter is wearing a Gerber brand onesie, and I sincerely hope he’s the heir to that particular fortune. His leg kick is a joy to behold:

It would be a grave understatement to say that Gerber has a high-energy delivery. Brendan Gawlowski called him funky. Eric Longenhagen said he had an “odd, chicken wing arm action.” I’m inclined to go with Ricky Conti, who called the delivery “violent, with tons of effort and recoil.” When you think of a pitcher’s leg kick, you think of, say, Justin Verlander smoothly raising his knee up toward his chest, his lower leg pointed straight down toward the rubber. Even Juan Marichal’s legendary leg kick started roughly the same way. He raised his knee, and at first, his lower leg merely came along for the ride. What made the leg kick famous was that Marichal’s foot just kept on rising long past the point where other pitchers’ stopped. He reared way back, intimidating the batter with the bottom of his spikes, and catapulted down the mound, the ultimate tall-and-fall delivery. Read the rest of this entry »

Hello. I have missed you. I have been on paternity leave for the past two months because — and I’m told this is the most common reason people go on paternity leave — my wife and I had a baby. Mostly, my wife had the baby while I said things like “You’re doing great,” and “I’m so proud of you,” and “Hey look, a baby,” but this is very much a team sport. Our free agent acquisition arrived loaded with tools like spiky hair, world-weary eyes, and a trapezoidal mouth with a cute little dimple just beneath it, but she’s a little short on big league experience. We’ll have to coach her up.

So now we have this baby girl. It’s unclear whether she’s a bouncing baby girl — we haven’t dropped her yet — but she certainly seems healthy enough. I’m looking at her right now. She’s sleeping in her crib all swaddled up like a salami. She is, as babies tend to be, adorable. She is also — and again I’m informed that this is standard — somewhat labor intensive.

While laboring over this novel life-form for the past two months, I have watched precious little baseball. I have done precious little anything other than care for my wife and child (or, as I am still getting used to calling it, my family). As a result, I am wildly underinformed about the latest developments in my field of expertise. The stray missives that reached my ears often left me with more questions than answers. Did somebody Monstars the NL East? Are we sure this is the same Ildemaro Vargas? When did all these bodies get so loose? Read the rest of this entry »

Erik Tolman has a remarkable backstory. Currently playing for the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, the 26-year-old left-hander threw to one of baseball’s most prolific pitchers as a prep, and that is a comparatively insignificant part of his past. His level of perseverance is nothing short of remarkable. Tolman has overcome debilitating injuries on his journey to the doorstep of the big leagues.

His travails began in 2021, the year the Washington Nationals drafted him in the 14th round out of Arizona State University. He had the first of two Tommy John surgeries, costing him all but three games in his final collegiate campaign — and his bad fortune was only just beginning.

“I tore my UCL again at the end of my rehab,” Tolman explained. “Fourteen months after having surgery, in my last live ABs, I felt my elbow go again. It was a sad moment, honestly. But I talked to my family, and I believed in myself — I thought I could still be a big-leaguer — so I kept at it. Unfortunately, on my fifth start back, in August 2023, I dislocated my knee. That made for a whole new mountain that I’ve had to climb.

“The injuries have driven me to have a work ethic, and a mental fortitude, of just going balls to the wall,” he added. “I figured I could either struggle coming back from the injuries, playing baseball, or struggle out in the real world. At the end of the day, we’re the ones responsible for our lives and careers. If you get hurt, are you going to cave, or are you going to overcome?”

Tolman did far more than simply dislocate a knee after returning from the second TJ. What happened was not only catastrophic: it was hard to fathom. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to know what to expect from a pitcher returning from a serious injury. In addition to velocity and spin rate, pitching is also about rhythm and feel, and that can take time to come back after a long layoff. But there was little rust for Gerrit Cole to shake off when he made his season debut Friday night at Yankee Stadium. In his first major league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery on March 11, 2025, Cole silenced the first-place Rays, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out two across six scoreless innings. His only real trouble came in the first inning, when he gave up a leadoff single to Chandler Simpson and walked Junior Caminero to put two on with nobody out. After a Jonathan Aranda fly out, Cole picked the speedy Simpson off second base and then struck out Yandy Díaz looking at an inside fastball to end the inning. From there, he got in a groove. He averaged 96.1 mph with his four-seamer, and he threw 50 of his 72 pitches for strikes.

Cole left the game with the lead, but the Rays scored four runs in the top of the eighth inning to take the first game of the series, 4-2. They now lead the Yankees in the AL East by 5.5 games. Watching the Rays play Friday night, I couldn’t help but think about how annoying they would be to play against. They pitch well, put the ball in play, and are aggressive on the bases. One Yankee told me before the game that they remind him of last year’s Blue Jays because of their pesky bottom of the lineup and refusal to strike out. I’m still not sure how good the Rays are, but I get the feeling that they are always going to be better than I think.

In this week’s mailbag, we discuss another surprising team over the first two months of the season. We’ll also answer your questions about how many players in baseball have the ability to win MVP, how good Randy Johnson and other all-time-great starting pitchers would’ve been as closers, and why the 9-9-9 challenge beers are so small. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Mason Miller’s recent “struggles,” whether the Tigers will trade Tarik Skubal, and how different baseball would be if the Angels had traded Shohei Ohtani, plus (44:05) more than a dozen Stat Blasts.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: PJ Harding, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to previous Miller banter 1
Link to previous Miller banter 2
Link to Miller sample 1
Link to Miller sample 2
Link to article about Grogu promo
Link to Grogu promo
Link to Triton Ballpark wiki
Link to Yaddle at Wookieepedia
Link to Ben on The Mandalorian and Grogu
Link to Kimbrel blog post
Link to MLBTR on Kimbrel
Link to Heyman on a Skubal trade
Link to Murray on a Skubal trade
Link to Olney on a Skubal trade
Link to Skubal bullpen sessions article
Link to trade deadline date article
Link to playoff odds
Link to Clark quote about “the pant”
Link to Rosenthal on 2023 Ohtani talks
Link to Rosenthal on 2022 Ohtani talks
Link to Seidler wiki
Link to MLBTR on Boras/Seidler/Soto
Link to Blum post about Johnson
Link to team pitcher development rankings
Link to “If baseball were different” wiki
Link to Mains on regular-season splits
Link to reverse records
Link to post about three-team combos
Link to Marlins/Cardinals/Twins candidates
Link to Marlins/Cardinals players
Link to Marlins/Twins players
Link to Cardinals/Twins players
Link to 2025 Sánchez game
Link to 2003 Clement game
Link to 2023 Thompson game
Link to 1968 Roseboro game
Link to all-hits-after-oh-fers list
Link to McGwire Simpsons clip
Link to Hill homer
Link to Hill PED admission
Link to Hill transactions
Link to post-trade improvers
Link to 2024 Ray slam game
Link to 2025 NL Cy voting
Link to 2021 AL Cy voting
Link to 2011 NL Cy voting
Link to 1986 NL Cy voting
Link to 1971 O’s rotation article
Link to Maxwell defensive game
Link to Sandberg defensive game
Link to McAuliffe defensive game
Link to team run differentials
Link to team runs scored
Link to team runs allowed
Link to Mets extra-innings game
Link to most blown saves in game
Link to 2021 blown-saves game
Link to 1995 blown-saves game
Link to 1983 Rangers-A’s game
Link to 1901 Bernhard game
Link to Bernhard’s 1901 game log
Link to Bernhard’s 1901 opponent splits
Link to 2025 Pressly game
Link to most hits by sub
Link to 1902 Danny Murphy game
Link to Murphy game info 1
Link to Murphy game info 2
Link to Murphy game info 3
Link to Clerks quote
Link to listener emails database
Link to 1991 Phillies game
Link to Griffin video board fun fact
Link to list of ballpark claimants
Link to “Fever” song wiki
Link to article about White Sox collision
Link to article about Hawk’s call
Link to video of collision/call
Link to photo of collision
Link to comment about Boone’s signals
Link to Boone’s flapping signal

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Data Scientist, Innovation – Baseball Analytics

DEPARTMENT: R&D Baseball Operations
ORGANIZATION: Chicago Cubs
REPORTS TO: Assistant Director, Baseball Analytics
LOCATION: Chicago, IL
FLSA STATUS: Exempt
COMPENSATION: $80,000 – $150,000 USD

BEING PART OF THE TEAM
Our business is a team sport that began on a field with baseballs and bats and has evolved into one of the most recognizable brands in sports and entertainment through Cubs baseball and live events. Our success is driven by our people, who work to create and inspire change in an engaging, collaborative and inclusive environment. As a team, we continue to build a culture on and off the field that delivers unforgettable experiences for one another, our fans and community. In support of that effort, we expect associates to work primarily in our office. Are you ready to be part of it?

OUR STORY
The Chicago Cubs franchise, a charter member of Major League Baseball’s National League since 1876, has won the National League pennant 17 times and was the first team to win back-to-back World Series titles in the 1907 and 1908 seasons. In 2016, the Chicago Cubs made history again when the team won its first World Series in 108 years, ending the longest championship drought in North American sports. Known for its ivy-covered outfield walls, hand-operated scoreboard and famous Marquee, iconic Wrigley Field has been the home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916 and is the second oldest ballpark in Major League Baseball. In 2009, the Ricketts family assumed ownership of the Chicago Cubs and established three main goals for the organization: Win the World Series, Preserve and Improve Wrigley Field, and Be a Good Neighbor.

HOW YOU’LL CONTRIBUTE
The Chicago Cubs are seeking a Data Scientist, Innovation within Baseball Analytics focused on advancing analytics, modeling, and applied research across Baseball Operations. This role will focus on developing cutting-edge machine learning models, exploring novel analytical approaches, and translating complex baseball data into actionable insights.

This position emphasizes innovation in modeling, experimentation, and analytical rigor. The ideal candidate thrives in research-driven environments, pushing the boundaries of predictive modeling, simulation, and multimodal data analysis to improve player evaluation, player development, and performance analysis.

THE DAY-TO-DAY:

Machine Learning & Advanced Modeling

• Develop and evaluate machine learning and statistical models for player evaluation and performance analysis
• Design and implement time-series, probabilistic, and simulation-based models
• Apply modern deep learning techniques (e.g., attention models, multimodal learning)
• Explore and apply generative modeling approaches beyond LLMs

Analytics Innovation

• Conduct research into new modeling techniques and analytical frameworks
• Prototype and experiment with novel approaches to improve predictive performance
• Translate complex datasets (tracking, video, sensor data) into structured insights

Research & Thought Leadership

• Stay current with advancements in AI, machine learning, and sports analytics
• Serve as a subject matter expert on modeling approaches and statistical methods
• Partner with stakeholders to identify high-impact analytical opportunities

WHAT YOU’LL BRING:

• Strong experience with machine learning frameworks (PyTorch, TensorFlow, etc.)
• Deep understanding of statistical modeling and data science workflows
• Experience working with complex and high-dimensional datasets
• Proficiency in Python, SQL, and version control

WHAT SETS YOU APART:

• 5+ years in machine learning, data science, or applied research
• Experience with multimodal data (video, tracking, sensor data)
• Background in sports analytics, preferably baseball
• Experience with simulation or probabilistic modeling frameworks

TOTAL REWARDS:

• On-site parking
• Transit benefits
• Paid time off: Personal, Sick, Vacation Time, Office Holidays & Winter Break
• Flexible work arrangement 
• Casual work attire environment 
• Complimentary Meal & beverage plan
• Cubs home game & spring training game ticket allotment
• Access to campus wide Wrigley Field events & pre-sales
• 401K Plan Employee Contribution & Employer Match  
• Benefit Plans: Medical, Dental, Vision & Life Insurance 
• Health & Wellness engagement & programming
• Variety of associate special events, volunteer opportunities and partnership discounts
• Tuition Reimbursement
• Free access to EV charging stations

* This job posting includes the anticipated compensation, which reflects the hourly rate or salary range the Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are considering for this role in the specified location(s) as of the posting date. Where anticipated compensation is a salary range, the actual base salary offered within that range will be reflective of the candidate’s skills and experience.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates embrace diversity and are committed to building a team that represents all communities. We hold ourselves accountable to include new and different voices in our organization. Everyone is welcome here, and we celebrate what makes each of us unique.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications we receive, we unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, we can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, we keep all resumes on file and will contact you should we wish to schedule an interview with you.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are an Equal Opportunity Employer committed to inclusion and employing a diverse workforce. All applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, veteran status, disability, or other legally protected characteristics.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

Previously one of the most durable pitchers of the 2020s, José Berríos was absent last year when the Toronto Blue Jays missed out on a World Series championship by a single base. Berríos was first demoted to the bullpen in late September after a string of uninspiring starts, and then was left off the playoff roster due to elbow inflammation. Three mediocre spring starts and an ugly rehab stint in the minors later, Berríos underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery this week, cutting short his 2026 season before it ever really began, and almost certainly costing him a decent chunk of 2027 as well. If the Jays aren’t furrowing their brows at their fourth and fifth starters yet, it may be time to start.

The Jays had been at least cautiously optimistic about Berríos entering the season. He said he felt back to 100% this spring, and new inflammation was only discovered when he underwent an MRI for insurance purposes as he attempted to play for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Neither Berríos nor manager John Schneider seemed the least bit worried, at least publicly:

“It’s weird. The MRI is seeing something, and what I feel is way different,” Berríos said. “The MRI says I have inflammation, so we need to take care of that.

“He feels great, and I can’t overstate that. He feels great,” Schneider said. “He’s going to continue to play catch until we get a bit more info, but he’s not going to start today. It’s a unique situation right now with an MRI and the WBC insurance.”

But since pitchers are cursed by the Fates to near-Odysseus levels, things naturally unraveled from there. Berríos consulted with Dr. Keith Meister in mid-March, and was diagnosed with a stress fracture that caused him to miss the start of the season. After four rehab starts in the minors, Berríos reported additional elbow soreness, which led to surgery to address the fracture and remove loose bodies. Apparently, those bodies were pretty darn loose, and Berríos had the full reconstructive Tommy John surgery, definitely erasing him from the team’s short-term plans.

Toronto’s rotation has actually been quite good overall in 2026 so far, thanks to the trio of Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Trey Yesavage all likely pitching as well as they ever will. In terms of their best three starters, the Jays have been absolutely elite so far:

The Jays rank third in the majors in WAR from their best three starting pitchers, and that’s with Yesavage missing the first month of the season with a shoulder impingement. Outside of their top three starters, however, the Jays have been among the bottom of the league:

The good news is that the performance of a team’s top three starters becomes extremely important when we’re talking postseason baseball, given that that trio tends to get a much larger proportion of the team’s innings than it does during the regular season. The projections reflect this, and despite a rest-of-season projected roster winning percentage of only .521, ZiPS has the Jays at a .543 roster strength for a possible playoff run.

Of course, to get to October, the Jays first have to survive May through September, and that’s a bit trickier. The AL East crown looks like a tough get, with Toronto 11 games back as of Friday morning. The team has a lot of pitchers theoretically available, but they’re now mostly injured, which is why Berríos coming back healthy was so important. A healthy Berríos is probably best classified as a no. 3 starter at this point, but eating innings has a lot of value on a team like this, and only three pitchers, Aaron Nola and teammates Gausman and Patrick Corbin, have thrown more innings over the last decade. Among the alternatives, Bowden Francis and Cody Ponce are both out for the 2026 season, and while Max Scherzer is nearing a return, he looks like he’s running on fumes at this point in his Hall of Fame career. Shane Bieber is nearing a return as well, but betting on him staying healthy is a pretty gutsy dice roll. Spencer Miles is fascinating, but he has all of three professional starts and an even scarier injury history than Bieber. When Corbin is likely in your rotation for the foreseeable future, you know there are depth issues to be concerned about.

That’s why when the Marlins inevitably start shopping Sandy Alcantara around again, the Blue Jays ought to be all-in on him. This is a roster designed to win now, and if you’re going to move on from Bo Bichette and go with an Andrés Giménez/Ernie Clement middle infield, you might as well take advantage of it with a sinkerballer who doesn’t whiff that many guys. ZiPS projects the Jays to get a bigger boost from acquiring Alcantara than any of the other 28 possible suitors. And Gausman is a free agent after the season, so acquiring a pitcher who can be written into the 2027 rotation wouldn’t be a bad idea even under happier circumstances.

The Blue Jays didn’t need Berríos to be what he was with the Twins — a boring, sturdy, and available version would do — but they did need him, and that is why losing him hurts. They’re a dangerous team if they make it to October, but to get there, some additional tinkering with the rotation looks increasingly necessary.