Archive for Daily Graphings

If you’re an avid FanGraphs reader, you might remember a piece I wrote January in which I wondered whether Vladimir Guerrero had the credentials of a Hall of Famer. The verdict? He does. As an inductee, he wouldn’t have the most impressive resume in the Hall, but he’d belong — and, according to the first 44 ballots collected by Ryan Thibodaux by way of his BBHOF Tracker, it appears as though the voters agree:

At 74%, Guerrero is right on the threshold for induction (which requires a candidate is named on 75% of ballots). That means that even if he isn’t selected this year Guerrero will almost certainly gain entry to the Hall next year. Which is great. Guerrero was a fantastic player. He’s deserving.

Larry Walker was also a great player, though. In most important ways, he was a superior one. And he’s received enough votes on previous Hall of Fame ballots to return for a seventh year. Like the previous six years, however, Walker is unlikely to be enshrined in Cooperstown this year — if the early polling holds steady, that is. In light of Guerrero’s seeming popularity, that’s strange. By most reasonable accounts, Walker has a better case. If you vote for Guerrero, you have to vote for Walker.

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Two days ago, I examined what exactly is going on in the San Diego rotation. The notion of a Padres pitcher is almost a philosophical one. Technically there are starting pitchers on the roster, yes, but any resemblance to any quality pitchers, alive or dead, is entirely coincidental.

This is somewhat the case with the group of outfielders currently employed by the Cleveland Indians. I would hesitate to insinuate that these outfielders, who play for a team that reached Game Seven of the World Series, are of a similar quality to the starting pitchers of the Padres. Tyler Naquin, after all, just finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Brandon Guyer could be sitting on his couch at home and stand a good chance of being hit by an errant pitch and being awarded first place. Lonnie Chisenhall is a solid if unspectacular player. And we must remember that for all his injury tribulations this past year and change, Michael Brantley is still one of the more talented players in all of baseball.

Yet when taken altogether, this does not look like the outfield of a team that just won a pennant, nor one that’s expected to contend for a division title. Cleveland’s strength will always be its pitching. The team is built around Francisco Lindor, yes, but it’s also built around Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. These are the men who decide if the team soars or crashes. If the pitching is good, the team will have a chance. They still need good position players, though, and the outfield gives them three opportunities to do that.

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Relievers are the hot new thing, you might have heard. Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen got north of $80 million, plus opt-outs. Mark Melancon got $62 million, plus an opt-out. Mike Dunn got $19 million. Mike Dunn! Perhaps nothing says reliever inflation more than Mike Dunn getting $19 million. Or maybe that just says he signed with the Rockies, and the Rockies are weird. But Colorado bizarreness aside, good relievers aren’t cheap anymore.

Well, unless they’re good in a really weird way, anyway.

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No offense to Welington Castillo, but the hottest topic in Orioles land right now is whether the team should trade Zach Britton. Clubs, unsurprisingly, have shown interest in a possible deal. Scour the web and you’ll find polemics both for and against one. I’m here to argue the latter case.

The Case For Trading Britton

The case for trading Britton isn’t hard to make. He’ll make $11.4 million next year, as projected by MLB Trade Rumors. That’s a lot of scratch for an ostensibly mid-market club to pay someone to pitch 70 innings.

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We can all agree that WAR does a pretty good job of sorting, right? Like, even if you can quibble with the numbers, it paints a pretty good general picture. Good players tend to have better WARs than worse players. Great, okay. Over the past couple seasons, 130 different players have batted at least 1,000 times. Recognize right away there’s selection bias here — it’s mostly just decent players, and better players, who would play that much. The sample is already skewed somewhat toward quality, toward talent. Within that pool, by WAR, Odubel Herrera ranks 38th. He’s statistical neighbors with Daniel Murphy, Dexter Fowler, Dustin Pedroia, and Kole Calhoun. Herrera turns 25 in a couple of weeks, and as a Rule 5 grab, he’s been fantastic.

It makes all the sense in the world that the Phillies would want to get Herrera locked up. And from Herrera’s side, of course he’d want guaranteed money. Two winters ago his old team left him unprotected. There’s vulnerability there, vulnerability no one wants to feel again and again. Herrera now has an extension, which isn’t strange. But it’s another extension that leaves a young player looking like he sold himself short.

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The Angels and Brewers recently made a trade, with Milwaukee ending up with Jett Bandy. I’m going to guess you didn’t linger on the deal, if you heard about it at all. It’s not a move that’s going to change the landscape of either league. But I saw an interesting tweet on Tuesday:

David Stearns says Bandy has plus raw power that hasn’t necessarily shown up in his stats. Playing time split with Susac/Pina remains TBD.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) December 13, 2016

Jett Bandy: plus raw power! But for the most part invisible, at present. This is fairly typical scout-speak, and if you just concentrate on Bandy’s profile, there could be something there. He’s an extreme fly-ball hitter, and he stands 6’4. He turns 27 in March. He could be a really strong guy.

Thinking about the tweet, however, got me thinking about Statcast. What might we be able to learn about raw power from baseball’s new tracking technology?

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When MLB and the Player’s Association agreed to the terms of a new CBA, the most substantial changes came in the rules governing the acquisition of players from other countries. The replacement of the bonus pools with a hard cap on bonus allocations was the big story, but, pretty quickly, people realized that a smaller change — raising the age of players exempt from the bonus pool system from 23 to 25 — could have a major impact on one of the world’s best players.

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Projected standings in December have little value beyond serving as a conversation starter. By our depth charts, remaining free agents are still projected to accumulate more than 50 WAR this season. Consequently, projected standings will continue to change over the rest of the winter as more signings and trades occur. As I said, though, they’re good conversation starters, and one of the more interesting conversations they’ve started this winter revolves around whether or not the Angels might actually be good in 2017.

As things stand right now, the Angels are projected to go 85-77 and finish second in the AL West behind the Astros. Not only that, but those projected 85 wins represent the fourth-highest projected total in all the American League. Does that mean it’s time to start printing up postseason tickets in Anaheim? Of course not. It’s possible, however — even in the middle of the offseason — to get a sense of current roster strengths and weaknesses from the depth charts that appear here. That’s true of every team.

Take a look at the Angels’ depth chart, for example, and you’ll find that they’re doing A-OK in center field thanks to Mike Trout, but that left field is a bit of a weak spot due to the comparatively limited projected production of Cameron Maybin. That’s certainly a conclusion which passes the sniff test.

However, even the use of projections to diagnose roster weaknesses can be misleading. The Angels’ starting rotation currently profiles to finish almost exactly in the middle of the pack among major-league teams — 16th out of 30 — which would represent a significant improvement for one of the league’s worst rotations of the 2016 season. While noting this potential for improvement, though, it’s important to recognize the unavoidable potential for deception in assigning one clean, round number to projected numbers — numbers, that is, which disguise an inherent degree of uncertainty. If Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, and Tyler Skaggs are healthy and productive then, sure, the team is in good position to field an improved starting rotation. As Jeff Sullivan pointed out at the start of the offseason, however, all three of those pitchers carry significant health question marks.

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Bryan Price doesn’t believe in limiting pitchers. That much is clear based on his response to a question I posed during last week’s Winter Meetings. I asked the Cincinnati Reds manager — and former minor- and major-league pitching coach — if there are any changes he’d like to see in the way the organization develops pitchers.

I expected a more cautious answer than I received. Rather than pussyfoot, Price proffered a strong opinion. The way he sees it, babying pitchers in the minor leagues compromises their ability to work deep into games once they reach Cincinnati. Not only that, it can hinder their chances of becoming a top-notch starter.

Note: Price’s comments, which were delivered in a group setting, have been edited for clarity and continuity.

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Bryan Price on developing pitchers: “The big challenge for me, personally, is a world where we want pitchers to throw less. I think they need to throw more. And not just necessarily bulk innings; I think pitchers need to throw more on the side. We have pitchers come through our system who throw bullpen sides of 25 to 30 pitches when we get them. I would like to see them have a bigger workload on their side days. I would like to see some of them throw twice between starts. I would like to see us build our starting pitchers to where they can carry a heavier workload in the minor leagues.

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While we don’t entirely understand the significance of exit velocity yet or how important that sort of data might be, here’s one aspect of it that does appear to be true: the higher the exit velocity, the greater the production to which it will lead.

Armed with that knowledge, I developed a theory — namely, that players who had recorded high exit velocities, but poor production numbers, could expect to see better results going forward. I suspected, conversely, that players who’d recorded low exit velocities and strong production numbers could expect to do worse. I first tested this theory in February, using 2015 data, and it mostly rang true. With 2016 in the books, we have another season’s worth of data to test.

Back in early August, I identified a collection of players with whom to test thistheory. The table below (from that post) features the players who outperformed their exit velocities over the first half of the season. As in the past, this is how I determined if a player was over- or under-performing:

I created IQ-type scores for exit velocity and wOBA from the first half of last season based on the averages of the 130 players in the sample. In each case, I assigned a figure of 100 to the sample’s average and then, for each standard deviation (SD) up or down, added or subtracted 15 points.

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