Today’s Feature Focus covers WAR Graphs, a quite underutilized tool in my opinion. (We’re called FanGraphs after all, and this is a Graph that you can make, as a Fan.) The tool is accessed near the bottom of the Leaders menu, under WAR Tools:
That’ll send you to this landing page, a blank canvas for adding players:
After selecting players, you’ll be welcomed with three graphs: nth Best Season, Cumulative WAR by Age, and WAR by Age. The view defaults to showing all three, but you can toggle at the top:
Steve Sparks is a good storyteller, which serves him well in the broadcast booth. Now in his 14th season working alongside Robert Ford, Sparks forms one half of a Houston Astros radio team that ranks among the best in the business. He used to throw knuckleballs for a living. Pitching for five teams from 1995-2004, primarily the Detroit Tigers, the 61-year-old Tulsa, Oklahoma native took the mound 270 times to the tune of a 59-76 won-lost record and a 4.88 ERA. All told, he faced 626 different batters over 1,319 2/3 innings of work.
How well does he remember his more-notable matchups? Following in the footsteps of Geoff Blum, David Cone, Mark Grant, Mark Gubicza, Jeff Montgomery, and Dan Petry — links to those pieces can be found on their player pages — Sparks sat down for the seventh installment of our Challenging Career Quiz.
I began by asking which batter he faced the most times.
“It would probably have to be somebody in the American League Central,” replied Sparks, whom I spoke with at Fenway Park in early May. “I’ll say Frank Thomas.”
His guess was spot on. Sparks faced Thomas 60 times, with “The Big Hurt” going 13-for-49 with three home runs, nine walks, and a pair of plunkings. His memories of the Hall of Famer?
“I had the impression that he couldn’t reach the outside corner,” Sparks told me. “I felt like if I had to go somewhere, throwing a fastball or a cutter, I could go away to Frank Thomas. I found out very quickly that I was wrong. He was so far off the plate that I didn’t think he could reach it. But he could. Read the rest of this entry »
Andre Pallante starts for the Cardinals on Tuesday, and if he beats Michael King and the Padres, he’ll move into a tie for the National League lead in wins.
I know we’re not supposed to care about wins, but it gives me a chance to talk about a pitcher I’ve had a hard time understanding over his five seasons in St. Louis. I should be more specific, because Pallante’s game is pretty straightforward. That I understand just fine. I just can’t figure out if he’s any good or not. Read the rest of this entry »
Shohei Ohtani made his first start on the mound for the Dodgers one year ago today, following a nearly two-year recovery from Tommy John surgery. He threw 28 pitches, exited after the first inning as planned, and flashed great stuff, even if he looked occasionally frustrated with his command. He ramped up slowly from there, from one inning to two to three to eventually six by the fall. He stamped his health with a dominant, 10-strikeout performance in NLCS Game 4 to send the Dodgers to the World Series.
Ohtani has now made 25 starts (of some length) since his return. Not only has he excelled individually over the last year, but his renaissance has run parallel with that of the Dodgers rotation.
Let’s start there: The 2025 Dodgers weren’t a powerhouse. They were great, and I’m sure they’re content with their second consecutive World Series trophy. But they weren’t quite the behemoth we’d seen in the past. They didn’t lock up the NL West until game 159. They finished with their fewest wins since 2018 and “worst” pythag record since 2016. We can see their win rate over 162 games has steadily fallen from its peak of 118 wins in late 2022. Read the rest of this entry »
We’re coming up on the halfway point of the season, and the playoff picture in both leagues is still as muddy as ever. That should make for an interesting trade deadline, with a bunch of teams seemingly on the cusp of making a run and only a few true sellers.
Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula. Read the rest of this entry »
After building a 4 1/2-game lead just a few weeks ago, the Guardians (39-33) are now in a virtual tie with the upstart White Sox (38-32) atop the AL Central. As the two teams continue to battle for the division lead, however, the Guardians will have to do without their biggest star for the next several weeks. During Saturday’s 3-1 victory over the Tigers, José Ramírez fractured the hamate in his left hand, an injury that will require surgery and sideline him until some time after the All-Star break.
Ramírez suffered the injury during a fifth-inning plate appearance against Tarik Skubal, who was making his return from surgery to remove loose bodies in his elbow. According to manager Stephen Vogt, the slugger first felt the injury while swinging at a slider that he popped foul. He grounded out on the next pitch, and while he hoped to remain in the game because outfielders Angel Martínez and Chase DeLauter had already exited due to injuries, he was replaced by Daniel Schneemann — who had initially replaced DeLauter as a pinch-runner — at the start of the sixth inning.
“He tried to go back out,” said Vogt of Ramírez. “He knew the position we were in, grabbed his glove. He said, ‘Maybe I can at least play defense,’ and couldn’t squeeze his glove. [He] wanted to get back out there to help us win that game and just couldn’t.” Read the rest of this entry »
I write to you from a place of hiding. The Phillies’ outfield situation has taken a turn for the worse, and the team has sent out a multitude of agents in response. The Phanatic and his lieutenants — green and fuzzy, mounted on quad bikes, armed with hot dog launchers — are now scouring the countryside in search of able-bodied right-handed adults. From Lancaster to Lakewood, from New Brunswick to New Castle, they maraud over hill and dale. If you own a baseball glove and can bat, you’re liable to be pulled from your bed in the dead of night and dragooned, press-ganged, and otherwise cajoled into service as the Phillies’ right fielder. Read the rest of this entry »
Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA Today Network via Imagn Images
Last week, the illustrious Ben Clemens wrote about the state of the bunt, because the state of the bunt, as it turns out, is strong. Hitters are bunting more often, picking their spots better, and finding greater success. It’s a bunting renaissance. He didn’t appear in Ben’s article, but Milwaukee’s David Hamilton is at the forefront, leading the league with 10 bunt hits and 23 total bunts. It’s just the 12th time this decade a player has reached 23 bunts in a season, and we’re only halfway through June! Ben noted that 74.1% of bunts have been successful – meaning the bunt resulted in either a hit, an error on the defense, or a sacrifice – the highest mark in the universal DH era. With so much bunt in the air (and on the ground), I got to wondering how pitchers can fight back.
The first line of defense is to alter your positioning. You bring your third baseman in, play the corners in, put on the wheel play. But I wanted to come at it from another angle. If you’re a pitcher, and you want to make sure the batter at the plate doesn’t get a successful bunt down, what can you do? The two biggest things you can control are your pitch type and location. I dug into the Statcast data on bunts and attempted bunts over the past 18 years. This is not earthshaking research, and some of what I found is fairly intuitive, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it laid out, and I definitely haven’t seen any numbers behind it. Read the rest of this entry »
Like many of us, Jake Burger is tuning in to as many World Cup matches as his schedule allows. The Texas Rangers first baseman is a big fan of “the beautiful game,” and has been for well over a decade. Moreover, it isn’t just the US national team that captures his attention. Burger is an ardent supporter of Tottenham Hotspur, one of the more prominent sides in the English Premier League.
How and when did the 30-year-old St. Louis native come to embrace a team based in North London?
“I became a Spurs fan probably around 2011-2012,” Burger told me. “Gareth Bale and Luka Modrić were my two favorite players. It kind of started with me playing [the FIFA video game] and knowing a lot of those names. Modrić was a wizard out there. Bale, too. Then, obviously, Harry Kane came over to Spurs and I became a big fan of his. They kind of went on a run when Mauricio Pochettino came in [as manager], so following them just became more a part of my life.
“In 2019, I got to go over there to the new stadium and watch a game,” Burger added. “They played Bournemouth and won 3-2. I went over with Ryan Burr and Jimmy Lambert, who were in the White Sox organization with me, and we saw a few other matches, as well. Lambert is a Liverpool fan, and Burr a Man City fan, so along with the Tottenham game we went to a Manchester Derby and a Merseyside Derby; we saw Liverpool play Everton.”
Being a Tottenham fan this past season was anything but easy. Had they lost their final match, they would have been relegated from England’s top league for the first time in nearly 50 years. Much to the relief of Spurs supporters everywhere, they defeated Everton 1-0 to remain safe. Read the rest of this entry »
Bryce Elder was thriving when he was featured here at FanGraphs in July 2023. Then in his first full season with the Atlanta Braves, the now 27-year-old right-hander was 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA, and he’d recently been named an NL All-Star. Killing worms was his M.O. Relying heavily on a sinker, Elder boasted a 53.6% groundball rate, which ranked fifth best among qualified pitchers.
Then things slowly started going south. From August 2023 through last season, Elder was on the winning end of just 14 decisions while putting up a 5.53 ERA over 48 starts comprising 259 innings. The University of Texas product had gone from a burgeoning frontline starter to profiling as more of a back-of-the-rotation arm.
Adversity has a way of begetting change, and much for that reason, Elder is no longer the same pitcher who struggled to record outs. The transformation has taken a bit of time — Rome wasn’t built in a day — but his current-season results are certainly pleasing to the eye. Over 14 starts, Elder has a record of 5-3 to go with a 2.66 ERA and a 3.46 FIP over 84 2/3 innings. Notably, his 45.0% groundball rate is the lowest of his career.
Elder discussed his evolution — one that has essentially brought him full circle in terms of success — when the Braves visited Fenway Park late last month.
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David Laurila: It’s been three years since we first spoke. What has changed?
Bryce Elder: “A lot has changed. When we talked in 2023, I’d been on a roll; I’d had a good first half. But then the second half was pretty rough. It wasn’t all rough, but the numbers weren’t all that great. I was kind of like, ‘I’m tired of sucking, tired of not being very good, so I’m going to try to make some changes. I’d never worked on mechanics too much, and I’d never been a big, like, stuff chaser, but I got tired of dying on the hill of complete execution.
“I never thought I’d be saying that, even a year ago. But what I figured out is that if I could make my stuff a little better, that would only help. And then, if I was moving a little better on the mound, my execution was going to be just as good as it’s ever been, if not better. So, I think I’ve had a little tick up in stuff, as well as in my execution.”
