Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to another edition of my chat, this one falling on the same day as my father’s 80th birthday. I’ve just completed my annual Replacement Level Killers series, the last installment of which — center fielder and DHs — went up just a couple of hours ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-center-…

Jay Jaffe: I briefly addressed the Rays’ Nelson Cruz acquisition therein, but here’s Dan Szymborski’s writeup, freshly minted for your enjoyment https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tampa-bay-obtains-a-cruz-missile/

Jay Jaffe: Not sure how soon we’ll have analysis of the Mets trading for Rich Hill —  I mean, Dick Mountain — but soon enough.

JD: Will Gallo be traded?

Jay Jaffe: I think so. He’s having an excellent season, making his 2nd All-Star team, comes with a year of club control so the return will be strogner, and he’s versatile enough to fit any team with an OF, 1B, or even DH need.

Jay Jaffe: Still think the Padres and Yankees are the most likely destinations

Dan Szymborski:  Take off every ‘ZIG’!!

Dan Szymborski: It’s chat time!

Dan Szymborski: uh oh

Jon G: There’s been debate on Cubs twitter about how attractive Kimbrel’s 2022 option is in trade. Does ZiPS say anything about how much surplus value that option provides? What would a reliever like Kimbrel expect to get on a one year deal on the market if he limited himself to that structure?

Dan Szymborski: Relievers are always tricky! From my piece today, I think I’m valuing Kimbrel more highly than most of our readers.

Dan Szymborski: I think at the level Kimbrel’s returned to, it does have value.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to my first chat of the second half of the season. I’ve got a piece up today on All-Star Game MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with an eye on the areas he’s improved https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-is-soaring-to-new-hei…

Jay Jaffe: and also not one but two podcast appearances, one with Dan Szymborki for FanGraphs Audio in which we discussed the Home Run Derby, All-Star Game, and Joey Gallo https://t.co/XNafn24I3L, and one with Kevin Goldstein in which we not only discussed the aforementioned festivities and some Hall of Fame stuff but also chatted with a reader who’s getting his PhD in studying graffiti (?!) https://t.co/I8hUS5v68d

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

Steve: What is wrong with Wander Franco? An 80 hit tool? Swings at balls and let’s strikes go by.

Jay Jaffe: Guy’s been in the majors less than a month. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 in 40 games in 2011. As Kevin Goldstein would say, calm down.

Jay Jaffe: Baseball is hard

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got bourbon; let’s do this.

Greg: Your article summed it up well — the Braves are done. So what does a good trade deadline plan look like for them?

Dan Szymborski: I think you have to shop Morton

Dan Szymborski: And I’ strongly consider trading Heredia/Almonte if you can get an interesting sorta prospect for either. They’re not young

Dan Szymborski: Neither should be playing full-time rest of season or Arcia for that matter

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if there’s Smyly interest, but I’d at least inquire

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Denver. I am in a hotel, not at the draft itself. Hope everyone’s doing well.

Eric A Longenhagen: KG and I are still trying to ascertain who is going 1. Pittsburgh hasn’t tipped their hand and nothing concrete coming thru the agents right now.

Jason: Odds on a surprise with Watson at #1?

Eric A Longenhagen: Very remote at this point. He might slip deep into the top 10 based on latest buzz

Robert: Are the Angels the garbage disposal of the top 10 picks or are they being more proactive? Seem all over the place.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’ll snap up a good value guy who falls and if not do Taylor.

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, sorry I’m late. I’ve somehow become entangled in Starlin Castro 3,000 Hit Twitter

Jay Jaffe: My piece on the Cubs’ losing streak and pending teardown just went up a short time ago https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-losing-streak-portends-furthe…

Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I wrote about the state of the Dodgers’ rotation in the wake of Clayton Kershaw’s trip to the IL and Trevor Bauer’s administrative leave https://t.co/VP7Ty2CtNH

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, the queue is filling so let’s get to it. Before I do so, let me caution you that I have absolutely no opinions or knowledge pertaining to the draft. You’re barking up the wrong tree here.

Fat Spielberg: Are you surprised by how few sticky stuff suspensions there have been?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe a little — i’d have guessed one or two guys a week would get nabbed, as a warning to the rest, but so far it’s just Hector Santiago, and he’s appealing the suspension.

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time as foretold has arrived.

Dan Szymborski: So prepare those complaints that people are asking questions about a topic you do not want them to.

Joe: What are your thoughts on going underslot in the first round of the draft? Seems very risky considering how unpredictable the draft gets after the first 15 or so picks.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky, but if you *really* like someone, it can be worth the risk. I dont’ think a hard/fast always/good-always/bad thing works

Dodgers pitching “Depth”: Who will the dodgers pick up? I think Nats should at least get a call but a healthy kluber on a flailing Yankees might be a good move. Or maybe Hendricks if the Cubs flop?

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks is certainly a possibility, but the Cubs may not want to trade him at a low point in his value. I do think the Dodgers will pick up a pitcher of course.