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Back before the Korean Baseball Organization’s Opening Day, I altered the methodology ZiPS uses to project Major League Baseball standings to do the same for the KBO’s 144-game season, as it was nearly the only game in town for viewers in the United States. Because projections aren’t written in stone, and are constantly in flux as actual on-field performance eviscerates old projections, I also update the ZiPS’ in-season methodology. After all, ZiPS is a large set of algorithms, not a time machine; the future never exactly matches the prognostications.

One interesting note is that offense has shot way up in the KBO in 2020. After dejuicing the baseballs for 2019, the league’s ERA dropped from 5.17 in 2018 to 4.17 last year. Nearly a third of the way through this season, that ERA is back up to 4.80, almost entirely due to a bit of a re-explosion of home runs. As far as I know, they haven’t re-juiced the baseball, so it will be interesting to see if this keeps up, and if so, do we see similar results in Nippon Professional Baseball or MLB, possibly as a result of pitchers having less time to prepare for the season?

But enough of that; let’s get to the updated projections.

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In the simulated reality of Out Of The Park Baseball, the season is chugging along normally. There’s no virus keeping stadium doors closed, no season schedule to work out. In fact, while in real life baseball is at a point of extreme uncertainty, the OOTP season is currently in a lull. It’s late June — too early for the All-Star Game or the trade deadline, too late for the new-car smell of April and May performances. In keeping with that between-events ambience, today I’m going to cover a few topics I find interesting but that aren’t of crucial, immediate import to the team.

Keston Hiura Signs

Well, I did say immediate import. The best thing that has happened to the Brewers so far this year is that we’re in first place in late June. Not far behind, however, is the extension Keston Hiura signed on Saturday after we decided to offer him a deal last week. OOTP contracts can look alien, because the game’s contract logic is governed by its own set of rules rather than the ones that major league teams adhere to, but this contract looks both like a real-world deal and an excellent one for the team:

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Following a flurry of activity last week between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association as the two sides volleyed to resume the 2020 season, this past weekend was marked by inactivity. After an in-person meeting between Rob Manfred and Tony Clark spurred an owners’ proposal for 60 games on Wednesday and a 70-game counter-offer from the players on Thursday, the owners opted to wait the players out. While they were waiting, the schedule for a potential season got a little bit shorter, and positive coronavirus tests for five players and three staff members in Phillies camp forced some re-evaluation of the viability of Florida as a training site ahead of the upcoming season. With other positive tests popping up around the sport, all of the spring training complexes were temporarily closed for deep cleaning, and to establish new, more stringent safety protocols; in all, 40 players and staff have tested positive for the virus over the last week. Even with that news, the players were expected to formally vote on the owners’ 60-game proposal on Sunday, but a last-minute modification by Rob Manfred pushed the vote back.

In an email obtained by the Associated Press, Rob Manfred indicated to Tony Clark on Sunday that the season would not be able to begin on the July 19 date previously proposed by both sides, pushing the start of the season back to July 26:

“I really believe we are fighting over an impossibility on games,” Manfred said in the email, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press. “The earliest we will be ready for players to report is a week from Monday, given the need to relocate teams from Florida. That leaves 66 days to play 60 games. Realistically, that is the outside of the envelope now.”

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When I first wrote about José De León — this in a May 2015 Sunday Notes column — he was a 22-year-old prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. He was also a shooting star. Piggy-backing on an emergent 2014 season, De León was dominating the hitter-friendly California League to the tune of a 1.69 ERA, and 50 strikeouts in 32 innings. His heater was a crisp and clean 94-96 mph.

Misfortune has followed those halcyon days. De León went on to debut with the Dodgers in September 2016, then was dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays four months later. Shortly thereafter, things began to go haywire. First it was discomfort in his forearm. Then came a lat strain followed by elbow tendinitis. The coup de grâce came in March 2018 when he was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. Out of action until last May, De León took baby steps upon his return. He hurled just 60 innings, four of them at the big-league level, over the course of the campaign.

“The last few years have been rough,” admitted De León, whom the Cincinnati Reds acquired from the Rays over the winter in exchange for a PTBNL. “But I’ve grown a lot. I’m way stronger mentally, and I basically have a brand new arm, as well.”

His “new arm” doesn’t feel foreign to him. The Isabela, Puerto Rico native recalls former Tampa Bay teammates Alex Cobb and Nathan Eovaldi saying that theirs did feel different after surgery, but he hasn’t experienced that sensation. What he has experienced is a velocity rejuvenation. When I talked to him a few days before camps were shut down, De León told me that he’d been 95-96 in his most-recent outing, the firmest his heater had been in years. Moreover, he didn’t recall ever throwing that hard, that early. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley review the latest lack of progress toward starting the MLB season, touching on the false hope offered by a meeting between Rob Manfred and Tony Clark, the subsequent breakdown in talks, a poll about where the public places blame for the standstill, what negotiations without leaks would look like, how the parties will proceed, and more. Then they discuss a series of COVID-19 outbreaks in baseball, the feasibility of a safe season, the importance of mask-wearing, and a Scott Boras quote about taking baseball’s temperature, plus a Stat Blast about the players who played for the most World Series-winning teams without appearing in the World Series, and a warning about top prospects’ proximity to trampolines.

Audio intro: The Sleepy Jackson, "I Understand What You Want But I Just Don’t Agree"
Audio outro: Ezra Furman, "Thermometer"

Link to story on the latest MLB disagreements
Link to The Athletic on the midpoint problem
Link to Eugene Freedman’s post
Link to The Athletic on the backgrounds of MLB owners
Link to The Athletic on COVID outbreaks in baseball
Link to study on the number of prevented infections
Link to study on the effectiveness of mask-wearing
Link to second study on the effectiveness of mask-wearing
Link to Morning Consult poll results
Link to Boras article with Verducci quotes
Link to Mayo Clinic thermometers page
Link to Stat Blast song cover by Kyle Cripps
Link to list of players with most rings without a WS appearance
Link to Wander Franco trampoline post
Link to Idiocracy thermometer scene

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On Wednesday, not long after talks appeared to have stalled, Major League Baseball (MLB) presented a new proposal to the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) to resume the 2020 season. It was a sharp about face by the league, which on Monday had threatened to cancel the season entirely. The parties intended their March Agreement to resolve multiple issues related to the resumption of play following the postponement of the season due to COVID-19. I received a copy of what is likely the final agreement, although it is not the signed version agreed to and executed by the parties. The version I have received is dated March 26, 2020 and identified as a Final Proposal on one party’s letterhead. Two national baseball writers have independently verified to me that it is the final agreement. After reviewing the Agreement, I believe the threat of a grievance over MLB’s violation of the scheduling provision of the Agreement is what spurred these most recent talks.

Rather than summarize the March Agreement and each of its sections, I thought it would be useful to review it from the perspective of how an arbitrator might review the grievance the MLBPA has implied it will file if the commissioner unilaterally sets the schedule. Although it has been represented as a short agreement addressing a only handful of subjects, the March Agreement is actually a comprehensive document with 15 sections and an appendix covering 17 pages. The parties spent a significant effort reaching agreements over a host of things, both modifying and supplementing the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). It’s important to remember that both parties were represented by experienced, competent counsel throughout the negotiations that led to the March Agreement.

Earlier this week, the commissioner said his concern over a grievance might prevent MLB from scheduling a season at all. Manfred told ESPN, “Unfortunately, over the weekend, while Tony Clark was declaring his desire to get back to work, the union’s top lawyer was out telling reporters, players and eventually getting back to owners that as soon as we issued a schedule – as they requested – they intended to file a grievance claiming they were entitled to an additional billion dollars. Obviously, that sort of bad-faith tactic makes it extremely difficult to move forward in these circumstances.”

In relevant part, the CBA provides that a “‘Grievance’ shall mean a complaint which involves the existence or interpretation of, or compliance with, any agreement, or any provision of any agreement, between the Association and the Clubs or any of them, or between a Player and a Club.” Presumably, the Union’s grievance would be over the failure of the commissioner to meet the “best efforts” provision in the section on scheduling the regular season. Read the rest of this entry »

In this week’s MLB The Show 20 stream, featuring Paul Sporer and Dan Szymborski, the Cleveland Indians head to Chicago to kick off a three-game series against the first-place White Sox.

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We’ll always have his epically improbable 2016 home run, but Bartolo Colon ain’t walking through that door. If the players union and the owners can agree to something along the lines of the latest volley of proposals without immolating themselves in fiery rhetoric — now that they’re at 100% pro rata, it shouldn’t be that difficult, yet here we are — then the days of pitchers hitting are likely at an end. Per the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricort, MLB’s most recent proposal includes a universal designated hitter not only for this year, but for 2021, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers report the same is true for the union’s latest proposal. Beyond that, as Haudricourt notes, a universal DH is “almost certainly” going to be included in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that takes effect for the 2022 season. Not that hammering out that CBA will be a simple matter given the bad blood between the owners and the union, but it does appear that whenever they get around to playing again, the National League will finally join every other major circuit except Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in adopting the DH.

The DH has been around since 1973, though its roots go back to the late 19th century. As the role of the pitcher became more important, necessitating they concentrate on improving that aspect of their game, the feeling was that pitchers should be excused from their offensive duties. While movements to adopt a “tenth man” came and went from time to time prior to World War II, it took until the late 1960s, amid declining offenses, for the Triple-A International League and various other minor leagues to begin experimenting. The AL and NL could not agree on whether to adopt the DH; they voted separately, and you know the results. The original plan was that after three years, both leagues would either adopt or discard the rule, but the AL enjoyed the significant bumps in scoring and attendance in the wake of the rule’s adoption, and the two differing brands of baseball were maintained.

That was easy to do so long as there was no interleague play, but the World Series presented an awkward clash. From 1973-75, no DH was used, while from 1976-85, an “Even-Odd” scheme was used, with the DH in the even-numbered years, and since then, the “When in Rome” scheme has been used, with the DH present in AL parks but not NL ones. That scheme was extended to the regular season when interleague play began in 1997. Thus the two brands of baseball have generally coexisted in peace for nearly half a century, albeit not without endless debates contrasting the purity of the game with its need to adapt, as well as the occasional push within the game to move one way or the other. Because the position’s duties tend to be filled by higher-salaried veterans, the Players Association sought the universal DH in negotiations for the 2011 and ’16 CBAs. They didn’t get it either time, but now it’s a useful bargaining chip for the owners to throw into the pot, and notable that the players have maintained it in their counteroffers. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.

Dr. Fauci Skeptical About NFL Season

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci recommended that MLB try to avoid playing games in October, and his scheduling suggestions didn’t stop at baseball. Yesterday, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said that if the NFL wants to have a 2020 season, they’ll need do so in a heavily quarantined environment, similar to that of the NBA at DisneyWorld.

“Unless players are essentially in a bubble — insulated from the community and they are tested nearly every day — it would be very hard to see how football is able to be played this fall,” Fauci said. “If there is a second wave, which is certainly a possibility and which would be complicated by the predictable flu season, football may not happen this year.”

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