Welcome to the offseason. As is customary, FanGraphs’ annual top 50 free agent rankings come following the World Series. In recent years, we’ve rotated through the writers principally responsible for the list – first Dave Cameron, then Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and, more recently, me. I’m back this year and I’ve brought help: the FanGraphs staff contributed mightily to this piece.

Below, I’ve provided contract estimates and rankings of the winter’s top free agents, along with market-focused breakdowns for the top 25 players. That could be a quick discussion of where a player might sign, what a team might look for, or even statistical analysis masquerading as market analysis – what can I say, I like analyzing players. Meanwhile, a combination of Davy Andrews, Michael Baumann, Jay Jaffe, David Laurila, Eric Longenhagen, Leo Morgenstern, Kiri Oler, Esteban Rivera, Michael Rosen, and Dan Szymborski supplied player-focused breakdowns, which are designed to provide some context for each player at this moment in his career. Special thanks to David Appelman, Jon Becker, Sean Dolinar, Jason Martinez, and Meg Rowley for their help behind the scenes.

The players are ranked in the order in which I prefer them. That’s often the same as ranking them in contract order, but not always. In some cases, I prefer a player I expect will get less money over one who stands to make more. I’ll generally make note of that in the accompanying comment, but just to reiterate, this list isn’t exclusively sorted by descending average annual value or anything like that. Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Eldridge is the top prospect in the San Francisco Giants system thanks largely to the lethality of his power-packed left-handed stroke, an enviable asset that he augments with a patient approach. Drafted 16th overall in 2023 out of Vienna, Virginia’s James Madison High School, the 6-foot-7 first baseman projects, in the words of Eric Longenhagen, as “a middle-of-the-order force.”

What he accomplished in his first full professional season suggests that our lead prospect analyst’s assessment was spot-on. Beginning the year in Low-A and ending it in Triple-A, Eldridge slashed .289/.372/.513 with 23 home runs and a 137 wRC+ over 519 plate appearances. Moreover, he put up those numbers as a teenager. Eldridge didn’t turn 20 until mid-October.

That he was drafted as a two-way player is part of his story. While he hasn’t toed the rubber in a game since receiving his just-shy-of $4M signing bonus, the possibility of his playing both ways was certainly there. (Longenhagen was bearish on the idea, opining in his post-draft recap that the “two-way experiment should eventually lead him to full-time hitting.”)

His potential as a pitcher was the first subject I broached when speaking to Edington at the Arizona Fall League, where he is suiting up for the Scottsdale Scorpions. Why is he now a hitter only? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s not hard to remember who had the biggest hits of the postseason, nor is it hard to remember which superstar sluggers came up short. But what about the components of offense that don’t take place at the plate? This past October had no shortage of riveting plays on the basepaths, so I thought it would be fun to look back at some of the most skillful baserunning, some of the least skillful baserunning, and either way, some of the most consequential baserunning plays of the 2024 playoffs.

To calculate baserunning value, the bright minds at Baseball Savant have developed a system that estimates runs above or below average for 10 different categories of “advance opportunities” on balls in play. There is certainly room for disagreement with the way the automatic system evaluates plays, but these numbers are a great jumping-off point. That’s especially true when it comes to bad plays, for which there is a clear delineation between the most harmful baserunning decisions and more forgivable mistakes.

Six runners ran into an out that cost their team 0.80 runs or more this postseason. No other baserunning play scored worse than -0.20 runner runs. Here’s a chart and a video compilation of those six disastrous decisions. I’ve also included Savant’s seventh-most detrimental baserunning play of the postseason for comparison:

The decisions by Bohm and Malloy to try for second, as well as third base coach Luis Rojas’ choice to wave Torres home, were all varying degrees of justifiable. That’s not to say any of them were smart plays, but it’s important to remember that getting thrown out doesn’t necessarily mean a baserunner made a mistake. A player who never gets thrown out on the bases isn’t taking enough risks.

Stanton’s out at home is at the top of the list for a reason. It was tough to watch him lumbering down the third base line in the moment, and it’s even harder to watch in hindsight when I know the outcome. It makes me feel like I’m watching a horror movie, but instead of wanting to scream at Stanton to stay out of the basement, I want to tell him to hold up no matter what Rojas was signaling. I could say the same of Perez, who is every bit as slow as Stanton. Juan Soto made a terrific throw, but all the same, third base coach Vance Wilson had no business sending Perez on that play. As for the inelegant slide into home, that’s all on Perez.

That being said, I hesitate to call either of those plays the worst example of baserunning in the postseason. For one thing, it’s clear from the clips that their coaches were more to blame. What’s more, it would be pretty boring of me to pick one of the biggest, slowest players in the game as the culprit behind the worst baserunning flub of October. So that brings me to Winker in Game 1 of the NLCS.

Here’s that play one more time:

By my count, Winker made three baserunning blunders in a very short time. His first mistake was taking too far of a turn around second base. His second mistake was realizing his first mistake and briefly turning back toward second before changing his mind once again and continuing toward third. His third mistake was giving up far too easily. He didn’t bolt for third and try to slide under Max Muncy’s tag, nor did he force the Dodgers to run him down, which might have given Jose Iglesias a chance to reach second base. Rather than putting up a fight, he basically just admitted defeat.

The Dodgers went on to win that game 9-0. Winker’s poor baserunning was hardly the only thing that did the Mets in. Still, if he’d held up at second base, it would have been the only time in the entire game the Mets had a runner in scoring position with no outs. Instead, Winker killed what little momentum the Mets almost mustered. So, of the 513 ball-in-play baserunning events that Baseball Savant scored during the playoffs, this gets my vote as the very worst of the lot.

I also went back and watched every caught stealing and pickoff play of the postseason to find the worst bit of baserunning that didn’t come on a ball in play. None of the straight-up caught stealing plays stand out to me as particularly egregious, although I made a compilation video so you can judge for yourselves. The compilation also includes Matt Vierling getting caught at second — a play that technically wasn’t considered as a stolen base attempt, presumably because it would have been officially scored a wild pitch if he were safe:

As for the pickoffs, all four look embarrassing for the baserunners. Pickoffs almost always do. Here they are, and I apologize in advance that the clip of Trevino’s pickoff on MLB Film Room is incomplete. But it’s not like you can’t extrapolate what’s going to happen. I also included Anthony Rizzo’s TOOTBLAN is Game 2 of the ALCS. Like the Vierling play, it technically wasn’t scored as a pickoff because it started with a ball in the dirt, but it’s close enough for our purposes:

The clip of Francisco Lindor is a bad look for the typically excellent baserunner. The camera shows that Lindor misread pitcher Brent Honeywell and started to take off for second base far too soon. Honeywell made him pay. Rizzo’s rundown was embarrassing, too, although after seeing the way Winker responded in a somewhat similar situation, I’ll give Rizzo credit for making a bit more of an effort.

The very worst of all those caught stealing and pickoff plays came just before Rizzo’s slip-up. Two batters earlier, Jazz Chisholm Jr. also ran into an out at second, and this one was a proper pickoff. It was the only instance out of all the caught stealing and pickoff plays I showed you in which the runner was already safely in scoring position with no outs. There was little reason for Chisholm to take such an aggressive lead toward third base. (Apparently the Yankees were planning to attempt a double steal, but Chisholm took off too early). According to Baseball Reference WPA, Chisholm’s pickoff was the most harmful caught stealing or pickoff play of the postseason (-0.076 WPA). It was also, by far, the worst caught stealing or pickoff play by championship Win Probability Added, reducing the Yankees’ chances of winning the World Series by 1.21%. And yet, I can’t blame Chisholm too much for his aggressive leads because, as you’re about to see, he was also responsible for some of the very best baserunning plays we saw this past October.

It’s significantly harder to identify the best baserunning plays than the worst. Simply put, it’s much easier to find plays in which a runner ran into an out than to separate the best advancement decisions from more commonplace ones. A runner goes from first to third on a single almost every game; when is that good baserunning as opposed to routine execution? All this to say, there aren’t any positive baserunning plays worth upwards of 0.80 runner runs on Baseball Savant. The top three plays of the postseason each added 0.25 runs of value. The next six came in at +0.24 runs. That said, these data still offer a good jumping-off point for this exercise.

I went digging for the top 10 baserunning plays on balls in play this postseason and came back with 11 due to a tie at the bottom of the list. Here are those 11 plays in chart form:

I wasn’t blown away by any of the three plays with a +0.25 run value. All three were the result of at least one defensive miscue and none involved a competitive throw. Understanding how to take advantage of poor defense is certainly a skill, as is moving fast enough to take an extra base without the defense even bothering to make a throw. Much like how the best defenders make tough plays look routine, the best baserunners can make low-percentage advancements look easy. Still, take a look at these three clips, and I’m sure you’ll forgive me for skipping past them as I try to find the best baserunning plays of the playoffs.

I was much more impressed with a few of the plays that had a +0.24 and +0.23 run value. But let’s start with the five that didn’t turn my head. Lindor made a nice slide to secure a double in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, but he was only safe because Turang couldn’t hold onto the ball to apply the tag. Meanwhile, Stott bolted his way to an RBI triple in Game 2 of the NLDS, but everyone was safe without a competitive throw.

Moving on to the NLCS, Ohtani scored from first on a Mookie Betts double in Game 1, but he did so without a throw. Indeed, the Mets pretty clearly knew he was going to score well before the ball landed in the cutoff man’s glove. Then, in Game 4 of the NLCS, Marte doubled because Betts badly misread a groundball to right field. Finally, Volpe earned 0.23 runs of baserunning credit for a double in the World Series, but he would have been out if Lux hadn’t lost the baseball. Here’s a compilation of those five plays for your viewing pleasure:

Now, let’s get to the three plays I really liked. Back in the NLDS, Lux made a great read on an Enrique Hernández single to shallow center and sprinted from first to third, beating Jackson Merrill’s throw. Meadows also made a terrific read on a pop fly in the ALDS, turning what could have been a routine out into a double. Here’s what those two plays looked like:

However, of these 11 baserunning plays, one clearly stood above the rest. Here is Chisholm scoring from second on an Alex Verdugo single in all its glory:

This was terrific television from start to end. The mind games going on between Chisholm and Michael Lorenzen were almost palpable. The footwork dance battle between Chisholm and Bobby Witt Jr. was delightful. Chisholm’s decision not to slide could have been disastrous, but instead it worked out perfectly (although the home plate umpire might disagree). And the greater context of the game only makes the play more thrilling. Chisholm was only at second base because of a controversial safe call on a stolen base earlier in the inning. The umpire on the field called him safe. The umpires in New York found the replay evidence inconclusive, even though it seemed pretty clear to the average viewer that Chisholm was out. While a less courageous baserunner might have exercised more caution after surviving by the skin of his teeth, Chisholm remained aggressive. It paid off.

According to Baseball Reference WPA, Verdugo’s single was the 10th most valuable ball in play (i.e. non-homer) of the postseason. A few of those nine other plays involved good baserunning, but there were none, I’d argue, in which good baserunning was quite as essential to the shift in win probability. Take a look for yourself. (Side note: While putting this compilation together, I learned that MLB film room won’t let you make a video with the word “balls” in the title. Seems like a design flaw.)

So, Chisholm gets my vote for the best ball-in-play baserunning play of the postseason. And that’s not all. He also provided the two most consequential stolen bases of the postseason, according to Baseball Reference WPA and cWPA. Not only that, but those two stolen bases came three pitches apart in the top of the 10th inning of Game 1 of the World Series. Another three pitches later, he scored what would have been the winning run if not for Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam. Even without a compilation video of the other 60 stolen bases this October, I feel confident giving Chisholm the crown for the best stolen base sequence of the playoffs. Here’s a look at the complete series of events:

None of the plays I wrote about today will be remembered for nearly as long as Freeman’s big hits, Gerrit Cole’s valiant efforts, or the poor defense that ultimately sunk the Yankees in Game 5. But I love writing about baserunning precisely because it gets far less attention than most other aspects of the game. I’m glad I had the chance to look back on all this action on the basepaths before we all turn our attention to the offseason ahead.

Did you enjoy that thrilling World Series clincher Wednesday night? Still glowing from Walker Buehler stomping in from the bullpen like Ricky Vaughn? Still got your protractor and T-square on your desk as you try to figure out if Gerrit Cole could’ve beaten Mookie Betts to first base with two outs in the fifth? I know I need a moment to decompress from all the excitement.

You know who doesn’t? Alex Anthopoulos and Perry Minasian, who couldn’t wait 24 hours to execute the first trade of the offseason. And this wasn’t some bit of bookkeeping minutiae, a my-garbage-for-your-trash trade to clear a 40-man roster spot before the Rule 5 draft protection deadline. This was a trade of big leaguers, and fairly noteworthy ones at that: The Braves are sending outfielder Jorge Soler to the Angels in exchange for right-hander Griffin Canning. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the Arizona Fall League calendar when the weather has officially shifted toward autumn, which makes being at the ballpark during the day about as close to heaven as one can get. The return of great weather also means the return of the Valley’s snowbirds, the (usually retired) folks who only live here during the pleasant time of year. The highways are suddenly very full again, and I’ve become a crabby baby about driving all the way to the West Valley for day games that then force me to drive home in rush hour traffic made more harrowing by the uptick in people. Opportunities to double up at East Valley stadiums are now golden, and I’ll be at Salt River and then Mesa each of the next couple of days.

We’re now deep enough into the AFL schedule that I’m starting to shift my in-person scouting focus toward hitters, especially when pitchers I’ve already seen a couple of times are in the game. It means spending more time down the baselines rather than behind home plate and (probably) more hitter-focused pieces like this for the next couple of weeks. But for now… Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Pepiot was a highly regarded prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization when he was first featured here at FanGraphs in June 2021. Then 23 years old and pitching in Double-A, the right-hander out of Butler University discussed his signature pitch, a changeup that our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen had likened to Devin Williams’ high-spin Airbender.

Pepiot is now with the Tampa Bay Rays, having been acquired from Los Angeles along with Jonny DeLuca in exchange for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot last December. He has also emerged as an established big league starter. Getting his first extended opportunity after making 17 appearances over the two previous seasons, he made 26 starts, posting a 3.60 ERA and 3.95 FIP over 130 innings.

Three-plus years after our initial conversation, I sat down with Pepiot on the final weekend of the 2024 regular season, this time to touch on each of his five pitches.

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David Laurila: What is your full repertoire right now?

Ryan Pepiot: “Four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, cutter, and a curveball that I’ll throw occasionally.” Read the rest of this entry »

I’m trying out a new format for our managerial report cards this postseason. In the past, I went through every game from every manager, whether they played 22 games en route to winning the World Series or got swept out of the Wild Card round. To be honest, I hated writing those brief blurbs. No one is all that interested in the manager who ran out the same lineup twice, or saw his starters get trounced and used his best relievers anyway because the series is so short. This year, I’m sticking to the highlights, and grading only the managers who survived until at least their League Championship series. I already covered Stephen Vogt and the Guardians. Today, I’m looking at Carlos Mendoza and the Mets.

My goal is to evaluate each manager in terms of process, not results. If you bring in your best pitcher to face their best hitter in a huge spot, that’s a good decision regardless of the outcome. Try a triple steal with the bases loaded only to have the other team make four throwing errors to score three runs? I’m probably going to call that a blunder even though it worked out. Managers do plenty of other things — getting team buy-in for new strategies or unconventional bullpen usage behind closed doors is a skill I find particularly valuable — but as I have no insight into how that’s accomplished or how each manager differs, I can’t exactly assign grades for it.

I’m also purposefully avoiding vague qualitative concerns like “trusting your veterans because they’ve been there before.” Playoff coverage lovingly focuses on clutch plays by proven performers, but Mark Vientos and Jackson Chourio were also great this October. Forget trusting your veterans; the playoffs are about trusting your best players. Francisco Lindor is important because he’s great, not because of the number of playoff series he’s appeared in. There’s nothing inherently good about having been around a long time; when I’m evaluating decisions, “but he’s a veteran” just doesn’t enter my thought process. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »

There are a lot of reasons to watch this World Series. There’s the history, the star power, the drama. We’ve had Ice Cube concerts and walk-off grand slams, controversial pitching decisions and defensive gems. I’m going to tell you a secret, though: None of those things has been my favorite part so far. The two preeminent strike zone controllers in the entire sport are facing off, and a showdown between Juan Soto and Mookie Betts is always worth watching.

Game 2 was a wonderful encapsulation of just what I’m talking about. Soto came up first, and he engaged Yoshinobu Yamamoto right away. Soto has a plan in every at-bat. It’s quite often the same plan: find a fastball, preferably high or inside, and hit it for a home run. He got started right away with a rip at a first-pitch fastball:

Advantage Yamamoto – but not that much of an advantage. Soto took two straight curveballs low – it’s really hard to fool him. Then Yamamoto came back with another fastball and Soto tried to hit it to Pasadena:

Read the rest of this entry »

Ethan Salas is one of baseball’s top prospects. Currently playing for the Arizona Fall League’s Peoria Javelinas, the left-handed-hitting catcher is not only No. 7 on The Board, he won’t turn 19 until next summer. Signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela by the San Diego Padres in January 2023, Salas is both precociously talented and mature beyond his years.

He is also still figuring things out. The 6-foot-2, 205-pound backstop was refreshingly candid on that front when I spoke to him on my recent visit to the AFL. More advanced defensively than he is with the bat — a scouting assessment he agrees with — Salas readily admits that there areas in which he needs to improve.

“I would say more consistency on game management stuff would be the biggest one right now,” said Salas, who has caught only 870 professional innings. “Calling pitches, situations in the game, seeing things before they happen, how to prevent big innings. I need to be more efficient in those areas.”

Salas’s physical attributes are undeniably plus, which brings us to an interesting aspect of how he operates behind the dish. It came to the fore when I asked if he is one-knee-down or more traditional in his setup. Read the rest of this entry »

What a game. This series has been so hyped that a scoreless tie through four innings felt like a letdown. But then the party got started. In the end, we got everything we wanted: stars, steals, defensive gems and gaffes, and even a walk-off home run to evoke Kirk Gibson. But my beat is writing about managerial decisions, so let’s get a quick 1,100 or so words in on that before it’s time for Game 2. Specifically, I’m interested in the bottom half of the 10th inning in Game 1 of the World Series, and the decisions that led to Freddie Freeman’s colossal walk-off grand slam and lifted the Dodgers to a 6-3 win over the Yankees.

Using Nestor

Hated it. The pitch for why it’s a bad decision is pretty easy, right? Nestor Cortes hadn’t pitched in a month, a trusted lefty reliever was also warm, and the scariest possible guy was due up. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where this was the lowest-risk move. There’s not much I can say about the pitch-level data, because he threw only two pitches, but there are myriad reasons to opt for a reliever over a starter in that situation.

A lot of Cortes’s brilliance is in his variety. He throws a ton of different pitches. He has a funky windup – several funky windups, in fact. He changes speeds and locations. That’s how a guy who sits 91-92 mph with his fastball keeps succeeding in the big leagues. But many of those advantages are blunted when you don’t have feel for the game.
Read the rest of this entry »