My day-of mock goes through the first Competitive Balance Round, and includes a name for Houston’s first pick of the draft at 72. My first mock draft can be found here; my other Draft Week mock is in the navigation widget above. As always, full reports for the 2020 class can be found on The Board.

1. Detroit Tigers- Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

2. Baltimore Orioles- Austin Martin, CF, Vanderbilt
As discussed in my previous mock, there’s still a chance Baltimore cuts a deal here. The pool of names if they do is Heston Kjerstad, Patrick Bailey (who seems the most likely of these players to slip to a place where cutting a deal for $4.5-ish million here makes sense), and Nick Gonzales.

3. Miami Marlins- Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

4. Kansas City Royals- Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS (FL)
There’s late movement here, including the sudden inclusion of Emerson Hancock, but I think a bat is more likely. Veen and Gonzales are possibilities. The Royals also explored going under slot with Kjerstad, which would make them the stopping point for a lot of seemingly falling players (many of whom are advised by Scott Boras) in the comp round and Round 2.

5. Toronto Blue Jays- Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

6. Seattle Mariners- Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

7. Pittsburgh Pirates- Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
Pittsburgh could try to cut a deal with Bailey. I’ve also heard high school righty Mick Abel mentioned here but think those chances are remote.

8. San Diego Padres- Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN)

9. Colorado Rockies – Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA)
Sounds like Soderstrom would be under slot, which, as with KC, makes sense for the Rockies because they have several early picks. Kjerstad and Reid Detmers are also possible here.

10. Los Angeles Angels- Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
I’ve heard Ed Howard’s name here but think college players are more likely and that any of these are good value: Bailey, Kjerstad, Justin Foscue, and Detmers. I’ve also heard Cade Cavalli is in the mix, but his track record is shorter than the other guys’.

11. Chicago White Sox- Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
If Bailey doesn’t go before this, I think he’s in the mix. The same goes for Abel.

12. Cincinnati Reds- Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas
In order of what I think is likely: Hassell if for some reason he’s here, then Kjerstad, then Abel.

13. San Francisco Giants – Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
I wonder if they’d consider Bailey here since he and Foscue are similar: younger up-the-middle college players who performed on paper.

14. Texas Rangers – Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina
Sabato has homes all over the teens.

15. Philadelphia Phillies – Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

16. Chicago Cubs – Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
As the draft approaches, Bailey is the one college hitter who appears to be slipping down the board, and I think a team with a track record of drafting safe college players will just take him. I also have the Cubs attached to Alika Williams, though I’m not sure if they’d cut for him here or if that’d be in Round 2.

17. Boston Red Sox – Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR)
It sounds like even though Boston doesn’t have a second rounder, they’re looking to take advantage of teams generally avoiding high school players and might cut a deal here to scoop some of them up later. A hot rumor here is that Arizona high school shortstop Carson Tucker or righty Tanner Witt might go underslot here to facilitate that. I think that’s a contingency plan for if Abel is gone.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks – Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis’ stuff works much like Zac Gallen’s, and a host of other pitchers the D-backs have either drafted or traded for.

19. New York Mets – Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS (PA)
The Mets moved on older, falling high schoolers last year and were willing to alter draft strategy to do so, which they might again.

20. Milwaukee Brewers – Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

21. St. Louis Cardinals- Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East (PA)
I think St. Louis is doing work on high schoolers who might fall here: Pete Crow-Armstong, Abel, Ed Howard and Bitsko. They have later comp picks that give them flexibility to go over slot here if they need to, which they probably would for Bitsko. If his number is near $4 million, then he probably slides to the comp round.

22. Washington Nationals- Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
Any of the falling Boras guys make sense here (Hendrick, maybe even Tanner Burns) based on Washington’s history of taking them.

23. Cleveland Indians- Peter Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
I think Jordan Walker is in Cleveland and everyone else’s mix from here on and if Cleveland wants him, the team probably need to do it here.

24. Tampa Bay Rays- Ed Howard, SS Mount Carmel HS (IL)
The Rays have the picks to diversify their group and typically incorporate some upside-oriented players.

25. Atlanta Braves- Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Atlanta puts a premium on defensive fit and Loftin plays short and is model-friendly.

26. Oakland A’s- Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
If Beeter throws strikes like he did (very suddenly) this spring, then he could help Oakland’s bullpen this year, and I think they have strong incentive.

27. Minnesota Twins- Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA)
Walker’s power and age make him model-friendly, and that’s a fit with Minnesota.

28. New York Yankees – Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
I have them on college pitching. Beeter if he’s here, maybe Bobby Miller.

29. Los Angeles Dodgers- Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal HS (TX)

30. Baltimore Orioles- Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK)
Baltimore has the pool space to try to move Bitsko here (the bonus number would have to be big enough to scare away St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and maybe Cleveland) and it fits with what Mike Elias did while in Houston. If Bitsko gets popped before this (as in my mock) then Fulton becomes the favorite.

31. Pittsburgh Pirates- Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
I expect Pirates decision-makers saw Miller shove when they were in to see Detmers this spring.

32. Kansas City Royals- Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX)
If KC likes a lot of the college arms left on the board, I think they take a falling high schooler knowing a college guy they like will be there at 41.

33. Arizona Diamondbacks- Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M (
I think they’d take Howard if he’s here. Roa is here for the same reason I mocked Jarvis to the D-backs earlier: fastball traits Arizona clearly likes. I think Jordan Westburg is also a possibility here.

34. San Diego Padres – Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
I have SD on college arms here.

35. Colorado Rockies – Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State

36. Cleveland Indians- Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State
Cleveland loves contact-oriented middle infielders and Alika is in this range for many analytically-inclined teams. Walker is possible if he’s here.

37. Tampa Bay Rays – Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
Alika seems in play here, too, if available.

…

72. Houston Astros – Elijah Cabell, OF, Florida State
Houston loves measurable power and Cabell has among the most in the entire draft.

On Monday, the owners presented their second economic proposal to the Major League Baseball Players Association, offering to pay players 50% of their pro-rated salaries from the March agreement for 76 regular season games, and 75% of their pro-rated salaries over 76 games if they played the postseason. That proposal was similar to the previous one the owners had made, shifting around roughly the same amount of money and ultimately offering the players less in guaranteed salary. While the players waited eight days for that proposal, it took them just a single day to respond with Jeff Passan first reporting the MLBPA’s response last night.

The players’ proposal includes an 89-game season beginning July 10 and lasting through October 11, a 94-day period. Players would receive full pro-rated pay for those games. The proposal includes expanded playoffs in both 2020 and 2021, and a player bonus pool of $50 million for the playoffs if there are no fans. Players who are considered high-risk for complications related to the coronavirus or who live with someone considered high-risk could opt-out of the season and receive service time and salary, though others who opt out would receive neither. In analyzing this deal, we have several different comparisons to make when it comes to other offers or potential proposals.

The Players’ Prior Offer

The previous offer made by the players included a 114-game season ending at the end of October, expanded playoffs in 2020 and 2021, a provision allowing high-risk individuals and those living with high-risk individuals to opt-out and receive service time and salary, and all other players to opt out and receive service time. The new proposal addresses some significant issues raised by the owners. Owners want to pay players less. Moving to 89 games decreases player pay by roughly $630 million. Owners have expressed concern about playing late into the year. Ending the season on October 11 moves up the end of the regular season by three weeks. Owners want expanded playoffs; that bargaining chip was kept in the recent offer. Owners didn’t want all players to be able to opt out and accrue service time (service time was a huge issue when the sides negotiated the March agreement), and the union response acceded to those wishes. That doesn’t mean the offer is palatable to the owners, however. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.

MLBPA Proposes 89-game Season With Full Prorated Salaries, Expanded Playoffs For Two Years

The Major League Baseball Players Association has submitted to ownership a proposal that includes an 89-game 2020 season at the full prorated salaries the two sides agreed to in March, according to multiple reports.

The players’ intended regular season would begin on July 10 and finish on October 11, followed by an expanded playoff field that includes 16 teams — eight from each league — instead of the usual 10. That expanded playoff field would also be used in 2021 under the players’ plan. Tuesday’s proposal also mentions the players providing “broadcast enhancements” throughout the year including in the playoffs, which would seem to include things like wearing microphones on the field during play. Finally, the proposal includes opt-out rights for all players that would allow any player to forgo the season while also forfeiting the year of salary and service time. Players designated as high-risk due to conditions with COVID-19 comorbidity however, or those co-habitating with a high-risk person, could opt out without losing any salary or service time.

Previously, the players had offered a 117-game season with full prorated salaries, along with similar modifications made to the next two postseasons. MLB countered on Monday with a 76-game season that would pay players just 50-75% of their prorated salary. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball’s most famous unsigned draftee is arguably J.D. Drew, who along with superagent Scott Boras, waged a summer-long battle against the Phillies and the MLB draft itself back in 1997. I’d describe that conflict as a draw, for while Drew didn’t win freedom and earned the eternal enmity of Phillies fans, he did get the signing bonus he wanted the following year with the Cardinals.

There are a lot of reasons a player can go unsigned. Sometimes it’s simply a matter of money. Players at the bottom of the pecking order, without a significant signing bonus, have to figure out how to subsist for years on a paltry minor league salary just to take the long shot at having a major league career. Sometimes they just don’t want to play for the team that drafted them. Players with family connections to a team are sometimes drafted in late rounds as a courtesy even though the org knows they won’t sign. Other times, players are hoping for a better draft position in a future year or want to honor a promise they made to their college program, either out of a desire to play ball there or take advantage of getting an education.

From J.D. Drew to Aron Amundson, baseball’s only 100th round pick ever, the stories of why a player doesn’t sign can vary. Thousands of players have gone unsigned only to eventually resurface and end up playing in the major leagues anyway. In 2,584 cases covering 1,983 different players, a draft pick has gone unsigned and later made it to the majors. 439 players didn’t sign at least twice, with the record for a future major leaguer being Luis Medina of the Cleveland Indians. Medina remained unsigned his first five times (MLB had a January draft at the time), getting drafted as high as eighth overall on his fifth refusal. Medina eventually signed the sixth time he was drafted, in the ninth round, his lowest draft position since the first time he was selected.

In the early 1990s, baseball’s owners attempted to short-circuit the whole concept of negotiating with amateurs — not for the last time — by increasing the number of years a team retained control of a player’s rights from one year to five. The players objected and it was ruled in arbitration that owners had to negotiate draft changes with the Major League Baseball Players Association. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago Cubs. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Younger High-Variance Types
Yonathan Perlaza, INF
Danis Correa, RHP
Francisco Fermin, RHP
Davidjohn Herz, LHP
Josue Huma, INF
Flemin Bautista, INF

Except for Perlaza, all of these players are under 21. Perlaza is a gamer with some feel for contact but no power. He might hit enough to be a valuable utility man. I’ve seen Correa up to 97 but he didn’t pitch last year and has been hurt a lot. Fermin sits 88-91 but he has a prototypical frame and his curveball has good shape. He’s a 45 athlete. Herz is a slinging lefty who looked relief-only last summer. Huma and Bautista are low-level performers without a lot of physical projection.

Older Depth Players
Justin Steele, LHP
CD Pelham, LHP
Robel Garcia, 2B
Craig Brooks, RHP
Brendon Little, LHP

Steele was in the main section of this list at the onset because he’s a lefty with a good breaking ball, but his combination of injuries and the reports coming out of this spring made me want to slide him down here. Pelham was an upper-90s/slider relief prospect at peak but had an erratic and injury-marred 2019 and also got hit around in February. Garcia has power and plays an okay second base but I have a 30 on his bat. Brooks’ fastball — 92-96 with plus spin — garnered an 18% swinging strike rate last year. Little was 90-93 rehabbing in the AZL last year.

Recent College Draftees
Chris Clarke, RHP
Adam Laskey, LHP
Brad Deppermann, RHP
John Pomeroy, RHP
Ethan Roberts, RHP

Clarke has a plus curveball and was up to 95 last summer. Laskey is a four-pitch lefty with average stuff who was hurt all of 2019. Deppermann was up to 97 after last year’s draft. He’s 23 and 2020 was going to be a big developmental year for him. Pomeroy has been throwing hard since college, up to 98, but has 30 control. Roberts sits 91 but has elite fastball and curveball spin.

Bench Ceilings
D.J. Artis, OF
Andy Weber, 2B
Edmond Americaan, CF
Delvin Zinn, SS

Artis could be a contact-oriented fourth outfielder. Weber is a viable defensive middle infielder with a 45 bat and power. Americaan is 23 and behind the developmental curve, but he has plus speed and is really physical. Zinn is an above-average athlete with a bunch of 40 and 50 tools; his development has been slowed by the presence of other infielders in the system.

System Overview

The Cubs’ recent track record of drafting and developing pitching is bad and the org has made a concerted effort to build new facilities and bring in new personnel to address that fact. Brailyn Marquez’s delivery was sequenced better last year, the earliest and loudest sign that things might be improving on the dev side. Hoerner and Davis made significant and impactful swing changes after signing, evidence the hitting side of the dev group is also driving positive change.

After a run of monochromatic drafts full of college pitching, Chicago has used mid-round picks on projectable high schoolers, and both Roederer (who I was probably low on before his draft) and Davis’ stocks are up since they were acquired.

We haven’t seen what the pro department’s tendencies are because the club has been in buy mode for a while now, but we might soon learn a lot if the team seeks to rebuild.

Every year in the draft, teams select ultra-talented baseball cyborgs who look like movie stars and project as potential future big league stars. Some of them even have sweet names — Spencer Torkelson sounds like a mid-career Arnold Schwarzenegger role, a screwup with a heart and biceps of gold. These draft picks are the way bad teams get good, the core building blocks of future juggernauts.

Every year until now in the draft, teams made many more picks. Some of them turn into legends. Some of them are major contributors right now. Most of them don’t pan out. There’s a fourth category here as well. Some of these late-round draft picks have short but non-zero major league careers.

Matt Adams, the example my mind first heads to in this category, was a 23rd round draft pick. He won’t make the Hall of Fame. He won’t make an All-Star game. He’s also accumulated 5 WAR in the big leagues already. In a league where 5 WAR on the free agent market will run you upwards of $30 million dollars, that’s a heck of a find.

I can’t tell you who the next Matt Adams is. If there was a draft-eligible player who was likely to have his career, he wouldn’t go in the 23rd round, or be signed as an undrafted free agent this year. Some team would snap him up. Instead, today I’m throwing darts. I hope to find a few position players who might be overlooked in a five round draft but who might hit enough, in some cases relative to their position, to make an impact in the major leagues at some point in their careers.

Of note, I do mean “hit enough.” I looked for these players in the statistical record, combing over college numbers looking for performers at smaller schools or ones who were overlooked for myriad other reasons. I have no doubt that there are pitchers who fit the bill here as well, but I can’t easily access velocity and spin rate data, something any team looking at these players could likely find either from old Perfect Game performances or from scouting. Given that, we’ll stick to college bats.

I’m going to highlight eight hitters. All eight might amount to nothing in the majors. Heck, that might even be the most likely answer. But they’re all doing something interesting, something that gives them a chance to stand out from the pack. They all have warts, too, of course; again, most of these players will go undrafted in this year’s abbreviated setup. And I’m not claiming to have scouting insight on these guys; I’m surveilling from a distance and guessing. These aren’t major league locks, and heck, I might be completely off. But here are a few names you might be excited to see your team sign after the draft. Read the rest of this entry »

On the heels of another weak offer by team owners, it’s worth re-examining their claims of losses on a per game basis in the regular season. While most of the discussions about MLB’s gains and losses in 2020 have been on a more global scale, individual teams are going to have vastly different financial outlooks this season. Those outlooks could be shaping the negotiations among the owners as they continue to present proposals to the players that try to satisfy all the owners at once.

It’s possible you’ve heard the claim that owners will lose $640,000 on every regular season game played. While there are a lot of issues with that claim given that national television money as well as other revenue from MLB’s central office like MLB.TV is not included, we can use the data from that assertion as a starting point in examining MLB’s finances. MLB’s claim of losses comes from taking a pro-rated share of local television money and then subtracting player pay based on the March agreement that dictated pro-rated pay. Then, around $55,000 is added per game for other revenue minus the cost to put on a game. For the television estimates, I used the data from this piece, added the MLB average for Toronto, and then made a 2% adjustment based on the figures in this Jeff Passan piece. That same piece also provided the salary rate of $1,674,800 per game. Based solely on that data, here’s the team-by-team look at gains and losses per game:

Read the rest of this entry »

2:02	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat! Apologies for not being able to fill this slot last week — the protests in Brooklyn left us without our usual dose of child care from my saintly mother-in-law, because travel from New Jersey was untenable.

2:04

Jay Jaffe: A bit of housekeeping: I’ve got a two-part deep dive into MLB amateur draft history, illustrating the best picks from later rounds by WAR. Many thanks to Ben Clemens for the database help that made such a series possible; I had some fun putting it together.  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/beyond-round-5-the-best-later-round-dr… https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/beyond-round-5-the-best-later-round-dr…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Regarding the draft: I’m really no expert, so I won’t have answers to most questions regarding who will go tomorrow — those questions are best left to Eric Longenhagen.

2:06	Jay Jaffe: The entirety of what I know about this year’s draft is that Torkelson was my cousin’s neighbor in Petaluma, California and so therefore should be taken first, because my cousin was super-generous with passing me his 1966-75 baseball card collection when I was younger.

Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Canterino was drafted out of Rice University a year ago this week. The now 22-year-old right-hander was selected in the second round by the Minnesota Twins, and soon thereafter signed his first professional contract. As is the case for every young player who gets to live that dream, it was an experience he won’t soon forget.

His subsequent introduction to pro ball centered more on education than on innings. Canterino took the mound just seven times, tossing 25 stellar frames — 31 strikeouts and eight hits allowed — between the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and the Low-A Midwest League. Most notably, he became acquainted with technology that showed him not only how his arsenal plays, but how his four-pitch mix can be optimized.

Canterino — No. 13 on our Twins Top Prospects list — discussed his draft experience, and his first-year education, over the phone from his home in Texas.

———

David Laurila: What was draft day like for you?

Matt Canterino: “It was more exciting than anything. I had a decent idea of where I’d be going — obviously nothing was set in stone — so to see that all come together once things got rolling into where I was projected to go… it was pretty surreal. It was also a dream come true. I feel like I’m still living a dream.”

Laurila: Did you go where you expected?

Canterino: “Yes. My agent gave me a range, and I pretty much fell right in the middle of it. Those were the expectations I went in with, and once that range started coming around, I realized there might be kind of a crunch time. But it happened really quick for me. There wasn’t much banter. It was a couple of teams, then one team, and all of a sudden I was drafted.”

Laurila: When did you start tuning in to the draft coverage? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s draft week, even in the fictional world of OOTP. The Brewers have drafted, so now it’s time to work out a negotiation strategy with the draftees. That, roster shenanigans, and more on today’s FanGraphs Live!
Read the rest of this entry »