Even before it began, the 2019 season seemed poised to become the year of the rookie hitter. That seems true every year nowadays, but it seemed especially so this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. had a ton of anticipation surrounding their debuts, but there were other big names ready to introduce themselves as well. Eloy Jimenez was about to unleash his prodigious power upon the big leagues for the first time, Victor Robles was embarking on his first full season of showing off his game-changing speed in the majors, and Nick Senzel was going to finally try to put his injury problems behind him and show why he was the second overall draft choice in 2017. National prospect lists consistently laid out the excitement surrounding the next generation of great hitters, with our own Top 100 list featuring nine hitters in the top 10 prospects, and 17 in the top 20 (along with one two-way player).

Nearly two-thirds of the way through the season, many of those rookie hitters have shown the potential to carry the weight of a franchise on their shoulders. Unfortunately, most play for teams that won’t be challenging for postseason spots this season, so they will have to wait their turn to show off their talents in important fall baseball games. Others are playing on teams that will certainly be around in October, but they play at a spot that their organization was already doing quite well with. This piece isn’t about one of those guys, though. We’re here to talk about someone I think means more to his team’s postseason hopes than any other rookie in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a sentence that I didn’t think I’d be writing in 2019: Andrew Miller has accumulated -0.2 WAR this season. By FanGraphs’ version of WAR, he’s been less valuable than a replacement-level reliever. Here’s another sentence that makes a little more sense, but is at odds with the one I just wrote: Andrew Miller might be the Cardinals’ best reliever. Now, reliever performance is volatile and all, but we’re going to need an explanation. How can those two things be true at once?

Let’s start with Miller being below replacement level, because that would have been a surprising assertion before the year. Andrew Miller has faced 139 batters this season. He’s allowed eight home runs. 6% of his plate appearances have ended with the opposing batter trotting around the bases. That surely already sounds like a ton — indeed, Miller is second in the majors in home runs allowed per nine innings, behind only Josh Osich. You don’t need a sabermetric writer to tell you that’s bad.

As bad as 2.2 home runs per nine innings sounds, though, it might be underselling how wild Miller’s season has been on the home run front. Josh Osich is a great example of the kind of pitcher who normally leads the league in home runs allowed per nine. He’s a pitch-to-contact depth reliever who works by letting opponents put the ball in play and counting on his defense to make plays behind him. Now, that strategy mostly hasn’t worked — Osich has a career ERA of 5.11, and his FIP is 5.31, so it’s not as though he’s just been getting unlucky. Still, while Osich is homer-prone, he’s mostly just contact-prone, with the home runs a cost of doing business. Strike out only 19% of the batters you face, and there will be plenty of opportunities to give up home runs.

Andrew Miller’s case of the dingers isn’t like that at all. Miller is actually one of the least contact-prone pitchers in all of baseball this year. Only 51% of the batters he has faced have put the ball in play. That severely limits the opportunities they have to hit home runs. Osich, for comparison’s sake, has let 75% of batters put the ball in play. Miller is giving up home runs at a truly alarming rate considering how few opportunities he gives batters to put a ball in play. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

While defensive concerns generally outweigh offensive ones when it comes to second basemen, it nonetheless rates as a surprise that the position’s denizens are producing just a 90 wRC+, their lowest in the period covered by our splits (since 2002) and the lowest of any position this year save for catcher. After all, in 2016, the group reached its high-water mark for the period with a 106 wRC+. Even as teams have squeezed offense-minded players like Mike Moustakas and Max Muncy into the keystone, the collapses of several formerly solid second-sackers — Robinson Cano, Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Kolten Wong, and many others mentioned below — have eroded the overall production here, as have the shifts of Daniel Murphy and Neil Walker to first base and the possibly career-ending knee woes of Dustin Pedroia. Perhaps that’s the point; the core of players that shined in 2016 has aged, and as Baseball Prospectus’ Aaron Gleeman suggested last month, it may just be a changing-of-the-guard moment.

Among contenders (which, for this series, I’ve defined as teams who are above .500 or have playoff odds of at least 10.0%, a definition that currently covers 17 teams), five have gotten less than 1.0 WAR at the position thus far. I’m including a sixth here, since we’ve had a bit of a reshuffle since I began writing the series: the Giants have won nine out of 10 and 16 out of 19 to climb to 51-50, while the Rangers have lost eight straight to fall to 50-50, that after I’d already written their entry, and I’m not making two stops. As at the other positions I’ve examined thus far, a closer look suggests that some of these teams are likely to remain in-house while shuffling through potential solutions rather than make a deal before July 31, but given the finality of this year’s deadline, this is an exercise worth doing at this juncture nonetheless.

Read the rest of this entry »

Going into the trade deadline last year, I put on my Dictator of MLB hat and made some trade deadline moves of my own. Upon further review, it turned out that my declarations while wearing a magical, virtual hat were not binding on any team; I was unable to force those trades to actually happen. While I have not obtained the desired legal authority over the last calendar year, it was a fun exercise, so I am reviving it ahead of next week’s deadline.

The basic rules are simple. I can’t guarantee that every trade will be thought of as fair by every reader — indeed, I can guarantee the opposite — but I did make a real effort to at least construct trades that were plausible. That is, except for the very last section, where I am explicitly trying to make wild trades, spitballing how a team could pull off a trade that ought to be impossible.

The Milwaukee Brewers acquire P Marcus Stroman from the Toronto Blue Jays for SS Mauricio Dubon, OF Trent Grisham, P Aaron Ashby, and 2B Travis Shaw

Brandon Woodruff’s injury throws a monkey wrench into the works for the Brewers, and with one of the weaker rotations among first-tier playoff contenders, something’s gotta give. While Stroman has expressed a desire to go to the Yankees, the Brewers ought to have more motivation, unless James Paxton is secretly injured. Brice Turang is the shortstop horse to bet on in the Brewers system, and Dubon is sufficiently close to the majors to tempt the Blue Jays, who have seemed to prefer near-major league ready prospects for reasons that elude me. Grisham would give Toronto a near-future bat who is increasingly intriguing, and Ashby would fulfill the team’s need to have every player in the minor league system related to a former major leaguer. Shaw isn’t here to actually add much, but instead to give Toronto an opportunity to rehab his value, and clear the way for Keston Hiura for good. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Nick Kingham, Mark Prior, and Adam Wainwright — on how they learned and developed their curveballs.

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Nick Kingham, Toronto Blue Jays

“I’ve been throwing a curveball since ninth grade, or maybe around 13 years old. I guess my dad originally taught it to me. But I never really had a good one. I threw a one-finger curveball for a little while. It was like a suitcase, you know? It kind of just spun and slowed down, and gravity would take it. Then someone told me to try spiking my finger. I’ve been throwing it that way ever since, probably for the last 15 years.

“It’s a standard spike. This is the horseshoe, the tracks go this way, and it’s right on there. Spike it up. There’s nothing… actually, I dig my nail into it. I set my index finger there and make sure that it has enough pressure. That’s comfortable to me. I like to have a secure grip on the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a bat in front of home plate that deflected a ball, the José Ramírez resurgence, the base stealer in a Statcast ad, an Andrelton Simmons shift that wasn’t, the Atlantic League, a viral Oliver Drake pitch, and a misguided (and unguided) bunt by Fernando Tatís, Jr., then discuss what a wild card is worth, how hard teams should pursue a spot in the play-in game, and what this year’s trade deadline will look like. Lastly (55:40), Ben talks to Rangers outfielder/DH and four-time all-star Hunter Pence about how and why he reinvented his swing, working with swing whisperer Doug Latta, playing in the Dominican Republic, and recent improvements in pitching and player development.

Audio intro: Peter Matthew Bauer, "Wild Light"
Audio interstitial: Everclear, "The Swing"
Audio outro: Laura Marling, "Master Hunter"

Link to GIF of bat deflection
Link to Sam on bat dropping
Link to picture of supposed Simmons shift
Link to Sam on the breakdown of traditional defense
Link to viral Drake splitter
Link to non-viral Drake splitter 1
Link to non-viral Drake splitter 2
Link to teaser for The Pence Method
Link to story on The Pence Method
Link to Ben on the trade deadline
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Below you’ll find a roundup of notable moves from the past few days, as well as future expected moves and a Minor League Report, which includes a list of recent major league debuts, top prospect promotions, and a few players who are “knocking down the door” to the majors (most Mondays). For this column, any lineup regulars, starting pitchers, or late-inning relievers are considered “notable,” meaning that middle relievers, long relievers, and bench players are excluded. You can always find a full list of updated transactions here.

Lineup Regulars

Houston Astros
7/22/19: INF Aledmys Diaz activated from 10-Day IL.
7/20/19: INF/OF Tyler White designated for assignment.

The 28-year-old White had an .888 OPS with 12 homers in 237 plate appearances in 2018, which is a big reason why the Astros were extremely patient with him despite having so many other players deserving of at-bats. But with Diaz activated from the injured list today, Carlos Correa close to returning, and Kyle Tucker and Joshua Rojas pushing for big league promotions, White finally ran out of time to show he could turn things around.

Roster Resource

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Since June 1, the Oakland A’s have been one of the best teams in baseball, pushing themselves into the middle of the American League Wild Card race. But across the Bay, there’s been a team that’s been even better recently.

Since July 1, the Giants have posted the best record in baseball. They’ve lost just three games this month and have managed to claw their way back to .500 with an extra-innings, walk-off win over the Mets yesterday afternoon. That win clinched a four-game series that included two other extra-innings, walk-off wins. Sixteen games ago, the Giants were 10 games below .500 and possessed the second-worst record in the National League. They’re now tied for second in the NL West — though 16 games behind the Dodgers — and just 2 and 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race.

It’s been a remarkable turnaround for a club that looked like it was going nowhere less than a month ago. With a week and a half left until the trade deadline, the Giants suddenly face a tough decision about their mindset for the rest of the season. Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith have been continuously connected to trade rumors since this past offseason, but now that the team finds itself on the cusp of contention, they might not be as available as previously thought. This is how president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi put it in an interview with Giants beat writer Henry Schulman on July 21:

“It’s just very difficult at this point to speak in black-and-white terms. We’re really in a period of transition in this organization. When you can manage a transition and continue to compete, and continue to keep a fan base as loyal as this one energized and excited about the team, that’s obviously the perfect scenario.”

The expectations were understandably low heading into this season. After a couple of ugly seasons in 2017 and 2018, the Giants were clearly looking to reset when they hired Zaidi this winter. In February, longtime manager Bruce Bochy announced that he would be retiring following this season. Just a handful of players remain from the teams that won three World Series in five years earlier this decade, and many of their contracts are expiring soon. Despite that, over the last several weeks, they’ve managed to stumble into the perfect scenario Zaidi laid out above. Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to replacement level, first base is a very different beast than catcher. In general, teams prioritize catcher defense and staff handling over offense, and even in this age of advanced analytics, there’s room to quibble over whether the available metrics — including the pitch-framing sort — capture enough of their value. As we lack a good staff-handling metric (catcher ERA remains inadequate due to sample-size issues), there’s a whole gray area that, among other things, allows teams, particularly contending ones, to convince themselves they’re getting enough value behind the plate.

First base is another story. Offense is comparatively easy to measure, and the expectations for the position are high. A contending team that lacks a heavy hitter at the spot, or at least an adequate one, is bringing a spork to a knife fight. At this end of the defensive spectrum, it shouldn’t be that hard to find alternatives, even if they possess relatively clunky gloves; in this day of shortened benches, you can generally find a utilityman to fill in defensively at first in the late innings. Particularly with so many teams within range of a Wild Card spot, the upgrades available as the July 31 deadline approaches make for some fairly slim pickings, and so some teams may prefer to shuffle through internal options.

Among contenders (which, for this series, I’ve defined as teams who are above .500 or have playoff odds of at least 10.0%, a definition that currently covers 18 teams), seven have gotten less than 1.0 WAR at the position thus far. Again, a closer look at each situation suggests that not all of them will be in the market for external solutions. Between early-season injuries and slow-starting veterans, some of these teams aren’t in as dire a shape as their overall numbers suggest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re out of the woods. Note that I’m skipping over the Yankees, for whom an 0-for-4 from Luke Voit on Sunday was the difference between slipping below the threshold or clearing it. Read the rest of this entry »