Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my Tuesday FanGraphs chat, not to be confused with the Monday chats that weren’t working, schedule-wise, or the Thursday chats that prevailed before my daughter started preschool. Anyway, I’m here, wiping the sweat from my face after quickly slurping down a spicy bowl of Shin Ramyun, and it’s no coincidence that I just turned on the ESPN KBO replay of the NC Dinos and Doosan Bears. Let’s talk some baseball!

David: What are the chances we get mlb baseball in 2020?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s more likely than not – maybe 2-to-1 in favor — but it’s not going to be ideal, and it will be controversial with regards to the risk factors, the level of testing relative to the population at large, and the protocols with regards to a player testing positive. Buckle up.

C M Keller: I was looking at JAWS for relievers and was surprised to see that Rollie Fingers – a second-ballot Hall of Famer and universally acknowledged top closer of his era – was so low in the rankings. Was he overrated, or is current WAR rating of modern one-inning closers not well-suited for evaluating relievers of, say, 1990 and earlier?

Jay Jaffe: WAR doesn’t work tremendously well for relievers in the first place, and Fingers wasn’t elite at run prevention (120 ERA+, compared to 126 for Gossage, 132 for Smith, 136 for Sutter, 141 for Hoffman, 147 for Wilhelm, and 205 for Rivera). He had a distinctive mustache and played a prominent role on some playoff and championship teams (oh, what might have been had he been healthy enough for the 1982 World Series), so he did have the Fame going for him, but he just wasn’t as dominant as some of his HOF peers.

Sonny: Really appreciate you making this time to chat. Working from home with a toddler these days is no joke. It reminds me of…wait, hold on…Get down from there! How did you get on top of the Fridge!?!…sorry I’m gonna have to call you back.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good day to you, chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope everyone’s as well as can be, let’s dive right in because the first question requires a sizeable answer.

Other Eric: please explain these draft models we hear about

Eric A Longenhagen: So yeah, I can’t recall ever explicitly talking about this, so while I assume a lot of our readers know, I’m gonna give a crude overview right now…

Eric A Longenhagen: If you were to take a ton of data inputs from years and years of draft prospects (this can be anything, like their stats, TrackMan data, size, run times, tool grades, anything) and run a regression to determine which of those inputs correlated with their big league success (or failure) and *how much* they drive it, you’re building a crude model. You can then put this year’s class’ inputs into the model to help line up your board.

Eric A Longenhagen: You can do this across all sports. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/sackseer-2020

Dan Szymborski: AND GOT HERE

Dan Szymborski: I was finishing an article and it was a race against the clock!

Danny Almonte’s fastball: If you could make a chimera of any 2 current pitchers, who would they be for: the best, the most fun to watch, the most unique?

Dan Szymborski: A Bartolo Colon who pitches like Gerrit Cole!

Dan Szymborski: AND HE WOULD BE ALL OF THOSE THINGS

Danny Almonte’s fastball: Player you love who has a surprisingly low WAR?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let’s have a brisk chat.

bk: Regarding the draft, will there be any real team specific, substantiated rumors leading up to it? Or is this just a year of ranking players (as you have), without any real ability to conduct a well sourced mock draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mock drafts are going to be tougher this year because some of who I/we attached to players was based on what personnel were at what games, and then of course that dope was rolled into more dope as we’d call around share that. Now, you have to derive more from agents and from teams without incentive to mislead you in a situation, and both of those are more often impacted by ulterior motives than “This GM is at a game in May” which is typically all signal.

Greg: How does a five-round draft change strategy for teams with extra or fewer picks than normal?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends where those picks are, not just that there are fewer.

Buff: Which team will be your next prospect report, and when will it come out? I live for these reports, have zero interest in KBO or sim league stuff.

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone, and welcome to the chat.

Meg Rowley: I hope everyone is doing well, at least in COVID-19 adjusted terms.

Meg Rowley: A couple of things to highlight – first, Dan’s KBO ZiPS projections are live! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projected-standings-korean-baseb…

Meg Rowley: Tony recapped the ESPN opener: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-wait-is-over-in-the-kbo/

Meg Rowley: Jay has Part 2 of his interview with Dan Kurtz: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nothing-lost-in-translation-meet-dan-kurtz…

Meg Rowley: In non-KBO news, Eric is doing a video series cutting together his Diamondmind play and instructs video. The “pilot” dropped yesterday: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yeomans-work-pilot/