Running Up Pitch Counts Won’t Be Enough to Beat Washington’s Aces

The Houston Astros’ plan against Max Scherzer in Tuesday’s Game 1 of the World Series was as obvious as it was predictable: Work deep into the count against Washington’s ace, see as many pitches as you can, and get him into high-stress situations early and often enough to tire him out before he can pitch deep into the game. In that respect, the plan worked. Scherzer threw 112 pitches in five innings, and Nationals manager Davey Martinez was forced to pull him from the game with four innings standing between his team and a series-opening victory. On the other hand, Scherzer only allowed two runs in those five innings, and the Nationals won the game, 5-4.

While Houston saw a lot of pitches, that didn’t translate into positive results in deep counts. The Astros got to nine 3-2 counts against Scherzer, and they went 0-for-6 with three walks in those plate appearances. Waiting Scherzer out didn’t favor the Astros as much as they hoped it would. And against tonight’s Nationals starter, the results could be even worse.

The game plan Houston executed against Scherzer on Tuesday was unsurprising because of how comfortable its lineup is in deep counts. The team had 913 PAs get to 3-2 counts during the regular season, which placed them at only 12th-most in baseball. When they got there, however, they thrived. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 6 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.

Below are ballots for three of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of interesting relievers, some of whom had good seasons, others of whom dealt with injury or diminished effectiveness. Also, Drew Pomeranz. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.


Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 5 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.

Below are ballots for three of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders who, unlike some of the players on various of our previous ballots, are understood to range from Good to Very Good. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.


A Pair of World Series Homers Puts the Nationals on the Right Track

In 1911, the city of Houston finished construction on a $5 million train station that overshot its original budget by $4 million. The city had been so jacked up to build this thing that they had swatted the home of a former Houston mayor and a prominent synagogue out of the way to get it up.

When people had grown bored and disgusted by trains in the mid-70s, Union Station was abandoned for a shiny new Amtrak facility. But instead of knocking it down or blowing it up, as the city had done with the buildings that had been in Union Station’s way initially, it was granted immortality by the National Park Service on the National Register of Historic Places.

When the Astros started muttering about getting a new stadium in 1995, and were actually threatening to leave Houston and become the new Washington franchise against which they are currently playing in the World Series, it was eventually determined that Union Station would make the perfect starting point for construction of their new facility.

Given the historic choo-choo depot that now serves as its main concourse, it makes sense that Minute Maid Park would incorporate a train into the ballpark’s home run celebrations. The train is piloted at 2.5 mph but still has an emergency brake, just in case of a horrifying accident occurring at a speed that many doctors consider an ideal pace for walking.

Juan Soto, who you may have heard is only 20 years old and already has three home runs in the postseason, went up to meet that train last night, bashing a home run to a part of Minute Maid Park where baseballs aren’t supposed to go. In the top of the fourth inning, he sent a Gerrit Cole fastball onto the unlit track of the silent Astros train, and the two inanimate objects became a pair of unwitting companions for the remainder of the game.

Read the rest of this entry »


Nationals Beat Astros 5-4, and Baseball Saves Baseball

It’s been a great postseason. But…

Baseball fans have been treated to an excellent month of ballgames. The NL Wildcard was an instant classic, and three matchups in the divisional round went the distance. Washington pitched historically well in the NCLS, and on the other side of the bracket, two of the best teams in baseball battled in an entertaining war of attrition, a back and forth set that climaxed with José Altuve’s walk-off homer in Game 6. Thus far, we’ve been spoiled.

But you’d be forgiven for thinking it hasn’t felt that way. As baseball reaches its annual crescendo, the sport’s collective focus has often drifted away from the games on the field. The partial un-juicing of the ball emerged as a dominant storyline early in the postseason, right alongside the usual complaints about extended commercial breaks and out-of-touch announcers blathering on far-flung networks. Then, as the league championships kicked off, ESPN’s T.J. Quinn released a disturbing piece detailing how Angels team employees not only failed to intervene on Tyler Skaggs‘ drug use but actually abetted it in his final days. Reading the news, you may well conclude that the league itself has lost the ability to sway the narrative in a way that reflects positively on the enterprise.

Unfortunately, the pattern continued; Game 1 of the World Series began under a cloud of a different sort. In the aftermath of Houston’s dramatic, exuberant ALCS win over the Yankees, assistant general manager Brandon Taubman used the occasion to rub salt in a wound. With three women reporters standing nearby, Taubman, cigar in hand, loudly and repeatedly directed a message their way: “Thank God we got Osuna! I’m so [expletive] glad we got Osuna!”

On the surface, it’s a curious message: Altuve only had to save the day because closer Roberto Osuna had coughed up a ninth-inning lead. The context, however, is damning. Osuna is only an Astro because the club was able to acquire him on the cheap while he served a suspension for domestic violence. One of the women in question has previously come under fire from Taubman for the timing of her Osuna-related tweets. That she was wearing a purple anti-domestic violence bracelet at the time adds a jolt of nastiness to already reprehensible behavior.

By now you know the details of what followed. How Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein reported the news; that Houston vehemently denied the incident took place, and questioned Apstein’s credibility, when multiple other journalists from other outlets corroborated Apstein’s account; and the Astros’ late and inadequate walk-back of their initial statement. On a day when we should have been celebrating the best of baseball, hyping up Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer, we were instead left to grapple with the worst symptoms of its culture. As the Washington Post’s Barry Svulga succinctly summed it up: “It’s infuriating it’s 2019, and it’s the World Series, and we even need to be having this conversation. But clearly we do.”

In the end, baseball itself rescued the day. It wasn’t so much that a great game made us forget all that transpired in the previous 48 hours — as if anyone with a Twitter feed possibly could have anyway. No, a game cannot simply toss us an escape rope, and we shouldn’t want to move on so soon: Three women were wronged in an incident symptomatic of a broader problem; basic decency demands that we ask baseball to better itself.

What a game can do is remind us why we care in the first place, why we’re bothering with reading and listening and talking about these problems within baseball’s ecosystem instead of anywhere else. For all that was wrong in the last few days, baseball reminded us of its virtues, of why we choose to spend our leisure time in this imperfect space. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Toronto Blue Jays Internships

Please note, this posting contains multiple positions. All positions are paid.

The Toronto Blue Jays are seeking highly motivated and creative interns to assist with day-to-day tasks within various areas of their broader Baseball and High Performance operations. The start and end dates are flexible depending on candidate availability and both full-season and partial-season candidates will be considered. This position will be based in Toronto, ON or Dunedin, FL. There are several different internship focuses (in the areas of Research and Development, Scouting, Player Development, Biomechanics & Computer Vision, and Baseball Systems Development), with more detail on each position provided below. Across all internships, the Blue Jays are seeking:

  • Demonstrated passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
  • Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals including members of the front office, field staff and scouts. Ability to speak Spanish is a strong plus.
  • Baseball/softball playing background or related work experience with a pro/college team is a strong plus, although not required.
  • Demonstrated ability to work independently and self-direct work.
  • The ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball calendar.

For each application, please send a resume and cover letter to baseballresumes@bluejays.com. Please provide the position to which you are applying at the subject line, and include answers to the below question as well as the targeted question for each position in the body of your email. All answers should be limited to one paragraph:

  • Please describe a group project you have completed in a professional, educational, or other capacity. What was the goal, and who were you working with? How did your team progress, and what obstacles did you encounter?

Position: Research & Development Intern

Scope:

  • Assist the Research & Development Department with baseball research as well as developing new metrics and tools to help with Baseball Operation decision making.
  • Improve current production models and utilize novel modeling techniques to make better use of available and future data sets
  • Challenge our current way thinking and provide input on both short-term and long-term projects.
  • Contribute to ad hoc analysis of Amateur, Major, and Minor League Players
  • Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

  • Proficiency with R, Python or other similar mathematical language
  • Proficiency with SQL and relational databases
  • Demonstrated ability to design and execute baseball research projects is a plus
  • Experience with advanced modeling methods, including generalized linear models, mixed models, clustering, or other forms of machine learning is a plus. Experience evaluating and selecting models is also a plus

Question:
What is one question about baseball that you would like to answer, given the time and datasets necessary? What techniques might you employ to answer this question? What obstacles do you foresee?

Position: Scouting Intern

Scope:

  • Assist the Amateur Scouting Department with the preparation for the Rule 4 Draft, including assistance with player evaluation, information processing, and staying abreast of the current amateur landscape.
  • Support the Pro Scouting Department with periodic coverage related tasks and daily tasks, including maintaining lists of opposing team prospects, providing information on opposing team needs and having an understanding of ML player trends
  • Provide support for Baseball Operations meetings and player transaction decisions.
  • Support Minor League Operations/Player Development with their daily operations, such as processing expense reports, updating team rosters, compiling statistics and scouting reports, etc.
  • Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

  • Knowledge of and passion for baseball operations processes
  • Experience with in-person and/or video scouting is a plus
  • Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is required. Further technical skills (SQL, R, etc.) are a plus but not required.

Question:
What do you see as a current inefficiency with the way in which baseball is run? Is there any opportunity for teams in this area, and if so, how would you take advantage?

Position: Player Development Intern

Scope:

  • Assist Player Development team and coaching staffs with data entry of game reports, player plan administration, and organizational projects.
  • Collaborate with Player Development & High Performance staffs to optimize processes across the organization.
  • Provide logistical support for Minor League Spring Training and off-season programs as it relates to scheduling, workflow, travel, baseball-related activities, etc.
  • Support Research & Development staff with ad hoc analysis and the continual improvement of the tools and metrics that we provide to assist Player Development & High Performance.
  • Assist on-field staff with incorporating new technologies and data into development plans.

Requirements:

  • Strong administrative skills to understand the various processes required by each department and ensure that they are followed.
  • Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is required. Further technical skills (SQL, R, etc.) are a plus but not required.

Questions:

  • How can teams separate themselves through player development?
  • Are there any specific examples of processes that organizations have currently implemented that would allow a team to best assist players and staff?
  • What are two impactful ideas that you think would take the Toronto Blue Jays Player Development team to the next level?

Position: Baseball Systems Development Intern

Scope:

  • Create new and/or support existing baseball systems through data visualization, display, and web application development
  • Support Data Engineering team in the acquisition, ingestion, and cleaning of new and existing data sources
  • Communicate with end users to gather system requirements and work through bug fixes
  • Provide logistical support to major events on the Baseball Operations calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.)

Requirements:

  • Enrollment in or completion of a degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or similar field is preferred
  • Experience with both front and back-end development is preferred
  • Examples of data-oriented web development work is preferred

Question:
Please describe a web development or data-oriented project you have worked on (does not need to be baseball related; links to demo or source code welcomed). What did you learn while completing this project? How could you foresee applying these skills in a baseball capacity?

Position: Biomechanical Analysis & Computer Vision Intern

Scope:

  • Contribute to internal research of baseball movements by collaborating with Baseball Operations, Player Development, and High Performance teams.
  • Coordinate and collaborate with on-field staff on the collection of data
  • Utilize cutting-edge modelling techniques (OpenCV, RANSAC, CNNs, etc) to provide insights from video resources
  • Analyze a variety of biomechanical and related baseball information streams. Responsibilities include, but are not limited to, ensuring data quality, providing meaningful takeaways, and developing best practices.
  • Clearly and concisely communicate results through both written reports and data visualization
  • Research and present on new technologies and methods to push our computer vision and/or biomechanics programs forward

Requirements:

  • Enrollment in or completion of a degree program in Biomechanics, Physics, Computer Science or a similarly relevant field is required.
  • Proficiency with R, Python or other similar mathematical language
  • Proficiency with SQL and relational databases
  • Experience with frameworks such as Tensorflow or PyTorch is a plus
  • Experience working with large spatial and biomechanical datasets
  • Experience and passion for working with markerless motion capture systems is strongly preferred

Question:
Please describe a baseball question you’d like to answer. What methodologies would you use to try answer this question?

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.


World Series Game 1 Chat

8:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And here we are as the clock strikes 8.

8:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not that I have an actual clock anymore.

8:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not even my grandfather clock because my grandfather did not have one.

8:01
JKD: Hey I’m a Nats fan and I listened to Sam and Ben today and now I’m sad about baseball at the time when I’m most happy about baseball which makes me sad about baseball. Thanks I’ll hang up and take my answer off the air.

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DAN IS NOT SMART ENOUGH TO IDENTIFY THE QUESTION

8:01
kevinthecomic: If this series comes down to managerial decisions, who wins?

Read the rest of this entry »


Astros’ Advantage Against Breaking Balls Could Be Key

Strong pitching — aided, perhaps, by a less lively baseball — has been the predominant story of this postseason, and given the pair of rotations lined up for the the World Series, it may well continue to be. The Nationals’ Max Scherzer and the Astros’ Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke own five Cy Young awards between them, and all are likely bound for the Hall of Fame someday. If Verlander doesn’t win this year’s AL Cy Young award, teammate Gerrit Cole quite likely will, and both Scherzer and his teammate Stephen Strasburg are contenders for the NL award (though they may take a back seat to Jacob deGrom). Oh, and if that’s not enough talent, the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin, who signed last winter’s largest free agent contract, and Aníbal Sánchez, who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of the NLCS opener against the Cardinals, are here as well. As Craig Edwards wrote, this is one of the greatest pairings of rotations for the Fall Classic since at least 1947.

With that out of the way, a few additional thoughts about pitching, starting and otherwise, as Game 1 approaches.

Breaking Stuff Could Be the Key

As with the ALCS against the Yankees, the Astros appear to have an edge on the Nationals when it comes to matching up against certain pitch types. In terms of pitchers’ wOBAs allowed, the two teams are actually very close except for one pitch type:

Pitcher wOBA Allowed by Pitch Type
Pitch FF FF 95+ FT/SI CU SL CH
Astros .346 .298 .343 .257 .221 .252
Nationals .349 .295 .374 .267 .237 .241
MLB Avg .359 .324 .361 .281 .278 .290
SOURCE: Baseball Savant

This will be a series of hellacious sliders, given that the Astros and Nationals ranked first and second in terms of lowest wOBAs allowed on the pitch; good luck hitting those of Verlander (.164, the majors’ lowest mark), Scherzer (.169, second-lowest), Corbin (.202, sixth-lowest), or Cole (.224, 13th-lowest). Likewise, the Nationals had the majors’ second-lowest mark and the Astros the fourth-lowest on changeups, with Strasburg (an MLB-low .190), Greinke (.224, fifth-lowest), Sánchez (.271, 23rd-lowest), and Scherzer (.286, 28th-lowest) the ones to watch out for. Greinke was the majors’ best when it came to curves (.179), with Strasburg (.202, fifth) and Verlander (.222, sixth) near the head of the class. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 4 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.

Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.


Contract Crowdsourcing 2019-20: Ballot 3 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project this offseason, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2019-20 free-agent market.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a collection of infield/utility types. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. Projected WAR figures from final the update of the 2019 Steamer forecast.