Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about what the Padres’ 2017 Rule 5 trio is up to now, the Mariners’ aggressive Evan White extension, how teams would distribute their spending if every player (amateur or pro) were a free agent but spending were capped at a percentage of MLB revenue, the just-announced All-MLB Team, the White Sox signing Yasmani Grandal, whether the early action on the free-agent market has been at all surprising or encouraging, and the results of Sam’s surveys about a “Baseball Genie” who grants fans of each team’s wishes, with a catch.

Audio intro: The Jayhawks, "You Look So Young"
Audio outro: The Claypool Lennon Delirium, "Cricket and the Genie (Movement I, The Delirium)"

Link to Ben on the Padres’ Rule 5 experiment in 2017
Link to Sam on the Padres’ Rule 5 experiment in 2017
Link to Sam in 2013 on the future of extensions
Link to Kiley on the White extension
Link to Passan’s All-MLB Team
Link to All-MLB Team voting
Link to Ben on the historically slow November 2017
Link to Sam on Grandal in 2016
Link to Sam on the MLB genie
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Last season, the Atlanta Braves platooned Brian McCann and Tyler Flowers behind the plate. Neither player was great, but the pair produced more than three wins, which put them in the top 10 for team catching totals. Atlanta had already re-upped Flowers with a one-year deal, but with McCann’s retirement, the club needed a replacement for his half of the duo. Enter Travis d’Arnaud, who agreed to a two-year deal worth $16 million, as first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The McCann/Flowers combo worked well because the lefty McCann and the righty Flowers could platoon. That won’t be the case next year, as d’Arnaud bats right-handed as well. It should, however, provide more flexibility regarding rest and pitching matchups. Both players hit lefties well and are usable against righties, which means that manager Brian Snitker can decide who plays based on the best matchup with his own pitchers.

Flowers is one of the best framing catchers in baseball. Since 2015, his 77 runs above average are second only to Yasmani Grandal’s 100, though Flowers has 1,300 fewer innings.

But Flowers isn’t necessarily a guy you want to play 140 times. He’ll be 34 years old next year, he’s a poor thrower, and he doesn’t have much of a stick: After a hot April last year, he put up a 73 wRC+ the rest of the way. While the Braves were happy to bring Flowers back at a low salary, they needed another competent catcher to replace McCann.

d’Arnaud fills that void, and at a pretty fair price given his blend of experience and upside. On our Top 50 Free Agents list, Kiley McDaniel projected d’Arnaud would get two years and $14 million. Ben Clemens had this to say about him:

What you think of Travis d’Arnaud’s free agency is entirely a matter of perspective. Is he the player who the Mets released in May? Is he the cleanup hitter for a playoff team? Both are true, but neither paints a complete picture. It goes beyond this year, too: is he the former top prospect who compiled 6.2 WAR in roughly 700 PA in 2014 and 2015, or the injury-prone journeyman who totaled 2.4 WAR in a similar amount of time over the next three seasons, losing his job to a carousel of middling backstops in the process? Again, the truth lies somewhere between these two extremes. Put it all together, and d’Arnaud projects as a roughly average player, and average catchers entering their age 31 seasons aren’t typically in high demand. There’s still a whiff of pedigree to him, however, even after his inconsistent career thus far, and plenty of playoff hopefuls could use an average catcher, which means d’Arnaud will likely have his pick of destinations on a small-ish contract.

That d’Arnaud was able to beat the estimates is a testament to a thin catching market. Per our Free Agent Tracker, these were the top talents available this winter:

There weren’t too many full-time starters available. Jason Castro might have been a fit, given his lefty bat and decent projection, but d’Arnaud had more plate appearances last season than Castro the last two years combined. Add in the age difference between d’Arnaud and Castro, and it’s clear why the righty was a compelling option.

While Flowers’ season might have been cause for some concern with the Braves, d’Arnaud played well once he arrived in Tampa Bay. The graph below shows his 100-game rolling wRC+ over the last four seasons:

While d’Arnaud’s numbers in recent seasons don’t leap off the page, he was quite good at the plate in Tampa. Even with an underwhelming 67 wRC+ in September, d’Arnaud posted a 107 wRC+ with Tampa Bay across 92 games and 365 plate appearances, and his contact quality was even better than that. Because he didn’t make it to the Rays until the second week in May, d’Arnaud actually carried a pretty significant workload, playing roughly three-quarters of the time. With Flowers in the fold and no need to play first or designated hitter, d’Arnaud should get a bit more rest and perhaps see some improvement in his numbers.

d’Arnaud framing metrics were pretty good last year, though not as stellar as his early career figures in New York, when he was 41 runs above average. He missed nearly all the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery, and it is difficult to tell if the decline in framing production stems from recovery, aging, or just random fluctuation. In any case, if d’Arnaud is a league average bat or his framing numbers rebound at all, this contract will be a bargain for Atlanta.

The Braves are off to a strong start this winter. They’ve solved their catching problem early on with Flowers and d’Arnaud and revamped their bullpen with the signings of Chris Martin and Will Smith.

They shouldn’t stop there. The team has yet to replace Josh Donaldson or his production at third base, they still need a starting outfielder and to push Nick Markakis to a part-time role. The Braves also need to augment their rotation. While Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, and Max Fried are decent options and Sean Newcomb, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Touki Touissant provide depth, the club needs to replace the quality innings thrown by Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teherán. The Braves have decisively patched up the small holes on their squad: Now they must address the bigger issues.

In October, Baseball America and The New York Times reported on a proposal from Major League Baseball that, if enacted, would dramatically reimagine the minor leagues. The proposal was the opening salvo of the League’s negotiations with Minor League Baseball over a new Professional Baseball Agreement (PBA), the agreement that governs the relationship between MLB and minor league teams, and includes plans to shift the timing of the amateur draft, realign parent-club affiliations, league geographies, and levels in some cases, and eliminate 42 teams. In justifying the shift, MLB pointed to a desire to improve minor league compensation and playing conditions, reduce burdensome travel, and elevate the facility standards of minor league parks. Those are worthy goals, though the fact that many of them could be accomplished within the existing minor league structure by simply spending more money suggests that this move may be one that is also motivated by cost-savings and efficiency, rather than just concern for minor leaguers on long bus rides.

Earlier this month, the Times revealed which teams are currently slated for closure under MLB’s proposal. Those teams, along with their 2019 total attendance figures are listed in the sortable table below:

With a more specific list of affiliates in hand, we wondered how these closures would affect access to professional baseball across the country. Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to my first solo chat in over two months! Between our postseason group chats, the Hall of Fame ballot releases timed to coincide with this time slot, and some lesser issues, I’ve been out of the loop with this process but for today, I’m back at it, just in time to avoid giving you any useful Thanksgiving tips.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: Last week, a good chunk of our staff descended upon New York City and we did a FanGraphs live thing on Thursday. During my panel, which also included The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler and Marc Carig, I went into a tangent on batting average, saying, “Let’s give a shit about batting average again” or words to that effect (I haven’t played this back https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1460-live-fro…), a sentiment that I’ve been mulling for months but haven’t had the chance to write up in full treatise form

12:07

Jay Jaffe: The statement, which i only briefly fleshed out, has to do with countering the aesthetic shortcomings of the current iteration of baseball before us, and I think Bring Back Jeff’s non-question kind of summarizes some of that. Anyway, I’ll have more to say about the topic at some point this winter, perhaps even in the next couple weeks, but I make no promises as to when because it’s Hall season and I’m up to my neck in both Modern Baseball and BBWAA processes.

12:08

Jay Jaffe: Anyway… on with the show, which will also be interrupted by a brief radio spot that you can hear via SiriusXM at about 12:35

Read the rest of this entry »

There are a myriad of things pitchers can do to get a leg up on a hitter. Changing speeds, eye level, sequencing, and even spin rate are a few of the more popular methods. Changing speeds can interfere with a hitter’s timing, while changing eye levels can force a hitter to adjust to a larger focal point. Varying pitch selection based on the situation can help a pitcher become less predictable, and changing the spin rate can have an effect on the expected movement of a pitch.

But there are other subtle tricks pitchers have up their sleeves. One of these tricks, explored in an article for The Athletic by Joe Schwarz and elaborated on in another by Eno Sarris, is known as pitch or spin mirroring, and with the right pitch attributes, it can be a powerful weapon.

Being able to spot a pitch’s spin can tip a hitter off to what is coming, a skill some hitters claim to have. That’s a big advantage to have in a decision that transpires over the course of milliseconds. When pitches are spinning over 2000 times a minute, is the human eye really that good? Perhaps. As Preston Wilson points out in the piece linked to above, a hitter might see “more white or more red,” which gives an indication as to what pitch is coming. More white would indicate a faster or more abundantly spinning pitch, like a curveball or fastball, while more red could be a changeup.

In theory, a pitcher could use spin mirroring effect to parry those abilities, especially with a fastball and curveball combo because of the high spin on both pitches. Furthermore, if the rotation blur of the ball is mostly white, you’ll have a much harder time deciphering the direction in which the spin is oriented. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday, the New York Yankees released Jacoby Ellsbury, cutting ties with the oft-injured outfielder even though he still had a year and more than $26 million left on his long-term deal. The Yankees are trying to worm their way out of that commitment, on the somewhat dubious premise that he received treatment from an unapproved physician, so the drama isn’t quite over yet. Either way though, he’s played his last game in New York. Along with Greg Bird and Nester Cortes Jr., Ellsbury was released in order to clear roster space for younger prospects.

By any measure, Ellsbury’s time in the Bronx was a disappointment. He played 120 games only twice, topped the three-win mark just once, and started four playoff games during his tenure. His first season was promising: He took advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right and parked 16 homers, the second-highest total of his career, en route to a 3.6 WAR season. But injuries and age soon caught up with him. While he retained most his speed and wits on the bases, starting in 2015, his production at the plate dipped noticeably. After falling out of the lineup in 2017, Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season recovering from an oblique strain and a torn labrum in his hip, and then all of last year while batting plantar fasciitis. He was not expected to contribute significantly to the 2020 Yankees had he remained part of the roster.

In the wake of his release, there have been a few pieces speculating about where Ellsbury ranks on New York’s list of biggest free agent busts. That’s as unfair as it is uncharitable for a player who was pretty good in pinstripes before injuries kept him away from the field.

More to the point, there’s far more about Ellsbury’s career to celebrate than to lament. At his best, he was a breathtaking center fielder and one of the most exciting baserunners in recent memory. His 343 career steals are the seventh-most of any player this century, an impressive total even without considering that he stole successfully more than 82% of the time. He was a big part of two World Series winners and his out-of-nowhere power spike in 2011 fueled one of the best individual seasons of the decade. He stole home not once but twice, and set a major league record by reaching base 30 times on catcher’s interference. He was good, he was fun, and if this is the end for Ellsbury, we’re lucky to have seen him play. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

“A hard-charging third baseman” who “could have played shortstop with more range than Cal Ripken.” “A no-nonsense star.” “The perfect baseball player.” Scott Rolen did not lack for praise, particularly in the pages of Sports Illustrated at the height of his career. A masterful, athletic defender with the physical dimensions of a tight end (listed at 6-foot-4, 245 pounds), Rolen played with an all-out intensity, sacrificing his body in the name of stopping balls from getting through the left side of the infield. Many viewed him as the position’s best for his time, and he more than held his own with the bat as well, routinely accompanying his 25 to 30 homers a year with strong on-base percentages.

There was much to love about Rolen’s game, but particularly in Philadelphia, the city where he began his major league career and the one with a reputation for fraternal fondness, he found no shortage of critics — even in the Phillies organization. Despite winning 1997 NL Rookie of the Year honors and emerging as a foundation-type player, Rolen was blasted publicly by manager Larry Bowa and special assistant to the general manager Dallas Green. While ownership pinched pennies and waited for a new ballpark, fans booed and vilified him. Eventually, Rolen couldn’t wait to skip town, even when offered a deal that could have been worth as much as $140 million. Traded in mid-2002 to the Cardinals, he referred to St. Louis as “baseball heaven,” which only further enraged the Philly faithful.

In St. Louis, Rolen provided the missing piece of the puzzle, helping a team that hadn’t been to the World Series since 1987 make two trips in three years (2004 and ’06), with a championship in the latter year. A private, introverted person who shunned endorsement deals, he didn’t have to shoulder the burden of being a franchise savior, but as the toll of his max-effort play caught up to him in the form of chronic shoulder and back woes, he clashed with manager Tony La Russa and again found himself looking for the exit. After a brief detour to Toronto, he landed in Cincinnati, where again he provided the missing piece, helping the Reds return to the postseason for the first time in 15 years. Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers are a rebuilding team with a plethora of promising pitching prospects. As of a few weeks ago, they also have a director of pitching development and strategies, and a coordinator of player development analytics. Each is a new position within the organization, and both are a step in the right direction. Dan Hubbs was hired to fill the first of those roles, Jordan Wergiles the last.

Who are Hubbs and Wergiles, and what will be their primary responsibilities? I asked those questions to Al Avila during the recently completed GM Meetings.

“Dan came from the University of Southern California, where he was the head baseball coach,” answered Avila. “Before that he was the pitching coach there for 12 years. He comes with a good knowledge of the technology that’s being used now. He understands the analytics that can help a pitcher get better. Basically, his challenge is to set up our pitching system.”

Addressing Wergiles — a recent Wake Forest University graduate who’d been interning for the Tigers — Avila spoke of the organization’s attempts to keep up with an ever-changing game.

“There are obviously some things that your average instructor, or pitching coach… those guys aren’t analysts,” said the GM. “Those guys don’t work with numbers. They work with human beings, so it’s more of, ‘Hey, here is what the numbers are telling us about this pitcher.’ [Wergiles] can be deciphering that to the coaches, so that they can make those adjustments with the pitchers.”

Requests to speak to Wergiles and Hubbs about their new roles were declined by the Tigers. Read the rest of this entry »