When Should Teams Press the Advantage?

When the Nationals took an early lead in the World Series, there was a popular cry for the team to knock the Astros out while they could. Expend resources you were planning on saving for later in the series, turn Patrick Corbin into a reliever, maybe bring back some starters on short rest: what does it matter if you hurt your chances of winning Game 7, the thinking goes, if Game 7 never happens?

A softer version of this came up as the Cardinals walloped the Braves in Game 5 of the NLDS. The game was already decided. Why not pull Jack Flaherty so that he could pitch Games 1 and 5 of the NLCS rather than Games 3 and 7? It’s not an identical situation, but it relies on the same logic: earlier games happen more often, so get your pitchers into those.

Tomorrow night, there will be yet another version of this discussion. The Astros are a win away from ending the series. If the game goes into extra innings, say, or Justin Verlander gets knocked around but the offense keeps the team in it, would Houston use Zack Greinke in an attempt to end things right then and there? And should they?

While these questions are similar, they’re not identical. Does this reallocation of win probability matter? The answer, as it often is, is “it depends.” I believe the answers to these three questions are “not much,” “not at all,” and “more than you’d think,” respectively, and I’ll attempt to lay out why I think that is the case here.
Read the rest of this entry »


Neither the Problem Nor the Solution in Pittsburgh, Pirates Fire Neal Huntington

Some change is coming to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over the last month, the team has fired long-time manager Clint Hurdle and President Frank Coonelly, and today the news came out that GM Neal Huntington is out of a job as well. Owner Bob Nutting is still the one making the calls in Pittsburgh, but the team has hired a new President, with former Pittsburgh Penguins hockey executive Travis Williams taking over the business side of the operation in hopes of duplicating his success with the city’s hockey team. As for Huntington, his departure signals a major change in operations for the Pirates. But a change in operations doesn’t necessarily mean a change in direction, and some skepticism regarding the latter is warranted given the last few decades of Pirates baseball.

Every franchise experiences inflection points, where the team charts a new course in an attempt to move forward. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2018; a year later, they fired Dave Dombrowski and brought in Chaim Bloom to help sustain his predecessor’s success while avoiding the failings that precipitated Dombrowski’s departure from Detroit. After sustained failure, the Cubs hired Theo Epstein and the Astros brought in Jeff Luhnow. Both were enlisted to tear down and then rebuild their respective franchises in the hopes of striking out on a new path and contending for the playoffs and championships. It’s not entirely clear that this is what’s happening in Pittsburgh. The club missed its opportunity to capitalize on its three-year playoff run from 2013 to ’15, and faces a future that doesn’t look too different from most of its past. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: The KBO and NPB Ballot

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.

Below are ballots for four of this year’s possible free agents — in this case, a group of players who may come to (or return to) Major League Baseball from Japan and Korea.

Shogo Akiyama, the 31-year-old left-handed center fielder who has been playing for the NPB’s Saitama Seibu Lions, was recently confirmed as an international free agent. Japanese outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who is 27, will be posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Left-handed starting pitcher Kim Kwang-Hyun, whose name may be familiar as he was posted in 2014 but was unable to come to terms with the San Diego Padres, has a more complicated case. The 31-year-old has a year remaining on his existing contract. Despite that, there is a chance he will be granted free agency and would not be subject to a posting fee. He may also be posted by his current club. Or he may stay put. He has been scouted by MLB teams, however, and so is included here. Right-handed starter Josh Lindblom, who last played in the States with the Pirates in 2017, has also generated some interest after a strong season with the Doosan Bears.


Job Posting: Los Angeles Angels Internships

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions. All positions are paid.

Position: Baseball Operations Internship

Description:
The Los Angeles Angels Baseball Operations department is seeking passionate individuals to join their team for the 2020 season. Applicants can come from any discipline or background, as long as you have the curiosity, open-mindedness, and perseverance to take on difficult problems.

As a Baseball Operations Intern, you will be fully immersed in their department, and given the resources to learn, grow, and develop over the course of the season. The Angels’ goal is to find people with the necessary skills and traits to become long-term members of the department.

Examples of things you will do during the internship:

  • Contribute to the ML advance scouting process
  • Assist with preparation for the 2020 MLB Draft
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for communicating information to Baseball Operations personnel
  • Perform player evaluations, combining statistics, video, and other data sources
  • Assist with special projects as assigned

You should have:

  • Creativity, strong attention to detail, and a growth mindset
  • Excellent interpersonal and communication skills
  • Ability to work as part of a team on complex projects
  • Willingness to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • A flexible schedule with availability to work nights, weekends, and holidays

Physical Demands:

  • Ability to sit for extended periods of time
  • Ability to traverse office and stadium frequently
  • Ability to work in inclement weather (when in stadium)

In addition to handling the essential functions of the Angels’ internship, the team desires counter-intuitive thinkers who will take initiative and explore new research opportunities. Previous interns have developed ideas that have changed the way the organization approaches important challenges and they hope you will bring the same mindset with you.

The Angels believe that diversity contributes to a more enriched collective perspective and a better decision-making process. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, gender, gender identity or expression, sexual orientation, national origin, genetics, disability, age, or veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply:
Please provide (1) a current resume and (2) answer the following two questions in no more than 250 words each. These requirements are an integral part of your application. Incomplete applications may not be considered. Application deadline is 8:59 pm PST on Tuesday, November 5, 2019.

1. Detail a project or experience that you have worked on that you are proud of. Do you have any takeaways from this experience that have helped prepare you for this role? The project or experience does not need to be baseball-related.

2. What is the area in which you feel you need the most improvement? What are some steps you could take to improve upon this weakness?

Applications should be completed through this link.

Position: Player Development Internship

The Los Angeles Angels Player Development department is seeking passionate individuals to join their team for the 2020 season. Applicants can come from any discipline or background as long as you have the curiosity, open-mindedness, and perseverance to take on difficult problems.

As a Player Development Intern, you will be fully immersed in their department, and given the resources to learn, grow, and develop over the course of the season. Our goal is to find people with the necessary skills and traits to become long-term members of the department. The internship is based out of the Angels Minor League Complex in Tempe, Arizona and begins in early January.

Examples of things you will do during the internship:

  • Collaborate with Player Development personnel to create, organize, and develop tools to support processes and players throughout the year
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for communicating information to Player Development personnel and minor league players
  • Perform player evaluations combining statistics, video, and other data sources
  • Assist with special projects as assigned across Player Development and other areas of Baseball Operations (i.e. Amateur Draft, Trade Deadline)
  • Contribute to day-to-day operations of the Player Development department

You should have:

  • Interest in the latest trends and research in Player Development
  • Creativity, strong attention to detail, and a growth mindset
  • Excellent interpersonal and communication skills
  • Ability to work as part of a team on complex projects
  • Strong willingness to work with individuals from a variety of linguistic, cultural, and socioeconomic backgrounds
  • Enthusiasm to both teach others and learn new techniques
  • A flexible schedule with availability to work nights, weekends, and holidays

Physical Demands:

  • Ability to sit for extended periods of time
  • Ability to traverse office and stadium frequently
  • Ability to work in inclement weather (when in stadium)

In addition to handling the essential functions of their internship, the Angels desire counter-intuitive thinkers who will take initiative and explore new research opportunities. Previous interns have developed ideas that have changed the way the organization approaches important challenges and they hope you will bring the same mindset with you.

The Angels believe that diversity contributes to a more enriched collective perspective and a better decision-making process. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, gender, gender identity or expression, sexual orientation, national origin, genetics, disability, age, or veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

To Apply:
Please provide (1) a current resume and (2) answer the following two questions in no more than 250 words each. These requirements are an integral part of your application. Incomplete applications may not be considered. Application deadline is 8:59 pm PST on Tuesday, November 5, 2019.

1. Detail a project or experience that you have worked on that you are proud of. Do you have any takeaways from this experience that have helped prepare you for this role? The project or experience does not need to be baseball-related.

2. What is the area in which you feel you need the most improvement? What are some steps you could take to improve upon this weakness?

3. What is your level of fluency in English and Spanish?

Applications should be completed through this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Los Angeles Angels.


Job Posting: Braves Pro Scouting Trainee and Minor League Video & Information Intern

This posting contains two positions. Please note instructions for applying for each position below.

Position: Professional Scouting Trainee

Reports to: Assistant Director; Professional Scouting

Position Overview: The Atlanta Braves Professional Scouting Department is seeking a trainee for the 2020 baseball season. This trainee position will interface with the Atlanta Braves front office as well as the be the main point of contact for the Professional Scouts.

Trainee Program Department Overview: This is an entry-level opportunity that will expose the individual to the many facets of not only the Professional Scouting Department but will provide a strong foundation to begin a career in professional baseball.

Major responsibilities:

  • Daily updating of roster/magnet boards for all executives
    • This will require knowledge of MLB’s eBis2 platform
  • Ability to generate specific reports as requested by executives in a timely fashion
  • Point person regarding visiting scout tickets
  • Main person to oversee Braves scouts’ schedules
  • Coordinate annual departmental meetings (travel, accommodation, meals, etc.)
  • Produce/send daily player transaction emails to the professional scouting staff
  • Attend/scout all home games
  • Potential travel to affiliates nearby to scout the system
  • First point of contact with the Pro Scouts

Required Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s degree
  • Proficient in Microsoft Word and Excel
  • Knowledge of current baseball statistics and analytics used in player evaluation
  • Excellent interpersonal, communication, and presentation skills
  • Intermediate knowledge of SQL Server
  • Possess excellent critical thinking and time management skills
  • Ability to work extensive hours as dictated by the Major League season schedule (including weekends and holidays throughout the season)
  • Knowledge of and passion for professional baseball
  • Must be able to sit for extended periods of time
  • Must be able to move throughout all areas and levels of the ballpark
  • Must be able to relocate to the Atlanta area
  • Commitment from January 1 through December 15
  • Must complete a successful background check

Preferred qualifications:

  • Master’s degree
  • Basic understanding of R
  • Previous baseball playing experience

To Apply:
To apply for the Professional Scouting Trainee position, please submit resume/cover letter to proscouting@braves.com.

Position: Minor League Video & Information Intern

Reports to: Minor League Video Coordinator

Position Overview: The Minor League Video and Information Intern will provide a service to an Atlanta Braves affiliate through charting live baseball games and providing video and information to Braves coaches, coordinators, and front office members. This role manages all aspects of the assigned affiliate’s video and advance scouting operation and aims to provide an experience that prepares the ideal candidate for a future role in the baseball industry.

Responsibilities:

  • Capture and chart video for each game of the full minor league schedule of an assigned affiliate (home games and team travel to road games, postseason included).
  • Manage a network of cameras set up to collect high-quality video from multiple angles.
  • Attach, edit, and upload video following each game daily.
  • Support the coaching staff/players with ad-hoc video/technology requests as assigned.
  • Participate in the affiliate’s advance scouting process and produce associated materials for the coaching staff.
  • Attend a portion of the Braves’ Spring Training camp in Venice, FL to undergo training in video and advance information.
  • Participate in periodic calls with the Baseball Operations group in Atlanta.
  • Other duties as assigned.

Qualifications:

  • An understanding and appreciation for diverse cultures and an ability to work effectively and relate well with individuals of diverse backgrounds.
  • Self-motivated individual with high degree of responsibility including confidentiality, sense of urgency, and accountability.
  • Proactive, organized, and detail-oriented person who can prioritize their workload and follow-through with minimal supervision.
  • Flexibility and enthusiasm in attitude and approach.
  • Willing to relocate to a Braves minor league affiliate from Mid-March through Mid-September.
  • Ability to work flexible hours, including nights, weekends, and some holidays.
  • The ability to safely lift and transport equipment weighing 25 lbs. or more.
  • The ability to climb ladders and successfully place equipment from variable positions and heights.
  • Bachelor’s degree
  • Must complete a successful background check.

Preferred qualifications:

  • Bilingual preferred
  • Programming experience with SQL/R
  • Playing experience at the collegiate/professional level
  • This is a paid position that includes a housing stipend for the duration of the minor league season.

To Apply:
To apply for the Minor League Video & Information Intern position, please submit resume/cover letter to MLops@braves.com.

The Atlanta Braves are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Atlanta Braves.


Road Warriors Again: Astros Take Third Straight in Washington

So much for home field advantage. The visitors won for the fifth straight time in this World Series, which means that after losing the first two games of this series to the Nationals, the Astros are up three games to two. They took advantage of Max Scherzer being scratched from his rematch with Gerrit Cole due to neck spasms, tagging emergency starter Joe Ross with a pair of two-run homers. That was more than enough run support for a dominant Cole, though Houston’s lineup tacked on three more runs in the late innings and won 7-1. During the three games in Washington, they walloped the Nationals by a combined 19-3 score, and they’re now one win away from their second championship in three seasons.

A few quick thoughts on the game, which also featured a shaky strike zone from home plate umpire Lance Barksdale, a pair of flashers behind home plate that distracted Cole, and a visit from Donald Trump that did not go as well as the president envisioned…

Pain in the Neck

The character of Sunday night’s Game 5 changed significantly before a single pitch was thrown. Three and a half hours before game time, the Nationals announced that Scherzer, who had allowed two runs in five innings in Game 1 opposite Cole, had been scratched due to spasms and nerve irritation in his right trapezius, problems for which he had begun undergoing treatment on Friday. Though he had been able to play catch on Saturday, Scherzer had woken up on Sunday in intense pain, and “completely couldn’t get out of bed… I had to basically fall out of bed and pick myself up with my left arm,” as he said during a pregame media session during which his pain and immobility were quite apparent.

“I’m as disappointed as I possibly can be not to be able to pitch tonight,” he said. “I’ve pitched through so much crap in my career that would be easy to pitch through at this point. This is literally impossible to do anything with.” He received a cortisone shot in the hopes of being available for a Game 7, if there is one. Read the rest of this entry »


World Series Game 5 Chat

7:52
Paul Sporer: Welcome to the chat, everyone! Ben and I will be with your for the evening. Brutal news for the Nats shortly before game time with Max Scherzer being scratched due to severe back spasms. An uphill battle against Cole gets even tougher now!

7:53
Paul Sporer:

Who ya got for Game 5?

Houston (79.4% | 85 votes)
 
Washington (20.5% | 22 votes)
 

Total Votes: 107
7:55
Sonny: So…not a great 48 hours for the Nats

7:55
This is Lude-i-cris: Wow! Ya gotta feel terrible for Scherzer. It’s only the biggest game of his life!

7:56
kershaws the GOAT: lets go nats!!!

7:56
Belli Flop: I never thought I would say this: Go Joe Ross!

Read the rest of this entry »


Scherzer Scratched From Game 5 Start

Fresh from the unpleasant surprise department, the Washington National announced Sunday afternoon that Max Scherzer would be scratched from his Game 5 start. Scherzer has suffered neck pain in recent days and in the words of Nationals GM Mike Rizzo, is in “ungodly pain.” In for Game 5 is Joe Ross, whose only appearance so far this postseason was when he threw two shutout innings of relief in Washington’s Game 3 loss to Houston.

Considering that at times this postseason Scherzer has looked as if he would have to be dragged from the mound by a full SWAT team, I would imagine there’s not a great deal of hyperbole involved in the description of his pain. The Silver Hammer’s replacement, Joe Ross, fared well in 2019 when used as a starter, allowing a 3.02 ERA and 3.86 FIP in nine starts, all in the second half of the season. Ross, who once assisted shortstop Trea Turner in making the Wil Myers three-way trade look like a disaster for the non-Washington teams, has otherwise had his career waylaid by injuries.

The larger question, of course, is just what this means for Washington’s bottom-line playoff odds. Initially coming into Game 5, ZiPS projected the Astros to have a 61%-39% edge to win the series. But what scenario are we exactly projecting now? The answer depends on what actually happens with Scherzer’s injury, which is speculation at this point.

Ross’ start is essentially forced by the Nationals’ relief corps. Washington doesn’t have the arms to make a bonafide bullpen game a palatable scenario to the team, and with Austin Voth off the roster, they can’t start him without ruling another pitcher out due to injury. In any case, the Nats certainly don’t want to rule out Scherzer’s return unless they absolutely have to, and one would imagine the league looking very closely at the situation if Fernando Rodney or Tanner Rainey were to “suddenly” suffer injuries that necessitated them being replaced on the roster.

For the ZiPS World Series probabilities, I’m going with the happy scenario for now: Ross starts tonight, with Stephen Strasburg going in Game 6, and Scherzer left for a return in a possible Game 7. If you look at the probabilities right now, you’ll actually see the Nationals’ championship probability get a small bump to a 40%/60% deficit. ZiPS is a noted Aníbal Sánchez skeptic, and projects Ross as a minor improvement, by about two-tenths of a run per nine innings.

That, of course, doesn’t mean that this is welcome news for the Nationals, only that it’s beneficial in one very specific scenario, one the Nationals are far from guaranteed to see. To get an idea of the probabilities in some of the scenarios that are far uglier for the Nats, I re-ran the probabilities with a few of the possibilities, and condensed them into one pretty little chart!

ZiPS World Series Probabilities, Scherzer Scenarios
Scenarios Nats Championship
Scherzer pitching in Game 5 as intended, Scherzer-Strasburg-Sánchez 39%
Scherzer Game 7, pitching normally, Ross-Strasburg-Scherzer 40%
Scherzer Game 7, ERA 10% worse than projection, Ross-Strasburg-Scherzer 38%
Scherzer Game 7, ERA 30% worse than projection, Ross-Strasburg-Scherzer 36%
Ross-Strasburg-Sánchez, Scherzer healthy enough for 2 relief innings Game 7 37%
Ross-Strasburg-Sánchez, Scherzer out for playoffs 35%
Ross-Strasburg-Voth, Scherzer out for playoffs, Sánchez to bullpen 37%

Losing Scherzer for the rest of the World Series would be the worst-case scenario for the Nationals, but not one that dooms them. People tend to drastically overrate the dependability of a great starter’s excellence or a lousy starter’s ineptitude in an individual game. As terrific as Scherzer is, even in his best season, he was “only” worth 0.23 WAR per start, and was “just” 0.17 WAR better than the average pitcher. You want your best pitchers in the actual games, but even without Scherzer, who wins the series will come down to a lot more than his attendance.


Houston Takes Back the Driver’s Seat in Game 4 Shellacking

The Houston Astros evened up the World Series in convincing fashion Saturday night, defeating the Washington Nationals 8-1 in a game that was only in doubt for a few, relatively brief moments. With this win, the Astros reset the World Series into a best-of-three in which they have home-field advantage. By forcing a Game 6, regardless of the outcome of tonight’s Game 5, Houston guarantees that their last game of the year will be in front of their fans.

If there’s one thing that no one should be surprised about, it’s baseball’s ability to surprise. If you were talking to a friend who hasn’t been following the World Series, and told them a tale of a clutch Astros starter throwing five shutout innings on the sport’s biggest stage, they might think you were referring to the team’s 225-win, future Hall of Famer. Or maybe the Cy Young favorite who went undefeated for most of the season, or at least the ace pitcher picked up from the Diamondbacks in a blockbuster July trade.

Your friend in this theoretical may be extraordinarily well-informed and name Jose Urquidy, but three months ago, few would have expected Urquidy to be Houston’s firewall to prevent the team from falling to a 3-1 World Series deficit. The 24-year-old rookie not only isn’t an established veteran; he can’t even claim to be a phenom prospect making good on unlimited potential. Urquidy was barely on the prospect radar (he is currently 19th in the org on THE BOARD), a pitcher with a decent fastball and changeup, and good command, but little dazzle and an injury-shortened minor league career.

With their rotation ranking fourth in baseball in WAR, the Astros didn’t envision having fourth-starter questions in the playoffs. The acquisition of Zack Greinke appeared to make Wade Miley one of the game’s best fourth starters, completing the team’s playoff rotation. But Houston also didn’t envision that Miley, who sported an ERA under three as late as August, struggling immensely down the stretch. Miley pitched himself out of the rotation and then the playoffs entirely, leaving the Astros with something of a situation. A fourth starter wasn’t needed in the ALDS with its ample off-days, and any awkwardness in the ALCS was compensated for by the fact that the Yankees had the same worry. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Red Sox Prospect Thad Ward Has a Chris Sale Slider

Thad Ward didn’t make our Red Sox Top Prospect List prior to this season. Baseball America wasn’t bullish on the 22-year-old right-hander, either. Their rankings went 30-deep, and Ward didn’t make the cut.

Next year will be a different story. Ward was a revelation in his first full professional season, fanning 157 batters, and allowing just 89 hits, in 126-and-a-third innings. Those numbers came between low-A Greenville and high-A Salem, where his cumulative ERA was a sparkling 2.14.

His slider is his best pitch.

“It’s a Chris Sale slider,” is how Red Sox pitching guru Brian Bannister described it to me in late September. “It’s a sweeping slider, with a similar shape to Jhoulys Chacin’s or Corey Kluber’s. It has that extra horizontal component to it.”

That’s long been the case, although Ward’s understanding of the how-and-why is recent. When he reported to spring training this year, the 2018 fifth-round pick out of the University of Central Florida got a crash course in Pitching Analytics 101. Read the rest of this entry »