Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a bat in front of home plate that deflected a ball, the José Ramírez resurgence, the base stealer in a Statcast ad, an Andrelton Simmons shift that wasn’t, the Atlantic League, a viral Oliver Drake pitch, and a misguided (and unguided) bunt by Fernando Tatís, Jr., then discuss what a wild card is worth, how hard teams should pursue a spot in the play-in game, and what this year’s trade deadline will look like. Lastly (55:40), Ben talks to Rangers outfielder/DH and four-time all-star Hunter Pence about how and why he reinvented his swing, working with swing whisperer Doug Latta, playing in the Dominican Republic, and recent improvements in pitching and player development.

Audio intro: Peter Matthew Bauer, "Wild Light"
Audio interstitial: Everclear, "The Swing"
Audio outro: Laura Marling, "Master Hunter"

Link to GIF of bat deflection
Link to Sam on bat dropping
Link to picture of supposed Simmons shift
Link to Sam on the breakdown of traditional defense
Link to viral Drake splitter
Link to non-viral Drake splitter 1
Link to non-viral Drake splitter 2
Link to teaser for The Pence Method
Link to story on The Pence Method
Link to Ben on the trade deadline
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Below you’ll find a roundup of notable moves from the past few days, as well as future expected moves and a Minor League Report, which includes a list of recent major league debuts, top prospect promotions, and a few players who are “knocking down the door” to the majors (most Mondays). For this column, any lineup regulars, starting pitchers, or late-inning relievers are considered “notable,” meaning that middle relievers, long relievers, and bench players are excluded. You can always find a full list of updated transactions here.

Lineup Regulars

Houston Astros
7/22/19: INF Aledmys Diaz activated from 10-Day IL.
7/20/19: INF/OF Tyler White designated for assignment.

The 28-year-old White had an .888 OPS with 12 homers in 237 plate appearances in 2018, which is a big reason why the Astros were extremely patient with him despite having so many other players deserving of at-bats. But with Diaz activated from the injured list today, Carlos Correa close to returning, and Kyle Tucker and Joshua Rojas pushing for big league promotions, White finally ran out of time to show he could turn things around.

Roster Resource

Read the rest of this entry »

Since June 1, the Oakland A’s have been one of the best teams in baseball, pushing themselves into the middle of the American League Wild Card race. But across the Bay, there’s been a team that’s been even better recently.

Since July 1, the Giants have posted the best record in baseball. They’ve lost just three games this month and have managed to claw their way back to .500 with an extra-innings, walk-off win over the Mets yesterday afternoon. That win clinched a four-game series that included two other extra-innings, walk-off wins. Sixteen games ago, the Giants were 10 games below .500 and possessed the second-worst record in the National League. They’re now tied for second in the NL West — though 16 games behind the Dodgers — and just 2 and 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for a club that looked like it was going nowhere less than a month ago. With a week and a half left until the trade deadline, the Giants suddenly face a tough decision about their mindset for the rest of the season. Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith have been continuously connected to trade rumors since this past offseason, but now that the team finds itself on the cusp of contention, they might not be as available as previously thought. This is how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi put it in an interview with Giants beat writer Henry Schulman on July 21:

“It’s just very difficult at this point to speak in black-and-white terms. We’re really in a period of transition in this organization. When you can manage a transition and continue to compete, and continue to keep a fan base as loyal as this one energized and excited about the team, that’s obviously the perfect scenario.”

The expectations were understandably low heading into this season. After a couple of ugly seasons in 2017 and 2018, the Giants were clearly looking to reset when they hired Zaidi this winter. In February, longtime manager Bruce Bochy announced that he would be retiring following this season. Just a handful of players remain from the teams that won three World Series in five years earlier this decade, and many of their contracts are expiring soon. Despite that, over the last several weeks, they’ve managed to stumble into the perfect scenario Zaidi laid out above. Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to replacement level, first base is a very different beast than catcher. In general, teams prioritize catcher defense and staff handling over offense, and even in this age of advanced analytics, there’s room to quibble over whether the available metrics — including the pitch-framing sort — capture enough of their value. As we lack a good staff-handling metric (catcher ERA remains inadequate due to sample-size issues), there’s a whole gray area that, among other things, allows teams, particularly contending ones, to convince themselves they’re getting enough value behind the plate.

First base is another story. Offense is comparatively easy to measure, and the expectations for the position are high. A contending team that lacks a heavy hitter at the spot, or at least an adequate one, is bringing a spork to a knife fight. At this end of the defensive spectrum, it shouldn’t be that hard to find alternatives, even if they possess relatively clunky gloves; in this day of shortened benches, you can generally find a utilityman to fill in defensively at first in the late innings. Particularly with so many teams within range of a Wild Card spot, the upgrades available as the July 31 deadline approaches make for some fairly slim pickings, and so some teams may prefer to shuffle through internal options.

Among contenders (which, for this series, I’ve defined as teams who are above .500 or have playoff odds of at least 10.0%, a definition that currently covers 18 teams), seven have gotten less than 1.0 WAR at the position thus far. Again, a closer look at each situation suggests that not all of them will be in the market for external solutions. Between early-season injuries and slow-starting veterans, some of these teams aren’t in as dire a shape as their overall numbers suggest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re out of the woods. Note that I’m skipping over the Yankees, for whom an 0-for-4 from Luke Voit on Sunday was the difference between slipping below the threshold or clearing it. Read the rest of this entry »

12:05

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has begun.

12:07

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t going to address this, but there are a *lot* of questions and comments on the topic, so I’m going to make a quick comment and then no more on the subject.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: Jonah Keri is someone who I’ve known for a long time and the allegations are as completely and utterly shocking to me as to anyone else.

12:09

Dan Szymborski: His alleged conduct is frighteningly awful and I hope the justice system works as it is supposed to.

12:10

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has backed off that somewhat – remember these are preseason runs.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. And yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement Level Killers. It’s a concept I’ve revisited on several occasions, both at BP and beyond; last year, I brought it to FanGraphs in an expanded format. With the July 31 trade deadline looming, it’s once again time to point out some of the bigger holes at each position among contenders, and it’s worth noting that this time, there’s no August waiver period for teams to fall back on.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t be slaves to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 1.0 WAR from a position to this point might be considered fair game, even if in some cases that means an above-average starter and ghastly backups. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which, of course may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes, a team may be well ahead of replacement level, but has lost a key contributor due to injury; sometimes, the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hard-core pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »

In an interview with Great Big Story, Kerry Maher, a Youngsan University professor and Lotte Giants superfan, described the difference between Major League Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) fan atmospheres like this: “To me, MLB is like an opera and the Lotte Giants in the Sajik [Stadium] is rock ‘n’ roll.” For those who have experienced sitting in the stands of both leagues’ ballparks, it probably seems like an apt comparison.

If you’ve followed my work, you’re likely aware of the KBO’s cheering culture. As I wrote when I interviewed several foreign-born players currently playing in the KBO, the league’s fan experience can strike those who aren’t from Korea as somewhat unusual compared to the quieter crowds of MLB. For starters, each KBO team has their own cheermaster and cheerleaders. Last week, I went over to the Incheon SK Munhak Stadium to talk to the SK Wyverns’ cheermaster and three of their cheerleaders. Read the rest of this entry »

A few bumpy outings aside, Shaun Anderson has had a solid rookie season with the San Francisco Giants. Since debuting in mid-May, the 24-year-old right-hander has won three of five decisions, and on six occasions he’s gone at least five innings while allowing just a pair of runs. Overall, he has a 4.87 ERA and a 4.37 FIP in 12 starts.

Anderson is comfortable on a big stage. He pitched in the College World Series while at the University of Florida, and last summer he took the mound in the All-Star Futures Game. The former Gator came into this year ranked eighth on our Giants Top Prospects list.

He was originally Red Sox property. A third-round pick in 2016, Anderson was shipped to San Francisco thirteen months later, along with now-19-year-old righty Gregory Santos, in exchange for Eduardo Nunez. The days-before-the-trade-deadline deal brought Boston a player who helped them win a World Series — Nunez has since been DFA’d — while San Francisco got an up-and-comer who doesn’t fit a conventional mold.

College relievers rarely become big-league starters, and this is an era where pitchers typically pump gas and miss a lot of bats. Anderson is an anomaly in both respects. The erstwhile closer has a pedestrian 92/93mph heater, and he’s punching out just 5.7 batters per nine innings.

Asked about his approach, Anderson described it as “attack.” Undaunted by big-league hitters in the box, he’s all about mixing and matching, and working down in the zone. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the podcast’s seventh birthday, the end of an impressive streak by the Twins, what to think of Aaron Boone‘s tirade against rookie umpire Brennan Miller (and Brett Gardner’s odd dugout anger), Mike Trout and the FanGraphs Trade Value series, an Atlantic League player revolt, and five trends taking over the game, including the shift, relievers, and fewer fastballs.

Audio intro: Destroyer, "Savage Night at the Opera"
Audio outro: John Mellencamp, "I’m Not Running Anymore"

Link to Boone/Gardner video
Link to Lindsey Adler on the players’ reaction to Boone
Link to Marc Carig on Boone’s reputation
Link to Trade Value top 10
Link to Meg/Kiley Trade Value podcast
Link to Atlantic League video
Link to Ben’s trends piece
Link to Ben’s bullpenning piece
Link to Sam’s flames piece
Link to Sam’s piece on the first pitches of games
Link to order The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

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