The 2020 ZiPS Projections

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December 4, 2019

The 2020 ZiPS projection season starts Friday, and before it does, I wanted to offer a brief refresher of what ZiPS is and is not.

ZiPS is a computer projection system, initially developed by me from 2002-2004, and “officially” released in 2004. As technology and data availability have improved over the last 15 years, ZiPS has continually evolved. The current edition of ZiPS can’t even run on the Pentium 4 3.0 processor I used to develop the original version starting in 2002 (I checked). There are a lot more bells and whistles, but at its core, ZiPS engages in two fundamental tasks when making a projection: establishing a baseline for a player, and estimating what their future looks like using that baseline.

ZiPS uses multi-year statistics, with more recent seasons weighted more heavily; in the beginning, all the statistics received the same yearly weighting, but eventually, this became more varied based on additional research. Research is a big part of ZiPS and every year, I run literally hundreds of studies on various aspects of the system to determine their predictive value and better calibrate the player baselines. What started with the data available in 2002 has expanded considerably; basic hit, velocity, and pitch data began playing a larger role starting in 2013, and data derived from StatCast has been included in recent years as I got a handle on the predictive value and impact of those numbers on existing models. I believe in cautious, conservative design, so data is only included once I have confidence in improved accuracy; there are always builds of ZiPS that are still a couple of years away. Additional internal ZiPS tools like zBABIP, zHR, zBB, and zSO are used to better establish baseline expectations for players. These stats work similarly to the various flavors of “x” stats, with the z standing for something I’d wager you’ve already figured out!

When estimating a player’s future production, ZiPS compares their baseline performance, both in quality and shape, to the baseline of every player in its database at every point in their career. This database consists of every major leaguer since the Deadball era — the game was so different prior to then that I’ve found pre-Deadball comps make projections less accurate — and every minor league translation since what is now the late 1960s. Using cluster analysis techniques (Mahalanobis distance is one of my favorite tools), ZiPS assembles a cohort of fairly similar players across history for player comparisons, something you see in the most similar comps list. Non-statistical factors include age, position, handedness, and, to a lesser extent, height and weight compared to the average height and weight of the era (unfortunately, this data is not very good). ZiPS then generates a probable aging curve — both midpoint projections and range — on the fly for each player. Read the rest of this entry »


A 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot of Your Own — and a Schedule of Profiles

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December 4, 2019
2020 BBWAA Ballot

Between a very interesting Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot and Thanksgiving travel (which in my case took a turn for the worse), it’s taken me longer than usual to shift into high gear with my JAWS-flavored profiles of the 32 candidates on the BBWAA’s 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. While the navigation bar atop each profile can guide you to the series’ installments thus far, it’s worth laying out a tentative schedule as well as providing a clearinghouse for a bit of business, including the reprise of a very cool feature our developer, Sean Dolinar, helped us pull off last year.

In the spirit of our annual free agent contract crowdsourcing, FanGraphs invites registered users to fill out their own virtual Hall of Fame ballots. You must be signed in to vote, and you may only vote once. To replicate the actual voting process, you may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players; ballots with more than 10 won’t be counted. You may change your ballot until the deadline, which is December 31, 2019, the same as that of the actual BBWAA voters, who have to schlep their paper ballot to the mailbox.

The ballot is here and contains all 32 candidates (sorry, no write-ins for those fixated on Pete Rose). We’ve got tables of career stats for hitters and pitchers, if that helps, as well as a checkbox that allows you to see the stats of those already enshrined. As with last year, I’ll write up the crowdsourcing results sometime in early January, when we’re all jonesing for Hall news in advance of the announcement of the official results on January 21. Read the rest of this entry »


Money to Spend: What’s the Likely State of Team Payrolls in 2020?

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December 4, 2019

How much major league teams are willing to spend on player salaries in any given year can be a bit murky. Teams don’t want to show their hand and lose negotiating power with free agents, though we can usually figure out their number by the end of spring when the money has been spent. How much every team is likely to spend is more opaque. We know that, generally speaking, teams are making boatloads, but while the revenue across the sport has increased over the last few years, it hasn’t resulted in increased payrolls. Every team has lots of money — the budget constraints we hear front office types reference are, more often than not, self-imposed rather than the result of empty coffers — but some will spend more than others. Trying to pin down what teams will spend in 2020 at this point in the winter is difficult, but we can use last year’s payroll numbers as a guide to get a rough idea of what each is likely to do, and thus gauge which ones will commit to payroll increases and which are likely to embrace thrift.

To answer those questions, we can look to the contracts coming off the books at the end of 2019, but that number can be misleading. Raises to players with long-term contracts, as well as increased pay in arbitration can bite into some of the departed money. Let’s start with how much money every team has committed for 2020 as of right now, using estimates for arbitration figures and minimum salaried players. (All the data can be found in the Payroll section on our RosterResource pages.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Indians Baseball Operations Developer Positions

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December 4, 2019

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Front End Developer, Baseball Operations

Location: Cleveland, Ohio

Primary Purpose:
The Front End Developer will focus on building applications and systems to support Cleveland’s players, coaches, and front office. The position will collaborate with Baseball Operations personnel, along with colleagues and peers in Information Systems, to rapidly deliver working software, from ideation to delivery, break/fix, and everything in between.

This role will report to the Manager, Front End Development in Cleveland’s Information Systems department.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

Design and Development of Baseball Systems

  • Work closely with Baseball Operations and Information Systems departments to design, develop, and improve new and existing baseball applications
  • Create tests and documentation for bug fixes and new application features/functions
  • Design and develop dashboards and various analytical tools to directly support front office and field personnel
  • Ensure technical feasibility of user interface and user experience designs
  • Build and/or support mobile-friendly user interfaces and experiences
  • Build and/or support web services and business-layer applications that speak to both back end databases and front–end interfaces
  • Collaborate with other teammates and stakeholders

Support of Baseball Systems

  • Provide development support and guidance to Baseball Operations power users and general support to all Baseball Ops front-office and field personnel, as needed
  • Examine and where appropriate, prototype new technologies in the pursuit of creating competitive advantages through software, applications and tools; considers future requirements and possibilities
  • Work closely with Data Architects and Infrastructure/Operations resources on the Information Systems team to ensure secure, scalable and high-performing applications

Education and Experience Requirements:

  • Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or a related field is preferred
  • At least 3 years of experience in software development in a web-based development environment
  • Experience in consuming Service Oriented Architectures is preferred
  • Knowledge of Web Development languages/standards, including Javascript, HTML5, and responsive design Use of Open Source JavaScript libraries such as JQuery and Vue
  • Experience with Tableau a plus Experience with Node.js a plus
  • Experience working with baseball data or delivering sports analysis tools and/or applications is a plus
  • Extensive general knowledge and experience with computer system hardware, networks, operating systems and business applications software
  • Knowledge of Microsoft SQL server database design, programming and access methods is a plus

Job Requirements:

  • Excellent analytical and problem-solving skills
  • Highly self-motivated
  • Ability to work extended hours and weekends as necessary.

Standard Requirements:

  • Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

Position: Back End Developer, Baseball Operations

Location: Cleveland, Ohio

Primary Purpose:
To design, implement, manage, and troubleshoot the Baseball Department’s information architecture, and to expose that data to UI developers through a web service layer or direct SQL. The Back-End Developer will partner with the Baseball Analytics and Software Development teams to maintain data infrastructure, support needs, implement solutions, and drive innovation in baseball’s data-driven decision process. Key functions will include data modeling, integration, warehousing, and consumption, as well as the development and maintenance of web services in C# that expose data through REST web services.

This role will report to Manager, Back End Development in Cleveland’s Information Systems department.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities:

Work with the baseball department and software development team to design, develop, test and deploy new functionality, applications, and systems.

Data Consumption

  • Support data and reporting requirements for a variety of applications, analysts, and end-users in all departments.
  • Provide technical and strategic advice of the management in the creation and implementation of new data standards, databases, products, and vendors.

Data Integration

  • Create and support ETL (extract, transform, load) data integration processes.
  • Understand the format, definitions, limitations, and content of external and internal data feeds.
  • Reconcile differences across data sources and consolidate into a single master repository.
  • Develop processes ensuring data standards, security, stewardship, lineage, and metadata management.
  • Spearhead efforts to identify, obtain and integrate new data sources useful for decision-making

Data Modeling

  • Understand and document existing database structures, historical design decisions, business rules, and future requirements.
  • Develop and document a comprehensive information model that describes the data and maps the workflow that transform and manipulates it into usable information.
  • Ensure “single version of the truth” consistency across applications and reports.

Data Warehousing

  • Manage a data warehouse to support reporting and analytics.
  • Assist end users in extracting data for their purposes

Web Services Development

  • Creating and supporting REST-based web services to expose data to various UI layers (web, desktop, mobile app).

Education & Experience Requirements:

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Information Systems, Computer Engineering or related field.
  • At least 3 years of experience in software development or in a similar role
  • Experience with business intelligence, data warehousing, OLAP, and/or data integration.
  • Experience with data modeling.
  • Thorough knowledge of design and integration principles for complex, heterogeneous databases
  • Advanced knowledge in query development, including SQL, MDX, and stored procedures.
  • Experience with ETL and BI reporting tools (e.g. Microsoft SSIS & SSRS, Tableau).
  • Experience using JSON formatted data.
  • Experience in C# or other .NET language.
  • Knowledgeable about software development best practices and long-term maintainability of code
  • Familiarity with baseball data and sabermetrics strongly desirable.
  • Experience supporting or using statistical and/or data-mining applications is desirable.
  • Familiarity with any of application development and/or web technologies is a plus.

Standard Requirements:

  • Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
  • Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
  • Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
  • Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
  • Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
  • Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
  • Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
  • Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
  • Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
  • Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Indians.


Job Posting: Cubs Baseball Systems Developer

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December 4, 2019

Position: Developer, Baseball Systems – Research and Development

Location: Chicago, IL

Role Overview:
This role will focus on the development and maintenance of Cubs’ internal baseball information system and all of the data flows that support it. This may include creating web interfaces and web tools for the user interface; building ETL processes; maintaining back-end databases; deploying machine learning models; and troubleshooting data source issues as needed. Successful candidates will also bring strong analytical skills, work ethic and communication skills.

Responsibilities:

  • Assist in the design and implementation of the Baseball Ops information system, creating performant and beautiful user interfaces.
  • Develop and maintain ETL processes for loading, processing and quality-checking new data sources.
  • Identify, diagnose and resolve data quality issues.
  • Assist in design and deployment of machine learning models for active predicting.

Required Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s Degree or above in Computer Science or similar discipline
  • Experience working in a Linux environment
  • Experience building scalable software in a collaborative setting
  • Knowledge of data structures
  • Ability to debug and profile applications, driving towards optimal performance
  • Experience with modern database technologies and SQL
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills
  • Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and sabermetric concepts

Desired Qualifications:
Depending on the candidate, any or all of these skills may be utilized.

  • Experience with JavaScript
  • Experience with Python, especially with machine learning frameworks (PyTorch, TensorFlow, Scikit Learn)
  • Experience with R
  • Experience building web or native applications for mobile devices
  • Experience building and supporting ETL processes

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications they receive, the Cubs unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, they can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, they keep all resumes on file and will contact you should they wish to schedule an interview with you.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are an Equal Opportunity Employer committed to inclusion and employing a diverse workforce. All applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, veteran status, disability, or other legally protected characteristics.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.


Padres Add Profar

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December 3, 2019

Monday evening during a squall of non-tender news, the San Diego Padres continued to sculpt their 40-man roster during what is likely to be a very active offseason, this time swapping power-hitting “catching” prospect Austin Allen and a player to be named for famous non-tender candidate Jurickson Profar in a deal with Oakland.

From a roster construction standpoint, the deal makes an awful lot of sense for both teams. The Padres had four catchers on their 40-man and were suddenly shallow in the middle infield after they traded Luis Urias to Milwaukee last week. Profar wasn’t as productive as he had been the season before, and Oakland has a tight budget imposed by ownership as well as two young and enigmatic-but-talented infielders coming up in Jorge Mateo and Franklin Barreto. The club also needed catching reinforcement behind oft-injured prodigy Sean Murphy.

Profar, who agreed to a one-year, $5.7-million deal with San Diego after the trade, is now the favorite to be the Padres’ everyday second baseman next year. While his surface-level 2019 production (.218/.301/.410) was down from the previous year (.254/.335/.458), his peripherals (9% walk rate, 14% strikeout rate) were identical, he golfed out 20 homers again (mostly left-handed, though Profar is a better hitter from the right side), and he offers some amount of defensive versatility (2B/LF last year, all over the place the year before), though he’s not a great glove anywhere. As Craig Edwards noted on Twitter, Profar had a horrendous April before he righted the ship and was a slightly above-average offensive performer for the rest of the year. Read the rest of this entry »


Five Lessons From the Wild Non-Tender Deadline

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December 3, 2019

The non-tender deadline isn’t a date everyone circles on the calendar expecting big moves and excitement, but it does force teams into decisions on a handful of players and causes some movement as well as a handful of new free agents. Last night’s non-tender deadline was more active than most. As Jeff Passan noted, there were 40 non-tenders after a combined 46 over the previous two years. It was busy, and a few productive players were not offered contracts despite expectations for fairly reasonable salaries. There are some big conclusions to reach about the state of the game as well as some small ones based on last night. Here’s what we learned.

Teams Aren’t Paying for a Return to Form

Among the biggest non-tenders in terms of past production and expected salary were players who struggled for various reasons in 2019. Formerly injured pitchers in the process of returning from injury or needing time to return from injury like Taijuan Walker, Jimmy Nelson, and Aaron Sanchez were all non-tendered despite expected salaries in the $4 million to $6 million range. Previous successful players with rough years like Kevin Gausman, Blake Treinen, and Travis Shaw were all let go despite prior track records of success. In the cases of Gausman and Treinen, an expected salary of close to $10 million likely played a role, though it isn’t necessarily clear that the decisions wouldn’t have been the same even if a few million dollars had been shaved off the cost. Steven Souza Jr. has decent projections for next season, but he did poorly in 2018 and didn’t play at all last season. For the most part, teams weren’t willing to roll the dice on bounce-back campaigns. Read the rest of this entry »


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/19

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December 3, 2019
2:00
Meg Rowley: Hi all, and welcome to the chat!
2:00
Meg Rowley: We’ll get going in a second here, but a few things to highlight from the site today:
2:01
Meg Rowley: First, Jay’s Jeter profile is live, and a good read, so read it! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2020-hall-of-fame-ballot-dere…
2:01
Meg Rowley: Craig took a look at the Moustakas deal: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-go-big-with-mike-moustakas/
2:02
Meg Rowley: and also at some themes that emerged from the non-tender deadline: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-lessons-from-the-wild-non-tender-dead…
2:02
Meg Rowley: Also, this reported piece from Justin Klugh on the Wichita Wind Surge and the controversy surrounding their name is well worth your time: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-change-in-the-wind-wichita-faces-blowbac…

Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot: Derek Jeter

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December 3, 2019
2020 BBWAA Ballot

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

No other player, not even 2019 Hall of Fame inductee Mariano Rivera — the first player ever elected unanimously by the writers — typified the Yankees’ late-1990s resurgence and evolution into a dynasty more than Derek Jeter. A 1992 first-round pick out of Kalamazoo, Michigan, the 6-foot-3 shortstop seemed not only to be built for stardom but engineered to withstand the spotlight’s glare. Famously instilled with a level-headedness by his parents, who during his childhood made him sign code-of-conduct contracts, he pulled off the remarkable feat of simultaneously exuding a cocky charisma and an off-the-charts baseball IQ while remaining completely enigmatic even in the country’s largest media market. Not only did he avoid mental mistakes on the field, he ably evaded virtually every controversy that surrounded the Yankees; by the time he turned 29 years old, he had been named team captain. During his two decades in pinstripes, he played a pivotal role for 16 playoff teams, seven pennant winners, and five champions. Not until he was 34, deep into his 14th season, did he play a game in which his team had been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

With an inside-out swing that yielded consistently high batting averages and on-base percentages, Jeter was a hit machine, an ideal table-setter among the Bronx Bombers. In 15 of his 18 full seasons, he collected at least 179 hits, and 13 times, he scored at least 100 runs. He did both with such consistency and longevity that he ranks sixth all-time in hits (3,465) — not just more than any other shortstop, but more than any other infielder — and 11th in runs scored (1,923). Though he had less power than Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra, the pair with whom he formed the “Holy Trinity” of shortstops, he was fully capable of hitting a well-timed home run. In fact, his 20 postseason homers are third all-time, yet one of the rare October (and November, ahem) records that he does not hold. He wasn’t without flaws, of course. Though his strong arm, sure hands, and low error totals helped him pass the eye tests of casual fans, broadcasters, and even the opposing managers who bestowed five Gold Gloves upon him, his defensive metrics are brutal. Even so, they’re outweighed by contributions in every other aspect of the game.

Thanks to his 3,000-plus hits and his collection of championship rings, Jeter will have no trouble gaining first-ballot entry to the Hall of Fame. With the precedent of non-unanimity finally broken, the primary suspense of this cycle is whether he’ll match Rivera by receiving the full 100% from the writers. Secondarily, and more frustratingly, the possibility exists that his presence on the ballot will overshadow other worthy candidates. Either way, he’ll be standing on the dais in Cooperstown next summer. Read the rest of this entry »


A Change in the Wind: Wichita Faces Blowback Over Wind Surge

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December 3, 2019

Wichita’s windy season is said to last from early February to late May, when the gusts change from frigid blasts to hot breaths. The windiest day of the year is historically April 4; a day when hairdos and stacks of loose papers must stand strong against gales blustering at an average of 13 mph.

Occasionally, there will be a spike in velocity that knocks out the power or rolls back a tin roof or tries to tear the awning off of the Valero gas station on Caulfield and Kemp. A fire inspector once cast a wary eye on the 1916 Wichita Fair and Exposition, concerned, per the The Wichita Daily Eagle on October 22, that the flammable structures of the event created a great risk of conflagration due to the “high, dry winds we have in the fall,” his fears rooted in both science and the fact that this very thing had happened the previous year.

So in Wichita, they are aware of the wind. They know that it blows, that it carries the cold and the heat of the plains, and that it occasionally bends a gas station in half. They do not all understand why it is the name of the town’s new Triple-A franchise, the Wichita Wind Surge, an affiliate of the Miami Marlins.

“I guess it’s windy here,” says Wichita resident Eric Pierce, “but… wind’s kind of everywhere.” Read the rest of this entry »


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