Meg Rowley: Hi all, and welcome to the chat. Allow me one more moment of marching orders relaying, and then we’ll get started.

Meg Rowley: Ok, here we go.

Meg Rowley: Hello, baseball folks.

Jimmy: I’m not sure if you do fantasy questions, but would you trade a $2 Julio Rodriguez for a $27 Carlos Correa – currently in 1st, but hate trading away the next best thing!

Meg Rowley: I do not do fantasy questions, mostly because I don’t know anything and would give bad advice.

Xolo: As a fan, how do you handle your team adding a player who you dislike for off the field reasons?

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has begun.

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t going to address this, but there are a *lot* of questions and comments on the topic, so I’m going to make a quick comment and then no more on the subject.

Dan Szymborski: Jonah Keri is someone who I’ve known for a long time and the allegations are as completely and utterly shocking to me as to anyone else.

Dan Szymborski: His alleged conduct is frighteningly awful and I hope the justice system works as it is supposed to.

(not that) James: ZIPS has Soto projected for 48 HR in 2021.  Given his career AVE (89.6) and LA (7.7), does that seem a bit aggressive?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has backed off that somewhat – remember these are preseason runs.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is sitting in her bed next to me, resting after we Trade Valued so hard it affected our sleep patterns.

Kiley McDaniel: Check out the series via the widget at the top of any page to see the whole deal https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-1-to-10/

Kiley McDaniel: some other pieces that have come out in the last week to check out if you haven’t already:

Kiley McDaniel: Craig on some meta stuff with the Trade value list: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/

Kiley McDaniel: Eric on a weird TBR-TEX trade: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/

Kiley McDaniel: Herzenberg on some Cape looks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-dispatch-cape-cod-league/

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to The Chat That Almost Wasn’t. I was scheduled to appear on MLB Now today, with a production meeting in this time slot but last night’s Yankees rainout led to a doubleheader whose opener will be aired on MLB Network, consigning my planned soft on this weekend’s Hall of Fame inductions to the vapors.

Anyway, lots on tap. I’ll be appearing tonight in NYC as part of the Varsity Letters tribute to the late Jim Bouton (https://lpr.com/lpr_events/gelf-magazine-varsity-letters-july-18-2019/). After driving up to Cooperstown tomorrow, I’ll be signing and selling copies of The Cooperstown Casebook on Saturday (https://www.facebook.com/events/2256500964601525/), and then speaking at a SABR meeting on Sunday evening (

)

Eppler: Have you met Tim Mead? Any first impressions?

Jay Jaffe: I have not, but i’m hoping to this weekend. I have heard nothing but great things about him in his capacity with the Angels, and I hope that translates to his work at the Hall, but i have no idea where he stands on some of the issues I hold dear as compared to his predecessor. (Hmmm, that gives me an idea…)

Guest: Wow, I just looked at Xander Boegarts’ DRS numbers and he has been worst in baseball bad every year by a wide margin. Any idea what’s going on here? UZR thinks he’s neutral.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, -14 DRS compared to 0.4 UZR, and a similar contrast last year. First and foremost, let’s remember that UZR specifically does not account for shifts (which are plays made out of zone), and also has a lot of regression built into it.  The Red Sox have yielded a .307 wOBA on shifts, the 8th-worst in MLB. So maybe some of it is that. And some of it must be range, but I’m not totally sure.

Just for FanGraphs: I was reading a BBC article on Instagram because I saw Mike Trout’s name, and was happy to see you quoted heavily as an expert on Mike Trout’s accomplishments.  How much attention do you think baseball will have in Europe thanks to the London games

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, sorry you guys had to wait. Wrapped a call about the international stuff just now, let’ get to it…

Eric A Longenhagen: Only big thing to point to is that we put spin rate for most of the 2019 draft picks on The Board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

CJ: Michael Baumann has been really good in Double A, including a no hitter last night. What is his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s working really heavily with his fastball and a harder cutter (new pitch this year) while other pitches take a back seat. There may be a repertoire depth issue that makes it hard for him to be a traditional starter, but he looks like a good big league arm of some kind now. He’s broken out, certainly, I just wouldn’t expect him to be a star rotation piece.

CJ: Any DSL guys that you are excited about that may not be well known?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s relatively no lag on when we know about someone and stick them on The Board, so almost everyone we have info on is on there. I have two more Blue Jays DSL names I need to ask around on (Montero and D’Ozoria). I guess Alvin Guzman is one we have stuffed really good

Meg Rowley: Hi all! We’ll get started in just a second. Allow me to fetch a glass of water and issue some editing marching orders.

Meg Rowley: Ok, water acquired.

Meg Rowley: Couple of links of interest before we get started.

Meg Rowley: As you’ve probably seen, Kiley is off and running with the Trade Value Series.

Meg Rowley: Today’s installment can be found here, and has links to the prior entries: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

Meg Rowley: Also, RosterResource depth charts are now at FanGraphs!

Dan Szymborski: Release the Chaten!

Roberto Beers: The lull in HS content has left me drifting to other F2P games, namely TFT. Have you played? Thoughts on the AutoChess genre?

Dan Szymborski: Intrigued by it, but haven’t dipped my toes in yet. HS has been fun!

Joe: Do you have updated ZIPS numbers for Tatis? I know his babip can’t stay this good so what are realistic expectations for him?

Dan Szymborski: You should see a WAR update in the trade value series. I may do something more substantial before the offseason.

Matt: Please confirm that your name is not in fact, “Szymbobski”

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. One link for you this morning:

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I podded about Futures Game. It’s a long episode in which we go over our notes and talk about Board changes. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-mcdo…

Nick: I know you guys weren’t excited about the Braves draft after day two. With the six HS picks they’ve now signed from rounds 11-19, how significantly does that change things?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somewhat, they’re adding a bunch of 35+ FV types. Depth is nice, now they need to develop those players.

Chris: The Yankee fans sure think Clint Frazier is worth any player… What’s a realistic one for one trade comp for their fans

Eric A Longenhagen: I have Frazier 50’d, so I think he’s a real piece. Would he, alone, net someone like Matt Boyd or White Merrifield who has 3ish years of control left? Probably not, but he’s a great start.