Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat–10/24/2019
October 24, 2019
You’re Gosh Darn Right We’ve Got More Intentional Walks
by Ben Clemens
October 24, 2019
I thought that with the advent of the World Series, the intentional walk beat was probably done for. The Astros famously didn’t intentionally walk anyone all year, and Dave Martinez seems to use intentional walks sparingly, albeit at wild times — his intentional walk of Max Muncy was one of the worst of the playoffs.
Imagine my surprise, then, when both managers intentionally walked players last night. The Nationals are always a threat to do that, sure, but the Astros?? If the Astros are intentionally walking someone, you know it’s serious. Let’s dive in.
First, the Nats walk. This one was a classic spot — Yordan Alvarez was at the plate in the sixth with a man on second in a tie game. With Carlos Correa on deck, it’s not as though it got a lot easier, but intentionally walking someone with first base open to switch the platoon matchup is a tactic as old as time.
Being as old as time doesn’t mean a tactic is good, though. Intentionally walking someone with only one out is almost never a good decision — there are just so many ways the inning can go wrong. Indeed, the walk bumped Houston’s win percentage from 60.5% to 62.8%. That 2.3% of a win is a lot to give up with a walk — could it possibly be worth it?
Alvarez has only a tiny platoon split, but with so few plate appearances, he looks like a basically average hitter when it comes to the platoon advantage after regressing his stats. He’s a good hitter overall, though, regardless of handedness. How good of a hitter? Well, Depth Charts doesn’t quite buy the hype; it projects him as a .363 wOBA hitter overall, which works out to .372 against righties. Pretty solid, if not quite Alvarez’s .437 wOBA against righties this year.
How about Correa? He’s a good hitter in his own right; a .355 wOBA per our projections. After applying platoon splits, that works out to .350 against righties. This decision doesn’t look merited unless Strasburg has huge platoon splits — and he emphatically does not. Strasburg has a huge sample of split-less pitching — so much of one, in fact, that even after regressing his line, he’s hardly worse against lefties than righties. Overall, he projects to allow a .278 wOBA to righties and .282 to lefties — basically a scratch. Read the rest of this entry »
Even a Homer Can’t Offset Bregman’s Bad Night and Bad Luck
With one swing of the bat, it appeared that Alex Bregman and the Astros had turned a corner. In the bottom of the first inning of a World Series Game 2 in which his team already trailed the Nationals 2-0, the 25-year-old third baseman pounced on a poorly located Stephen Strasburg changeup, sending it into the Crawford Boxes for a game-tying home run. The shot offered the promise of a fresh start — the superstar snapping his slump, and the powerhouse club washing away the memory of its opening night loss, if not the unending debacle that is the team’s handling of the Brandon Taubman case.
The rest of the night did not go so well, either for the Astros, who only managed to score a single run more, or for Bregman, who did not collect another hit and whose suddenly shaky defense figured prominently in a six-run seventh inning rally by the Nationals. The Astros now trail the Nationals two games to none as the series heads to Washington, and Bregman, whose play during the regular season might well garner him the AL MVP award, is still among the Astros whose offensive output this postseason has left something to be desired.
Bregman spent the past six months as merely the AL’s best player this side of Mike Trout, and thanks to the combination of his durability and versatility — he played 156 games overall, including 65 at shortstop while Carlos Correa was on the shelf — as well as the Astros’ success relative to the Angels, he may take home MVP honors. In his fourth major league season, he set across-the-board career bests with a .296/.423/.592 line, a 168 wRC+, 41 homers, an 8.5 WAR. Among AL qualifiers, his on-base percentage, wRC+, and WAR all ranked second, his slugging percentage and home run total third; he also led the league with 119 walks. While he started the postseason on a tear, hitting .353/.450/.647 with a homer in 20 PA against the Rays during the Division Series, he slipped to .167/.423/.222 in the ALCS against the Yankees, walking a series-high seven times but doing little else.
In Tuesday night’s World Series opener, Bregman went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, two against Max Scherzer and one against Sean Doolittle, plus a walk against control-challenged Tanner Rainey. “I’ve got to be better,” he told reporters after the game. “Starts with me. I was horrible all night.” Read the rest of this entry »
Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 8 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.
Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers who might be considered a step down in terms of quality compared to those on the prior starting pitcher ballot. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.
Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 7 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of interesting starting pitchers, a few of whom are very good, including the possible American League Cy Young Winner, Gerrit Cole. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.
Nationals Take 2-0 Series Lead as a Little Bit of History Repeats
by RJ McDaniel
October 24, 2019
I had a recap half-written in my head after six innings of last night’s pivotal Game 2. It focused, as expected, on the pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander; on how, perhaps more unexpectedly, both struggled in the first inning, each giving up two runs; and how they both settled, despite a tight strike zone and a steady stream of baserunners, into the familiar, soothing rhythms of solid-but-not-dominant pitching performances. (There was a little meditation, too, on the already-iconic Verlander leg throw.) Strasburg struck out seven, and Verlander, with his six, cleared the record for the most postseason punch outs of all time.
In the sixth, Verlander pitched his first clean inning of the game, and Strasburg escaped unscathed from a Yuli Gurriel double and an intentional walk of Yordan Alvarez. Through six, and the two teams were knotted at 2-2; Strasburg, with 114 pitches, was surely done for the night, and Verlander would just as surely be coming in for the top of the seventh.
As the broadcast faded to commercial, I settled into my nest of blankets. I know what this game is, I thought, like someone who doesn’t know what’s about to hit them.
***
The seventh inning, for whatever reason, always carries with it a sort of mystique. It’s the time when you rush to grab your last beers, when everyone stretches and you hear the creaking of your sad, aging joints, when the strange little ritual of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” is performed. It doesn’t have quite the tension of the eighth and ninth, but the mood is clearly distinct from, say, the fifth; if you’re at the game, you’re probably a little tired, a little out of it, getting a little chilly. On midsummer nights, it’s around the time the sun fades away. And ever since I witnessed the life-changing devil magic of the Jose Bautista Bat Flip Inning, I’ve been unable to stop myself from paying a little more attention when the seventh rolls around. It’s usually normal, just another inning in another baseball game. But you never know. You never know when the fabric of the game will begin to rip — or when it might be rent asunder. Read the rest of this entry »
Job Posting: Cleveland Data Scientist and Sports Science Analyst Roles
Please note, this posting contains multiple positions.
Position Title: Data Scientist
Department: Baseball Research & Development
Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Indians are seeking a data scientist to join the team’s Baseball Research and Development group. The data scientist will use their machine learning expertise and the Indians proprietary data to develop statistical and machine learning models that support baseball operations decisions across all facets of the organization. This position will work closely with other members of the R&D department as well as key stakeholders across the organization to design and build cutting edge models and tools that help the Indians stay ahead of the competition. The ideal candidate will possess experience working with large data sets and advanced machine-learning models. Strong applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and the ability to learn new concepts.
Essential Duties & Responsibilities:
- Research, design, test, and deploy machine learning models to support all aspects of Baseball Operations
- Work with high-dimensional spatio-temporal data and other large data sets
- Share technical expertise with other members of department; communicate findings to Baseball Operations staff
- Maintain an understanding of emerging data science tools and research, as well as potential new data sources and technology options
Role Requirements and Preferences:
- Education & Experience Requirements
- Advanced degree and/or demonstrated work experience in a quantitative field (i.e. computer science, statistics, engineering, mathematics)
- Experience with a variety of modeling and statistical techniques, such as neural nets, deep learning, support vector machines, gradient boosting, adversarial learning, and computer vision
- Expertise with statistical programming languages (e.g. R, Python)
- Proficiency in a database language (e.g. SQL)
Preferred Experience:
- Experience with one or more ML libraries such as Tensorflow, Keras, scikit-learn, Theano, Spark MLib, H2O
- Experience creating data visualizations with tools such as ggplot, d3.js, Matplotlib and/or Tableau
- Experience working with baseball data
- Experience with computer vision, particularly image segmentation, object detection, and tracking algorithms
Standard Requirements:
- Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
- Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
- Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
- Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
- Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
- Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
- Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
- Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
- Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
- Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.
To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.
Position Title: Sports Science Analyst
Department: Baseball Research & Development
Primary Purpose:
The Cleveland Indians are seeking an analyst to join the team’s Baseball Research and Development group with a focus on answering questions specific to sports science. The position will use data and statistics to provide research and analysis to support the Indians’ player development, medical, S&C, and sports science staff in helping Indians players perform at optimal levels. This individual will work closely with other analysts in the R&D department as well as sports science, player development, medical, strength & conditioning, and other staff members across the organization. The ideal candidate will possess a strong foundation in statistics and/or data science, the ability to effectively communicate findings to colleagues in non-technical roles, and a passion for learning more about baseball. Strong applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and the ability to learn new concepts.
Essential Duties & Responsibilities:
- Analyze and interpret baseball data with a focus on sports science
- Research, build, test, and deploy statistical models to support Baseball Operations
- Design and implement research studies to improve organizational knowledge in sports science
- Visualize data in concise, readable formats for non-technical staff members
- Communicate research findings to key stakeholders across the organization
- Work with sports science, strength & conditioning, and medical departments to capture player performance data
- Evaluate and recommend new data sources and technologies
Role Requirements and Preferences
Education & Experience Requirements:
- Bachelor’s degree or demonstrated work experience in a quantitative field such as statistics, mathematics, computer science, operations research, economics, or data science
- Demonstrated ability to solve problems in a data-driven way
- Creativity to brainstorm new avenues of research
- Demonstrated passion for baseball analytics and/or sports science.
- Proficiency in at least one statistical programming language (e.g. R, Python)
- Proficiency in a database language (e.g. SQL)
- Ability to communicate research findings and other technical concepts to non-technical audiences
Preferred Experience:
- Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research
- Advanced degree in a quantitative field
- Experience working with baseball data
- Experience with data visualization
- Experience with experimental design and/or causal inference
Standard Requirements:
- Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
- Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
- Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
- Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
- Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
- Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
- Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
- Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
- Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
- Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25lbs.
To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Indians.
Job Posting: Tigers Player Development Coach
Position: Player Development Coach
Job Description:
The Detroit Tigers are currently seeking Player Development Coaches for minor league affiliate coaching staffs. This role will work collaboratively with the Manager, Hitting Coach and Pitching Coach. As a member of the Tigers Player Development staff, this coach will collaborate with Baseball Analytics, Performance Science and Video Operations to support the goal of improving on-field player performance. This coach will be responsible for the support of technologies and data collection, the review and distribution of advance reports and general coaching support. A successful candidate will have strong on-field baseball experience, a technical aptitude and an educational mindset.
Key Responsibilities:
- Assist the coaching staff with the integration of information provided by Baseball Analytics, Performance Science, Athletic Training, Strength and Conditioning and Video Operations.
- Provide guidance, oversight and support for the technologies used by coaching staff and players.
- Continually educate and support players and staff members on organizational analytics, technologies and philosophies.
- Provide regular feedback to appropriate staff members on the implementation and usage of technologies and data to ensure effectiveness and quality.
- Assist with the development of daily plans to support overall Player Development goals for each player.
- Throw batting practice and participate in on-field training sessions on an as-needed basis.
Minimum Knowledge, Skilles, and Abilities:
- Excellent organization and time-management skills.
- Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
- Strong aptitude for information technology.
- Experience or strong interest in using baseball data to support coaching or skill development.
- Prior playing experience strongly preferred.
- Knowledge of advanced baseball statistics preferred.
- Experience with any of the following technologies strongly preferred:
- Rapsodo
- TrackMan
- Blast Motion/Diamond Kinetics
- K-Motion/4D Motion
- Edgertronic
- Force Plates
- Experience with programming or scripting languages (e.g., Python, R, SQL) a plus.
- Fluency in Spanish a plus.
Working Conditions:
- Located at the Tigers minor league affiliates (Toledo, OH; Erie, PA; Lakeland, FL; Comstock Park, MI; Norwich, CT).
- Requires travel on road trips.
- Evening, weekend, and holiday hours required.
To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Detroit Tigers.
Sean Doolittle’s Important Turnaround Evident in Game 1
by Devan Fink
October 23, 2019
With two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning, the Nationals up by just a single run, and George Springer on second base, Dave Martinez strolled to the mound to summon a pitching change. In the bullpen getting warm was left-hander Sean Doolittle, one of the two relievers Washington has been able to regularly trust this October.
Doolittle has been a National for two-and-a-half seasons now, and though he could become a free agent at season’s end, he has a team option that is almost assuredly to be picked up. He represents just one of Mike Rizzo’s numerous midseason reliever pickups. In 2015, it was Jonathan Papelbon. In 2016, Mark Melancon. In 2017, Doolittle and Ryan Madson. And in 2019, it was a triad of Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elías, and Daniel Hudson. Rizzo has tried and tried again to build a bullpen; his success, at best, has been mixed. With Doolittle though, he struck gold. Read the rest of this entry »