Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let’s begin our final pre-prospect list chat.

mark: Do you know if Anderson Espinoza has started throwing, and if so how he looks?

Eric A Longenhagen: He did not throw during Padres instructs. He may be throwing off a mound but, if he is, it’s private, so I don’t know how he looks.

Josh Nelson: Hey Eric. How do Luis Basabe and Luis Robert look so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: LouBob has been fine, Basabe has not been great.

mark: Do you guys have any planned draft coverage coming up?

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to today’s first chat of the long, dark offseason. I’m still catching my breath from an exhausting month and working on some stuff that has yet to see the light of day, including an ESPN-Plus piece on the Defensive Players of the Year, a piece on the passing of the great Willie McCovey, and my contributions to our Top 50 Free Agents list. The Jaffe-Span household is also battling various stages of a low-grade but stubborn cold, and all of the Haribo gummies left over from Halloween can do only so much.

stever20: what % chance do you think the Nats have of retaining Harper?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question. it wasn’t entirely clear whether Scott Boras was merely joking when he said the other day that a deal was “already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally.” https://nypost.com/2018/10/29/scott-boras-drops-improbable-bryce-harpe…

If that’s true, the only team that could be with is the Nationals, who do enjoy a particularly chummy relationship with Boras such that Stephen Strasburg actually went the extension route rather than free agency. Most believe Boras had tongue in cheek when he said that. Still, I think that there’s a reasonable chance, somewhere between 33% and 50%, that Bryce stays in Washington.

Guille: hi Jay! What do you say are the chances Yankees don´t sign either Machado or Harper? It´s gotta be higher than 50% considering neither is a great fit for the team.

Jay Jaffe: I’d put it around 50%. Given the re-signing of Gardner, even at fourth outfielder money, as well as the continued presence of Judge, Hicks and Stanton and the pending arrival of Clint Frazier, Harper doesn’t make much sense. Machado makes more sense given Didi Gregorius’s Tommy John surgery. The team loves him some Didi but he’s going to miss roughly half of his final season under club control. If they really want Machado, it’s not just to alleviate what might be a three-month absence.

Guille: hi Jay! IF Kershaw extends his contract with the Dodgers, is something like 5/175 in the ballpark?

Kiley McDaniel: Coming to you from Florida for one last time, it’s Kileychat

Mets: We hired an agent…. WTF? honestly, I don’t see how even a regular GM would see anything but a full teardown as the only option.

Kiley McDaniel: The Brodie Van Wagenen hire is definitely one drawing some conversation around the game. It’s definitely not normal to have a GM that is recused from talking contract extension with your best player. The game has also changed so much in the last 5-10 years and agents have almost no exposure to all of these new facets.

I’m not saying they/Brodie don’t understand the stats we talk about here, but you’ll need to staff up/direct an R+D department, know their blind spots, hire scouts, hire coaches, etc. Not every GM is good at this, but how can we expect BVW to be good at this right away with no prior exposure to any of it, working with people he essentially doesn’t know? We also don’t know what sort of personnel decisions he’ll make, whom he’ll hire/fire in the front office…there’s just a lot of questions.

Kiley McDaniel: He could be good–I don’t want to be cast as knocking the hire just due to lack of information about him–but it just seems like an odd decision and one that’s impossible to judge for awhile.

Walter O’Malley : Which is worse for pitcher health? Throwing 100 mph or throwing 100 pitches?

Kiley McDaniel: 100 mph. That’s the biggest known cause of arm injuries. Rest between starts would go way ahead of pitches per start in terms of importance for predicting injuries. There’s a reason relievers get used 2-3 days in a row and blow out more often.

Meg Rowley: Hello and welcome to the offseason chat! Boy oh boy, it sure is the offseason.

Nick: What do you see the Cubs doing with Addison Russell? What do *you* think they should do?

Meg Rowley: I think they’ll probably cut and I think that makes good sense.

Meg Rowley: I was never that hype on him as a player, and now I’m even less in on the guy as a person.

Meg Rowley: I’m sure he’ll resurface somewhere, but I don’t expect him to play another game for the Cubs.

Tom in SD: Any chance the Yankees trade Stanton to the Dodgers and sign Harper?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Greetings everyone!

david s: Where in the hell are the 2019 ZiPS, Dane?

Mark: Dan, can you give me a quick ZiPS projection on when I can care about baseball again.

Matt: Kinda weird how infatuated with the Yankees the Red Sox fans seem to be, eh?

Dan Szymborski: You can still care about baseball! Stuff is happening.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Dylan: What do you make of Brodie Van Wagenen being the frontrunner for Met GM? Is this a good idea or is the lack of experience too much to overcome?

Jeff Sullivan: Let me put it this way: I am excited by the prospect of a team making such an outside-the-box hire. But if I were a Mets fan, I’d prefer to have Bloom, because I wouldn’t want my team to be an experiment

Elwood: Are you still watching the Senators this year? As an Avalanche fan that went through 16-17 I can tell you I’ve never learned more from a season.

Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t been terrible yet!

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where we’re approaching the Fall League halfway point. Let’s chat for a bit.

NotGraphs Revivalist: What kind of prospect package would ATL or SD need to put together for Syndergaard?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be surprised if the the Mets move a big fish this winter. The new regime is going to be operating with incomplete information, there’s real risk of making a bad deal.

Tommy N.: Padres ownership seems to want to make a splash this offseason. It would be unwise to start trading top prospects with where the Padres are at in the rebuild process, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: They have to start consolidating talent at some point and I do think we’ll see some action this offseason, even if it’s just on the fringe of the 40-man.

Ace: When evaluating pitching prospects, what mechanical aspects of a pitcher’s delivery point to SP vs RP? Is it a certain arm slot, arm path, stride length, violent delivery, etc. Thanks

Craig Edwards: Welcome everyone. We’ll get things going in a moment, so keep the questions coming, but first a poll.

Craig Edwards:

Dan Szymborski: GRAVY FRIES

Dan Szymborski: I like opening with a non sequitur.

Dan Szymborski: We are hear for the base ball match. Thank you all for joining us on your telematronic typescribers.

Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: How many “The Price is Wrong” headlines if Price scuffles?

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here. Some quick plugging of things I’ve done lately

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast with
1. Jeff Passan on sign stealing
2. Eric and I about structuring a scouting dept
3. Jake Mintz of Cespedes Family BBQ on the ballad of Barbecue Yee
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…

Kiley McDaniel: The even orgs most likely to win the next 5 world series: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/heres-who-will-win-the-next-five-world…

Kiley McDaniel: I tweeted this morning that it sounds like Doug Melvin is the favorite for the Mets job (though it obviously isn’t a done deal yet):

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly, I just bought a house and am currently dealing with contractors. May not recommend that one, but it’s what I’ve been doing

Tommy N.: Do you think the Reds will eventually trade Eugenio Suarez with Nick Senzel and Jonathan India waiting in the background?

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, it looks like I’m throwing out first pitch here! Welcome to our World Series Game 1 chat.

Joe: As writers, do you prefer this kind of matchup of big money teams with lots of stars, or is it better to have an underdog?

Dan Szymborski: Yah, boo.

DodgeGuys: I just wanted to say thank you for the wonderful work you all do. Looking forward to your coverage of the World Series! Hope it’s a good one!

Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t all wonderful

Carson Cistulli’s Moustaches: Would Yasiel Puig benefit spiritually from growing out a moustache in homage to that sported by Bill “The Butcher” Cutting from Gangs of New York?