Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from the Cardinals backfields in Florida. I’m getting started a few minutes early so I can focus on the game a little sooner, as we’re about to get underway. Plus, there are already a ton of questions in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m hotspotting, so apologies if things are spotty, internet-wise.

Eric A Longenhagen: In any case, thans for being here.

Guest: Any advice on how to get into/improve scouting abilities? Any resources that have been imperative in your learning?

Eric A Longenhagen: I would read Jason Parks’ chapters in the second edition of Extra Innings, I would read Dollar Sign on the Muscle, Future Value, and go see bad baseball at your local colleges.

Dallas: What’s the balance between actual production vs. K rates? I look at guys like Esmerlyn Valdez and Konnor Griffin, each have performed admirably this season and have up arrows, however both of their K rates are relatively high. Is the production legit or is the K rates red flags for long term success?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all had great holiday weekends here. The weather in NYC was great, allowing for a lot of outdoor time — I avoided Friday night’s rain at Citi Field and caught Dodgers-Mets the next night. Wrote about Will Smith and Dalton Rushing in a piece that will be up soon.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Astros’ Christian Walker (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/christian-walker-hasnt-fixed-the-astros-fi…), who hit a walker-off home run yesterday. (sorry, not sorry)

Jay Jaffe: if you missed “Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe, and the Hall of Fame” — the SABR roundtable I did with Rose biographer Keith O’Brien, ESPN reporter Don Van Natta Jr., and Black Sox expert Jacob Pomrenke, it’s now up on YouTube here

Jay Jaffe: and with that, let’s chat…

KC: Mayer has looked solid so far but the Red Sox are flailing, can we expect Roman soon to try to add more offense with Bregman out for a while?

Jay Jaffe: no sooner had I written about a set of twists and turns in the Red Sox infield — Trevor Story’s slump, Kristian Campbell’s work at first base, and Marcelo Mayer’s work at second (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-storys-slump-and-the-never-ending-s…) than Bregman got injured, leading the Sox to try Mayer out at third.

Dan Szymborski: Chat time chat time, something that rhymes with chat time

Dan Szymborski: lime!

Dan Szymborski: slime!

Dan Szymborski: grime!

Dan Szymborski: splat chime!

Dan Szymborski: fat dime!

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and while that may not make a difference to you if you’re staring at a computer screen, it’s lightening my mood just a bit.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Braves’ outfield situation with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. finally on the horizon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-the-braves-recover-from-their-sluggish-…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the Twins’ just-completed 13-game winning streak. That’s in the pipeline and should go up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET, I’ll be participating in a SABR roundtable on the subject of the recently reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, along with Keith O’Brien (author of the recent Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts regarding both Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an expert on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will serve as moderator. https://sabr.org/latest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe

Jay Jaffe: It was just after last week’s chat wrapped up that all hell broke loose with the Rose news. My coverage of it is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu…

Jay Jaffe: And with that housekeeping out of the way, on with the show!

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, everyone. Hope you’ve all had a pleasant week. I’m enjoying the last little bit of mild weather here in Tempe and looking forward to conference tournament play.

Eric A Longenhagen: Brewers list went up yesterday:

Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee Brewers Top 45 Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll probably keep things tight to an hour today. I’m flying to Florida next Friday and I’m going to chat earlier in the day, so be on the lookout for that next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s address your many queries.

Rockies Optimist: Adael Amador looks not great, but maybe its the Rockies stink? Also, Jared Thomas/Kyle Karros legit? Karros seems more floor and Thomas more ceiling.

Dan Szymborski: Ah, we meet again, Fangraphiers!

M: Better stash? Cowser or Meadows?

Dan Szymborski: Cowser, I think. You’re not rewarded for the best stuff Parker Meadows does!

.330/50: I looked it up on stat muse, and, weirdly, there are seven seasons where a player hit 50+ hr with a .349+ BA. And there are seven where a player hit 50+ with a .329+ BA. Barry in 01 was at .328 and one of Foxx’s two biggest years was .349. So… I know Zips doesn’t think AJ can keep THIS up, but given he’s been hitting like .370 for more than a year now, where would you rank the season all time if he “slumps” to finish the year at like a .335/.440/.712 with 50+ (again, measurably worse than he has been over the past year)? To me it would basically just be Barry and his special sauce since expansion ahead of it.

Dan Szymborski: I can’t give an exact ranking off-hand, but it’s an absolutely monster season, and I think it would cement his status as a Sandy Koufax-esque Hall of Famer if something bad happened.

Dan Szymborski: I would personally argue he’s already at that level, but I strongly suspect I’m much more willing to vote for a dizzying-peak/shortish career guy than most writers are

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat, and apologies if the non-standard start time threw anybody for a loop; I needed to take care of some business after filing today’s piece a bit later than usual — a quick look at Jonathan Aranda’s breakout that took me a bit longer to complete than I expected because I had colleague Davy Andrews over for beers last night as ww watched some baseball. Anyway, that should go up at 1 pm ET.

Yesterday I wrote about Javier Báez’s rebound after two dismal seasons in Detroit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-look-javier-baez-is-fun-again/. On Friday I took a look at some statistical anomalies within extra-innings play thus far this season https://blogs.fangraphs.com/weird-stuff-is-going-on-in-extra-innings-m…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show!

You have weakened: Your reverse-jinx powers are no match for the supernova that is Judge. I swear, every night he doesn’t show up in the highlights, I’m like, well, guess he had a bad game. (Looks at last night’s box score – 2-3 with a double and 2 walks)

Jay Jaffe: We’re seeing one of the best runs — if not the best — by a hitter in the 21st century. He’s hitting .414/.500/.783 (255 wRC+) six weeks into the season! Caught a few of his at-bats in the last couple of days and it’s like he’s using a pool cue out there to place the ball where the fielders ain’t.

Sodo Mojo: Who ends up with more Career WAR Julio Rodriguez or Aaron Judge.  I don’t think Julio ever approaches Judges single season rate stats but got a 4 year head start.

Jay Jaffe: I’m gonna go with the guy who looks like he might be on his way to his third 10-win season out of four.