As we head into mid-August, there are roughly 50 games left for each team on the schedule, and we’re reaching the point of the season where we can begin to cull the list of potential candidates for the three major awards. So, today, let’s take a look at the legitimate MVP candidates in both leagues, and handicap how this might play out over the next six weeks.
Last week, I wrote a post asking whether Carlos Correa might already be the best shortstop in baseball. There is no consensus opinion on that one — a big group of people think he just might be, and another big group of people don’t think he’s proven enough. That’s all totally fine; it wouldn’t be an interesting question if we absolutely knew the answer. The main point is there’s a chance; Correa has been that outstanding. Since the All-Star break, for example, he’s tied for sixth among all position players in WAR. The guy he’s tied with is sometimes-shortstop Jung-ho Kang.
I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that Kang might be the best shortstop in baseball. He hasn’t performed at the level for long enough, nor does he quite have the defensive profile. Increasingly, however, it’s becoming clear that Kang was a hell of a find. His second-half offense has been about on par with Josh Donaldson and Chris Davis. Kang, in his rookie season, has shown several signs of promising development. The easiest possible explanation for each? It’s noise. Total randomness, devoid of any meaning. But I’m going to offer an easy alternate explanation. Kang seemingly keeps getting better. Maybe it’s obvious why.
When the Padres decided to sell nothing at all at the trade deadline, one of the public explanations was that the team didn’t want to give up on the playoffs. And one of the explanations for that line of thinking was that the schedule looked pretty soft, so the Padres would have a chance to rack up some much-needed wins against lesser competition. At the time, it seemed more like a fantasy. And now the Padres’ odds are somehow even longer. Their season, for all intents and purposes, is finished. For, this past weekend, they were swept at home by the Phillies.
The Phillies, who are having trouble losing. I don’t know how to gauge public awareness, but just in case you haven’t noticed, the Phillies are playing some really good baseball. I imagine a lot of people tuned out entirely once Cole Hamels went away, and the season started so poorly it wasn’t even worth acknowledging the Phillies’ record, but, as hot as the Blue Jays are at the moment, the Phillies might be no cooler. It’s the Phillies who have baseball’s best record since the All-Star break, at 16-5. You’ll recall it was the Phillies who had baseball’s worst record at the All-Star break, at 29-62. A 52-win pace became a 123-win pace, and while we can still say with a high degree of certainty that the Phillies as presently built are not good, this is the sort of run that has to be talked about. Three or so weeks of the Phillies winning more than anyone else. For those three weeks, I can offer three thoughts.
Unless he changes his name to Mike Trout and has some pretty impressive plastic surgery, there’s not a strong argument to be made for Mark Teixeira as the AL MVP this season. Teixeira currently leads the Yankees in FanGraphs WAR at 3.3 but he’s only 14th in WAR among AL batters, behind the likes of Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, and, well, 11 others. Throw in pitchers and there are seven more above Teixeira. So despite having quite a comeback season and despite being the best hitter on a first place team, Teixeira isn’t in the AL MVP conversation.
But what if we try hard to put him there? Maybe we can find something we’re missing, some way that, even if things stay as they are through the rest of the season, Teixeira deserves to carry the mantle of best player in the American League. It’s probably a stretch, but what the heck! What else is a guy to do on a Sunday night? (Please, please don’t answer that.)
Right off the bat, and you know this is going to be good because I’m already resorting to baseball-themed cliche, I should acknowledge that leading the league in WAR doesn’t necessitate winning the MVP, but for our purposes here, it’s an easy way to sort players, especially since the presumed leader in the race also happens to be the leader in WAR. So convenient!
Including pitchers, there are 21 players with a higher WAR than Teixeira so far this season. Moving a guy from 22nd to first without him actually doing anything is a lot to ask, but here we go! We can start off by saying this: pitchers shouldn’t win the MVP. Pitching is a completely different position and necessitates different skills and should be judged independently. That’s why pitchers have the Cy Young award. Do I believe this? No! But it works here and we press onward! So drop the seven pitchers from the list and Teixeira moves up to 14th. That’s progress! I wish all my housing projects were this easily accomplished.
Just before the trade deadline, the Braves, Marlins, and Dodgers struck a big deal, at least in terms of quantity of players and money being moved around; 13 players changed uniforms, and when the dust settled, the Dodgers came away with a trio of pitchers to upgrade their staff: starters Alex Wood and Mat Latos, along with reliever Jim Johnson. While they had been a heavily-rumored destination for frontline pitchers like David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Cole Hamels, the Dodgers ultimately decided to with depth over star power, adding multiple good arms rather than one great one.
Of course, a large driver of that decision was the relative cost, as they could acquire these kinds of pitchers without surrendering any of their best young talents, and they’ll also control Wood’s rights through the 2019 season; he won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after next year, so he’s going to make something close to the league minimum next year. So, while no one thinks Wood is on David Price’s level as a pitcher, he offered a better value when future years of control and financial obligations are factored in.
But choosing Wood and Latos over one better pitcher wasn’t just about getting a cheaper pitcher, or even just about getting a guy they could control for multiple years. In Alex Wood, the Dodgers were attempting to buy low on an asset with significant upside, which is exactly the kind of move that they’ve been making ever since Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi took over the baseball operations department last winter.
If you want to know why the Braves were willing to trade a 24 year old pitcher with four years of control remaining after this season, you can essentially sum up their reasoning in one easy table.
Zach Putnam has thrown 61.4% splitters and 24.7% cutters so far this season. If you think that’s unique, you’re right. No other MLB pitcher approximates that ratio.
The White Sox reliever is one of only five pitchers (minimum 30 innings) who utilize each of the two offerings at least 10% of the time. Alfredo Simon – 35% splitters and 14.6% cutters – comes closest to Putnam’s particular mix. Masahiro Tanaka throws 25.7% splitters and 10.7% cutters. Kendall Graveman is 25.7% cutters and 11.1% splitters. Jeff Samardzija is 24.8% cutters and 11.1% splitters. (numbers through Friday.)
Putnam’s 61.4% splitter usage is currently the highest in either league. Koji Uehara is next at 60.2% (and throws a cutter once in a blue moon).
The 28-year-old right-hander has thrown a splitter since his days at the University of Michigan. He turned to the cutter more recently. Read the rest of this entry »
With the trading deadline now one week in the rear-view mirror, it is much too early to truly understand that impact that the players will have on pennant races. The Toronto Blue Jays went from among a crowd of American Wild Card contenders to favorites for the Wild Card with a potential chance to catch the Yankees. Teams like the Houston Astros, New York Mets, and Kansas City Royals all made significant additions to help them in their chase to the playoffs and potential success once October arrives. It is not too early, however, to discuss the impact on payroll that those changes have had on the dealing teams.
The Blue Jays have made the biggest moves of the season, but those moves did not have the biggest impact on payroll. Contenders like the Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, and Houston Astros made multiple moves that had an even greater effect on their payrolls while sellers like the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers made moves that cleared significant space on the payroll.
Of the 30 Major League Baseball teams, only the Arizona Diamondbacks refused participate. More than 100 players changed teams at the deadline. Considering only those players making more than close to the major league minimum salary, nearly $100 million in 2015 rest of the season salary was moved at the end of July. The graph below took into account every single move made near the trading deadline where more than a minimum salary was added to the payroll. Focusing first only on additions made to payroll without considering subtractions, the Blue Jays do take the top spot. Data from Cot’s Contracts. Read the rest of this entry »
The Nationals have not played very well in the second half. This isn’t news. Since the break, they have an 8-12 record and have been outscored by 11 runs. This isn’t a soul-crushing stretch by any means, but when your competition is red hot, a stretch where you’re only scoring 3.65 runs per game can certainly seem soul crushing. The interesting question to me is what the Nationals can do about it? Are they content to just wait this out and take the patient approach that eventually their hitters will snap out of it, or is it time for action? Actually, let’s rephrase that — what actions can the Nationals even take?
We know that the Nationals have a great pitching staff. Their bullpen unit is solid. The core unit they’ve relied on the most the past 30 days — Aaron Barrett, Casey Janssen, Felipe Rivero, Tanner Roark and Drew Storen — has done pretty well. The worst xFIP- among those pitchers for the past 30 days is Rivero’s 114. For the season, the highest belongs to Janssen at 108. Perhaps there isn’t enough reliability in that group, especially given Storen’s playoff experience. So to that mix they have added Jonathan Papelbon. Potential problem addressed.
Read the rest of this entry »
As he celebrates his 24th birthday, it’s worth asking if there’s anything Mike Trout can’t do. In any case, there apparently is one more thing he can do.
It got lost in the haze of the week of the trade deadline, but I want to take you back to a recent Trout performance against the Rangers. Let’s look at a pitch that Nick Martinez threw. The approximate location:
Clearly low, clearly inside (relative to the middle of the plate). Trout swung, and this is where the ball went:
Home run, right field. Now, for a lot of players, it’s enough to hit one home run. I’ve set up what’s going to follow. A full-count pitch later in the same game, thrown by Spencer Patton:
Another pitch in. Another Trout swing. The result:
That, to the opposite side of center field. Twice in one game, Trout went deep. Twice in one game, Trout went deep to what could technically be referred to as the opposite field. Twice in one game, Mike Trout did that on inside pitches. Intuitively, that seems like a hard thing to do. When you think about it, it follows that inside pitches get pulled, and outside pitches get pushed. That is, generally, the way things go, at least when you’re talking about balls hit with authority. But, see, Trout has learned something.
In terms of the baseball news cycle, the trade deadline — which passed less than a week ago, you might recall — is officially old news. But, as Wilmer Flores and the New York Mets very accidentally and very effectively reminded us, the trade deadline always has been and always will be a group of real-live human beings subjected to a gauntlet of some of the most mundane and anxiety-producing ordeals of the modern age: pursuit of a new residence, extensive travel, nagging doubts about one’s job performance.
While their trades are old news, more than a few of the players who were moved at the deadline no doubt have their heads still spinning from the unexpectedly grueling calendar that befell them. If their performance has faltered, may they have our sympathy — and if it has not, may they have our further admiration:
