Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks and welcome to my first chat from the absolute darkest spot on the MLB calendar, the interval between the end of the Hall of Fame election cycle and the opening of spring training, which…. ain’t gonna happen for awhile.

Jay Jaffe: It’s an appropriately gray and rainy day here in Brooklyn, and as i write this, the players’ union has told MLB what to do with its request for mediation to settle the lockout, which was completely unnecessary to begin with

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t yet gotten through Evan Drelich’s piece on where things go from here but suffice it to say that if you thought you were going to see spring training games in late February or March, you should start nailing down those backup plans https://theathletic.com/3112497/2022/02/04/why-the-players-rejected-ml…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, i’ve been on staycation this week since publishing my five-year outlook for Hall of Fame elections https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dialing-it-down-a-notch-the-next-five-year…

Jay Jaffe: Today I went to the eye doctor and I’m still dilated, so we’ll see how long i can sustain this blurred/haloed vision thing while we chat

Mark: Would you ever consider leaving off a sure thing first ballot candidate to give your 10th vote to someone struggling to pass 5 percent?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat!

Jay Jaffe: Today I have a FanGraphs Audio podcast spot of a conversation I had with ESPN’s Buster Olney (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-buster-olney-and-jay-j…) in which we discussed his recent piece about the Hall of Fame Tracker (https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/32999293/what-lear…) and how expanded coverage of the election cycle has changed the Hall of Fame process. Plus stuff about the character clause, the lockout, and more…

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week I had profiles of Tim Lincecum (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-tim-…) and Jonathan Papelbon (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-…), the final two profiles of this year’s 30 candidates.

Justin B.: Jay, a week or two ago I read a Verducci article in which he noted that Joe West could be part of the Era Committee ballot next year, something I had not considered. Now, since West does have the record for most games umpired, I guess I don’t want to say he shouldn’t ever make it, but I’m kind of bummed thinking about that era committee now. I was hoping for some players to get in, like Lofton or McGriff (sorry! Childhood favorite). I’m glad for Bochy to make it, but now with Joe West maybe in the picture as well… how do you sort out that picture? Do you think Bochy and West getting in would have to come at the expense of any players realistically having a shot?

Jay Jaffe: The big problem with next year’s Today’s Game ballot is is that Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa will all be eligible, which could very well take up a significant chunk of real estate and oxygen. You’ve got guys who fell off the writers’ ballot (McGriff, Lofton), and managers (holdover Lou Piniella, plus Bochy and possibly Jim Leyland), and while there still could be other candidates on there, it might be hard to justify putting Joe West at the head of the line.

Jay Jaffe: and yes, since the Era Committee vote is basically a math problem — there are only 64 ballot slots to go around (16 x 4) and12 votes needed to gain entry, the more good candidates there are on the ballot the tougher it is to get a consensus. A repeat of the recent Golden Days result, with four candidates getting elected and a fifth missing by one vote, is extremely unlikely, and even getting three candidates elected would be as well.

Dan Szymborski: The chat is now.

Matt: ZiPS seems very down on Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh. Is there any hope for them?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Adell’s projection has already rebounded from the year before! But he still needs to develop.

Dan Szymborski: As for Marsh, ZiPS is not yet enthralled by his offense

Tyler: Rangers ZIPS came out today. The rotation is a nothing burger outside of Gray. ZIPS seems to under project innings for Hearn (92), Dunning (109), who are both certain to be in the rotation but has (134) for Folty who isn’t even on the team?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS goes from history.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of 2022. We’ve got a few inches of snow in Brooklyn from last night but against the odds, the kiddo is in school for the first time since December 17, the last time I chatted.

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got my third entry from among the one-and-done candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot, Ryan Howard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-ryan…

Jay Jaffe: this completes a trilogy of first basemen who won the Home Run Derby and made several All-Star teams before their careers were indelibly altered by injuries. Prince Fielder (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) and Justin Morneau (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot-prin…) preceded Howard. The explainer for my actual Hall of Fame ballot, which went into the mail on December 30, is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2022-hall-of-fame-ballot/

Jay Jaffe: Anyhoo, there’s not a lot going on besides Hall stuff given the lockout, so that will be the primary focus of this chat

TomBruno23: How can the wrong of Willie Davis never appearing on a ballot be righted?

Jay Jaffe: He’d be a candidate for the Golden Days Era Committee ballot, and the good news is that a whole lot of space just opened up there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Past HOF ballot results probably play too big an impact in determining who gets first crack at making those ballots.