Jay Jaffe: Hey hey folks, happy almost mid-January. Welcome to today’s chat. I’m going to give the queue a few minutes to get stocked. Hot Stove and Hall of Fame questions, ask away

Larry Walker: Can I snatch victory from the JAWS of defeat?

Jay Jaffe: I certainly hope so! But I’m nervous because this doesn’t look like the election days of Raines and Edgar, both of whom sailed in with like 85% in their final years. The recent projections I’ve seen based upon the tracker and various models have gone both ways — just over the line and just short, but with the odds tilting towards the former. I have to admit I’m quite nervous

Dave: Hi Jay, what does your crystal ball say about next week’s announcement of the HOF voting results?

Jay Jaffe: Aside from the nailbiter with Walker, I do think jeter will be unanimous, that Schilling will be in high 60s and Bonds/Clemens in the low 60s.

Travis: The number of ballots tracked by the HoF Tracker is behind last year’s pace – do you sense a reticence from some voters to reveal their choices before the big reveal itself? Is there a reaction by writers with votes to the vitriol on social media? (The Purdy ratio immediately comes to mind)

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, chat. Busy day on the site for a Friday. Go peep the Mets list. Cardinals and Braves run next week (non-zero chance we rope Detroit in with Atlanta) before we move on to the Northwest Valley cluster (TEX, SEA, KCR, SDP)

Eric A Longenhagen: And now, i shall take your questions with gusto

Adam : Do major league teams ever sign veteran players to minor league deals thinking “if we ever have to call this guy up, we’re screwed?”

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m sure if you’re Anaheim and sign an minor league free agent CF youh’re probably thinking that, but generally teams are enthused about the players they’re signing, even when those signigns are just for emergency depth or a shot their player dev can make a relevant change to create viable depth

Trumbo No. 5: Where is in-person scouting most valuable still? At the amateur/HS level? More rural/cold-weather areas without easy showcase access? Where would you aim as a young scout looking to cover under-tread territory?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wherever the data and video are least present (you nailed the general settings) as well as where context is important. The lower you go, the less technological infrastructure there is, the more important scouts are. Unless you have some visual machine learning concept that can identify mechanical inefficiencies, you need an eyeball scout to unearth that stuff, too.

Dan Szymborski: Happy current year everyone!

Dan Szymborski: It is now time. A time for chats.

Alex: Do you think the White Sox are done in FA after Cishek addition?  With their current team, do you think they top 85 wins?

Dan Szymborski: Like most teams, they’re essentially done simply because there’s not a lot left out there! I’m comfortable in the mid-80s somewhere, but we’ll see as we get closer to the year.

Dan Szymborski: I’m happy they have a deal with Luis Robert which means no games on that front.

Dave: If you could pick any 3 current MLB managers to compete in a chili cookoff, who ya got?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout and special guest puppy Poe are within arms distance. Went to the UK/UGA hoops game last night because there is no offseason to scouting elite prospects. Eric and I have been pumping out prospect lists and NYM may go up as early as tomorrow. STL and ATL are both largely done.

Kiley McDaniel: My iPhone decided to pitch a fit this morning so it just got restored and I probably lost a bunch of files but in the scheme of things I probably needed to delete most of those since I was out of space anyway

Kiley McDaniel: As always, you can find all of our prospect information at the prospects home page from the prospects menu across the top of the site

Kiley McDaniel: and many of your questions can be answered at THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa…

Kiley McDaniel: (which has included some key MLB Draft rankings changes/additions in the last week)

Kiley McDaniel: which includes new 2020 RHP Nick Bitsko:

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy new year! It’s been awhile since I got into a rhythm with these chats, so it’s good to be back at it. Hope you all  had a nice holiday break.

stever20: when do you think the Donaldson saga is over?

Jay Jaffe: It sounds like it’s nearing the finish line given that there are apparently multiple 4-year offers out there. I’d imagine we get resolution in the next week

Thank you for the chat!: Would Bryant make sense for the Yanks? Some return around Andujar, Frazier, Deivi, or similar players?

Jay Jaffe: So much of Bryant’s value depends upon the outcome of the grievance and whether he has two years of control remaining instead of one. in the abstract, he’d obviously be a nice upgrade for the Yankees, but how much talent they give up for him hinges upon that decision, which will probably (but not definitely) go against him

Ernie Pantusso: Does Josh Donaldson have a path to the Hall of Fame? Injuries and the fact that he was such a late bloomer will keep his counting stats low, but he’s already met the 7-year JAWS peak standard and has a shot at the career standard since he’s still putting up 6 WAR seasons, plus he’s got an MVP in his pocket. Seems like an interesting case

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from brisk Tempe and Happy New Year, everyone. Hope you had a nice holiday. The 2020 scouting schedule begins in a few weeks here in AZ, so I’m very excited. Let’s talk about some stuff…

I don’t know: Help a debate. Is Yoshi Tsutsugo a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a *rookie* and you could argue we should slot him on the Rays list somewhere because of that. He’s going to be tough to FV since FV is mapped to one’s WAR during the years of team control, which for most everyone we evaluate means six-ish years. If we do that for Yoshi, that certainly encompasses his decline phase, unless perhaps we just do the length of his contract. We haven’t totally settled on it yet but there are problems with dropping him on a list.

Dusty: New year, new opportunity to hear your thoughts on Wander Javier and his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Upside is still the same (there’s power, body projection, INF athletic profile, etc.) but the likelihood he gets there feels lower since now we’ve seen a bunch of at-bats and there’s a clear swing and miss problem right now.

Lava: Who is more likely to become a true ace: Daniel Lynch or Tarik Skubal? What are the odds we see them matching up in the big leagues this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, folks. I’ll spare you links to this week’s work, you know how to find them.

Seth : I know it’s still early, but any 2020 draft prospects who have rapsodo friendly (ie a lot of rise) FBs?

Eric A Longenhagen: We have very little 2020 data at the moment, it’s been harder to source than pro stuff and our current focus is on the pro stuff

The West is Wild: Eggnog: bad or sick?

Eric A Longenhagen: I can really only do a small glass of eggnog/bourbon, too rich. But churn it into ice cream? Now we’re talking.

The West is Wild: Daulton Varsho’s best non-catching position is _________?