Dan Szymborski: Happy April!

Matt: My friends keep telling me to reach out to Don Szymbarski to ask about baseball, so here I am, Don. What are your opinions on baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Don can go spit on a sparkplug

Dan Szymborski: (that’s a reference to the TV-version-edited line from Barry Corbin in WarGames)

Canik: In your experience, how does minor league BABIP translate to major league BABIP? I figure that with less batter ball data, less shifting, and inferior fielders in general, it’s safe to shave off about 15 points (or more for pull-heavy guys)?

Dan Szymborski: I have a zBABIP that I use for minor leaguers, as expected it doesn’t translate cleanly

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to today’s chat. I’ve been buried in studying career strikeout rates and totals in anticipation of CC Sabathia’s 3,000th K, which did not go off last night (hency my shelving the piece until next week, most likely). Anyway, on with the show.

Skip: I purchased your book from an online discount book outlet. I saved a ton of money. Then it occurred to me, are you fairly compensated for that purchase? I assume the copies (they had around 100 available) was purchased in bulk from the original purveyor of the book but I have no idea how that works in terms of royalties. Am I a jerk for trying to save some cash?

Jay Jaffe: First off, thanks for your support! I appreciate you taking the time not only to read but to think about your purchase decision, even if you did go with the lowest price (as I quite often do myself).

Basically, the way it works with The Cooperstown Casebook is that I was given a significant advance up front by the publisher, which means that I don’t see any royalties until that figure is reached. And like most books, my sales have not yet reached that mark (in part because the book has not come out in paperback, though I’d make less on those copies). So I wouldn’t sweat the decision too much. I do like it when people choose to support independent bookstores in purchasing the Casebook. You can do so via indiebound.com to find, say, a local one near you; I fulfill requests for signed copies at a bookstore near me in Brooklyn, Greenlight Bookstore. https://cooperstowncasebook.com/2017/07/21/signed-copies-of-the-cooper…

New York Railriders: Do the Yankees have the best AAA lineup in the majors? How have the injuries not stopped yet. Good lord.

Jay Jaffe: Am I the new Jonah Keri? I wrote about Clint Frazier earlier this week and now he’s on the IL.

BenZ: I know they are all somewhat longshots, but how would you rank Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, and David Price in likelihood of reaching the Hall?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is chasing critters in the back yard and I’ll be leaving shortly for a Georgia HS state playoffs double dip, popup RHP Zach Maxwell then popup SS Brennan Milone

Kiley McDaniel: Going to Alabama for at least part of the weekend, seeing rising prep SS Gunnar Henderson tomorrow then the weekend has tons of college options that I’m still sorting through

Kiley McDaniel: If you are already in draft mode and somehow didn’t see yesterday’s mock, here it is: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/

Kiley McDaniel: The dope we’re hearing is mostly top 7-10 picks and not a whole lot of specific stuff beyond that because many of the top 10 picks are kinda shrug emoji we’re not sure who will make it to us, so obviously beyond the top 10 there’s even more of that

Kiley McDaniel: And it’s a lot of “their top evaluators are seeing players x y and z” and “their mix appears to be a b and c” because we specifically know what a couple teams up are thinking (either they tell us off the record or aren’t good at obscuring the truth) and that’s as far as they’ve gotten at this point….so we can’t really give you much more than that for most clubs, even picking up high

Kiley McDaniel: And most of the clubs we speak with in the 10 to 20 area are really interested in who we think they have no chance to get, so they can focus resources on the guys they have a shot at.

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat. We’ll get started in just a second here.

Gene: I’m very bored in Economics. Will the Mets pitching be fine?

Meg Rowley: Hmmm maybe?

henryv: Best former Seattle baseball team name: Pilots, Hustlers, Yannigans, Clamdiggers, Siwashes, Chinooks, or Turks?

Meg Rowley: Clamdiggers or Chinooks imo.

CamdenWarehouse: I was happy to hear you are on the right side of the almond/soy/etc milk vs. juice debate

Dan Szymborski: It has begun.

Dan Szymborski: The chat, which should be obvious from context.

CamdenWarehouse: Is it too April to start wondering seriously if the Orioles can set a new HR allowed record?

Dan Szymborski: Of course not.

Dan Szymborski: They may do it by August.

Josh Nelson: I looked up what the Skyline Coney Dog looks like. I’m kinda mad at you. https://www.skylinechili.com/coneys.php

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the latest edition of our usual Thursday chat. The questions in the queue are piling up, so without further ado…

Corbin Burnes: Do I have a Home Run Problem?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, indeed. 11 home runs in just 17.2 innings, and from among just 19 flyballs. I’ve got an entry devoted to Burnes in the forthcoming companion to yesterday’s piece, which will be titled “Let’s Get Weird, Again: Extreme Pitcher Stats So Far”

stever20: What do you make of Chris Sale?  His career in April normally is pretty good(before this year 2.82 ERA).  So it’s not like he normally starts slowly.  Even brought in his personal catcher and that didn’t help.

Jay Jaffe: I’m more worried about Sale with each passing start, but I think it really comes down to a lack of arm strength brought about by a slow build up this winter. He’s just not the same pitcher if he can’t get his velocity up to where it normally lives, and right now, his fastball is getting tattooed for a 1.095 SLG and a 322 wRC+ (also in today’s forthcoming piece).

Rather than sending him out there every fifth day, I do think the Red Sox should DL him and send him back to extended spring training to ramp up, because he’s not helping them by getting hammered each time out.

Tel: What’s the deal with the playoff odds graphs?  The Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-0 on Tuesday and their playoff odds went down from 91.1% to 84.4%?  The Red Sox went up from 52.8% to 54.4% or so yesterday but this morning are back to 50.7% in the odds numbers dated yesterday.  I know things change based on playing time estimates etc., but what’s the point of a graph if you can’t gloat over your team crushing their rival and moving the needle on the odds?  Seems like if you’re putting up a graph the changes should be based on how the team is playing rather than how Fangraphs staff changed the team’s playing time estimates.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Had a lunch date with friends of the chat Nick Piecoro and Keith Law (name drops) but I’m here to chat with you

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast went up today about my recent Florida trip, extension talk and GOT hot takes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniel-welcomes-th…

Jeff: Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they’ll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it’s probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn’t as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

Shooter : Couple of draft questions…what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

Kiley McDaniel: Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat. Allow me a moment to schedule a post, and then we’ll get started.

Meg Rowley: Alright

Meg Rowley: I am here

Meg Rowley: Thank you for your patience!

dmitry: I get the Yanks, they’ve been killed with injuries.. but why are the Sox so bad so far?

Meg Rowley: Turns out that when your pitching is shaky it can be tricky to win baseball games.