Archive for Daily Graphings

Jorge Polanco, Walk-off King

There have been very few reasons for joy in Minnesota this year. The Twins entered the season as slight favorites to win their third-straight AL Central division crown, but an early slump in April buried them in the standings and they haven’t sniffed the postseason race since. For a team with no hope of playing October baseball, the dog days of August can feel a bit monotonous — unless a little artificial excitement can be created by winning a bunch of close games. Indeed, the Twins last three wins have all been walk-offs, and to make things even more interesting, Jorge Polanco has driven in the winning run in each of them.

On Sunday afternoon, the Twins were wrapping up a three-game series against the Rays. They had split the previous two games and had taken two of three from the White Sox before that. After climbing to a 4-0 lead through four innings, Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed four runs to score in the next three frames. The game went into the bottom of the ninth inning tied. Max Kepler led off with a double down the left field line and advanced to third after Austin Meadows misplayed the ball in the corner. Read the rest of this entry »


A Journey Through the History of MLB Mascots

It all began with Mr. Met.

The orb-headed, future enemy of Noah Syndergaard, was the first modern mascot of a major league team to appear live in-game, rather than merely as a drawing or on printed marketing materials. Other teams, like the Brooklyn Dodgers, had employed entertainers who became unofficial mascots for their clubs, but Mr. Met represents the first case of an intentionally designed character becoming an in-person mascot. Mr. Met first debuted in print in 1963; he was heavily featured in the team’s preseason marketing and was portrayed on scorecards and in programs throughout the year. In 1964, he made his first live appearance. He remained a consistent part of the team’s iconography until 1979, when he was removed from use; the character remained on the bench until 1994.

What Mr. Met represented was a modern-era shift for baseball. Fans had traditionally been a more raucous crowd that consisted primarily of adults, and teams at the time were making an effort to appeal more to families. The presence of large, cartoonish characters made ballparks feel like a more welcoming environment for those attending with small children. Mr. Met, who was quickly joined by Mrs. Met, ushered in a new experience, and over the following decades, almost every major league team followed suit, adding their own mascots to entertain game-day fans.

We can give Mr. Met credit for being the first official live mascot of a major league team, but another character set the tone for some of the most popular mascots to follow: the San Diego Chicken. The Chicken is an interesting example of a team representative because the San Diego Padres did not set out to find or create an entertainer for their games. The Chicken, played by Ted Giannoulas, originally did events for KGB-FM Radio. Upon having some success distributing Easter eggs to children, Giannoulas pitched his services to the Padres. At the time, he just wanted a way to get into games for free, but after his 1977 debut, he went on to portray the character for almost 50 years, albeit with a few breaks over the decades. For instance, in 1979, he was fired from the radio station and had to fight for the right to wear the chicken suit, and there were a few other planned absences as well. But those gaps aside, the Chicken was quite popular, even making its way to television, where, alongside Johnny Bench and Tommy Lasorda, it served as the co-host of a popular children’s series called “The Baseball Bunch,” a program aimed at introducing baseball and its players to a younger audience.

The Chicken popularized a certain type of mascot. You can see aspects of it in almost all of the other mascots in the majors. Its big, child-friendly, stuffed animal look became the template from which the next generation of mascots were drawn. That aesthetic is probably best exhibited in the Phillie Phanatic, who debuted in 1978 and is likely the best-known and most recognizable mascot currently in the game.

There’s a simple reason these more child-friendly designs gained popularity — they worked. Some teams had made much earlier attempts at mascots, but they were frankly more horrifying than they were appealing, proving to be disquieting to both adults and children. The Chicago Cubs made efforts as far back as 1908, when they introduced a nameless bear mascot that might remind modern observers more of the finale of Midsommar than a rollicking good time at the ballpark. Unlike Mr. Met, the bear wasn’t a mascot in the traditional sense. The team had no intention of him appearing for the entire season. Indeed, he actually only came to amuse the crowd for a single game. (The polar bear costume was on loan from a local production of “The Top o’ th’ World.”)

The Cubs did win the World Series the season that the terror bear made an appearance, so perhaps they should have kept it around a bit longer. Instead, the team switched to live bear cubs for a time, including the best-known of the group, a cub named Joa (named for Cubs co-owner J. Ogden Armour). Again, we can’t consider these mascots in the same way we think of them now, as they didn’t perform and generally caused more harm than good. Ultimately, though, it wasn’t the moral failing of keeping a live animal on display that forced the Cubs to change their policy on the actual cubs, but rather that the pint-sized bears kept biting people, including the players. Sadly, the cubs who were not sold to the Lincoln Park Zoo met slightly grimmer ends. (The team’s current mascot, Clark, canonically escaped the zoo after hearing enthusiastic hollering coming from Wrigley Field and deciding he desperately needed to see a game in person. Mascot biographies are a wild ride.)

Between the introduction of Mr. Met in the 1960s and the mid-80s establishment of “The Baseball Bunch,” almost every major league club got a mascot of its own. While official mascots have changed somewhat over the decades, they’re still a mainstay for most teams. At present, there are only three major league teams with no official mascot: the Los Angeles Angels, the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the New York Yankees. Given that the two Los Angeles-based teams are so close to Disneyland, it’s somewhat surprising that they haven’t embraced a costume-clad ambassador of their own, but they remain firmly mascotless. The Angels do have a rally monkey, but it’s not an official mascot as much as a part of the club’s iconography. Before they moved to Los Angeles, the Dodgers briefly had a mascot named Weary Willie, who we’ll return to a bit later. The Yankees, however, might have one of the best examples of a failed mascot of any major league team.

In 1979, without any advanced warning to fans or even a proper introduction, the Yankees unveiled Dandy. Unlike the Cubs’ first crack at a mascot, Dandy was actually pretty adorable. He had more in common with the round-bodied characters we see now, with a big belly and fur that resembled the iconic Yankee pinstripes. Dandy sported a long, red handlebar mustache, and carried a comically oversized bat. But the mascot’s initial welcome was anything but warm. According to Rick Ford, who wore the Dandy costume that first day, “Nobody had any idea what I was or what I was doing there. They just looked at me like, ‘What the hell is this thing?’”

Dandy had the right pedigree to be a beloved team icon. He was created by Bonnie Erickson and Wayde Harrison, the same masterminds behind the incredibly popular Phanatic, and had the same kind of goofy charm to his appearance. But he never resonated with Yankees fans. No one knew the character’s name and he was never given an official welcome. Erickson later confessed that the duo hadn’t really been given much direction in terms of what the Yankees actually wanted out of a mascot. “We knew they were interested in increasing family attendance, and they thought this was the way to do it. They left the design up to me.” In addition to not giving Erickson and Harrison much guidance in the design process, the Yankees didn’t offer much help to Ford in terms of how to be a mascot. “Nobody at the Yankees gave me any direction. I was just making it up as I went along,” he admitted.

Dandy’s poor conception and botched introduction might have spelled doom on their own, but it was likely the untimely death of Thurman Munson later in 1979 that ultimately brought an end to the mascot. While Erickson was not familiar with the Yankees catcher, there’s no way to dispute that Dandy, with his distinctive mustache, bore a striking resemblance to the beloved player. Following Munson’s passing, Dandy became an even more unwelcome presence. While Ford continued to don the costume for another two seasons, the character was quietly retired by the team by 1981. The Yankees have not attempted a mascot since, and there are few in the current front office who will acknowledge they ever had one.

The Yankees aren’t the only team that would like to bury the memory of a mascot. Earlier, I mentioned Brooklyn Dodgers mascot Weary Willie, who was actually something of an icon during his heyday. Willie, as portrayed by Emmett Kelly, was a sad-faced clown who was meant to be a representation of a Depression-era hobo. He rose to fame during his tenure with Ringling Brothers Circus, but took the 1956 season off from the circus to clown for the Dodgers. While Mr. Met represents the earliest iteration of modern mascots (at least as recognized by MLB), Willie helped set the tone for how mascots engage with a crowd and keep things exciting amidst lulls in the game action. Willie was not considered a mascot by the team but rather in-game entertainment. While we think of those things going hand-in-hand now, it’s a slight distinction that keeps Mr. Met’s status as the first of his kind intact.

During the 1950s, when the Dodgers were still based in Brooklyn and bore the nickname of “dem bums,” it made sense to have a hobo character as a comical foil to entertain fans mid-game. Kelly, who often also joined the team for spring training, moved with them to Los Angeles, but ultimately left after the 1962 season, feeling that the Dodgers new home was simply “too big for one clown.” It’s likely best that Kelly’s tenure ended on his own terms, as it’s hard to imagine that such a character would have been appropriate on-field fodder for much longer.

It’s the Atlanta Braves, though, that might have the worst former mascot in modern baseball history. The team, which still comes under fire for its name, as well as the oft-discussed “Tomahawk Chop” performed by the crowd, once leaned even further into racial stereotypes in the form of their mascot. Today’s fans might be most familiar with Blooper, the club’s current mascot that was introduced in 2018, and those around in the 1970s and early 80s might recall the Bleacher Creature, who roamed the stands from 1977-81. But it’s the memory of Chief Noc-A-Homa that the organization would likely prefer to forget. Chief Noc-A-Homa pre-dated and also outlasted the Bleacher Creature, staying with the team from 1966-85. Notably, the Chief character, who had a tepee set up in the left-field seats, was not in a suit or oversized costume, but was played by a real person dressed as a Native American chief. Chief Noc-A-Homa was primarily portrayed by an actual Native American, with Levi Walker playing the part for over a decade. In 1983, the Braves also briefly added Princess Win-A-Lotta to the rotation, but she only lasted for one season.

Noc-A-Homa didn’t stir up much controversy at the time in the local Atlanta media, though he was mentioned in Russell Means’ 1972 lawsuit against the Cleveland Indians as being equally as problematic as Chief Wahoo. Walker went on the radio during the lawsuit to defend himself as well as the Cleveland organization, and ultimately the Noc-A-Homa character remained in place. After the 1985 season, Walker made it clear that the $60 per game he was making to play the mascot wasn’t enough, and rather than increasing his pay, the club decided to part ways with him, citing missed appearances. (Walker also admitted that he had asked out several female fans while on the job, one of whom turned out to be the daughter of a Braves executive.) The team did not recast the role, and in spite of fans who had grown superstitious about Chief Noc-A-Homa’s presence and a grassroots campaign in 1991 to bring him back during the Braves’ postseason push, the mascot hasn’t returned. With the benefit of hindsight, though, it’s clear why the Braves didn’t want to bring Walker back in 1991 (or at any time since) and why the team hasn’t used the “Screaming Indian” logo since it last appeared on a batting practice cap in 2012, though much like the Chief Wahoo design, MLB retains the right to use the logo. Many professional sports teams are finally responding to pressure from Indigenous groups to change outdated and racist team names, and those that do so seem to want to create distance between their current policies and the choices they made in the past. The Braves have a long way to go in this regard. They have not indicated any long-term plans to adopt a new name, and despite outside pressure, they have not eliminated the “Tomahawk Chop.” The team still dims the lights during opposing pitching changes, which prompts fans to light up their cell phones and participate in the longstanding, and troubling, tradition.

As some mascots have fallen out use, their broader role has continued to evolve over the years. We now find ourselves in a time where professional sports mascots can mean more to a team than just in-game amusement for the kids in attendance. The New York Times recently reported on how the branding for the Rocket City Trash Pandas helped generate $4 million in sales of merchandise featuring team mascot Sproket. Considering that even the most valuable minor league teams earn about $15 million a season in total revenue, earning $4 million in merchandise sales shows the incredible power of having a good mascot.

The value of mascots to clubs may be shifting as time progresses, and we’re seeing some teams achieve moments of pop culture relevance via their performers and branding. The Trash Pandas might not have the same reach outside of their sport as the Philadelphia Fliers do with Gritty, their giant orange monster who has transcended hockey to be his own entity, but the popularity of Sproket helped make the Trash Pandas a success before they’d won a single game. Mascots may primarily be used to appeal to children and get crowds amped up during games, but they can also impact a club’s bottom line.

There have been stumbles along the way, with teams learning from the growing pains of their off-putting or downright scary creations. Sometimes those missteps have led to teams abandoning mascots altogether, as the Yankees have done. Other teams have moved on from mascots with overtly racist overtones, replacing them with characters more in line with the style of the San Diego Chicken, as the Braves have done with Blooper. Mascots can be a charming part of the fan experience, but like all other aspects of baseball history, they are not without their failings, and it’s important to recognize the bad along with the good. And while mascots may be meant to appeal mostly to children, they also bring out the kid in all of us.


The Shreds of Some Platoon Insights

I’ll warn you up front: this article is going to be a loose description of some research I’m working on, plus a copious amount of rambling. I’ve been looking for non-handedness platoon effects a lot recently. Partially, it’s because they’re fun to look at. It’s also because the Giants seem to be using some non-handedness platoons to good effect this year — they’re certainly doing more than just picking left or right based on the opposing pitcher.

I haven’t finished exploring this one yet. So why write an article about it? People like to read articles — but also, I get a lot of good ideas from reading the comments (this being perhaps the only site on the internet where that’s a reasonable sentence) and I could use some inspiration in terms of more things to do here. Without further ado, let’s talk inside/outside splits.

Listen to a game, and you can’t miss it. Announcers will tell you that some players are adept at taking an outside pitch and hitting it the other way, or turning on anything inside and giving fans some souvenirs. I split the plate into thirds, then used those thirds to define three zones: anything on the inside third or off the plate inside is “inside,” anything on the outside third or off the plate outside is “outside,” and the rest is the middle.

Here’s something right off the top: Bryce Harper has destroyed inside pitches this year. He’s seen 441 of them and produced 22 runs above average. That counts good takes as well as solid contact, but his batting line is spectacular, too — .367/.480/.735, good for a .497 wOBA. Give him something he can pull, and it’s all over but the crying.

If you can manage to stay on the outer third, you have a better shot. He’s seen 864 pitches out there (pitchers aren’t dummies) and produced 9.2 runs above average, a far lesser line. That’s still solid — he’s an MVP candidate — but it’s nowhere near the scorched-earth stuff he manages on inside pitches. Read the rest of this entry »


Chris Bassitt Escaped a Potential Nightmare Scenario

Tuesday night’s White Sox-Athletics game featured one of the 2021 season’s most terrifying moments. In the second inning, White Sox center fielder Brian Goodwin lined a Chris Bassitt cutter back through the box, where it struck the pitcher on the right side of his face. Play stopped for several minutes as Bassitt was tended to by trainers from both teams as shocked and shaken players could only watch. While the 32-year-old righty never lost consciousness, he suffered an orbital fracture and facial lacerations, but fortunately, he appears to have escaped injuries to his brain and eye. While he’ll need surgery, interrupting what’s been a breakout season, he does have a reasonable chance of returning to help the A’s in their quest for a playoff spot.

Goodwin’s shot left the bat at 100 mph (you can see the whole play here, but it’s not for the faint of heart). Bassitt’s head was turned somewhat towards first base as part of his follow-through, which probably spared him even worse damage once he was struck. After remaining down for several minutes, he was eventually carted off the field. The A’s detailed his treatment and injuries in a postgame statement:

Chris was released from Rush University Medical Center last night. He received stitches for two facial lacerations and was diagnosed with a displaced tripod fracture in his right cheek that will require surgery. An exam of his right eye was normal for vision and no other damage is currently noted in the eye or the orbital bone. In addition, a head CT scan revealed no further injury. We are grateful to the White Sox, their medical staff, and the doctors and nurses at Rush for their excellent care. We’ll have more information on Chris as it becomes available.

Read the rest of this entry »


Testing the Depth: The National League

Yesterday, we explored the roster depth of the American League playoff contenders, identifying the strengths and weaknesses that might prove decisive down the stretch for the teams whose playoff odds sit above 10%. Today, we’ll do the same for the National League squads with October ambitions.

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Atlanta’s slow and steady climb into first place has involved a considerable amount of roster management. One side effect of all the maneuvers that have gotten them where they are is significant depth. During Travis d’Arnaud’s absence, the team learned that William Contreras is a capable big league catcher. They filled their considerable outfield holes with Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall, while Cristian Pache, who flamed out early in the season, has finally gotten hot at Triple-A Gwinnett and should be a nice September addition. The Gwinnett infield is packed with players who have big league experience, like Jason Kipnis and Ryan Goins. The return of Huascar Ynoa, with Ian Anderson not far behind, creates a sudden bevy of rotation options. Read the rest of this entry »


Starling Marte Is (Not) Swinging Like Never Before

I was admittedly skeptical of the Starling Marte trade, mostly because I’m enamored with Jesús Luzardo’s potential. It makes one dream. The older Marte did not have such upside; for nearly ten seasons, he’s been a contact-first, speedy outfielder who was good but not great. But Oakland did solve their center field conundrum, and that about justified letting go a pitcher like Luzardo.

And while it’s not feasible to judge a trade a month after its completion, at this moment, the A’s have done exceptionally well. Marte has a 157 wRC+ for them so far and has also swiped 11 bags. Meanwhile, Luzardo has been struggling with command, an issue that’s long clipped his majestic wings. Then again, it’s not as if the latter is now helpless, and it’s not as if the former is now a markedly different player — or is he? To my surprise, Marte had been running a walk rate of 10.2% when I checked in on him; for context, his former career high is a 6.1% clip from 2014. He didn’t start drawing walks after arriving in Oakland — this is a season-long development — but things are different now.

Marte is 32, and veteran hitters don’t magically improve their plate discipline without a measurable change. If you scroll through his FanGraphs page, it’s easy to spot the career-low O-Swing rate — 32.7%, to be exact. Not swinging at balls absolutely results in more walks, and in fact, O-Swing% is the best descriptor we have of walk rate. Here’s how the two line up in scatterplot form, using qualified hitters from 2020–21:

So, is it that simple? As with many baseball-related things, the better answer is more complicated. It’s true that Marte is running a career-low chase rate, but the margin is thin. In 2017, he had an O-Swing rate of 33.0% yet also recorded a walk rate of just 5.9%. This suggests that chasing less hasn’t always led to additional walks. Giving legitimacy to his newfound knack for free passes requires us to search for a true change — a sign of a new approach from someone with years of experience. Read the rest of this entry »


The Rays and Dodgers Each Reach for Some Extra Relief

The trade deadline has passed, but that doesn’t mean teams have stopped scrambling to upgrade or at least patch their pitching staffs with veteran free agents. On Monday, the Rays signed David Robertson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors in more than two years but who recently helped Team USA win a silver medal at the Summer Olympics. On Tuesday, the Dodgers inked Shane Greene to a deal just three days after he was released by the Braves. Both are former Yankees (on the 2014 team) and former All-Stars, and both are on major league contracts. While neither is likely throw a ton of innings, both could pitch their way into throwing significant roles down the stretch.

Both of these teams — which of course met in last year’s World Series — have gotten strong work out of their bullpens to date. Through Monday, the Rays’ bullpen led the majors in WAR (6.2) while the Dodgers’ led the NL (4.4), and both units rank among their respective leagues’ best in nearly all of the other major categories:

Two Strong Bullpens
Team IP Rk ERA Rk FIP Rk K% Rk BB% Rk K-BB% Rk HR/9 Rk
Rays 500.1 1 3.15 1 3.48 1 26.3% 3 8.1% 1 18.2% 2 0.90 2
Dodgers 426.1 10 3.42 3 3.77 2 26.2% 4 10.6% 9 15.6% 4 0.89 3
All statistics through August 16. Rk = rank within AL or NL

With that said, the Rays currently have 17 pitchers on the injured list, including Jeffrey Springs, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn right ACL on Monday; Matt Wisler, who’s dealing with inflammation in his right middle finger; Pete Fairbanks and Ryan Thompson, who are both out with shoulder inflammation; and J.P. Feyereisen, who’s down with biceps tendinitis. Throw in the since-traded Diego Castillo, and the Rays are currently without six of their top eight relievers in terms of total appearances, and five of their top eight (all but Feyereisen) in terms of WAR. All but Springs (and Castillo) are expected to return by the end of the month, but it’s not unreasonable for the Rays to seek out additional depth. Read the rest of this entry »


How Dansby Swanson Increased Contact Without Sacrificing Power

As the Braves have moved up the standings, claiming sole possession of first place in the NL East for the first time this season, the left side of their infield has lead the charge. Granted, the whole team is playing well right now, but through August 16, third baseman Austin Riley and shortstop Dansby Swanson are each in the top-10 in WAR since the All-Star break, at 1.5 apiece.

I wrote about Riley earlier this season, so it makes sense to cover his left-side counterpart now. Plus, Swanson has always been a personal favorite of mine; in January 2020, I wrote about why I thought he was poised to break out ahead of last season. And while Swanson’s offensive numbers — he posted a .274/.345/.464 slash line and a 116 wRC+ — were the best of his career, critics could still point to a raised strikeout rate, high BABIP, and general lack of power. At the time, I said that Swanson’s improved plate discipline might be one sign of better days to come. But with the significant increase in strikeouts and no associated increase in power, it seemed fair to worry about what he’d do at the plate in 2021.

The projection systems were ambivalent on the sustainability of his 2020 as well. ZiPS had Swanson posting a 90 wRC+ this year; Steamer, slightly more optimistic, went with 93. His 2021 stats don’t deviate that much from those projections either: Through 495 plate appearances, he’s slashed .264/.316/.493 with a 110 wRC+ — better than the start of his career, but worse than 2020.  Read the rest of this entry »


The Padres Descend Into Danger

A month ago, things were fine. After the games of July 17, the Padres were 55-40, hanging on to the periphery of the NL West chase. Five games back of the Giants, they didn’t have a ton of hope — our odds gave them a 10.4% chance of winning the division — but they were close enough to dream, and a 5.5-game edge in the Wild Card race meant they had a 92.3% overall chance of reaching the playoffs. Today, that number is down to 46.3%. Yikes!

It didn’t happen overnight. By looking at the slow decline of their chances, I think we might learn a thing or two about what went wrong, and maybe get a sense of what they’ll need to do the rest of the year to avoid plummeting all the way out of the postseason, an outcome that felt downright inconceivable before their recent swoon.

July 24
Record since July 17: 3-3
FG Playoff Odds: 92.3%
Wild Card Lead: 5.5 games

Things were looking up! A huge group of reinforcements had just come off the injured list, as Drew Pomeranz, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Ryan Weathers, and Austin Nola all returned to action. On the field, the team fended off some NL East opposition — Nationals, Braves, and Marlins — and kept pace in the standings. Even better news: the trade deadline was approaching fast, and there’s no one better to add to a team than AJ Preller. The Padres were linked to everyone, and after their offseason frenzy, every rumor seemed credible. The playoffs seemed all but a certainty; the real question was whether they could catch the teams ahead of them in the West. Read the rest of this entry »


Cedric Mullins Talks Hitting

It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Cedric Mullins came out of nowhere, but the 26-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has exceeded expectations in what is essentially his first full big-league season. Swinging exclusively from the left side, the former switch-hitter is slashing a stellar .318/.382/.539 with 20 home runs and a 151 wRC+ heading into Tuesday’s action. Moreover, his 4.7 WAR is tied for third-highest among MLB position players.

Mullins sat down to talk hitting when the Orioles visited Fenway Park this past weekend.

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David Laurila: To start, how would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Cedric Mullins: “I would describe myself as someone whose primary focus is to get on base. I’ve always been a leadoff-type hitter, but I also have some power. When I see a pitch I can handle and am able to put a good swing on it, it might go over the fence. Maybe it will be a double.”

Laurila: What about your setup and swing path?

Mullins: “I’ve made some tweaks. We brought the technology and the robots out and got some numbers on what my swing path looks like and how I could make a few [changes] to be more consistent through the zone. For me, it’s more or less just ‘see the ball, get a pitch to hit, put a good swing on it,’ but at the same time, the game has changed so much. Now you can see what your body is doing on certain things. It’s a matter of being attentive to those.”

Laurila: What is your history with hitting analytics? Read the rest of this entry »