Archive for 2026 Trade Deadline

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above.

For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2027-2031, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money (exclusive of any signing bonus), if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2031 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons, or has a player or vesting option). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2025 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point. Read the rest of this entry »

The concept of trade likely predates written history. If one person has a thing, and another person has a different thing, you better believe that they’re both thinking about whether they’d be better off by swapping those things. That means that the concept of value is almost as old; if things can be swapped, then it’s important to rank them so that you don’t make a bad deal and end up with something worse than what you started with. In other words, trade value lists are one of the things we humans have done the longest. Or at least, that’s what I like to tell myself to feel better when it’s 11:47 PM and I’m wondering whether I’d rather have four years of a shortstop or three years of a mid-rotation starter.

Welcome to the 2026 FanGraphs Trade Value Series. Starting today and continuing through the end of the week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract details into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this list before; this is my fifth year doing it on my own.

Of course, I really ought to put “on my own” in quotation marks. I start building this list by gathering every input I can think of. Age, contract status, current statistics, projected future performance, Statcast data, pitch- and arsenal-level modeling, scouting reports – if it can be written down, I try to consider it in my first pass. I use all of those inputs to come up with an initial set of rankings, then refine those rankings by diving deeper into individual player comparisons. After I have things in relatively good order, I consult with the FanGraphs staff to clarify my thinking further and get new opinions on tough decisions. Everyone is a big help, but special thanks are due to Dan Szymborski for supplying the ZiPS projections, Sean Dolinar for his technical assistance, and Meg Rowley for patiently shepherding the project from a spreadsheet to the final product. Next, I reach out to sources on the team side. Here, I try to gather perspectives from organizations with different methodological leanings, budgets, goals, and places in the competitive cycle; basically, as many differing viewpoints as possible. Read the rest of this entry »

In years past, I’ve generally addressed the teams receiving less-than-acceptable production in one corner outfield spot or the other within the same post, but this year’s batch of right fielders is disproportionately large, mandating a separate entry that led me to combine the left and center field lists instead. There’s still some crossover between most teams’ pools of right fielders and the positions I covered in the previous post, with a couple teams from this group landing on both lists. As they look to upgrade, there’s some fluidity as well, with teams willing to test the defensive limitations of their outfielders in order to shoehorn better bats into the lineup.

While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included the club here because its performance is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »

Having gone around the horn during the first three entries of this series, it’s time to turn to the outfield. In a break from tradition, instead of looking at the teams with trouble at either corner in one fell swoop, this time I’m addressing the ones receiving less-than-acceptable production from their left and center fielders. Right fielders will get a standalone list in order to keep the length of these articles manageable. There’s still some crossover between today’s positions and their respective lists, with two contenders double-dipping.

While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I’ve also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance is worth a look.

As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly within the context of the rest of a team’s roster. The capsules are listed in order of their left field rankings first, while noting those crossover teams with an asterisk. As always, I don’t expect every team here to go out and track down upgrades before the August 3 trade deadline, but these are ones to keep an eye on. Read the rest of this entry »

The first deal of the 2026 trade deadline was interesting more than it was important.

On Wednesday, the Astros sent Lance McCullers Jr., Colton Gordon, and cash considerations to the Brewers in exchange for Jadyn Fielder, the son of Prince Fielder. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome described the deal as a “salary dump” for Houston, noting that owner Jim Crane convinced McCullers to waive his no-trade clause to help the team manage its budget and roster. The Brewers were happy to oblige, adding depth and taking on a new pitcher project, parting with the son of a franchise legend to do so.

The deal marks the end of an era in Houston. The Astros drafted McCullers 41st overall in 2012, the same year they took Carlos Correa first overall. He developed right alongside the Astros as they progressed from tankers to titans, often serving as an exemplar for their forward-thinking pitching strategy. Nobody threw a higher rate of curveballs (44%) from 2015 through 2018 than McCullers, even going so far as to throw 24 straight curveballs to close out a four-inning save in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, it’s another Killers two-fer, covering the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (Playoff Odds of at least 10%, a criterion that 22 of the 30 teams meet) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot merits a closer a look. All statistics are through July 12.

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Today, we have the first of several Killers two-fers, with a pair of lists covering the right side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (Playoff Odds of at least 10%, a criterion that 22 of the 30 teams meet) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot is worth a look. All statistics are through July 12.

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In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing meager production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement-level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is generally in the ballpark, though my final lists also incorporate our Depth Charts rest-of-season projections, which may nose them over the line. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it. Read the rest of this entry »