Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the latest edition of my weekly chat. I’m having some technical difficulties and need to restart my browser, so please give me a few minutes before we get up and running.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, that’s better.

Jay Jaffe: Since it’s April 8, I’ll note a pair of important milestones:  today marks the 51st anniversary of Hank Aaron’s 715th home run, and the 50th anniversary of Frank Robinson making his debut as the first Black manager in AL/NL history.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Reds’ offensive struggles and some interesting developments with Elly De La Cruz’s swing(s) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-reds-offense-has-been-dreadful-so-far-…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on Victor Robles’ spectacular catch and subsequent shoulder injury as well as some other injuries of note: Spencer Arrighetti, Iván Herrera, Ketel Marte and Blake Snell. Should be up before this chat ends

cubs fan: I liked your article about Kyle Tucker’s market price last week, but I’m curious what you’d think he’d get if (like he is so far doing, although April obviously) he matches that superhuman 8-WAR pace from last season rather than the ZIPS projections or the previous career norm (and stays healthy)

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where we’re enjoying a little cold snap before the heat cranks next week. Let me see how fast I can clear the questions in the queue…

Guest: Shaw shown you any new info in just a week in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, especially with the Japan trip in there, he deserves a nice, long runway to get comfortable after essentially skipping Iowa.

Baron: After doing the bluejays list and hearing scouts input of players. Who are the guys you are excited to watch in their system this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yorman Licourt

Idiotic Failson: Will Chandler Simpson be a viable big leaguer? I have sort of a prospect crush on him (and he’s not even a part of my favorite team’s farm system)

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaaaay we go!

Guest: Given his past performance, and what you’ve seen from him so far this season, when do you expect Lindor’s slow start will end?

Dan Szymborski: April 🙂

Houzer: More excited this year for Jack Leiter or McKenzie Gore?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Gore slightly? The nats pitching holding up and a Gore breakout is their playoff path, and that intrigues me. Though I get more of a benefit with Leiter since he was on his breakouts list

Bubbles: Is there any research on how many pitches to a hitter it takes for swing metrics like O-Zone Swing % to start becoming signal over noise of small samples?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo regular season chat! It’s been a few weeks since I could occupy this slot; at this time last week, I was in the midst of a fruitless trip to the DMV, where a reservation apparently doesn’t mean what you think it means. Anyway, it’s the first of April, which means that it’s my mother’s 83rd birthday; she’s not reading this chat, but I note it merely to introduce the guarantee that none of what follows will be in the form of an April Fool’s joke. I spend enough time mixing bullshit with earnestness in my online persona that some people have enough trouble figuring out which is which, so let’s just skip that part.

Anyway, yesterday I took a look at some goings-on in the Diamondbacks rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jordan-montgomery-may-be-done-as-a-diamond…

Jay Jaffe: Hot off the presses, I’ve got a piece about the White Sox rotation, which through the season’s first four games has yet to allow an earned run — a fluky thing but one that’s earned them a run in Small Sample Theater. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-white-sox-rotation-has-put-up-mostly-z…

Jay Jaffe: Like, that sucker just went live while I started typing that paragraph. Don’t burn your hands. And now, on with the show…

flightsongs: Happy May Day one month early! What’s the most optimistic you’re allowing yourself to be about Dustin May this year?

Jay Jaffe: Let’s say 15 starts, some relief appearances, good performance and a spot in the postseason bullpen. Hope springs eternal!

StiebedTea: Howdy Jay! Let’s lump ’em all together and ask: Should Devers be swinging a torpedo bat right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, starting early because I have much to do and there are already lots of questions in the queue.

Eric A Longenhagen: My work slate: James Fegan and I are working to wrap up to Blue Jays list, which will run early next week when Meg has the bandwidth to do something other than just PPRs. After that I’ll be solo’ing the Orioles list. I’ve been on a backfield or two every day this week to lay track for the lists that will follow Baltimore: CLE, LAD, CHW, CIN, MIL…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m writing my PPR (relievers) and my chunk of a Bold Prediction post, both of which will also run next week.

Eric A Longenhagen: I might cut short chat at like 45 min today because I’m going to start my day at either Camelback Ranch or in Maryvale and then wrap it in Maryvale for the night big league game, and I’ve gotta write betwixt and between those.

Birds: Zach Fruit has had two pretty impressive spring outings, the second against a lineup of BOS regulars. Stuff+ grades strong from public models. Can he stick as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fruit’s stuff is way up (one of a couple Orioles for whom that is true) and he’s been sitting like 97. Looks reliever-y to me, but it’s great that his stuff is up this much.