Archive for Chat

Dan Szymborski: Frivolity may now commence.

ThisIsBob: Not going to lie I expected Baez 2.0 with PCA. Are there any examples of players that dramatically improved their plate discipline and increased their walk rates like PCA has?

Dan Szymborski: Morandini

Dan Szymborski: Votto wasn’t born the plate discipline god either

Dan Szymborski: Jose Bautista too, but it could also be the rushed nature of being rule 5

Dan Szymborski: I would suspect Sosa too, but we don’t really have out-of-zone data for him

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I’m just back from a trip to Salt Lake City to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday and the upcoming birthdays of my daughter and niece. While in transit, I learned that Tommy John had passed away. My tribute to him just went live moments ago: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tommy-john-1943-2026-crafty-lefty-and-firs…

David: If you could populate the Hall of Fame with the same number of players, would there would be a 90% overlap with those who are actually enshrined? Or do you think the writers and others who have voted over the years got it right more often than 90% of the time – or less?

Jay Jaffe: Not sure about 90%, but maybe 75%. I’d put in more Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball players and strip out some of the 1930s guys who rode the Frisch/Terry Express. More starting pitchers from the 1980s to 2000s. More figures whose influence went beyond the numbers, including John Donaldson, Lefty O’Doul, Fernando Valenzuela, and yes, Tommy John (and Dr. Frank Jobe).

doink000: I don’t understand why Webb wasn’t more seriously talked about in terms of potentially being on the move. I know he got the coveted “Buster Posey Assurance,” but best case scenario is this time will be on the up and up by 2028/2029 and Webb isn’t getting any younger/more durable. As a potential number 1, top shelf number 2 on a reasonable contract, seems like he would’ve landed a pretty decent prospects haul. Or, could’ve packaged him with a salary dump like Adames and still could’ve gotten good value.

Jay Jaffe: I think some of it comes down to a perception and public relations. “Let’s get rid of these expensive acquisitions that were mistakes to acquire (Devers, Adames) and keep the homegrown guys we’ve nurtured (Webb) and that the fan base has grown to love.”

Jay Jaffe: But you’re right in that Webb has more trade value than a contract that is underwater or bordering on it

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the monsoon was in full effect this week. Happy to be home after a long, productive Area Codes. Thanks for stopping by, let’s hit your questions…

rux12321: Any thoughts/insights on recent draftees Cole Prosek and Connor Comeau?

Eric A Longenhagen: I was in Surprise yesterday. Prosek had a big day on the Royals’ side of the Complex. Homered and doubled, big move forward, nice to see him squaring pro pitching out the gate. I was on the Rangers side until they were done (only seven innings yesterday) and Comeau played well at shortstop, took good at-bats. Didn’t sizzle anything but looked good, much more projectable than Prosek. Seong-Jun Kim pitched, 93-94, four pitches, strikes.

Eric A Longenhagen: More through the portal: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

mistersparkle: Do you see Ethan Salas being promoted to the majors by the end of this season? If so, are the Padres rushing him or does he seem big-league-ready?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so long as Campy is hitting like this that Fermin/Campy is the duo they’ll go to the mattresses with.

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Brendan Gawlowski: Apologies for the delay but we’re here now

Brendan Gawlowski: This will be my last chat until September, taking a few weeks off starting with the weekend

Brendan Gawlowski: Just got back from area codes with Eric, so if you have questions about 17 year old baseball players, this is a great time

Graham Lewis: Drew Cavanaugh gonna get a lot of run the rest of the season. A cool story. Are you coming around on him as a possible regular at all?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s possible but I think others in the system are more likely to win the job in the long term.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. In less than 24 hours, I’ll be en route to Salt Lake City with my family as we gather to celebrate my father’s 85th birthday.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on Dalton Rushing’s UCL tear, his various controversies, and the state of the Dodgers’ catching depth chart in the pipeline. Yesterday, i wrote about Max Scherzer cracking the all-time top 10 in strikeouts as well as feats by Gerrit Cole and Jacob Misiorowski, with JAWS and ZiPS odds updates on both Cole and Saturday’s opposite number, Chris Sale https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-headlines-a-big-weekend-for-s…

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I looked at some precedents to the Adley Rutschman trade, where contenders brought in a new backstop via a midseason deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catching-lightning-in-a-bottle-a-history-o…

Jay Jaffe: And that’s where we are.

drplantwrench: which trade at the deadline do you think is most likely to be brought up in 5-10 years as That One Trade where it backfired and the prospect substantially overshadows the main piece?

Dan Szymborski: To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: Except maybe SzymChat.

war2d2: Dan! Good news! I just realized you can sing your name to the tune of “Black Betty” by Ram Jam. Do with this information what you will.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if the lyric “Szymborski had a child bam ba lam” really works

Chandler White: How does Zips react to a player repeating a minor league level and performing much better? The general notion is that it’s expected from potential major leaguers but was unsure if Zips is only factoring in age and other league factors or if there was something built into the algo to reference a repeat in level.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a bit of a penalty for repeating after a previous stint of at least 1/2 a season

war2d2: I felt the Cubs did an okay job at the deadline, addressing the needs they had with decent options (ZiPS seems to agree, judging by your piece on the deadline). Obviously I’m disappointed they didn’t land Skubal, as I think anyone would be. You had said previously that, from a playoff odds perspective, Skubal made the most impact on the Cubs’ chances out of anyone. Would he have made more of an impact alone than the package of Gausman et al did in aggregate?

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Brendan Gawlowski: Sorry for the slight delay, I was getting coffee

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d link to all the stuff we’ve done lately but, well, it’s a little overwhelming

Brendan Gawlowski: So let’s just get going

miggy80: Is Kane Kepleys stock increasing now that he’s showing some pop?

Brendan Gawlowski: Talked with a scout who said something along the lines of “I don’t normally like this type of player… but I like him.”