Dave Cameron: So, as you guys can see, we’re testing out a new piece of chat software today. I chose today for the test run since I expect this will be a lower traffic day, given Thanksgiving tomorrow, so while we’re still going to answer your questions, I also wanted to use this to get some feedback from you guys on how the software is working (or not working). So feel free to let me know what you guys see, and we’ll play around with this system to see if it’s something we want to switch over to.

Dave Cameron: Alright, since this is a bit of a beta test for this new software (built by a FG reader, by the way), we’ll start a couple of minutes early. Definitely interested in hearing your feedback as we go along.

Andrew: Now baseball related…when evaluating a past free agent contract, should the distribution of production be taken into account? If we were to look at Shane Victorino from ’13-’15 – $39 million for a total of about 6 wins, but all 6 wins came over the course of a single season. Is that more valuable, less valuable, or equally as valuable as if he were to have 3 2-win seasons?

Dave Cameron: There are differing schools of thought on this answer, with some people absolutely convinced that wins are non-linearly valuable, so a +6 WAR season is worth way more than three +2 WAR seasons. I don’t think that’s really true in practice, though, at least not to a huge degree. If there’s a multiplier, I think it’s probably something like 1.1x instead, so maybe one +6 WAR season is worth +6.6 WAR compared to three +2 WAR seasons being worth +6 WAR, or something to that effect.

Eric: up or under, 50% chance Redsox land David Price?

Dave Cameron: I’d say under, because he might just not want to play there, and at some point, the marginal difference between $220 million versus $205 million or something isn’t going to change his lifestyle.

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! We’re baaaaaack. Join Jeff and myself tonight at 9 pm ET and we can talk some baseball. Or we can talk about The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2016, on sale now! Or whatever else you want to talk about.

Paul Swydan: Hi everyone, let’s get started. It’s good to be back.

Jeff Zimmerman: Good evening everyone.

Comment From Scott
Does Neil Walker get traded?

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I don’t see the rush

Paul Swydan: I think they’re in a tough spot with Walker. They can’t afford to trade him for prospects. If they deal him, they’ll have to get a major league ready piece back. And that may be tough to procure.

August Fagerstrom: hello, people!

August Fagerstrom: start getting those questions in. i’ll be back in ~15 to get things started

August Fagerstrom: today’s chat soundtrack: Deltron 3030 – Deltron 3030

August Fagerstrom: ok!

Comment From Cam
Del the Funky Homosapien is 100x better with Dan the Automator.

August Fagerstrom: all things are better with Dan the Automator. really wish the Damon Albarn/Dan the Automator collab would make a return for a Gorillaz album. nothing tops that first record

Dan Szymborski: Welecome to the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat, where we promise our readers that at not time during chats is Dan Szymborski naked or using the toilet.

Comment From Bravoman
What can Atlanta expect to get in return for Shelby Miller or Julio Teheran? Far-away prospects? Or possibly a young MLB bat like Joc Pederson? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I doubt they’ll get a Joc Pederson type (unless you’re just really down on him). Miller has more trade value right now, of course. Teheran actually makes sense to not trade unlike some others – his value right now just isn’t as high as it could be.

Comment From GSon
Does having your socks on count as NOT being naked?..

Dan Szymborski: I think it counts as naked if you could not appear on basic cable.

Comment From Ryan
If you’re running the Cards, how do you go about adding offense?

Jeff Sullivan: Baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: With you!

Comment From MSW
mmmmmmm content

Jeff Sullivan: Later than scheduled but earlier than normal!

Comment From Archie
After basically trashing they guy, what can the Marlins realistically expect for Ozuna? Any teams in particular make sense?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — that leaked recording turned out to be a hoax, right? But it’s not like it didn’t still capture how the Marlins apparently feel about the guy

Eno Sarris: terrible night last night so upbeat music only

Eno Sarris:

Comment From Mets Fan
Am I crazy not wanting to give Ben Zobrist a big contract from hos age 34-38 seasons, especially with other viable second base options and the apparent limited payroll room?

Eno Sarris: Yeah he was league average last year. I’d like him on 3 for 40 or something, worried he’ll get much more.

Comment From The Dude
Why was last night terrible?

Eno Sarris: Three year old has croup, one year old has an ear infection, the 15-year-old dogs we’re sitting are senile and started barking at the crying, and I had acid reflux.

Dave Cameron: It’s Wednesday, so let’s talk some baseball. It’s awards week, so while I can’t talk about the NL Cy Young race too much until after the ballots are announced in ~6 hours, we can talk about all the other awards. Or, we can speculate wildly about what kinds of trades and free agent signings might be coming down the pipeline. Or we can talk about dogs. Up to you.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, and we’ll get started in 20 minutes.

Comment From John
What would a Jose Fernandez trade to the Red Sox look like?

Dave Cameron: Going to write about this in the next few days, but I think people are somewhat overstating Fernandez’s value. It’s three years of a pitcher coming off arm surgery with basically zero chance at a long-term extension. Yeah, he’s a great pitcher when he’s healthy, but right now, you don’t know that he’s 100%, and there’s a decent chance he might not be available for a deep postseason run next year. So if it’s just 3 regular seasons and 2 postseasons, it’s not quite as valuable as people are speculating.

Dave Cameron: Really, though, there’s no reason for the Marlins to trade him now, unless they know he’s broken. If they’re reasonably confident he’s healthy, let him throw 100 dominant innings and trade him in July when there aren’t other FA pitchers for teams to sign.

Comment From The Average Sports Fan
How much influence do you see Williams having in 2016 for the Reds?

August Fagerstrom: hello, people!

August Fagerstrom: the thing you do is start typing questions about baseball and life into the little box. the thing i do is come back in 15 minutes and begin answering them

August Fagerstrom: today’s chat soundtrack will be Cannibal Ox – The Blue Vein. an all-time classic for hip hop heads. haven’t been able to stop lately

August Fagerstrom:

August Fagerstrom: ok!

August Fagerstrom: let’s begin

Dan Szymborski: It has begun.

Dan Szymborski: The chat, that is.

Comment From Andrew
Are ZiPS projections a bell curve of possible high/low outcomes with the mean being the final projection, or is it merely a single, most likely value that gets spit out?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS gives a whole distribution of outcomes. However, it’s not a predetermined curve like a normal curve.

Comment From Allen R.
Begun it has!

Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s normally reserved for the commencement of a plot of dastardly deeds, so not quite applicable.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: Within we shall discuss baseball and your experiences with it

Comment From uruguayan
Played that way, is Brock Holt a league average shortstop?

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s kick it off with some Brock Holt questions

Jeff Sullivan: I think the answer is no. For a while it could seem like yes, when Holt is riding a wave of singles, but I don’t find him particularly gifted in the middle infield, and I don’t actually like his offense that much