Jay Jaffe: Good morning or afternoon folks, wherever you may be, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat.

Corey: Aaron Judge is not an 21 year old phenom, but he still has just 710 ML ABs and he’s got an wRC+ north of 200 again. Are we taking his greatness for granted already?

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s the danger of that happening in some quarters, particularly given an understandable desire to resist the volume of coverage and hype that comes with success as a Yankee. But with his shoulder healed, he’s certainly showing again that last year wasn’t entirely a fluke.

Murdoc: Favorite run or lift to lap at Snowbird?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve skied at Snowbird for 99% of my time in the sport. My favorite run is off the tram, down Upper Primrose Path and into the lower Cirque and then Anderson’s Hill. Man, it’s been 3 years since I’ve gotten to do that because of the book and the baby. I miss skiing.

BK: What is the highest probability you would give to a rookie of making the Hall of Fame? Over under 5%?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi, everyone

Eric A Longenhagen: Let me plug some stuff then get to your questions

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley wrote the Jays list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-toronto-blue-jays

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote Cleveland: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-cleveland-indians/

Eric A Longenhagen: okay, let’s roll

Jack: Any chance we see Luzardo in the majors in 2018?

Meg Rowley: Hello! Good morning/afternoon, and welcome to the chat.

Tommy N.: First time in your chat, do you follow MiLB stuff? If so do you have thoughts on Eric Lauer.

Meg Rowley: I follow some especially at the higher levels, but not as diligently or with as keen an eye as Eric or Kiley, and don’t have specific thoughts on Lauer. But I bet Eric and Kiley do. They’re smart about these things.

le fan: Did you watch buehler’s debut or did you take the night off?

Meg Rowley: I watched some but not all of it. Command was spotty at times, but he was probably pretty amped. I like that fastball (very original thought). I’m looking forward to seeing how the curve plays. I think he’ll be good, with the usual caveat that he’s a pitcher, and loving them is always risky because we ask them to do an insane thing.

CamdenWarehouse: As a Mariners fan, is there any advice you can give Orioles fans about following a team for whose front office you have lost all faith?

Travis Sawchik: Howdy

Travis Sawchik: The Belt at-bat is still going …

Travis Sawchik: But we’ll chat anyways

Ron: Are you more worried ab out Giancarlo Stanton or Joey Votto’s slumps and which slump shows a more problematic trend in either player?

Travis Sawchik: Since Votto is six years older, I’m more concerned. Stanton seems to go through brutal cold stretches each season, so maybe this is just one of those lulls. Maybe some of it is adjusting to a new league, too

indians farm: what are the Indians doing with Yandy Diaz? Trade candidate?

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: I was away and off the grid Thursday, and missing one day of baseball always makes me feel like I missed a hundred. Let’s see how this goes!

BJOGC: So…. About Carson’s Chat. I wish I hadn’t have been there because now I realize how empty and meaningless life will be without the prospect of him doing weekly chats.

Jeff Sullivan: It sounds as if he has been successful

Jeff Sullivan: In that this is one more person who is going to live feeling like life is empty and meaningless

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, linkage: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-1-0/

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s today’s mock draft which dumps our current intel.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s our updated draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

Eric A Longenhagen: And here are details on the giant board of every minor leaguer we ranked on a list, even if we haven’t posted the full reports ont he site yet: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/introducing-the-board/

Eric A Longenhagen: Forgive me if I cut today’s chat short. Yesterday was not a good one in the Galmenhagen house as my wife’s cat of ten years, who has been hospitalized this week, took a turn for the worse. On my wife’s birthday. Yeah. Anyway…

Billy Beane: Are there any organizations you have a hard time scouting just because of location?

Jay Jaffe: Hello and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. I think I injured my shoulder patting myself on the back for predicting Bryan Price would get fired back in 2015, and every subsequent year since. But other than that, i’m doing well…

Wes: Given the expectations for the Reds this season, how bad of a manager do you have to be to get fired after 18 games? What else was going on in the clubhouse?

Jay Jaffe: As somebody who long ago failed to see the logic of continuing with Price, I’m clearly not the best expert to ask about his continued employment, but to me, any time you fire a manager this early, it’s an indictment of the decision makers above (unless there’s a specific, precipitating incident). Even 3-15 — if you’re a rebuilding team, you have a plan for the year or you don’t. And I’m not clear on what the Reds’ plan was here that necessitates a change now when it didn’t in October.

Joshua: What is your favorite IPA?

Jay Jaffe: Pliny the Elder and Heady Topper are the two favorites, but I’m lucky if I get to taste both in the same year given their scarcity around these parts of Brooklyn. My local go-to lately has been Threes Brewing’s Unreliable Narrator, a dank, tropical IPA that they release about every month or so and deliver to me by the case.

Slapshot: What are your thoughts on NEIPAs?  If you like them, do you have any particular favorites?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone, I’m in the South right now live from a Courtyard. I saw Ethan Hankins on Monday, Cole Wilcox and Chattanooga-Jacksonville last night. The plan is to see Kumar Rocker tonight, Anthony Seigler tomorrow, Casey Mize on Friday then head back to Florida for Wichita/UCF and Auburn/Florida.

Kiley McDaniel: Also Eric and I put up an updated draft top 55 today: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-2018-mlb-draft-rankings/

Kiley McDaniel: and we’ll have a mock draft going up tomorrow

Kiley McDaniel: and in case you don’t follow me on twitter, here’s a Nick Gordon homer from last night

Tommy N.: Kelenic has risen to 8 on your updated rankings do you think the Padres could snag him at 7?

Freddy: Any idea who Atlanta is connected with?

Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

Well-Beered Englishman: Would you rather cheer for a team that loses 100 games in the season, or a team that reaches the World Series but loses every WS game 25-0?

Meg Rowley: Well having been a fan of the 2008 and 2010 Mariners, a team that reaches the World Series and loses horribly. Mostly because my mom taught me I should try new things.

Albie Lopez: Are you worried about the early numbers from Chris Archer? Strikeouts are there and velocity seems within reasonable error bars. Think he rebounds and has a normal season?

Meg Rowley: I’m a little concerned. The walks aren’t great. He’s had a hard time locating in some of these starts. That the velocity hasn’t dipped dramatically and that he is still generating swings and misses is why I’m not a lot concerned. It’ll maybe probably straighten out to something more effective than this, but it would be great to see that happen soonish.

resumeman: Will you be updating the ATC projections for the Rest of Year projections, or will that just be the ZIPS/Steamer ones?

Carson Cistulli: Hello. Dan Szymborski is indisposed today. I will be your substitute for this “chat.” Will begin in earnest approximately 15 minutes from now.

Carson Cistulli: Okay. I will now begin in earnest.

Ben: Why are you doing this?

Carson Cistulli: To make some use of myself.

Claude: Venez vous à Montreal cet été?

Carson Cistulli: I am. I can not speak to the city as a whole. That said, the quarter in which I have typically stayed — just southeast, I guess, of the Little Italy — is one of the most perfect neighborhoods I’ve ever visited.